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7.4 Parts b), c), and d) of Exercise 7.3 dealt with joint probabilities.
7.6 An example of a joint probability is the probability that your town will decide to
have a fireworks display this summer and that it will rain on that night.
7.7 What is the probability that you will feel better about your life given that you seek
psychological counseling? The research hypothesis is that those who seek help when they
need it feel better about life than those who refuse to seek help.
7.8 The probability that the mother will be looking at the child is 2/24 = .083. The
probability that the child will look at the mother is 3/24 = .125. The probability that they
will look at each other at the same time is .083*.125 = .01.
Point out to students that this uses the multiplicative law applied to
independent events. The answer would not be correct if the probabilities
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are not independent—e.g. if mom looks because the kid is trying to get her
attention.
7.9 The mother and child are both sleeping for 11 hours, so the probabilities must be
based on the remaining 13 hours.
p(mom looking) = 2/13 = .154; p(baby looking) = 3/13 = .231; p(both looking) =
.154*.231 = .036.
7.10 To calculate the probability of an accident given that the driver has been drinking,
we would have to collect a very large pool of drivers who have been drinking (having
first determined how to define that), and then count the number who are involved in an
accident (again carefully defined).
7.11 We would expect 3.33 percent of the fliers to end up in the trash if the message and
the behavior were independent. In fact, Geller et al. found 4.5 percent of those fliers in
the trash. This may look like a very small difference, but given the number of fliers that
were handed out, it is a reliable one. It would appear that having a message on a flier
increases its probability of being disposed of properly.
7.14 Two examples of discrete variables are your final letter grade in this course, and the
number of siblings you have.
7.15 If we assume that we know nothing about the applicant, the probability of their
being admitted is the probability that they fall above the 80th percentile (which equals
.20) times the probability that they will be admitted if they do, which is 10/100 = .10. The
probability is .20*.10 = .02. Alternatively, we know that 10 out of 500 are admitted, so
we could take the probability as being 10/500 = .02, which is the same thing.
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The probability associated with z = -.21 is .5832.
7.20 Compare the probability of dropping out of school, ignoring the ADDSC score,
with the probability of dropping out given that ADDSC in elementary school exceeded
some value (e.g., 66).
7.23 If there is no discrimination in housing, then a person’s race and whether or not
they are offered a particular unit of housing are independent events. We could calculate
the probability that a particular unit (or a unit in a particular section of the city) will be
offered to anyone in a specific income group. We can also calculate the probability that
the customer is a member of an ethnic minority. We can then calculate the probability of
that person being shown the unit assuming independence and compare that answer
against the actual proportion of times a member of an ethnic minority was offered such a
unit.
7.25 The data again would appear to show that the U. S. Attorneys are more likely to
request the death penalty when the victim was White than when the victim was Non-
white. (This finding is statistically significant, though we won’t address that question
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until Chapter 19.)
7.26 The risks are given in the table of Exercise 7.25. The probability that the U. S.
attorney would seek the death penalty when the victim was white is .726, whereas it is
only .630 when the victim is non-white. The risk ratio would be 1.15, indicating that the
probability of seeking the death penalty is higher when the victim is white. The odds are
202/76 = 2.66, and 388/228 = 1.70, and the odds ratio is 2.66/1.70 = 1.56, meaning that
the odds of facing the death penalty are 1.56 times greater when the victim was white.
7.27 In this situation we begin with the hypothesis that African Americans are fairly
represented in the pool. If so, we would expect 0.43% of the pool of 2124 people from
which juries are drawn are African American. That comes out to be an expectation of
9.13 people. But the pool actually only had 4 African Americans. We would not expect
exactly 9 people—we might have 7 or 8. But 4 sounds awfully small That is such an
unlikely event if the pool is fair that we would probably conclude that the pool is not a
fair representation of the population of Vermont. An important point here is that this is a
conditional probability. If the pool is fair the probability of this event is only .05—an
unlikely result.
7.3 AIDS testing is a topic of considerable importance to students—at least it should be.
There is a wealth of information on the web that instructors or students can search out to
bring probability issues alive. A good place to begin is
http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/course/Syllabi/UCSD/section3_3.html. The
following is a short excerpt taken from that site. It is a great way to get students to see
some simple probabilities. It also allows them to work with conditional probabilities in
an unusual way.
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“1. Suppose that if a person has the antibodies, the probability of a positive test
is 99.9%, and that if the person does not have the antibodies the probability of a
negative test is 99%. Assume that 1.5 million out of 250 million Americans have
HIV antibodies. If a subject tests positive for the HIV antibodies, what is the
probability that he or she actually has HIV antibodies?
7.4 Exercise 7.24 was specifically designed to get students thinking about probability.
You can use it as the basis of a class discussion.
7.5 We often see conspiracy theories in the news about the assassination of President
Kennedy or some other public figure. Recently someone posted a note to Edstat-L (or
sci.stat.edu) concerning a book he was reading. The author of the book had listed 15
things that were “wrong” about the Kennedy assassination, ranging from cars out of order
in the motorcade to motorcycles out of position and a lack of immediate response by
officials. The writer of the message was concerned about the use of statistics. He wrote
“(The book’s author) then goes on to state this could not be merely "bad luck" and
assigns each "(indicator)...an improbability of 1 in 10 to their occurrence by chance. He
goes on to … suppose each (is) an independent event but (and I'll quote him directly)
‘...if we take only eight or nine of these events, their improbability of occurring by
chance is only 1 in 100,000,000 to 1 in 1,000,000,000, (and) hypotheses in science are
rejected when their improbability equals or exceeds 1 in 20.’”
7.7 I chose to use data on the death penalty for the last two exercises because I wanted
students to see that things like risk and odds ratios are not just for “boring stuff” like the
risk of lung cancer—which most students are sure that they will never get. There is a
wealth of data on the Internet, but I have relied on official reports and research studies
because of the continued controversy.
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tumblerful of home-brewed ale or a glass or two of wine daily; but, as
I before remarked, in the generality of cases, either toast and water,
or barley-water and milk, for the first week after a confinement, is
the best beverage.
607. After a week, either a tumblerful of mild home-brewed ale or
of London or Dublin porter, where it agrees, should be taken at
dinner; but if ale or porter be given, wine ought not to be allowed. It
would be well to keep either to ale or to porter, as may best agree
with the patient, and not to mix them, nor to take porter at one meal
and ale at another.
608. Barreled, in this case, is superior to bottled porter, as it
contains less fixed air. On the whole, however, I should prefer home-
brewed ale to porter. Either old, or very new, or very strong ale,
ought not, at this time, to be given.
609. Great care is required in the summer, as the warm weather is
apt to turn the beer acid. Such beer would not only disagree with the
mother, but would disorder the milk, and thus the infant. A nursing
mother sometimes endeavors to correct sour porter or beer by
putting soda in it. This plan is objectionable, as the constant taking
of soda is weakening to the stomach and impoverishing to the blood.
Moreover, it is impossible, by any artificial expedient, to make either
tart beer or porter sound and wholesome, and fit for a nursing
mother. If beer or porter be sour, it is not fit to drink, and ought
either to be thrown away or should be given to the pigs.
610. Sometimes neither wine nor malt liquor agrees; then, either
new milk and water, or equal parts of fresh milk and barley-water,
will generally be found the best beverage. If milk should also
disagree, either barley-water, or toast and water, ought to be
substituted.
CHANGE OF ROOM.
611. The period at which a lying-in woman should leave her room
will, of course, depend upon the season, and upon the state of her
health. She may, after the first fourteen days, usually change the
chamber for the drawing-room, provided it be close at hand; if it be
not, she ought, during the day, to remove—be either wheeled or
carried in a chair—from one bedroom to another, as change of
apartment will then be desirable. The windows, during her absence
from the room, ought to be thrown wide open; and the bedclothes, in
order that they may be well ventilated, should be thrown back. She
should, at the end of three weeks, take her meals with the family; but
even then she ought occasionally, during the day, to lie on the sofa to
rest her back.
613. A mother ought not, unless she intend to devote herself to her
baby, to undertake to suckle him. She must make up her mind to
forego the so-called pleasures of fashionable life. There ought, in a
case of this kind, to be no half-and-half measures; she should either
give up her helpless babe to the tender mercies of a wet-nurse, or she
must devote her whole time and energy to his welfare—to the
greatest treasure that God hath given her.
614. If a mother be blessed with health and strength, it is most
unnatural and very cruel for her not to suckle her child—
“Connubial fair! whom no fond transport warms
To lull your infant in maternal arms;
Who, blessed in vain with tumid bosoms, hear
His tender wailings with unfeeling ear;
The soothing kiss and milky rill deny
To the sweet pouting lip and glistening eye!
Ah! what avails the cradle’s damask roof,
The eider bolster, and embroidered woof!
Oft hears the gilded couch unpitied plains,
And many a tear the tasseled cushion stains!
No voice so sweet attunes his cares to rest,
So soft no pillow as his mother’s breast!—
Thus charmed to sweet repose, when twilight hours
Shed their soft influence on celestial bowers,
The cherub Innocence, with smile divine,
Shuts his white wings, and sleeps on beauty’s shrine.”[111]
615. Oh, if a mother did but know the joy that suckling her infant
imparts, she would never for one moment contemplate having a wet-
nurse to rob her of that joy—
“The starting beverage meets the thirsty lip;
’Tis joy to yield it, and ’tis joy to sip.”[112]
THE BREAST.
617. As soon as the patient has recovered from the fatigue of the
labor—that is to say, in about four or six hours—attention ought to be
paid, more especially in a first confinement, to the bosoms.
618. In a first confinement, there is, until the third day, but very
little milk; although there is usually on that day, and for two or three
days afterward, a great deal of swelling, of hardness, of distention,
and of uneasiness of the breasts, in consequence of which, in a first
confinement, both care and attention are needed.
619. If there be milk in the breast, which may be readily
ascertained by squeezing the nipple between the finger and the
thumb, the infant should, at first, be applied—not frequently, as
some do, but at considerable intervals, say until the milk be properly
secreted—every four hours; when the milk flows, the child ought to
be applied more frequently, but still at stated times.
620. To wash away any viscid mucus from the nipple, or any stale
perspiration from the bosom, let the breasts and the nipples, before
applying the baby, be first sponged with a little warm water, and then
be dried with a warm, dry, soft napkin; for some infants are so
particular that unless the breasts and the nipples be perfectly free
from mucus and from perspiration, they will not suck. If after the
above cleansing process there be any difficulty in making him take
the bosom, smear a little cream on the nipple, and then immediately
apply him to it.
621. If the breasts be full, hard, knotty, and painful, which they
generally are two or three days after a first confinement, let them be
well but tenderly rubbed every four hours, either with the best olive
oil (a little of which should, before using it, be previously warmed, by
putting a little of the oil in a teacup on the hob by the fire) or with
equal parts of olive oil and of eau de Cologne, which should be well
shaken up in a bottle every time before it be used.
622. On the third day, more especially after a first confinement,
the breasts are apt to become very much swollen, painful, and
distended. If such be the case, it might be necessary, for a few days,
to have them drawn, once or twice daily, by a woman who makes it
her business, and who is usually called either a breast-drawer, or, in
vulgar parlance, a suck-pap. A clean, sober, healthy, respectable
woman ought to be selected. There is, in nearly every large town, one
generally to be found who is at the head of her profession. Such a one
should be chosen.
623. If the bosoms be more than usually large and painful, in
addition to assiduously using the above liniment, apply to the
breasts, in the intervals, young cabbage-leaves, which should be
renewed after each rubbing. Before applying them, the “veins” of the
leaves, with a sharp knife, must be cut smooth, level with the leaf. It
will require several, as the whole of the breast ought to be covered.
The cabbage-leaves will be found both cooling and comfortable. Each
bosom should then be nicely supported with a soft folded silk
handkerchief, going under each breast and suspending it; each
handkerchief should then be tied at the back of the neck, thus acting
as a kind of sling.
624. The patient ought not, while the breasts are full and
uncomfortable, to drink much fluid, as it would only encourage a
larger secretion of milk.
625. When the milk is at “its height,” as it is called, she ought every
morning, for a couple of mornings, to take a little cooling medicine—
a Seidlitz powder—and, every four hours, the following effervescing
mixture:
Take of—Bicarbonate of Potash, one drachm and a half;
Distilled Water, eight ounces:
635. A nursing mother ought to have her dress, more especially her
stays, made loose and comfortable.
636. A gathered breast sometimes arises from the bones of the
stays pressing into the bosom; I should, therefore, recommend her to
have the bones removed.
637. If a lady be not in the habit of wearing a flannel waistcoat, she
ought at least to have her bosoms covered with flannel, taking care
that there be a piece of soft linen over the nipples.
638. I should advise a nursing mother to provide herself with a
waterproof nursing apron, which may be procured either at any
baby-linen establishment or at an india-rubber warehouse.
DIETARY.
656. Good habits are as easily formed as bad ones. A mother, when
in bed, ought always to suckle her child while she is lying down. The
sitting up in bed, during such times, is a fruitful source of
inflammation and of gathering of the breasts. Of course, during the
day the sitting-up position is the best. Let me caution her not to
nurse her baby in a half-sitting and half-lying posture; it will spoil
her figure, disturb her repose, and weaken her back.
THE TEMPER.
There is an old and a true saying, “that it is the stomach that makes
the man,” and if the man, the woman:
“Your stomach makes your fabric roll,
Just as the bias rules the bowl.”[117]
OCCUPATION.
AILMENTS, Etc.