FINAL Updated - Report - Climate Change Impacts-17.05.2020

RAPID ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE ON NATIONAL PARKS OF UGANDA
FINAL REPORT
Procurement Number: UWA/ Cons SRVS/2018-19/00684
MARCH 2020
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This study was funded by the Uganda Wildlife Authority (UWA).
The field Park teams provided valuable information and data that helped to shape
this report without whom it would have been difficult to progress.
The UWA staff from the UWA headquarters and National Parks (NPs) are
acknowledged for guiding this study and providing insightful comments from
inception until completion of this report. We highly appreciate their input.
In a special way we acknowledge the contributions of Richard Kapere, The Manager
Planning, that mobilized respondents to interact with the consulting team.
We thank all the respondents that unreservedly provided the information that
shaped the final copy of this report.
By
DR. Lawrence J. B. Orikiriza and Mr. Keneth Tumwebaze
Email: orikirizalaw@gmail.com; ktumwebbaze2013@gmail.com
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This report is intended to cover the following aspects: Observed climate change
impacts in the national parks and the likely climate change impacts in future -
trends of these impacts. The report further covers the vulnerability of the parks in
terms of exposure, sensitivity and adaptation to climate change impacts. It
concludes with recommended actions for building more resilience for the national
parks to deal with impacts of climate change.
To achieve the above, the observed climate change impacts in the national parks
of Uganda have been documented in clear cut ways to guide less technical teams
to understand the breadth of these impacts. National Park vulnerability has also
been assessed on the basis of conservation targets to give a picture on what
ecosystem aspects are at stake. In order to understand climate change inclusion in
the mainstream planning, a review of how much climate change is addressed in the
general management plans was done to form a basis for recommendations in
conservation planning.
There is convincing evidence that the critical ecosystems in the National Parks in
Uganda are changing probably due to climatic and non-climatic stressors. Some of
the observed climatic change impacts include: Ecosystem changes, Wildfires,
Receding snow on the Rwenzori Mountain.
In terms of Vulnerability, forested parks such as Kibale National, Bwindi

Impenetrable are less vulnerable to climate change impacts. This is largely due to
the fact that tropical forests tend to regulate local climate and keep the available
ecosystem relatively stable. On the other hand, national parks that are of
Savannah type such as Queen Elizabeth and Murchison Falls are more vulnerable to
impacts of climate change.
It is recommended that UWA establishes a socio-ecological monitoring unit that

will set permanent observation study points in the National Park to obtain very
dependable data for conservation planning.
Table of Contents
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS......................................................................................................................... 2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...........................................................................................................................3
1. CONTEXT........................................................................................................................................8
2. BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY.....................................................................................................9
3. SALIENT ASPECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE DISCOURSE AT INTERNATIONAL, REGIONAL, SUB

REGIONAL, NATIONAL AND LOCAL LEVELS..................................................................................... 10
3.1. International....................................................................................................................... 10
3.2. Sub Regional Initiatives................................................................................................. 11
3.3 National Initiatives................................................................................................................. 11
4. PURPOSE...................................................................................................................................... 12
3.0. METHODOLOGY.......................................................................................................................12
3.1. Study Area...........................................................................................................................12
3.2. Approach............................................................................................................................. 13
3.3. Tools..................................................................................................................................... 13
3.4. Methods............................................................................................................................... 13
3.4.1. Data collection methods............................................................................................... 14
3.2.3 Resilience and adaptation against Climate Change Impacts.................................... 17
4.0 FINDINGS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON NATIONAL PARKS....................................... 19
4.1 General Account of Climate Change and Impacts in the National Parks...................... 19
4.1.1 QUEEN ELIZABETH NATIONAL PARK (QENP) - Climate Change Impacts.....................19
4.1.2 RWENZORI MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK (RMNP) - Observed Climate Change Impacts.
20
4.1.3 KIBALE NATIONAL PARK (KNP) Observed Climate Change Impacts............................ 22
4.1.4 SEMULIKI NATIONAL PARK (SNP) Observed Climate Change Related Impacts.......... 23
4.1.5 LAKE MBURO NATIONLA PARK (LMNP) Observed Climate Change Related Impacts.....
.............................................................................................................................................. 23
4.1.6 KIDEPO VALLEY NATIONAL PARK (KVNP) Observed Climate Change Related Impacts.
.............................................................................................................................................. 24
4.1.7 MOUNT ELGON NATIONAL PARK (MENP) Observed Climate Change Related Impacts.
.............................................................................................................................................. 25
4.1.8 MURCHISON FALLS NATIONAL PARK (MFNP) - Observed Climate Change Related
Impacts .............................................................................................................................................. 27
4.1.9 BWINDI IMPENETRABLE NATIONAL PARK (BINP) Observed Climate Change Related
Impacts .............................................................................................................................................. 29
4.1.10 MGAHINGA GORILLA NATIONAL PARK (MGNP) Observed Climate Change Related
Impacts .............................................................................................................................................. 30
4.2 Climate change trends over years and projections in Uganda-......................................31
4.2.1 Current trends.................................................................................................................... 31
4.2.1.1 Temperature....................................................................................................................31
4.2.1.2 Precipitation................................................................................................................... 31
4.2.2 Projections.......................................................................................................................... 32
4.2.2.1 Temperature....................................................................................................................32
4.2.2.2 Precipitation................................................................................................................... 33
5.0 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT................................................................................................60
5.1 Exploring the possibility of EbA in National Park............................................................. 60
5.2 Vulnerability assessment for National Parks......................................................................60
5.4 Recommendations for conservation planning for the management of wildlife

resources............................................................................................................................................. 79
6.0 References...............................................................................................................................81
7.0 Appendix I: CONSULTATIVE MEETING GUIDE/TOOL...........................................................83
5
List of Tables
Table 1 observed and projected temperature and precipitation 34
Table 2 IUCN Red listed endangered plant species in the protected areas 57
Table 3 Nationally Red listed endangered plant species in the protected areas 57
Table 4 Climate change and Plant species invasiveness 58
Table 5 Possibility for possibility of EbA in National Park 60
Table 6 National Parks and their conservation Targets 62
Table 7 Levels of exposure in the National Parks 64
Table 8 National Parks and Sensitivity 67
Table 10 National Parks and Ecosystem Services 71
Table 11 Vulnerability profile of the National Parks 72
Table 12 Principles and criteria of climate change-robustness 76
Table 13. Classification of performance of climate change-robustness principles as per rate

and degree of accordance 77
Table 14 Recommendations for conservation planning in National Park 79
List of Figures
Figure 1 Map of Uganda showing the ten National Parks 12
Figure 2 Elements of the vulnerability assessment framework 14
Figure 3 glacier status in 1953 by Belgian Natural Institute on left and 2008 by EARPO/S. F
Haarklau &Marc Languy on right seen on the same position of Lac Gracis 20
Figure 4 Plot of changes in glacial areal extent on the Central Rwenzori Massif since 1906
21
Figure 5 Picture of one of the crater lakes in the park showing reducing water levels 23
Figure 7 Fire Sensitivity Map for L. Mburo National Park, 2015 37
6
Figure 12 Fire Sensitivity Map for Kidepo Valley National Park, 2015 42
Figure 13 13 Fire Sensitivity Map Kidepo Valley National Park, 2016 43
Figure 14 Fire Sensitivity Map Kidepo Valley National Park, 2017 44
Figure 17 Fire Sensitivity Map of Murchison Falls National Park, 2015 47
Figure 22 Fire Sensitivity Map of Kibale National Park, 2015 52
Figure 27 Generalized climate change adaptation framework from Glick et al. (2011). 61
Figure 28 Relation of adaptive capacity and vulnerability 61
Figure 29 Communities around the national Parks and Ecosystem services 71
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1. CONTEXT
Uganda Wildlife Authority (UWA) is a semi-autonomous statutory body established
in 1996 by an Act of Parliament (Uganda Wildlife Act Cap 200 of the laws of Uganda
2000) through a merger of the former Uganda National Parks and the then Game
Department. UWA was created to ensure sustainable management of wildlife and
coordinate, monitor and supervise activities related to wildlife management.
Uganda Wildlife Authority (UWA) has over the years been able to build internal
capacity for resource management. Despite this internal capacity there are key
issues regarding wildlife conservation and National Park management that still
need to be addressed such as climate change impacts on wildlife. There is
considerable evidence that the critical ecosystems in the National Parks in Uganda
are changing probably due to climatic and non-climatic stressors. Some of the
observed climatic change impacts include:
● Ecosystem changes: These include geographical and altitudinal shifts, changes
in seasonality and rates of disturbance, changes in species composition and a
rapid increase in invasive and exotic species.
● Human–wildlife conflicts: These are increasing as humans and wild species
compete for the same dwindling resources.
● Wild fires: Increased drought, the drying out of previously wet forests such as
the Rwenzori as well as human interference and pressure are leading to more
frequent and disastrous fires in ecosystems that are poorly adapted to such
events hence driving wildlife into communities.
● Receding snow on the Rwenzori: Snow on the Rwenzori Mountains is receding
with varied impacts such as floods in the low lands and yet it is the major
tourist attraction on the Mountain.
Human well-being, functioning ecosystems and climate change are interlinked.

Conserving biodiversity can moderate the impacts of climate change on human
communities by maintaining ecosystem functions and services. People depend upon
nature for livelihoods, so biodiversity provides insurance under climate stress. As
biodiversity declines, so does the resilience of ecosystems and the services they
provide to humanity. Furthermore, climate change is causing a shift in human
resource use patterns, and it is increasingly important to take this into account in
conservation planning hence the reason for this assessment.
This assessment therefore comes in handy to understand overall climate change
impacts on the National Parks. This study assessed the following:
Climate change impacts on the National Parks both in the present, present and
future. How vulnerable these National Parks and the adjacent communities to the
impacts of Climate Change are, ecosystem components that are more vulnerable in
each National Park, and the forms of resilience and mitigations against the impacts
of climate change that exist.
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2. BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY
Climate change impact studies are necessarily conjectural. That is to say, impacts
cannot usually be experimentally confirmed or verified. Clearly, it is not possible
to conduct a controlled experiment by changing the global atmosphere to test the
effects of changes on human and natural systems.
On the other hand, climate change and indeed its impacts on National Parks are
not in doubt. However, the nature, type, extent and potential impacts remain a
subject of study. Malcolm & Markham (1997) and Walker & Steffen (1997) reviewed
the impacts of a changing climate on biodiversity and provided insightful
conclusions including the following:
Species respond differently to climate change because of differences in

competitive abilities, migration rates, and responses to disturbance, and in other
ways. Thus, new combinations of species arise. This “reorganization” in species
composition have yet unknown consequences for ecosystem functioning.
Many species may be able to disperse fast enough to keep up with projected
climate change provided they can disperse through continuous and relatively
undisturbed, natural ecosystems. This emphasizes the importance of
non-fragmented protected areas and consequences of fragmentation thereof.
Depending on the rate of climate change, other niche parameters may not change
at the same rate as climate, resulting in novel habitat combinations that species
have not experienced before. Changes in the relative timing of seasonal events
during the yearly cycle may have strong negative impacts for many species,
especially the migratory ones.
Invasion of alien species into natural ecosystems is an increasing problem

worldwide which is likely to be exacerbated by climate change. Disturbance and
dieback probably increase as more long-lived organisms (trees) are farther from
their optimal environmental envelopes and subject to increasing pressure from
land use change. An increase in disturbance leads to more ecosystems into early
succession stages, resulting in a generally “weedier”, structurally simpler
landscape with fewer systems in a more ecologically complex, old-growth state.
Strikingly, different effects of climate change on species composition occur within
individual landscapes because of local effects of soil, land use, and topographic
variation.
One difficulty in climate change impact assessment is that there are other factors
that impact on the National Parks and sometimes these factors work in unison with
the climatic factors. Isolating them is a hurdle faced by climate scientists. National
Parks’ biodiversity is affected by changes in water and land use, deposition of
atrophying and acidifying substances, soil erosion, land degradation, and
recreation. Generally, the inflow of contaminating or fertilizing substances via air
or water may also affect an ecosystem and its reaction to climate change.
In some cases, management practices are also influential. Even then, they may be
part of ecosystems disturbances that contribute unintended impacts in the
National Parks. All these factors highlighted influence the way in which
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biodiversity reacts to changes in climate. Perhaps the most influential factor is the
aspect of human disturbance to the protected areas.
3. SALIENT ASPECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE DISCOURSE AT INTERNATIONAL,

REGIONAL, SUB REGIONAL, NATIONAL AND LOCAL LEVELS
The following sections present some of the key processes and actions that have
been undertaken and or still on going towards combating the climate change
challenge and impacts at international, regional, sub regional, national and local
levels.
3.1. International
The United Nations Charter provides for number of multi-lateral agreements but
also guides and influences international actions on development and environmental
protection. It is the foundation for various multi-lateral agreements which Uganda
is a signatory to such as: The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC), Convention to Combat Desertification (CCD), Kyoto Protocol and
the MDGs. UNFCCC provides an international framework for mitigating causes of
climate change and its effects at both international and national level. Indeed, it
commits countries to integrate climate change issues into their national planning
process, sub regional or regional programs. Its objective is to stabilize
concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere at a manageable level; permitting
development to proceed in a sustainable manner and natural ecosystems to
recover from shocks of climate change.
Each year the 192 countries that are party to the UN Framework Convention on
Climate Change hold a “Conference of Parties” (COP) - this is the highest organ in
climate negotiations and it is here all decisions of importance to the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are made. All
countries that have signed the UNFCCC are represented. The agenda and
background material for the conferences is formulated and set out by the UN
Climate Change Secretariat in Bonn, while the host country has the responsibility
to make premises available. A total of 25 COPs have been held, the latest in being
in Madrid in December 2019. On 22nd April 2010, Uganda formally submitted letter
to the United Nations indicating association with the Copenhagen Accord (UNFCCC,
2010).
Initiatives to deal with climate change at international level
▪ The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
▪ Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation plus (REDD+)
Climate change discourse and key milestones at international level
❖ 1979 - First World Climate Conference held in Geneva, Switzerland
❖ 1985 - United Nations Environmental Program/ World Metrological
Organization held the conference on green house emissions especially
carbon dioxide
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❖ 1988 - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change established by United
Nations Environmental Program/ World Metrological Organization
(www.ipcc.ch)
❖ 1994 - United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change came into
force
❖ 1997 - Kyoto Protocol drawn up and came into force in 2005. The United
States of America, one of the leading polluters refused to sign it
❖ 2006 - Asia-Pacific Partnership for Clean Development which comprises of
USA, Australia, China, India, South Korea and Japan
❖ 2006 - Stern report highlighting the economic rationale and implication for
Climate change published
❖ 2007 - Thirteenth conference of parties in Bali, which drew a roadmap
towards Copenhagen.
3.2. Sub Regional Initiatives
● The African Ministers Conference on Environment (AMCEN)
● The Pan African Climate Justice Alliance (PACJA)
● The East African Community Climate Change Policy
● African Forestry Forum Initiative
● The Forest Dialogues (TFD)
3.3 National Initiatives
o Development of the Uganda National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA)
o Establishment of the Climate Change Unit in the Ministry of Water and
Environment.
o The REDD readiness process in Uganda
o Development of the National Development Plan (NDP) for Uganda
o Climate Action Network Uganda (CAN-U)
o Multi-stakeholder Programme Implementation
o Scoping studies and consultative processes on climate change impacts in
Uganda by various development partners to inform their strategic plans e.g.
United Kingdom Department for International Development, United Nations
Development Program, European Union, Food and Agriculture Organization,
Katoomba Group, DENIVA.
Uganda being signatory to the UNFCCC is obliged to develop and implement
strategies at national and local levels to contribute to the overall goal of the
combating climate change. In this respect, the following initiatives have been
undertaken by the Government and other stakeholders at the national level.
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4. PURPOSE
The purpose of the study was to assess the impacts of climate change on the
National Parks’ ecosystems, their effects on adjacent communities and provide
feasible recommendations for conservation planning.
Specific objectives
The specific objectives were to:
i. Evaluate the observed climate change impacts in different ecosystems in
each of the National Parks since 1996 to-date
ii. Assess the vulnerabilities of the National Parks and adjacent communities
under the current and future climate change scenarios
iii. Provide feasible recommendations for conservation planning for the
management of wildlife resources.
3.0. METHODOLOGY
3.1. Study Area
This study was undertaken in ten (10) National Parks of Uganda. These include
Bwindi Impenetrable, Kibale, Kidepo Valley, Lake Mburo, Mgahinga Gorilla, Mount
Elgon, Murchison Falls, Queen Elizabeth, Rwenzori Mountains and Semuliki National
Parks. The map below in figure 1 shows locations of the National Parks of Uganda.
Figure 1 Map of Uganda showing the ten National Parks

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3.2. Approach
The study was approached as described below and subsequent sections:
❖ Preliminary literature review
❖ Undertake detailed desk study on documents and reports
❖ Field study
❖ Data collection
❖ Data analysis
❖ Reports and report writing
❖ Draft report
❖ Presentation and Review of first Draft report with Client
❖ Presentation and Review of second Draft report with Client and Stakeholders
❖ Preparation and submission of Final report.
3.3. Tools
Uganda’s National Park ecosystems are diverse with varying terrain covering
different geographical areas with different past, present and perhaps future
climatic outlooks. Therefore, in order to understand the impact of climate change
on such varied ecosystems (National Parks), the various tools were used:
There is a range of different approaches or methods that are used in the

assessment of climate change impacts. These include quantitative and predictive
models, empirical studies, and expert judgment. Each of these approaches has its
own advantages and weaknesses, and a good strategy may be to use a combination
of approaches in different parts of the assessment or at different stages of the
analysis. Additional methods of literature reviews and the use of expert judgment
including cases of empirical studies of current climate impacts are very useful.
There are also other tools, such as geographic information systems (GIS) and
remote sensing.
Determining which method to use is dependent on available financial resources
and time allocated for the study.
3.4. Methods
Literature reviews, Key informant’s interviews as well as expert judgment were
also used in the assessment. The following specific tasks were undertaken:
i. Review of information on key species of restricted range and
establishing the impacts of climate change on indicator species
ii. Review of information on wild fires and climate change
iii. change on the aerial and mass balance of snows and glaciers and
water quality
iv. Review of changes in vegetation including emergence of invasive
species
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v. Undertaking a vulnerability assessment of National Parks
vi. Proposing interventions for conservation planning
3.4.1. Data collection methods
Overall, existing data and new data on observed climate change impacts over time
in each of the 10 National Parks was collected using: Key informant’s interviews
with the Chief Conservation Area managers and Research and Monitoring Wardens
and the attendant rangers as well as literature review for instance General
Management Plans, Journal Articles and other reports and to understand changes
in vegetation, water resources and glaciers.
3.4.2. Vulnerabilities Assessment of the National Parks

Vulnerability is defined by the IPCC (2007) as the degree to which a system is
susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change,
including climate variability and extreme. Vulnerability assessments are
fundamental instruments to understand where climate change has impacts and
which ecosystems are more susceptible to change (IPCC, 2007). Vulnerability is
therefore linked with potential impacts, adaptive capacity, exposure and
sensitivity. Therefore, overall, the IPCC identified components of exposure,
sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (Figure 2).
Figure 2 Elements of the vulnerability assessment framework

Source: Morgan, C. L. (2011)
The vulnerability assessment was conducted step-by-step, using ecosystem based
adaptation approach (ebA) to understand:
▪ Ecosystems within the National Parks susceptible or unable to cope with,
adverse effects of climate change
▪ Exposure – extent to which an ecosystem experiences changes in climate. It
is occasioned by frequency, magnitude, extent duration and or spatial
extent or pattern of a weather event (IPCC, 2007).
▪ Sensitivity - the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or
beneficially, by climate related stimuli. The effect may be direct (e.g. a
change in tree yield in response to a change in the mean, range or
14
variability of temperature) or indirect (e.g. damages caused by an increase
in the frequency of riverbank flooding due to river level rise (IPCC, 2007).
▪ The adaptive capacity - the ability of a system to adjust to climate change
(including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages,
to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences (IPCC,
2007).
▪ Adaptation - the adjustments of natural or human systems in response to
actual or expected stimuli, or its effects to moderate the harm or exploit
beneficial opportunities (IPCC, 2007).
Ecosystem-based adaptation is the use of biodiversity and ecosystem services as

part of an overall adaptation strategy to help people to adapt to the adverse
effects of climate change (Convention on Biological Diversity, 2009). EbA focuses
on the benefits humans derive from biodiversity and ecosystem services, and how
these benefits can be utilized in the face of climate change. Consequently, EbA is a
people-centric concept, but one that acknowledges that human resilience depends
critically on the integrity of ecosystems.
In respect of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), Ecosystem-based

Adaptation to climate change sets the “sustainable management, conservation and
restoration of ecosystems” as corner stone of an “overall adaptation strategy that
takes into account the multiple social, economic and cultural co-benefits for local
communities”. This involves promoting robust natural and production landscapes
to bring about safer communities capable of thriving under environmental and
socio-economic change.
The following are the steps that were involved in undertaking vulnerability
assessment, using the ecosystem adaptation approach (EbA):
Steps
Step 1. Exploring feasibility of ebA
This includes verification of whether or not EbA could be a suitable option for the
National Parks under consideration. In order to do so the consultant team carried
out a rapid scoping to assess whether the target site, its people, and existing local
institutions and policies allow for the implementation of EbA. The outcome of this
stage was a ‘yes’ on the suitability of the site to apply EbA based on the questions
below:
Are the landscape and its land uses capable of delivering sufficient adaptation
services? Are actors aware of the adaptation services delivered by ecosystems and
do they value these? Is there a social and institutional framework which can be
strengthened and given responsibility in relation to EbA? Within this framework, is
there experience and willingness to generate policies and actions to keep the
aforementioned ecosystems in good health and able to supply key adaptation
services? Could the role of particular ecosystems play in delivering key adaptation
services be acknowledged and valued in spiritual, aesthetic, ecological and
economical terms? Are actors and decision makers willing to strengthen
15
development planning policies with adaptation strategies that take adaptation
services into account?
The answer to the majority of these questions was a ‘yes’, then EbA would not be
a suitable option for the site under consideration. If the answer to the majority of
these questions was yes, then the following steps proceeded.
Step 2. Assessing vulnerability: climate risks vs. existing adaptive capacity

This is focusing on vulnerability to climate variability and change that different
ecosystems, stakeholders, sectors and livelihoods may be facing in the in National
Parks. The existing adaptive capacity therein was determined. The principle being
addressed here was: In what way is the social-ecological system vulnerable for
climate change? This helps produce a vulnerability profile. This profile could be
used to start informed discussion on vulnerability hotspots in the national parks at
strategic level of UWA management.
Step 3. Rapid ecosystem services appraisal

The interest here was to understand which services are provided by ecosystems,
how these services contribute to climate resilience at National Park level, and how
these services are changing. The core activity here was to characterize the
relevant adaptation services and understand how they change due to climate
change.
The aim was to have understanding of the relationships between land uses, people,
assets at risk and ecosystems delivering services, making use of all information
available in the previous steps.
▪ The main characteristics of the park and the key ecosystems were
described;
▪ Indicate which ecosystems provide services that are vital for coping with
current climate extremes (variability) and for recovering after a (potential)
disaster;
▪ List all adaptation services provided by the key ecosystems, e.g. freshwater
supply, flood control, erosion control, etc.
▪ identify the main drivers of change affecting these services (besides climate
change), and which plausible trends can be expected for the ecosystems
providing these adaptation services;
▪ identify ecosystems that are the most important when considering the
current and future dependence of livelihoods and sectors on their services
(owing to their role in disaster risk reduction, adaptation capacity etc., or
for tourism, cultural reasons);
▪ Locate these key ecosystems on a convenient map of the area.
Step 4. Developing an ebA strategy and adaptation measures

The focus here was on building the EbA strategy, defining adaptation priorities and
designing EbA measures. Such measures include: River bank restoration, Livelihood
diversification for surrounding communities, promoting ex-situ conservation
systems, again with communities, etc.
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Step 5. Mainstreaming ebA and promoting synergies
In this step the goal was to identify what is needed in order to mainstream EbA
into local, municipal and national policies, including in the General management
plans to increase the resilience of people and ecosystems to changing climatic
conditions.
Mainstreaming aim at enhancing the effectiveness, efficiency, and longevity of

initiatives directed at reducing climate-related risks, while at the same time
contributing to sustainable development and improved quality of National Park.
The entry points for mainstreaming were through:

▪ Assessment of climate change impact inclusion in the General Management
Plans of the National Parks;
▪ Increase awareness, knowledge and understanding of climate change
impacts.
▪ Enhance capacities of stakeholders and institutions across sectors and at
different levels to jointly formulate and implement adaptive policies that
take climate change into consideration.
▪ Ensure that EbA interventions complement other development initiatives:
taking advantage of synergies and building common approaches.
3.2.3 Resilience and adaptation against Climate Change Impacts

On the basis of the results from climate change impact of National Parks,
and expert judgment, a couple of resilience and adaption measures were
provided to help in conservation planning. The provision of these measures
also depends on reviews of existing literature from other National Parks
outside Uganda. It is however important to note therefore that the
consultant is not inventing the wheel, rather, he is acting on the basis of
existing wealth of knowledge and experience, including existing practices in
place world over. The core task is more of gap analysis and deliberate
attempts to fill up the existing gaps thereon by factoring the realities of
each National Park peculiarities.
In general, this is about building a whole suite of adaptation actions based

on the following principles:
i. Focusing on reducing non-climate stresses
Reducing ecosystem degradation is a no regrets, win-win approach to
adaptation. Ecosystem-based Adaptation strategies should include a focus
on minimizing other anthropogenic stresses that have degraded the
condition of critical ecosystems, and thereby undermine their resilience to
climate change. Such stresses include, inter alia, unsustainable harvests,
habitat fragmentation, nonnative species, and pollution.
ii. Involving local communities
Community participation is an important element in all of the case studies
profiled. Ecosystem-based Adaptation measures are more successful when
the local population participates in both planning and implementation.
iii. Multi-partner strategy development
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Ecosystem-based Adaptation presents a tangible opportunity to solve
climate change problems by aligning conservation, development, and
poverty alleviation interests. Such synergies benefit from collaboration
between indigenous and local communities, conservationists, natural
resource managers, relevant private sector stakeholders, development
specialists, and humanitarian aid specialists.
iv. Building upon existing good practices in natural resource
management
The most effective Ecosystem-based Adaptation strategies apply established
best practices on land, water, and natural resource management to confront
some of the new challenges posed by climate change. The application of the
ecosystem approach for the integrated management of resources is
particularly appropriate to the implementation of Ecosystem-based
Adaptation.
v. Adopting adaptive management approaches
Ecosystem-based Adaptation strategies should support adaptive
management options that facilitate and accelerate learning about
appropriate adaptation options for the future. Climate impacts and EbA
measures should be monitored carefully so that management actions can be
appropriately adjusted in response to changing conditions.
vi. Integrating Ecosystem-based Adaptation with wider adaptation
strategies
Successful adaptation depends upon integrating Ecosystem-based Adaptation
initiatives with other risk management components, such as early warning
systems and awareness-raising, and in some cases with physical
infrastructural interventions. It is important to encourage and enable
technology transfer and dialogue between planners and practitioners with
expertise in hard engineering, and in ecosystem management
vii. Communicating and educating
Successful Ecosystem-based Adaptation depends on knowledge
transfer, capacity building, integrating science and local knowledge
and raising awareness about climate change impacts and the benefits
and potential of sound ecosystem management.
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4.0 FINDINGS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON NATIONAL PARKS
The absence of continuous and proximate meteorological observations in National
Parks undermines the use of weather data to look at current trends in the parks.
The inadequacy in that regard does not allow collection of correct data that form a
basis for meaningful analysis and processing of the information thereof in
determine climate change impacts.
4.1 General Account of Climate Change and Impacts in the National Parks
The changes in temperature and precipitation have cascading effects on many
facets of National Parks’ ecology. Such effects include but are not limited to,
increased frequency and intensity of fire due to drier fuel loads, increased risk of
drought and heat waves, and reductions in snowpack leading to changes in
stream-flow patterns and alterations of freshwater systems. For each National
Park, the observed changes have been documented as below.
4.1.1 QUEEN ELIZABETH NATIONAL PARK (QENP) -
Climate Change Impacts
Dried water pools for example Hippo pools which used to be permanent, are now
seasonal (in Ishasha and channel track). This indicates that temperature has
increased in some seasons leading to drying out of these pools. Hippos therefore
find it hard to graze within the areas around the pools because of lack of water in
the vicinity during the times when these pools are dry. The drying of these pools
dictates that the Hippos ought to move far from their safe havens to less secure
places, thereby endangering themselves.
Vegetation changes are now evident. The grassland habitats are changing towards
thickets emerging in areas where they used not to be. These habitat changes have
impacted on the existence of Reedbucks in the Park. Sheer monitoring of the
Reedbucks in the park indicates that they are quite rare in the park. This has
impact on tourism potential of the park in the medium and long term perspective.
Pelicans used to stay in wetland/swamp but now the swamp is occupied by
Aeschynomene elephroxylon - Ambatch trees.
Blue lake around Kamiranjojo has disappeared. The lake has gotten silted. The
sitting will inevitably lead further loss of aquatic life.
There is emergency of invasive species both indigenous like Indigofera rectus,

Imperata cylindrica, Dicrostachys cinerea and exotic species like Lantana camara,
Parthenium hysterophorus and Oputia vulgaris. These present high management
costs in dealing with them. They also change animal grazing patterns in the park
thereby limiting tourists from encountering ungulates.
There is noticeable increased water levels for example, Lake Kikorongo which
joined with Lake George. There is also emergency of new water pools such as the
one near Bunyampaka. These are pointers of increased run-offs. Water pools are
essential as watering points for animals in the park. The runoffs however have
potential to introduce weed seeds into these lakes.
19
Small rivers are drying in the park such as River Kamiranjojo and River Kibwera.
The ultimate impact of this is change of the riverine vegetation. The faunal
assemblages along such areas will also likely to change. Therefore, water specialist
animals will either migrate, move over long distances to look for water or migrate.
Other impacts of climate change are listed below:

🟂 Increasing human population towards the park boundary for ecosystem
services
🟂 Emerging diseases like Mulberg, Ebola, and increased occurrences of Anthrax
🟂 Emergency of new bird species like Sagittarius serpentarius - Secretary bird
and Arenaria interpres - Ruddy Turnstone
🟂 Increased human-crocodile conflicts in the park
🟂 An increase in Tuskless elephant numbers
🟂 Change in rainfall patterns (early rains used to start in March but now comes
earlier
🟂 Overgrazing due to reduced grazing areas that have been taken up by
invasive and unpalatable spp.
It is important to note that these observed impacts cannot solely be attributed to
climate change. However, they cannot be isolated from climate influence in one or
the other.
4.1.2 RWENZORI MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK (RMNP) -
Observed Climate Change Impacts
There is snow recession on Rwenzori Mountains resulting into crevasse. Taylor
et.al, 2006, stated that the overall trend of snow recession is approximately 0.7
km 2 per decade since 1906. The observations made on glacier status in 1953 by
Belgian Natural Institute and 2008 by EARPO/S. F Haarklau &Marc Languy provide
grounds for remarkable conclusions as shown the figure 4 below.
Figure 3 glacier status in 1953 by Belgian Natural Institute on left and 2008 by
EARPO/S. F Haarklau &Marc Languy on right seen on the same position of Lac
Gracis
The base of main glacier as seen from Lac Gracis in 1953 left compared with the
same glacier seen from the same location in 2008 on the right shows substantial
20
glacial loss. Since glacier recession is a function of increased temperatures, it is
safe to infer that there has been increasing temperatures over these years in this
National Park.
Further, for Rwenzori Mountains, analyses of LandSat imagery using supervised

classification (SC) and NDSI identify a ~50% decrease in the total area of glaciers
from 1987 (2.01±0.11 km2) to 2003 (0.96±0.34 km2). Broad agreement exists
between estimates of glacial cover (<12% difference) derived from each method.
Glaciers in the Rwenzori Mountains are, nevertheless, expected to disappear
within the next two decades if deglaciation continues to follow the observed linear
trend (Figure 5)
Figure 4 Plot of changes in glacial areal extent on the Central Rwenzori Massif
since 1906
Extracted from Research Report No.113 of national geographic society
There is drying of vegetation especially in the Alpine zone e.g. Giant Heather
trees, Lobelia, Scenario. In 2009, one chameleon species Chamello johnsonit was
observed at altitude of 3,600m. Stands of fresh giant lobelias (Lobelia wallastoni)
and groundsels (Senecio admiralis) within the bogs arc fewer as most of them were
observed to be drying. Lobelia lanuriasis that thrives on thin and poor rocky soil at
upper reaches were observed to be migrating upwards. Interestingly, these
chameleons were known to occur at lower altitudes in the past (Josephat's pers.
Comm.).
There is increased presence of mosquitoes and house flies. Cases of malaria around
the Park are on the increase unlike in the past. Highland areas such as RMNP are
cooler and are supposed to be devoid of mosquitoes. The recent sheer observation
of these vectors is indicative of a warming park.
21
Over the last 20 years, there had not been wild fire in alpine zone. There was a
recent fire that caused a lot of harm to the park. The occurrence of this rare wild
fire, points out that much of the area had dried out, hence the wild fire.
Otherimpacts include:
🟂 Increased frequency of torrential rains
🟂 Increased rock weathering on Mt. Speke, Baker and Stanley.
🟂 Frequent floods down steam in Kasese district
🟂 Un expected and prolonged droughts
🟂 Reduced water volumes in rivers (Mubuku, Nyamugasani, Sebwe, etc.) and
Cirque lakes (Bujuku, Kitandara, the two green lakes on Mt. Speke)
🟂 Shifting of wild animals and vegetation species range (frequent sightings of
species not common in that given zone) e.g. three horned chameleon living
where they never used to be.
🟂 Increased rate of meat deterioration at John Mate camp (3 days maximum
instead of 7 days before)
4.1.3 KIBALE NATIONAL PARK (KNP) Observed Climate

Change Impacts
🟂 Vegetation Changes-Forests taking up grassland areas, Disappearing of
species e.g. wild coffee
🟂 Drying up/reducing sizes of swamps e.g. Dura swamp, Rwembaata
🟂 Reduced flow and volume of most rivers e.g. Dura, Mpanga, Nsongi
🟂 Reduced lake levels e.g. Lake Kabaleke
🟂 Prolonged droughts e.g. Instead of mid march the drought continues to
April.
🟂 Invasion of Invasive species e.g. Lantana camara: around restoration area,
Ngogo, Kanyawara and Dura; it came around 2005 around the restoration
area, Ngogo, Kanyawara and Dura.
🟂 Changed flowering and fruiting seasons e.g. Ficus mucusu, Mimusops
bagshawei.
🟂 Reduced wildfire incidences due to vegetation changes
🟂 Evidenced rise in temperatures: observed drying of undergrowth as
compared to the previous years.
🟂 Rain variations/erratic, increased rainfall intensity; Months when rains start
🟂 Increased demand by neighboring communities for domestic water use due
to dried water sources e.g. Nyabweya, Sebitoli, Kahangi, Kihingami: dried
swamp, Bole-hole
🟂 Reduced soil fertility around the park;
22
Figure 5 Picture of one of the crater lakes in the park showing reducing water levels
Adapted from KNP general management plan inside 2015-2025
4.1.4 SEMULIKI NATIONAL PARK (SNP) Observed Climate

Change Related Impacts
🟂 Increase in homesteads around SNP-more sub counties created around the
park
🟂 Reduced water volume at the hot spring-reduced water velocity
🟂 Cattle grazing coming closer to the park boundary in search for surviving
grass during the dry season (evident in TSWR)
🟂 Colonization of grassland by Acacia spp in the northern part of the park.
🟂 Expansion of exotic trees (Cedrela and Senna spectabilis) to other parts of
the park compared to areas where they were planted during the FD time
(before 1993).
🟂 Increased sightings of the African green pigeons compared to the 1990’s
when they would be no sightings at all. It seems most likely that they come
from Congo
🟂 Increased rainfall amount causing low cocoa production in communities,
land use change-in terms of infrastructure development and flooding of
tourism trails in the park
4.1.5LAKE MBURO NATIONLA PARK (LMNP) Observed
Climate Change Related Impacts
🟂 The rapid spread of Acacia hockii and Acacia gerradii within the
Park-Invasive
🟂 The increased woody/bushes-park becoming more forested compared to
savannah as it used to be in the past (Habitat fragmentation)-Cactus sp
dying off and no new ones coming up. Disappearance of Hyperhenia grass
species.
🟂 Increased rainfall-from June –September used to be dry now the opposite
occurs-there is no clear marked dry season.
23
🟂 Siltation of Lake Mburo-Papyrus eating up the banks
🟂 Reduced animal sightings due to changes in distribution as a result of
habitat changes-Oribi, Reedbuck
🟂 More new bird species being sighted e.g. shining blue king fisher,
white-backed night heron (these are associated with water), Crested
barbet, Ground hornbill-not believed to be south of the equator.
🟂 Increased water table-in the past 16.8m, now measuring 15.3m. (Drying of
wetlands e.g. Kizimbi swamp which had dried since 2006 but just came back
in 2011.)
4.1.6 KIDEPO VALLEY NATIONAL PARK (KVNP) Observed
There is noticeable destruction of vegetation likely to be caused by the increased
length of dry periods. Longer drier periods undermine leaf and stem survival and
lead to plant death in some cases, but also slow down regeneration capabilities of
the plants. The section of the Narus valley, in particular experiences longer and
hotter periods causing this phenomenal plant death.
Increased wild fire events: Wild fire events mostly affect wildlife in the national
park. The most commonly affectedly wildlife are ostrich (breeding grounds) and
grazers such as zebra, kudu, hartebeest and eland. Since these animals are prey
for lion, cheetah and leopard, predator populations would be affected because of
lack of a source of food.
The beisa oryx – Oryx beisa and Roan antelope – Hippotragus equines are believed
to have been extirpated from the park. While the causes of this are more than
climate change, it is inevitable to eliminate climate change as a contributing case.
Loss of habitat for the last population of these animals is a function of climate
change.
Harrisonia abbysinica, a fire- /drought-resistant plant species, is currently
colonizing the Narus Valley and other parts of KVNP (KVNP GMP, 2012). This species
is unsuitable in would be grazing areas for the ungulates. Attempts to
mechanically remove the species in some of the areas where it has colonized have
not been very effective. The plant has a high prolific capability to regeneration.
There is a noticeable transition of pasture areas to woody vegetation. This, in
effect forces wildlife to move away from water in search of food, and move away
from food in search of water. The increased movement raises the risk of poaching.
Grazing populations could be compromised due to these stresses. Examples of such
sites include Pire and Nakale where there is there are emerging lianas apparent
reduced species richness, Kaekem where there is Development of thickets, and
East of Kidepo river with Dichrosthachys cinerea.
In the consequence of the above, there is growing reduction in the area of mating
grounds, such as for Uganda kob, which need large open areas without thickets.
This has likely impact of reduced reproductive potential of these animals overall.
24
4.1.7 MOUNT ELGON NATIONAL PARK (MENP) Observed
🟂 Increased intensity and frequencies of erosion, Landslides and floods.
Mt Elgon was once Africa's highest mountain, far exceeding Kilimanjaro’s current
5,895m. Millennia of erosion have reduced its height to 4,321m, relegating it to
the 4th highest peak in East Africa and 8th on the continent. Considering that it
first erupting around 24 million years ago, the rate of erosion has not to been high,
but progressively it has produced a significant impact. Erosion is primarily a
function Slope steepness that tends to response to gravitational stress. However,
the accelerating causes are:
▪ Drainage and stream action- Excessive water in slopes is never good

as it destabilizes the slope by adding weight, destroying cohesion
between grains, and reducing friction. When water takes the place
of air between the grains of soil, it will most likely increase the
probability of downslope mass movement and lead to slope
failures as the earth in slopes become a lot heavier. Streams can
also erode away the bottom of the slope overtime resulting in
decrease in slope stability.
▪ Vegetation: The amount and type of vegetation on a slope is

proportional to the strength of that slope. Generally, the roots of
vegetation hold the soil in place and make it more resistant to
erosion. Therefore, the more vegetation present, the more stable
the slope is likely to be.
▪ Human Modifications: Humans modify stability of slopes in many

ways which may trigger the sudden mass movement of the soil in
slopes. Such includes the excavation and removal of the slope’s base
to build roads, the passage of heavy trucks, blasting, loading of the
slope or crest, surface or groundwater manipulation, irrigation and
mining
Stream action and vegetation cover are related to climate change. Human
activities influence and but also are influenced by climate change impacts.
Other climate change related impacts include:

🟂 Colonization of bamboo zone by tree species-Aningerai altisma, Croton spp,
Neubotania spp, Hygenia abbysinica, etc
🟂 River volume progressively reducing and some disappearing-River Pasa, River
Nabuyonga now seasonal yet it was permanent, River Ngenge now seasonal
also, and River Dirigana also seasonal as well as Laso river
🟂 Increased intensity and frequencies of Landslides and floods
🟂 Visible Mountain crack
🟂 Presence of mosquitoes in highlands (over 2000m) of Kapkwai, Suam, Tutum,
and Wanale where they never used to be.
25
🟂 Drying of crater lakes such as the one which is before the hotspring at
Sasa-Sipi trail junction in the caldera.
🟂 Increased temperatures reported from experience
🟂 Expanding range and extent of invasive (both exotic and indigenous) such as
Black wattle, Lantana camara in Kapkwata, Suam.
🟂 Increased siltation as observed in changed river quality-carrying soils along
🟂 Changing weather patterns-Rains used to start in March but now it is in April
and short duration in most cases
🟂 Changed soil characteristics hence causing the change in human lifestyles
e.g. Bananas substituted for Cassava crops, collapsing of caves such as
Kapkwai cave
🟂 Reduced sightings of Endemic Lamargeyer bird.
26
4.1.8 MURCHISON FALLS NATIONAL PARK (MFNP) -
Observed Climate Change Related Impacts
🟂 Changing vegetation
There is emergency of Combretum plant species in high populations at
various points in the park for example, along Wakwa road. While it is hard to link
to climate change, it is still possible that climate change plays a role.
Young Combretum species colonizing particular parts of MFNP along

Wakwa road
🟂 Increased flood frequency

River Tangi has been experiencing rising water levels because of
heavy rainfall within the microcatchment. This has on several
occasions led to destruction of Tangi bridge, cutting transport from
Para ferry to Packwach road. December 2019, heavy rains led to
floods reaching the tarmac road of Packwach, again cutting transport
of people and goods to Packwach and districts beyond. Below are the
pictures showing floods and associated impacts of December 2019.
27
Vehicles and people blocked by river A vehicle fell off road track into water
floods towards Packwach bridge from floods towards Packwach bridge from
Tangi river December 2019 Tangi river December 2019
Water level rising on Victoria Nile river Water floods towards Packwach bridge
at Paara, December 2019 from Tangi river December 2019
Uganda Roads Authority, in the consequence raised a red flag to crossing the
flooded point.
28
4.1.9 BWINDI IMPENETRABLE NATIONAL PARK (BINP)
There are observed impacts of Climate change already negatively impacting on the
Bwindi National Park. Major observed negative impacts over time include:
There are reduced water levels in swamps and streams. Such swamps include
Mubwindi and Munyaga (ITFC 2003). The reduction in water levels undermines the
survival of aquatic and wetland biodiversity in terms of reduced breeding points
and availability of food. This generally disadvantages ecosystem integrity.
There is notable increased mosquitoes and consequently malaria incidences around

Buhoma. The cause of this is general temperature rise. There is general consensus
that in Kigezi, there used not be mosquitoes, but with increased temperatures over
time, the sub-region has been invaded by these vectors. It is now not unusual to
find malaria patients in Kigezi with increased deaths of the same disease.
Expanding Gorilla Habitat ranges within the park is being attributed to habitat
changes due to climate change, which may be resulting in reduced food for the
Apes hence moving all over the forest in search for suitable food and other needs.
There are indeed reported cases of Apes ranging out of the park into communities.
While the causes might be more complex than mere due to climate change, the
increased ranging patterns points to effects of climate change.
Within the communities surrounding the park, new food crops such as cassava
which do not tolerate cold conditions are being observed in gardens. This shows
change in temperature since areas like Kabale used to be cold such that those
crops could not survive.
29
🟂 Increased expenditures within the park is attributed partly to increasing
management challenges. Most of the challenges are compounded by climate
change impacts that require new ways to solve them.
🟂 The rapid spread of invasive species such as Lantana camara is a sign of an
unhealthy ecosystem resulting from climate change.
4.1.10 MGAHINGA GORILLA NATIONAL PARK (MGNP)

Negative impacts over time include:
🟂 Increased malaria incidences in Kisoro and Ntebeko in particular as a result
of invasion by mosquitoes due to Temperature rise.
Mosquitoes used to be quite rare in the region. This was thought to be due to cold
conditions for most of the year. In the present, these vectors have become quite
abundant with the associated cases of Malaria in humans.
🟂 Shorter periods of seasonal Ntebeko river flow from the park
Ntebeko River has been reported to present short periods of water flow as
compared to some years back when the river could seasonally flow for a long time.
This represents a changing temperature regime but towards longer warmer period
than in the past.
🟂 Shrinking of wetlands in the park

Kabiranyuma, Rugezi and Nturo mash lands and wetlands show reduced size as
compared to the past as well as those on community land such as those in
Nyagakenke village
🟂 Change of vegetation type
Vegetation is progressively increasing from alpine forest around the base of Mt

Muhara to savanna ecosystem characteristics. The change from forest type to
Savannah type is indicative of changed adaphic factors which are in part
influenced by climate change. While there could be other factors in play, the
effluence of climate change cannot be underestimated.
🟂 Frequent movement of Gorillas

There are monitoring park records to indicate that the Gorillas (Nyakagezi group)
frequently move to neighbouring countries in such for better habitats. The change
in habitat quality that triggers this movement is associated with climate change in
the park. The movement presents potential lethal effects to the gorillas arising out
infections and human attack.
30
4.2 Climate change trends over years and projections in Uganda-
4.2.1 Current trends
4.2.1.1 Temperature
⌑ Mean annual temperature has increased by 1.30 C since 1960, an average

rate of 0.280C per decade. This increase in temperature has been most
rapid in January –February at a rate of 0.370C per decade.
⌑ Daily temperature observations show significantly increasing trends in the

frequency of hot days, and much large increasing trends in the frequency
of hot nights.
▪ The average number of ‘hot’ days per year in Uganda has increased
by 74 (an additional 20.4% of days) between 1960 and 2003. The rate
of increase is seen most strongly in June-July-August when the
average number of hot June-July-August days has increased by 8.6
days per month (an additional 27.8% of June-July-August days) over
this period.
▪ The average number of ‘hot’ nights per year increased by 136 (an
additional 37.4% of nights) between 1960 and 2003. The rate of
increase is seen most strongly in June-July-August when the average
number of hot June-July-August nights has increased by 14 days per
month (an additional 44.3% of June-July-August nights) over this
period.
▪ The frequency of cold days has decreased significantly in all seasons
except December-January–February. The frequency of cold nights
has, however, decreased more rapidly and significantly in all
seasons.
● The average number of ‘cold ‘days per year has decreased by
20 (5.5% of days) between 1960 and 2003.
● The average number of ‘cold’ nights per year has decreased by
42 (11.3% of days). This rate of decrease is most rapid in
December January –February when the average number of cold
December January –February nights has decreased by 3.4
nights per month (11.1% of December January –February
nights) over this period.
4.2.1.2 Precipitation
⌑ Observations of rainfall over Uganda show statistically significant

decreasing trends in annual and March-April-May rainfall. Annual rainfall
has decreased at an average rate of 3.4mm per month (3.5%) per decade,
but this trend is strongly influenced by particularly high rainfall totals in
1960-61. March-April-May rainfalls have decreased by 6.0mm per month
per decade (4.7%).
⌑ Trends in the extreme indices based on daily rainfall data are mixed. There
is no significant trend in the proportion of rainfall occurring in heavy4
events. 1- and 5-day rainfall maxima show small, non-statistically
31
significant increasing trends in all seasons except June-July-August when
the trend is decreasing.
4.2.2 Projections
Rainfall Climate projections developed for Uganda using the models used in the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) predict a slight decrease in total annual
rainfall in most of the country, with slightly wetter conditions over the west and
north-west under both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)10 RCP 4.5
and RCP 8.5. Rainfall totals might drop significantly over Lake Victoria (-20% from
present). The short-rain season of October-November-December shows the largest
projected increase of up to 35%.
The UNDP study also consistently projected a greater proportion of rainfall
occurring in heavy events (McSweeney et al, 2010).
4.2.2.1 Temperature
● The mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.0 to 3.10C by

the 2060s, and 1.4 to 4.90C by the 2090s. The range of projections by the
2090s under any one emissions scenario is 1.0-2.00C.
● Projected rates of warming are greatest in the coolest season, JJAS
increasing by 1.5 to 5.40C by the 2090s.
● All projections indicate increases in the frequency of days and nights

that are considered ‘hot’ in current climate.
o Annually, projections indicate that ‘hot’ days will occur on 15-43%
of days by the 2060s, and 18-73% of days by the 2090s.
o Nights that are considered ‘hot’ for the annual climate of 1970-99
are projected to increase more quickly that hot days, occurring on
31-84% of nights by the 2060s and 35-97% of nights by the 2090s.
● All projections indicate decreases in the frequency of days and nights that
are considered ‘cold’ in current climate. These events are expected to
become exceedingly rare, and do not occur at all by the 2090s in any
projections under the highest emissions scenarios (A2 and A1B).
●
Regional climate model studies suggest drying over most parts of Uganda in the
months of August and September by the end of the 21st Century as a result of a
weakening Somali jet and Indian monsoon (IPCC, 2014). The United Nations
Development Programme (UNDP) study found that mean annual temperature is
projected to increase by 1.0 – 3.1oC by the 2060s. Climate projections developed
for Uganda using the models used in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5)
indicate an increase in near-surface temperature for the country in the order of
+2°C in the next 50 years, and in the order of +2.5°C in the next 80 years under
Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5; and in the order of +2.5°C in the
next 50 years, and in the order of +4.5°C in the next 80 years under RCP 8.5.
32
4.2.2.2 Precipitation
● Projections of mean rainfall are broadly consistent in indicating increases

in annual rainfall. The ensemble range spans changes of -8 to +46% by the
2090s, with ensemble median changes of +7 to +11%.
● Projected increases in rainfall are largest in the short-rain season, OND (-8
to +35%).
● The models consistently project overall increases in the proportion of

rainfall that falls in heavy events. The increases range from 0 to 15% in
annual rainfall by the 2090s and affect the whole country throughout the
year.
● The models consistently project increases in 1- and 5-day rainfall maxima
by the 2090s of up to 27mm in 1-day events, and up to 37mm in 5-day
events. The largest increases are seen in the rainy seasons, March–April May
and October-November-December.
33
Table 1 observed and projected temperature and precipitation
Observed Observed Projected changes by the Projected changes by the Projected changes by the
Sce
Mean Trend nari 2030s 2060s 2090s
o
1970-99 1960-2006 Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max
Temperature
(°C) (change in °C Change in Change in °C Change in

per decade) °C °C
A2 0.9 1.2 1.7 1.9 2.5 3.1 3.0 3.8 4.9
Ann 22.0 0.28* A1 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.6 2.3 2.8 2.4 3.3 4.4
ual B
B1 0.5 1.1 1.4 1.0 1.8 2.2 1.4 2.2 2.8
A2 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.5 2.3 3.3 2.6 3.6 4.9
JF 23.1 0.37* A1 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.3 2.8 2.3 3.2 4.2
B
B1 0.4 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.5 2.1 1.2 2.0 2.6
A2 0.9 1.2 1.8 1.8 2.5 2.9 2.9 3.8 5.0
MA 22.6 0.31* A1 0.5 1.3 1.9 1.7 2.3 2.8 2.3 3.1 4.4
M B
B1 0.6 1.0 1.6 1.1 1.7 2.2 1.4 2.2 3.0
A2 1.0 1.3 2.1 2.0 2.6 3.2 3.2 4.0 5.4
JJA 21.1 0.24* A1 0.8 1.4 1.9 1.7 2.6 3.1 2.5 3.6 5.0
S B
B1 0.6 1.1 1.5 0.9 1.9 2.4 1.5 2.2 3.1
A2 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.2 3.1 2.9 3.5 4.4
34
ON 21.9 0.23* A1 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.3 2.3 2.6 2.0 3.2 3.8
D B
B1 0.3 0.9 1.4 0.9 1.6 2.1 1.3 1.9 2.4
Precipitation
(change in
(mm per mm per Change in mm per month Change in mm per month Change in mm per month
month) decade)
A2 -10 4 15 -2 7 29 -1 13 50
Ann 96.3 -3.4* A1 -4 2 18 -2 11 23 -2 14 32

ual B
B1 -2 1 11 -4 5 20 -8 9 22
A2 -9 1 13 -10 3 33 -8 17 47
JF 42.4 -3.1 A1 -11 8 20 -8 7 23 -9 2 38

B
B1 -15 2 11 -20 3 25 -11 9 19
A2 -10 4 17 -13 10 32 -24 16 40
MA 127.7 -6.0* A1 -13 5 26 -13 14 37 -19 18 40

M B
B1 -23 2 32 -15 3 30 -21 7 42
A2 -13 0 23 -6 0 38 -11 6 64
JJA 101.0 -3.6 A1 -15 0 19 -6 2 32 -12 7 41

S B
B1 -4 -1 14 -14 1 18 -8 3 24
A2 -10 6 28 -7 14 41 3 30 54
35
ON 94.6 -0.2 A1 -6 9 29 -3 22 32 2 22 48
D B
B1 -6 8 24 -9 10 24 -10 15 38
Precipitation(%)
(mm per (change in %
month) Per decade) % % Change % Change

Change
A2 -7 3 11 -2 6 21 -1 10 46
Ann 96.3 -3.5* A1 -4 2 11 -2 8 25 -2 11 26

ual B
B1 -3 1 14 -5 4 13 -9 7 28
A2 -5 0 18 -16 5 42 -9 16 61
JF 42.4 -7.2 A1 -18 9 26 -13 10 29 -14 3 52

B
B1 -9 2 26 -12 4 34 -11 9 27
A2 -7 2 19 -10 7 19 -19 15 46
MA 127.7 -4.7* A1 -8 4 15 -9 7 33 -13 9 26

M B
B1 -11 1 23 -9 3 21 -16 5 48
A2 -11 0 23 -8 0 43 -5 10 76
JJA 101.0 -3.5 A1 -12 1 18 -5 4 37 -5 6 32

S B
B1 -5 -1 15 -12 1 21 -7 5 19
A2 -5 3 13 -4 7 21 2 13 35
ON 94.6 -0.2 A1 -5 5 15 -2 9 18 2 11 31
D B
36
B1 -4 4 16 -8 5 11 -8 10 21
37
4.2.3 Climate change and wild fire incidences
Data available on fire incidences indicate that fires were more frequent under low
precipitation and high temperatures. Using the IPCC fifth assessment, most
National Parks receive less rain and are drier. With the exception of those in west
and north western Uganda, the rest of the parks are expected to be less wet over
the next decade. This will be associated with wild fires. In the recent years, the
wild fires incidences have occurred as shown in the figures below.
Figure 6 Fire Sensitivity Map for L. Mburo National Park, 2015
38
39
40
41
42
Figure 11 Fire Sensitivity Map for Kidepo Valley National Park, 2015
43
Figure 12 13 Fire Sensitivity Map Kidepo Valley National Park, 2016
44
Figure 13 Fire Sensitivity Map Kidepo Valley National Park, 2017
45
46
47
Figure 16 Fire Sensitivity Map of Murchison Falls National Park, 2015
48
49
50
51
52
Figure 21 Fire Sensitivity Map of Kibale National Park, 2015
53
54
55
56
57
4.2.4 Climate change and species of restricted ranges
There is lot information regarding restricted range species in Rwenzori mountain
National Park. Observations indicate that some restricted range species have now
become more distributed beyond their historical ranges. For example, pprevious
studies (such as Plumptre 2003) show that chimpanzees occurred up to 2500
meters above sea level. The recent inventory shows that chimpanzee nests
occurred almost up to 3000 meters high (up to the bamboo zone).
Hence, the chimpanzees appear to ranging higher than before, though there are
fewer nests above 2400 due to shortage of nesting/feeding sites in the mainly
bamboo zone. The shift to higher altitude points to changing climate in the area.
There are further examples to other taxomic groups that are contained in a study
entitled “Impact of Climate Change on the Species of Restricted Range in
Rwenzori Mountains National Park”
4.2.5 Climate change and species of conservation

concern
The drought index for Uganda indicates that drought index will be high in the
future. In the consequence, threatened species especially plants in the National
Parks will further reduce in numbers. The limited water available for plant
regeneration coupled with wild fires in the National Parks, compound this. The
table below presents an account species that are already endangered both
internationally and nationally that climate change will continue to impact upon,
leading to their possible extinction.
Table 2 IUCN Red listed endangered plant species in the protected areas
SPECIES NAME IUCN GLOBAL National Park

STATUS
1 Bothriocline CR Mt Elgon National Park
auriculata
2 Encephalartos CR Mpanga River falls-Kitagwenda District, near QENP
whitelockii
3 Brazzeia EN Bwindi Impenetrable National Park, Ishasha Gorge,
longipedicellata
4 Dialium excelsum EN Semuliki National Park, Kibale National Park,
5 Uvariodendron EN Bwindi Impenetrable National Park,
magnificum
Table 3 Nationally Red listed endangered plant species in the protected areas
No SPECIES NAME NATIONAL National Park

THREAT
STATUS
1 Bothriocline CR Mt Elgon National Park
auriculata
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3 Solanecio CR 1 site only (Ishasha Gorge, Bwindi Impenetrable National
gynuroides Park)
4 Encephalartos CR Mpanga River falls-Kitagwenda District
whitelockii
5 Pavetta intermedia CR Kibale National Park
7 Allanblackia CR Ishasha gorge (Bwindi Impenetrable National Park)
kimbiliensis
8 Lijndenia bequaertii CR Ishasha gorge (Bwindi Impenetrable National Park)
9 Antrocaryon CR Bwindi Impenetrable National Park,
micraster
10 Helichrysum EN Bwindi Impenetrable National Park, Rwenzoris Mt National
formosissimum Park,
11 Mikania microptera EN Kibale National Park (latest record Eilu 1999)
13 Brazzeia EN Bwindi Impenetrable National Park, Ishasha Gorge,
longipedicellata
14 Afzelia africana EN Murchison Falls National Park
15 Albizia ferruginea EN Murchison Falls National Park, Kibale National Park, Semuliki
National Park,
16 Irvingia gabonensis EN Semuliki National Park, Bwindi Impenetrable National Park,
17 Afrocarpus gracilior EN Mt Elgon National Park
18 Albertisia exelliana EN Kibale National Park
19 Entandrophragma EN Murchison Falls National Park
angolense
20 Entandrophragma EN Kibale National Park, Semuliki National Park,
cylindricum
21 Entandrophragma EN Kibale National Park, Semuliki National Park,
utile
22 Leplaea cedrata EN Semuliki National Park, Kibale National Park, Bwindi
Impenetrable National Park,
23 Khaya anthotheca EN Murchison Falls National Park (Rabongo), Semuliki National
Park,
24 Khaya grandifoliola EN Murchison Falls National Park,
25 Khaya senegalensis EN Murchison Falls National Park)
26 Leplaea EN Bwindi Impenetrable National Park (Ishasha Gorge)

mayombensis
27 Lovoa swynnertonii EN Kibale National Park, Semuliki National Park.
28 Lovoa trichilioides EN Kibale National Park.
Source: WCS (2016)
4.2.6 Climate change and Plant Species Invasiveness

For most of the National Parks, invasive animals have not been reported. However,
invasive plants have been reported both from literature and key informant
interviews. The following National Parks have been reported with the following
common invasive plant species:
Table 4 Climate change and Plant species invasiveness
National Invasive plant Current Action

Park reported threat level
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QENP Imperata High Exclude fire in highly invaded areas where herbivorous
cylindrica populations are low;
Intensify late burning where herbivorous animal

populations are high
Dychrostachys High Uproot before population increases

cinerea
Cymbopogon Moderate Uproot where complete colonization has taken place

nardus
Pathenium high Uproot any plant observed without any delay

hysterophorus
KVNP Harrison Moderate Uproot where thickets have spread

abysnica
LMNP Acacia hockii high Undertake conservation actions that increase

herbivory;
Remove climbers to stop thicket establishment;
Encourage burning to activate grass seed bank for

germination
RMNP None None None reported
KNP None None None reported
SNP None None None reported
MFNP Combretum sp Moderate Monitoring required
BINP None None None reported
MGNP None None None reported
4.2.7 Climate change and Indicator species abundances

In most of the National Parks where surface water resources are limited in form of
lakes, rivers, streams, swamps, springs etc, indicator species such as large
mammals decrease in numbers. During dry seasons human wildlife conflict cases
tend to be high as reported by the UWA field staff. Animals are targeted by the
surrounding communities and trap them to death. Other animals starve due to
reduced foliage during dry seasons and die.
This current trend provides a clue to the effect that since rainfall is projected to
decrease over the next decades under increasing temperatures, indicator species
abundances will change. The migration patterns too will change as animals roam
longer distances to find feed and water. Even in a National Park like Murchison
Falls where there is a permanent source of water; the Nile water, animals such as
antelopes die of starvation occasioned by lack of enough foliage and water because
the distance to the water source might be longer than the sources of watering
points during the rainy seasons. National Parks like Kidepo Valley are presented
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with this problem due to insufficiency of surface water sources during the dry
season.
5.0 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
This explored exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the National Parks in
Uganda. The vulnerability status of the parks will aid decision making in terms of
the needed conservation actions.
5.1 Exploring the possibility of EbA in National Park
This sub section explores whether or not EbA approach to vulnerability assessment
is possible on the basis of the following question. If many or all questions receive
an ‘yes’ answer, then the EbA approach to vulnerability assessment is possible.
Table 5 Possibility for possibility of EbA in National Park
Questions Response comment

Are the National Parks and their land uses yes The areas being considered are
capable of delivering sufficient adaptation protected areas that offer a wide range
services? of services with the exception of those
whose nature is destruction based.
Are actors aware of the adaptation yes They do and that is why there are
services delivered by ecosystems and do deliberate efforts to deal with the
they value these? facets of vulnerability.
Is there a social and institutional yes The conservation of these National
framework which can be strengthened and Parks is provided under a legal
given responsibility in relation to EbA? framework and the institution for their
conservation is rather very robust and
can be strengthened further to use EbA
to conservation.
Within this framework, is there yes There is a experience but even then,
experience and willingness to generate there is potential to grow this niche.
policies and actions to keep the
aforementioned ecosystems in good
health and able to supply key adaptation
services?
Could the role of particular ecosystems yes The National Parks in particular are
play in delivering key adaptation services conserved for this role and therefore
be acknowledged and valued in spiritual, this can further be emphasized.
aesthetic, ecological and economical
terms?
Are actors and decision makers willing to yes This position is high on their priority
strengthen development planning policies list.
with adaptation strategies that take
adaptation services into account?
Is EbA therefore possible? yes All the questions passed the test.
5.2 Vulnerability assessment for National Parks

The susceptibility of National Parks to impacts of climate change is crucial as it
allows for deeper understanding of the ecosystem and its components that are
prone to impacts of climate change. It is hinged on the following framework as
shown in the figure below:
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Figure 26 Generalized climate change adaptation framework from Glick et al.
(2011).
Increase adaptive capacity means reduced system vulnerability as shown the figure
below
Figure 27 Relation of adaptive capacity and vulnerability

source: Engle (2011)
Conservation Targets and Description

The conservation targets in National Parks are plants, animals, natural habitats and
ecosystems that show unique properties. These targets translate into the values
for which these parks are conserved. In conserving these parks, surrounding
62
communities are equally protected in different ways. The table below gives the
details of conservation targets in each National Park.
Table 6 National Parks and their conservation Targets
National Conservation targets – species, habitats and ecosystems

Park
QENP Savannah vegetation, Cats- lions, herbivorous animals, crater lakes, Kazinga channel,
Lake George.
Queen Elizabeth National Park is understandably Uganda’s most popular tourist

destination. The park’s diverse ecosystems, which include sprawling savanna, shady,
humid forests, sparkling lakes and fertile wetlands, make it the ideal habitat for
classic big game, ten primate species including chimpanzees and over 600 species of
birds.
Set against the backdrop of the jagged Rwenzori Mountains, the park’s magnificent
vistas include dozens of enormous craters carved dramatically into rolling green hills,
panoramic views of the Kazinga Channel with its banks lined with hippos, buffalo and
elephants, and the endless Ishasha plains, whose fig trees hide lions ready to pounce on
herds of unsuspecting Uganda kob.
RMNP Vegetation- montane type, glaciers, rivers, landscape;
Recognized as a World Heritage site in 1994 and Ramsar site; spectacular Mt Stanley's
Margherita Peak;
The lower slopes are blanketed in moorland, bamboo and rich, moist montane
forest. Huge tree-heathers and colorful mosses are draped across the mountainside
with giant lobelias and “everlasting flowers”, creating an enchanting, fairytale scene;
Rwenzori Mountains National Park protects the highest parts of the 120km-long and
65km-wide Rwenzori mountain range. The National Park hosts 70 mammals and 217 bird
species including 19 Albertine Rift endemics, as well as some of the world’s rarest
vegetation.
KNP Vegetation – Tropical forest, animals- cats, monkeys, fish;
A home to Chimpazee; It also contains over 375 species of birds and 351 tree species;
wild pigs and varied fish species
Forest cover, interspersed with patches of grassland and swamp, dominates the
northern and central parts of the park on an elevated plateau;
Kibale’s varied altitude supports different types of habitat, ranging from wet tropical
forest on the Fort Portal plateau to woodland and savanna on the rift valley floor.
SNP It is the only tract of true lowland tropical forest in East Africa, hosting 441 recorded
and 53 mammals.
Large areas of this low-lying park may flood during the wet season, a brief reminder of
the time when the entire valley lay at the bottom of a lake for seven million years.
Four distinct ethnic groups live near the park – Bwamba farmers live along the base of
the Rwenzori while the Bakonjo cultivate the mountain slopes. Batuku cattle keepers
inhabit on the open plains and Batwa pygmies, traditionally hunter and gathers, live on
the edge of the forest.
MFNP Landscape, vegetation, rivers, animals
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The park is bisected by the Victoria Nile, which plunges 45m over the remnant rift
valley wall, creating the dramatic Murchison Falls, the centerpiece of the park and the
final event in an 80km stretch of rapids. The mighty cascade drains the last of the
river's energy, transforming it into a broad, placid stream that flows quietly across the
rift valley floor into Lake Albert. This stretch of river provides one of Uganda's most
remarkable wildlife spectacles. Regular visitors to the riverbanks include elephants,
giraffes and buffaloes; while hippos, Nile crocodiles and aquatic birds are permanent
residents.
KVNP Landscape, vegetation, rivers, animals
A savannah landscape from Apoka, in the heart of the park extending far beyond the
gazetted area, towards horizons outlined by distant mountain ranges;
Kidepo and Narus rivers;
The Cheetah that is absent in other National Parks in Uganda
The local communities around the park include pastoral Karamojong people, similar to
the Maasai of Kenya, and the IK, a hunter-gatherer tribe whose survival is threatened.
BINP Landscape, impenetrable forest, animals
It protects an estimated 400 mountain gorillas – roughly half of the world’s population,
including several habituated groups, which can be tracked.
This biologically diverse region also provides shelter to a further 120 mammals,
including several primate species such as baboons and chimpanzees, as well as
elephants and antelopes.
There are around 350 species of birds hosted in this forest, including 23 Albertine Rift
endemics.
There is the pygmy culture with its people, one of the rare and actually threatened
group of human beings
MGNP Landscape, vegetation, animals –Gorilla etc.
As its name suggests, it was created to protect the rare mountain gorillas that inhabit
its dense forests, and it is also an important habitat for the endangered golden
monkey.
As well as being important for wildlife, the park also has a huge cultural significance, in
particular for the indigenous Batwa pygmies. This tribe of hunter-gatherers was the
forest’s “first people”, and their ancient knowledge of its secrets remains unrivalled.
Mgahinga’s most striking features are its three conical, extinct volcanoes, part of the
spectacular Virunga Range that lies along the border region of Uganda, Congo and
Rwanda.
MENP Land scape, vegetation and fauna
Mount Elgon National Park is home to over 300 species of birds, including the
endangered Lammergeyer. The higher slopes are protected by National Parks in Uganda
and Kenya, creating an extensive trans-boundary conservation area which has been
declared a UNESCO Man & Biosphere Reserve.
A climb on Mt. Elgon’s deserted moorlands unveils a magnificent and uncluttered
wilderness without the summit-oriented approach common to many mountains: the
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ultimate goal on reaching the top of Mt. Elgon is not the final ascent to the 4321m
Wagagai Peak, but the descent into the vast 40km² caldera.
Mt Elgon is home to two tribes, the Bagisu and the Sabiny, with the marginalized
Ndorobos forced to dwell deep within the forest of Benet.
The Bagisu, also known as the BaMasaba, consider Mount Elgon to be the embodiment
of their founding father Masaba and refer to the mountain by this name
LMNP Vegetation, lake, rivers, animals
It is a habitat to about 350 bird species but also zebra, impala, eland, buffalo, oribi,
Defassa waterbuck, leopard, hippo, hyena, topi and reedbuck.
The park was once covered by open savanna, now contains much woodland as there are
no elephants to feed on wooded vegetation.
The western part of the park, the savanna, is interspersed with rocky ridges and
forested gorges.
5.2.1 National Parks and their exposure to Climate

Change Impacts
Exposure describes the nature and degree to which a system is exposed to
significant climatic variations and change (IPCC, 2001). The numerical values
denote the degree of exposure. The higher the value the more the component is
exposed.
Table 7 Levels of exposure in the National Parks
Exposure
National Nature degree value Rationale

Park
QENP Surrounding ++ 2 Derive benefits from park but these benefits can be
communities strengthened outside the park
Water bodies +++ 3 Crater lakes form part of the park ecology
Vegetation ++ 2 Made of resilient species the grass and woody

species
Animals +++ 3 Responds quickly to high temperatures

species
RMNP Surrounding +++ 3 Derive benefits from park but these benefits cannot
communities easily be strengthened outside the park. Park
altitude presents services irreplaceable outside this
altitude
Water bodies +++ 3 Magnificent Lake formations form part of the park
ecology
Vegetation ++ 2 Made of resilient species at varying altitude
65
Animals +++ 3 Responds quickly to higher or lower temperatures
species
KNP Surrounding + 1 Derive benefits from park but these benefits can be
Water bodies ++ 1 River systems form part of the park ecology

especially with fish species, but vegetation type
shields the rivers from higher exposure
Vegetation + 1 Made of ever green tropical forest that regulates the

local climate.
Animals + 1 Highly cushioned by tropical forest from high

species temperatures
SNP Surrounding ++ 2 Derive benefits from park but these benefits can be
Water bodies +++ 3 Hot springs and river systems form part of the park
ecology and are highly exposed to weather extremes
Vegetation ++ 2 Made of resilient species the grass and tree species

species
MFNP Surrounding ++ 2 Derive benefits from park but these benefits can be
Water bodies +++ 3 River systems form part of the park ecology and are
highly exposed to weather extremes – floods and
drying

species
KVNP Surrounding +++ 3 Derive benefits from park but these benefits can be
communities strengthened outside the park. Area associated with
extreme climatic conditions
highly exposed to weather extremes
Animals ++ 2 Animal species are resilient but there are also

species refugia sites
BINP Surrounding ++ 2 Derive benefits from park but these benefits can be
Water bodies ++ 2 Not highly exposed to weather extremes
Vegetation + 1 Moist forested and capable local climate regulation
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Animals + 1 Cushioned by tropical forest
species
MGNP Surrounding ++ 2 Derive benefits from park but these benefits can be
Water bodies ++ 2 Not highly exposed to weather extremes
Animals ++ 2 Responds quickly to high temperatures

species
MENP Surrounding +++ 3 Derive benefits from park but these benefits cannot
communities easily strengthened outside the park
highly exposed to weather extremes
Vegetation ++ 2 Made of resilient species
Animals + 1 Little is known about their exposure levels to climate

species change
LMNP Surrounding ++ 2 Derive benefits from park but these benefits can be
Water bodies +++ 3 Lake and wetland systems form part of the park
ecology and are highly exposed to weather extremes
Vegetation +++ 3 Made of made of a changing habitat type from

grassland to Acacia hockii woodland
Animals +++ 3 Highly exposed but very resilient

species
From the above scores, species of animals are more exposed to climate change
than other ecosystem components by at least one fold. It therefore means that
strategies to conserve animal species under a changing climate need to be more
robust than other ecosystem components. In terms of resources, financial
requirements should be one fold more than those resources allocated for other
components.
Kibale National Park is less exposed to climate change impacts. This however, does
not mean that there should not be modalities for building more resilience for the
park.
5.2.2 National Parks and level of their Sensitivities to
Climate Change Impacts
Sensitivity is “degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or
beneficially, by climate variability or change. The effect may be direct (e.g., a
change in plant yield in response to a change in the mean, range or variability of
temperature) or indirect (e.g., damages caused by an increase in the frequency of
67
coastal flooding due to sea level rise)” (IPCC, 2007). Given the conservation
targets of each National Park, the components that are therefore sensitive to
impacts of climate change and levels of sensitivities are given.
Table 8 National Parks and Sensitivity
National Conservation targets – species, habitats and Sensitivity Sensi

Park ecosystems tivity
score
QENP Savannah vegetation, Cats- lions, herbivorous Increase in invasive plant 3

animals, crater lakes, Kazinga channel, Lake species in the Savannah
George. vegetation;
The park’s diverse ecosystems, which include Increased straying of the

sprawling savanna, shady, humid forests, Mammals into community
sparkling lakes and fertile wetlands, make it the gardens especially during
ideal habitat for classic big game, ten primate periods of low foliage in
species including chimpanzees and over 600 the park such as elephants
species of birds.
Increased Evaporation and
Set against the backdrop of the jagged Rwenzori siltation of crater lakes,
Mountains, the park’s magnificent vistas include
dozens of enormous craters carved dramatically Abundance and species
into rolling green hills, panoramic views of richness of aquatic species
the Kazinga Channel with its banks lined with in the lake and rivers,
hippos, buffalo and elephants, and the endless
Ishasha plains, whose fig trees hide lions ready Drought, wild fires,
to pounce on herds of unsuspecting Uganda kob.
RMNP Vegetation- montane type, glaciers, rivers, Change of vegetation 3

landscape; types, increased
deglaciation, floods
The National Park hosts 70 mammals and 217 downstream;
bird species including 19 Albertine Rift
endemics, as well as some of the world’s rarest
vegetation.
KNP Vegetation – Tropical forest, animals- cats, Change in species 1

monkeys, fish; composition, abundance of
animal species.
351 tree species have been recorded in the park,
some rise to over 55m and are over 200 years
old.
Kibale’s varied altitude supports different types
of habitat, ranging from wet tropical forest on
the Fort Portal plateau to woodland and savanna
on the rift valley floor.
Kibale is one of Africa’s foremost research

68
sites. While many researchers focus on
the chimpanzees and other primates found in the
park, others are investigating Kibale’s
ecosystems, wild pigs and fish species, among
other topics.
Kibale National Park contains one of the loveliest
and most varied tracts of tropical forest in
Uganda. Forest cover, interspersed with patches
of grassland and swamp, dominates the northern
and central parts of the park on an elevated
plateau.
Kibale is famously known for Chimpanzee
tracking
The park is home to a total of 70 mammal

species, most famously 13 species of primate
including the chimpanzee.
It also contains over 375 species of birds
SNP Vegetation, rivers, animals; Change in vegetation 2

patterns, river water
Birding in Semuliki volume, change in animal
species abundances,
Birders who make it to Semuliki was rewarded
drought, wild fires,
with some of Africa’s best forest birding.
Cultural Encounters in Semuliki
The Batwa’s hunter-gatherer lifestyle means
they have always been dependent on Semuliki
forest for food, shelter, medicine and tools,
though this is beginning to change as a result of
interaction with other local communities.
Hot Springs in Semuliki
Hike through the monkey-filled forest to these
boiling, gushing springs, and cook your eggs and
plantain in the bubbling waters.
Game drives in Semuliki
Three tracks cross the savannah grassland of

Toro Semliki Wildlife Reserve.
Hiking and Nature Walks in Semuliki
The 13km Kirumia Trail runs through the heart of
the forest to the Semuliki River. This 8 hour
round trip starts at 8am and is perfect for
birders.
MFNP Landscape, vegetation, rivers, animals; Change in landscape – falls, 2
delta, vegetation changes –
Murchison Falls National Park lies at the northern increased Combretum
end of the Albertine Rift Valley, where the species, reduced water
sweeping Bunyoro escarpment tumbles into vast, volume, drought, wild
palm-dotted savanna. First gazetted as a game
reserve in 1926, it is Uganda's largest and oldest
69
conservation area, hosting 76 species of fires, changes in animals
mammals and 451 birds abundances –lions.
The park is bisected by the Victoria Nile, which
plunges 45m over the remnant rift valley wall,
creating the dramatic Murchison Falls, the
centerpiece of the park and the final event in an
80km stretch of rapids. The mighty cascade
drains the last of the river's energy, transforming
it into a broad, placid stream that flows quietly
across the rift valley floor into Lake Albert. This
stretch of river provides one of Uganda's most
remarkable wildlife spectacles. Regular visitors
to the riverbanks include elephants, giraffes and
buffaloes; while hippos, Nile crocodiles and
aquatic birds are permanent residents.
KVNP Landscape, vegetation, rivers, animals; The park contains two 3
rivers – Kidepo and Narus –
The local communities around the park include which disappear in the dry
pastoral Karamojong people, similar to the season, leaving just pools
Maasai of Kenya, and the IK, a hunter-gatherer for the wildlife.
tribe whose survival is threatened.
Drought, wild fires,
Gazetted as a National Park in 1962, it has a
profusion of big game and hosts over 77 mammal
species as well as around 475 bird species.
During the dry season, the only permanent water
in the park is found in wetlands and remnant
pools in the broad Narus Valley near Apoka.
These seasonal oases, combined with the open,
savannah terrain, make the Narus Valley the
park’s prime game viewing location.
BINP Vegetation; Changes in vegetation 1

types
Home to half of the World’s Mountain Gorilla
population, it is also the only area in the world
that hosts both the highly endangered and
globally significant Mountain Gorilla and the
Chimpanzee in the same habitat. With minimal
human disturbance, coupled with community
benefits arising out of eco tourism the
conservation of the endangered mountain gorilla
and other unique biodiversity of the site is
enhanced
MGNP Vegetation, animals –Gorilla etc. Changes in vegetation 1

types, changes in Gorilla
The park includes three of the Virunga volcanoes population.
- Mt Muhabura (4,127 m), Mt Gahinga (3,474 m)
from which the park derives its name, and Mt
Sabinyo (3,645 m). This park forms part of the
home of the world’s Mountain Gorilla population
and the Golden Monkey species.
MENP Land scape, rivers, vegetation; Increased erosion, 3

changing water volumes
70
Mt Elgon is home to two tribes, the Bagisu and change in vegetation to
the Sabiny, with the marginalized Ndorobos human encroachment.
forced to dwell deep within the forest of Benet.
The Bagisu, also known as the

BaMasaba, consider Mount Elgon to be the
embodiment of their founding father Masaba and
refer to the mountain by this name.
The mountain’s cool heights offer respite from

the hot plains below, with the higher altitudes
providing a refuge for flora and fauna.
Mount Elgon National Park is home to over 300

species of birds, including the endangered
Lammergeyer. The higher slopes are protected
by National Parks in Uganda and Kenya, creating
an extensive trans-boundary conservation area
which has been declared a UNESCO Man &
Biosphere Reserve.
LMNP Vegetation, lake; fauna Change in vegetation type, 3

reduced lake water
The Lake Mburo- Nakivale ecosystem is a Ramsar volume,
site which is an Important Bird Area, particularly
important as a breeding area for the regionally Drought, wild fires,
endemic shoebill (vulnerable) and hosts the
African fin foot which is endemic to Lake Mburo.
The park is a habitat to the papyrus yellow
warbler (Chloropeta gracilirostris) (near
threatened). The park also hosts a number of
migratory birds both Palearctic and continental
birds, examples of which include the Abdmin
stock and the pink-backed pelicans.
Lake Mburo National Park is the only park with

significant populations of the Impala, eland, topi
and zebras in Uganda. Although efforts have
been made to translocate some impalas to
Katonga, it takes a longtime to build the viable
populations.
The Ishasha Sector in QENP is the only other area

where topi can be found though in small
numbers. Elands and zebras are also found in
Kidepo but the populations are equally small.
Lake Mburo therefore remains the only
important strong hold as far as populations of
impalas, eland, zebra and topi are concerned.
Lake Mburo is a critical water body within the

River Rwizi catchment area that drains into Lake
Victoria, providing direct and indirect values
such as modification of climate to the
surrounding environment and communities. It is
the only source of permanent water in the area
providing water for both wildlife and livestock
71
Communities around these National Parks are sensitive to climate change impacts
in the parks because they drive essential services as shown below:
Figure 28 Communities around the national Parks and Ecosystem services

Using the matrix, each park can thus be assessed for its main services for its
conservation. Table 10 below gives the details.
Table 9 National Parks and Ecosystem Services
National Park Ecosystem Services
QENP Food – fisheries stock, water- channel and crater lakes, Aesthetic values
RMNP Aesthetic values, Rain fall regulation
KNP Rain fall regulation, Fire wood
SNP Aesthetic values, medicine – the hot spring, Rain fall regulation
MFNP Aesthetic values – the falls and the Nile delta, the Cats
KVNP Aesthetic values – the landscape
72
BINP Aesthetic values and Rain fall regulation
MGNP Aesthetic values- the Gorilla and Rain fall regulation
MENP Aesthetic values, rainfall regulation
LMNP Aesthetic values and Rain fall regulation
5.2.3 Vulnerability profile of the National Parks

The product of each park’s exposure along with it sensitivity was used to produce a
vulnerability profile. The red shade implies that the park in question is more
vulnerable to climate change impacts.
Table 10 Vulnerability profile of the National Parks
National Exposure Sensitivity Vulnerability Vulnerability Description

Park score Score Profile
QENP 2.5 3 7.5 More vulnerable
RMNP 2.75 3 8.25 More vulnerable
KNP 1 1 1 Less vulnerable
SNP 2.5 2 5 Moderate

vulnerable
MFNP 2.5 2 5 Moderate

vulnerable
KVNP 2.5 3 7.5 More vulnerable
BINP 1.5 1 1.5 Less vulnerable
MGNP 2 1 2 Less vulnerable
MENP 2.25 3 6.75 More vulnerable
LMNP 2.75 3 8.25 More vulnerable
73
5.2.4 National Parks and adaptation to the climate
change Impacts
Adaptation refers to all those responses to climate change that may be used to
reduce vulnerability. (Vulnerability is susceptibility to harm or damage potential. It
considers such factors as the ability of a system to cope or absorb stress or impacts
and to “bounce back” or recover.) Adaptation can also refer to actions designed to
take advantage of new opportunities that may arise as a result of climate change.
In assessing climate change impacts, it is imperative to take adaptation into
account. Plants, animals, and humans not simply continue on as they have without
climate change but are quite likely to modify their behaviour. Plants, animals, and
ecosystems may migrate to new locations. Humans may change their behaviour to
cope with a different climate (e.g., more heating/cooling, switch crops) or if
necessary may migrate. To fully account for vulnerability to climate change, an
assessment of impacts needs to account for those adaptations that are likely or
even reasonable to assume to happen. Without assessment of such adaptations,
the impacts researchers could well overstate the potential negative effects of
climate change. An additional reason for assessing adaptation is to inform policy
makers about what they can do to reduce the risks of climate change.
There are potentially many adaptation measures that may be adopted in response
to climate change. The Second Assessment Report of IPCC Working Group II
mentioned or described 228 different adaptation measures (IPCC, 1995).
It is useful therefore to classify adaptation measures using an overall framework. A
commonly used classification groups adaptation measures into eight categories
(Burton et al., 1993):
❖ Bear losses. All other adaptation measures may be compared with the
baseline response of “doing nothing” except bearing or accepting the losses.
In theory, bearing loss occurs when those affected have no capacity to
respond in any other ways (for example, in extremely poor communities) or
where the costs of adaptation measures are considered to be high in
relation to the risk or the expected damages.
❖ Share losses. This type of adaptation response involves sharing the losses
among a wider community. Such actions take place in traditional societies
and in the most complex, high-tech societies. In traditional societies, many
mechanisms exist to share losses among a wider community, such as
extended families and village-level or similar small-scale communities. At
the other end of the spectrum, large-scale societies share losses through
public relief, rehabilitation, and reconstruction paid for from public funds.
Sharing losses can also be achieved through private insurance.
❖ Modify the threat. For some risks, it is possible to exercise a degree of
control over the environmental threat itself. When this is a “natural” event
such as a flood or a drought, possible measures include flood control works
(dams, dikes, levees). For climate change, the major modification
possibility is to slow the rate of climate change by reducing greenhouse gas
74
emissions and eventually stabilising greenhouse concentrations in the
atmosphere. In the language of the UNFCCC, such measures are referred to
as mitigation of climate change and are considered to be in a different
category of response from adaptation measures.
❖ Prevent effects. A frequently used set of adaptation measures involves steps
to prevent the effects of climate change and variability. An example would
be for agriculture: changes in crop management practices such as increased
irrigation water, additional fertiliser, and pest and disease control.
❖ Change use. Where the threat of climate change makes the continuation of
an economic activity impossible or extremely risky, consideration can be
given to changing the use. For example, a farmer may choose to substitute a
more drought tolerant crop or switch to varieties with lower moisture.
Similarly, crop land may be returned to pasture or forest or other uses may
be found such as recreation, wildlife refuges, or National Parks.
❖ Change location. A more extreme response is to change the location of
economic activities. There is considerable speculation, for example, about
relocating major crops and farming regions away from areas of increased
aridity and heat to areas that are currently cooler and which may become
more attractive for some crops in the future (Rosenzweig and Parry, 1994).
❖ Research. The process of adaptation can also be advanced by research into
new technologies and new methods of adaptation.
❖ Educate, inform, and encourage behavioural change. Another type of
adaptation is the dissemination of knowledge through education and public
information campaigns, leading to behavioural change. Such activities have
been little recognised and given little priority in the past, but are likely to
assume increased importance as the need to involve more communities,
sectors, and regions in adaptation becomes apparent.
❖ The IPCC Technical Guidelines (Carter et al., 1994) include another category
of adaptation called restoration. This is described as follows: “Restoration,
which aims to restore a system to its original condition following damage or
modification due to climate”
Increasing adaptive capacity
⌑ If adaptation of various kinds is to be used as an effective way of responding
to climate change, measures to increase adaptive capacity was needed.
What determines adaptive capacity? Probably the strongest explanatory
variable for adaptive capacity is wealth. The wealthier nations, as well as
wealthier communities and individuals within nations, have the resources at
their disposal to seek out and pay for adaptation options to reduce
vulnerability and to recover from adverse impacts.
⌑ access to information and especially to technology and technological skills
75
⌑ The strengths of the institutions of government and of the private sector are
also important
⌑ The degree of flexibility in a society. Adaptation to climate change requires
changes in how and where natural resources are managed.
5.3 Assessment of adaptation measures to climate change
impacts
All strategic actions for which funding is given in the management of the park are
contained in the management plans of each National Park. Therefore, the
robustness of the general management plans of the National Parks has been
assessed to understand how the issues of climate change are addressed.
Management plans robustness to climate change impacts
National Parks are arguably the most important instrument of biodiversity
conservation. To keep them fit under climate change, their management needs to
be adapted to address related direct and indirect changes. In this adaptation
assessment, an evaluation of 10 management plans with regard to their climate
change-robustness was done. First, climate change-robust conservation
management was defined using 11 principles and 44 criteria, which followed an
approach similar to sustainability standards. Later on, the evaluation of the
performance of individual management plans concerning the climate
change-robustness framework was done.
In the assessment, climate change-robustness in National Park management is
defined as conservation management that is effective in sustaining the
functionality of a protected area despite the myriad of potential impacts
associated with climate change. Climate change-robustness heavily builds upon a
sturdy fundament of effective management combined with add-ons specifically
tailored to tackling climate change. The presented principles hence elaborate on,
rather than contradict, existing criteria for evaluating management effectiveness
in addressing issues related to climate change.
Specifically, the following research questions are addressed:
✔ How does management planning of National Parks perform with regard to
climate change impacts? How do different National Parks compare in their
robustness of the general management plans to deal with climate change
impacts?
✔ How do individual principles and criteria of climate change-robustness
perform across National Parks? Which of these principles and criteria have
received comparatively better attention, and which ones have so far been
neglected?
76
Table 11 Principles and criteria of climate change-robustness
Principles Criteria
1 Addressing climate change 1.1 Climate change in situation analysis
1.2 Climate change in goal setting
1.3 Climate change in strategies
1.4 Climate change in monitoring and research
2 Ecosystem functionality & 2.1 Prioritize higher-order systems

resilience 2.2 Prioritize functionality over patterns
2.3 Flexible protection
2.4 Biomass diversity and network

3 Adequate spatial dimension 3.1 Functional ecological boundaries
3.2 Continuity and connectedness
3.3 Regional context
3.4 Adjacent ecosystems
4 Adequate time dimension 4.1 Long-term perspective

4.2 Future changes
4.3 Activities with different time horizons

4.4 Long-term impact of activities
5 Holistic knowledge management 5.1 Knowledge tracking
5.2 Diverse knowledge forms

5.3 Diverse disciplines
5.4 Knowledge exchange
6 Systemic and strategic coherence 6.1 System interaction
6.2 Vertical nestedness

6.3 Horizontal coherence
6.4 Inter-protected area management
77
7 Adaptive management 7.1 Iterative planning
7.2 Systematic monitoring
7.3 Adaptive target and goal setting

7.4 Evaluation of effectiveness
8 Proactive risk management 8.1 Precautionary principle

8.2 Future target vulnerability
8.3 Scenario planning
8.4 Robust strategies
9 Institutional capacity building 9.1 Decentralization and responsibility

9.2 Transdisciplinary of team
9.3 Knowledge and research capacities
9.4 Methodological training

10 Public accountability and 10.1 Participation
acceptance
10.2 Regular public reporting
10.3 Acceptance-increasing strategies

10.4 Public information
11 Matrix and stakeholder 11.1 Regional context

management
11.2 Stakeholder cooperation
11.3 Concerted strategies
11.4 Cooperative ecosystem-based climate
management
The degree of accordance of the eleven principles in the management plans was
evaluated by scoring the plans against each of the respective four criteria of each
principle on a 0–2 scale similar to the analytical approaches of studies on plan
quality. In the present study a score of 0 was given if the criterion was not at all
met by the plan or 1 if the criterion was only implicitly acknowledged or partly
reflected in the plan without thorough explanation. The highest possible score of 2
78
was given if the criterion had been fully and comprehensively addressed by the
plan.
For example, considering criterion 1.1Climatechange in situation analysis, a
management plan would get a score of 0 if climate change was not mentioned at
all in the situation analysis. The plan would receive a score of 1 if it mentioned
climate change as a factor influencing conservation objects without further
explanation, or if it elaborated on climate change for only a small fraction of the
situation analysis while neglecting most parts of it. A score of 2 could be reached if
climate change was comprehensively included, elaborating on the impact on
biodiversity as well as other factors, such as land use or infrastructure
development.
The general climate change-robustness index for each management plan by
summing the actual scores of each of the 44 criteria (max. score 88) was
computed. This index represents the overall performance of the 10 plans against
the criteria of the evaluation framework. Later the scores were standardized and
normalized in the original plan score in percent to produced a guidance table as
shown below
Table 12. Classification of performance of climate change-robustness principles as per rate and
degree of accordance
Degree of adoption Rate of adoption (breadth score)

(depth score)
Very high High Low Very low
(>0,75) (0.5–0.75) (0.25–0.5) (<0.25)
Very high (>0.75) Very strong Very strong Strong Moderate
High (0.5–0.75) Very strong Strong Moderate Weak
Low (0.3–0.5) Strong Moderate Weak Very weak
Very low (<0.3) Moderate Weak Very weak Very weak
National Park Degree of adoption comments

(depth score) of
climate change
dimension in general
management plan
QENP Very low (<0.3) Only climate of the park is mentioned and nothing more
RMNP Very high (>0.75) Rate of adoption is very strong because large facets of
climate change are covered in the plan
KNP High (0.5–0.75) Observed climate change impacts as well as mitigation

measures are provided
SNP Very low (<0.3) No details about climate change are given in the plan.
79
MFNP Very low (<0.3) Issues related to climate change are not explored in the
plan.
KVNP Low (0.3–0.5) Little is mentioned about climate and only emergency of
Harrisonia abbysinica due to climate change and need to
remove it is mentioned
BINP High (0.5–0.75) Observed climate change impacts as well as mitigation

measures provided
MGNP High (0.5–0.75) Observed climate change impacts as well as mitigation

measures provided
MENP Very low (<0.3) Only climate of the park is mentioned and that climate
change impacts in the area are not known.
LMNP Very low (<0.3) Only climate of the park is mentioned and that climate
change impacts in the area are not known.
From the point of view of the general management plans of the National Parks, it
is apparent that there have not been detailed capture of the facets that regard
climate change impacts. It points to the fact that, on one hand, the planning unit,
had not in the past envisaged climate change impacts as important components of
focus in the parks, and that on other, the studies about climate changes impacts
are limited and little is known in that regard.
Given that the general management plans are guiding conservation documents for
National Park protection, it calls for inclusion of the climate change dimension in
the conservation and management documents.
5.4 Recommendations for conservation planning for the
management of wildlife resources
When it comes to climate change mitigation, strategies can be grouped into two
Categories: technological solutions or changes in economic structure, societal
organization, or individual behaviour (Swart et al. 2003). From the perspective of
natural resources conservation, mitigation activities include reducing deforestation
and forest degradation, increasing afforestation and reforestation, management
interventions to maintain or increase forest carbon density, increasing carbon
stocks in wood products and enhancing fuel substitution. Mitigation activities
targeted at natural resources conservation generally serve the dual purposes of
reducing greenhouse (GHG) emissions from anthropogenic sources and enhancing
carbon ‘‘sink’’
Table 13 Recommendations for conservation planning in National Park
National Recommendations for conservation planning

Park
QENP Vegetation manipulation

Carryout management oriented research
Intensify monitoring activities and data collection and storage for future planning
Support stakeholders with programs on reproductive health, human and animal disease
interventions
80
Increase capacity building on climate change
Develop and implement a fire management plan;
There is a need for sustainable financing mechanism to support implementation of

plans to mitigate impacts and adapt management of the park under the changing
circumstances
RMNP Conduct research

Build capacity for research, rescues, and flora/fauna interpretation in line with the
changing environments.
Intensify climate change awareness efforts
Uphold cultural values for the neighboring communities
Tree planting around the Park
Promote alternatives and diversify tourism activities
Implement strategies within a fire management plan
Review the tourism infrastructure designs to adapt to the changes

circumstances
KNP Carry out research on the impacts of climate change on the park ecosystem;
Carry out awareness on the impacts of climate change to staff, partners and
communities;
Identify and support implementation of adaptation and mitigation projects to address
impacts of climate change in and around the park;
Monitor phenology sample plots established in the park; collect and analyze the data
circumstances
SNP Eradication of exotics

Community tree planting (selected spp)
Data capture and management
Conducting climate change related research
Draft and implement natural resource bylaws and Ordinances
Encourage communities to diversify crop production
Support efforts to control population increase
Intensify community awareness through conservation messages targeting important
stakeholders such as political leaders

circumstances
MFNP There is a need for sustainable financing mechanism to support implementation of

circumstances
KVNP There is a need for sustainable financing mechanism to support implementation of

circumstances
BINP Conduct community sensitization and provide support for woodlot establishment
Establish a climate change mitigation and Adaptation fund (CMAF-BINP);
circumstances
81
MGNP Write climate change project proposals and lobby for climate change support to
implement the Proposals;
Initiate and support climate change related researches within and outside the park
and implement recommendations;
Initiate and implement conservation incentives for private-led conservation
innovations meant to address negative impacts of climate
change on the park ecosystem;
Identify and Carry out habitat manipulation in two demonstration sites to observe the
gorilla behavior;
Establish a voluntary climate change mitigation and adaptation fund (CMAF- MGNP).
circumstances
MENP More climate change related research needed;

Create more awareness specially to attract political will in conservation;
Remove invasive and exotic spp
Encourage better soil conservation practices within adjacent communities;
Undertake forest restoration in both the park and outside the park
Work with relevant stakeholders in conservation to address climatic impacts in the
region;
Create gene banks/zoos for species that are likely to get extinct in future;
Vegetation manipulation by use of various means e.g. fire

circumstances;
LMNP Introduction of relevant animal spp e.g. Giraffe, elephants, etc. to address habitat
changes;
Habitat manipulation backed by appropriate research;
Climate change awareness;
Network with other stakeholders to address climate change impacts in and around the
park;

circumstances;
Overall, it is recommended that UWA establishes a socio-ecological monitoring unit

that will set permanent observation study points in the National Park to obtain
very dependable data for conservation planning
6.0 References
A. Colls, N. Ash, and N. Ikkala (2009). Ecosystem-based Adaptation: a natural

response to climate change. Gland, Switzerland: IUCN. 16pp.
Berkes, F. and C. Folke. 2000. Linking Social and Ecological Systems: Management,
Practices and Social Mechanisms. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge,
UK.
Campbell, A., V. Kapos, J.P.W. Scharlemann, P. Bubb, A. Chenery, L. Coad, B.
Dickson, N. Doswald, M.S.I. Khan, F. Kershaw and M. Rashid. 2009. Review of
82
the Literature on the Links between Biodiversity and Climate Change:
Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation. Technical Series No. 42, Secretariat of
the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). Montreal, Canada. 124 pp.
Colls, A., N. Ash and N. Ikkala. 2009. Ecosystem-Based Adaptation: A Natural
Response to Climate Change. International Union for the Conservation of
Nature (IUCN). Gland, Switzerland. 16 pp.
Engle, N. L. (2011). Adaptive capacity and its assessment. Global environmental
change, 21(2), 647-656.
Hagerman, S., H. Dowlatabadi, T. Satterfield, and T. McDaniels. 2010. Expert Views
on Biodiversity Conservation in an Era of Climate Change. Global
Environmental Change, 20:192-207.
Heller, N.E. and E.S. Zavaleta. 2009. Biodiversity management in the face of
climate change: A review of 22 years of recommendations. Biological
Conservation, 143:14-32.
Hellmann, JJ, Byers, JE, Bierwagen, B, Dukes, JS. 2008. Five potential
consequences of climate Change for invasive species. Conservation Biology,
22(3): 534–543.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2007. Summary for Policy
Makers. In: M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and
C.E. Hanson (eds.). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Assessment and
Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, UK.
McCarty, J.P. 2001. Ecological consequences of recent climate change.

Conservation Biology 15(2):320-331.
Mcsweeney, C., New, M., Lizcano, G., & Lu, X. (2010). The UNDP Climate Change
Country Profiles: Improving the accessibility of observed and projected climate
information for studies of climate change in developing countries. Bulletin of the
American Meteorological Society, 91(2), 157-166.
OECD. 2008. Handbook on constructing composite indicators: methodology and
user guide. Paris, OECD Publishing.
Parmesan, C. and G. Yohe. 2003. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change
impacts across natural systems. Nature 421:37-42.
Malcolm, J. R., & Markham, A. (1997). Climate change threats to the National
Parks and protected areas of the United States and Canada. World Wildlife Fund.
Walker, B., & Steffen, W. (1997). An overview of the implications of global change
for natural and managed terrestrial ecosystems. Conservation ecology, 1(2).
Taylor, R.G., Milleham, L., Tindimugaya.C., Majugu, A., Muwanga, A., Nakileza,
B. 2006. Recent deglaciation in the Rwenzori Mountains of East Africa due to
rising air temperature. Geophys. Res. Letters. (in press)
World Bank. 2010. Convenient Solutions to an Inconvenient Truth: Ecosystem Based
Approaches to Climate Change. World Bank. Washington DC, USA.
WCS (2016) Nationally Threatened Species for Uganda.
83
84
7.0 Appendix I: CONSULTATIVE MEETING GUIDE/TOOL
SECTION 1: Supply of ecosystem services

1. Which services and benefits does the community get from the surrounding
environment/landscape?
2. Are there any challenges facing the continued existence/supply of each of
the mentioned benefits/ecosystem services?
a. What challenges/pressures?
Use the matrix
Ecosystem Services Any challenge of What Challenges

Mentioned supply?
3. How do these challenges/pressures affect the community's wellbeing?
4. What needs to be done to remove/reduce these challenges for people to

continue realising the benefits/services?
SECTION 2: ASSESSING VULNERABILITY: CLIMATE RISKS AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITY

i. Has there been any change in the temperatures in your area over the last 25
years?
● Please describe the changes you have observed
● Identify the periods most prone, (to be compared with weather
records).
● What, in your view, caused this change?
ii. Have there been any changes in the rainfall pattern (probe for seasonal
reliability and amount of rainfall) in your area over the last 25 years?
● Please describe the changes you have observed?
● Identify the periods most prone (to be compared with weather
records).
● What, in your view, caused this change?
iii. Which extreme climatic change events have been experienced in this area
over the last 25 years?
● For each extreme event mentioned. probe for:
a. Frequency of occurrence (including the time periods of
occurrence)
b. Severity of extreme events
85
c. What, in your view, caused this change?
Determining Exposure1:
1. What climate-related hazards has this community experienced?
2. When did they occur?
3. Are there specific groups of people prone to climate-related hazards?
a. Which ones and how?
4. Are there specific economic sectors prone to climate-related hazards?
5. Are there resources/assets prone to climate-related hazards?
Use the matrix
Climate-relat Period Most affected Most Most affected

ed hazard (s) groups of affected resources/assets?
people economic
sectors?
Determining sensitivity: The degree to which people and assets are affected,
either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or change.
1. How are the above groups of people affected by climate-related hazards?
2. What makes them prone to climate-related hazards?
3. How are the above economic sectors affected by climate-related hazards?
5. How are the above resources/assets affected by climate-related hazards?
Determine adaptive capacity: Adaptive capacity refers to capacities and

resources used to deal with impacts and recover from damage
1. Which adaptive capacities exist in this community to increase resilience

to adverse climate change impacts? Consider:
a. Knowledge: is there knowledge or expertise that might support
adaptation?
b. Technology: are there technical options to enhance adaptive
capacity?
c. Institutions: is the institutional environment contributing to
adaptive capacity?
d. Economy: which economic and financial resources are available for
enhancing adaptive capacity or implementing adaption measures?
1
the presence of people, livelihoods, species or ecosystems, environmental functions, services, and resources, infrastructure, or economic, social,
or cultural assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected
86
SECTION 3: ASSESSMENT OF MEASURES IMPLEMENTED IN THIS COMMUNITY
1. What interventions if the PAA, LG, NGO/CBO are currently implementing to

mitigate the effects of climate change on the PAA and ecosystems in this area
Ecosystem service Effect of intervention by PAA, LG, Is the effect sill

NGO/CBO existent?
Food
Water provision
Wood provision/tree
cover
Flood control
Disease control
Spiritual/recreational
and cultural benefits
Soil erosion control
Pasture provision
Other………..
87

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RAPID ASSESSMENT OF IMPACTS OF CLIMATE

CHANGE ON NATIONAL PARKS OF UGANDA

Procurement Number: UWA/ Cons SRVS/2018-19/00684

In terms of Vulnerability, forested parks such as Kibale National, Bwindi

It is recommended that UWA establishes a socio-ecological monitoring unit that

2. BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY.....................................................................................................9

3. SALIENT ASPECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE DISCOURSE AT INTERNATIONAL, REGIONAL, SUB

3.2. Sub Regional Initiatives................................................................................................. 11

3.3 National Initiatives................................................................................................................. 11

3.1. Study Area...........................................................................................................................12

3.4.1. Data collection methods............................................................................................... 14

3.2.3 Resilience and adaptation against Climate Change Impacts.................................... 17

4.0 FINDINGS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON NATIONAL PARKS....................................... 19

4.1.1 QUEEN ELIZABETH NATIONAL PARK (QENP) - Climate Change Impacts.....................19

4.1.3 KIBALE NATIONAL PARK (KNP) Observed Climate Change Impacts............................ 22

4.2 Climate change trends over years and projections in Uganda-......................................31

4.2.1 Current trends.................................................................................................................... 31

5.0 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT................................................................................................60

5.1 Exploring the possibility of EbA in National Park............................................................. 60

5.2 Vulnerability assessment for National Parks......................................................................60

5.4 Recommendations for conservation planning for the management of wildlife

7.0 Appendix I: CONSULTATIVE MEETING GUIDE/TOOL...........................................................83

Table 4 Climate change and Plant species invasiveness 58

Table 5 Possibility for possibility of EbA in National Park 60

Table 6 National Parks and their conservation Targets 62

Table 7 Levels of exposure in the National Parks 64

Table 8 National Parks and Sensitivity 67

Table 10 National Parks and Ecosystem Services 71

Table 11 Vulnerability profile of the National Parks 72

Table 12 Principles and criteria of climate change-robustness 76

Table 13. Classification of performance of climate change-robustness principles as per rate

Table 14 Recommendations for conservation planning in National Park 79

Figure 1 Map of Uganda showing the ten National Parks 12

Figure 2 Elements of the vulnerability assessment framework 14

Figure 7 Fire Sensitivity Map for L. Mburo National Park, 2015 37

Figure 8 Fire Sensitivity Map for L. Mburo National Park, 2016 38

Figure 9 Fire Sensitivity Map for L. Mburo National Park, 2017 39

Figure 10 Fire Sensitivity Map for L. Mburo National Park, 2018 40

Figure 13 13 Fire Sensitivity Map Kidepo Valley National Park, 2016 43

Figure 14 Fire Sensitivity Map Kidepo Valley National Park, 2017 44

Figure 15 Fire Sensitivity Map Kidepo Valley National Park, 2018 45

Figure 16 Fire Sensitivity Map Kidepo Valley National Park, 2019 46

Figure 17 Fire Sensitivity Map of Murchison Falls National Park, 2015 47

Figure 18 Fire Sensitivity Map of Murchison Falls National Park, 2016 48

Figure 19 Fire Sensitivity Map of Murchison Falls National Park, 2017 49

Figure 20 Fire Sensitivity Map of Murchison Falls National Park, 2018 50

Figure 21 Fire Sensitivity Map of Murchison Falls National Park, 2019 51

Figure 22 Fire Sensitivity Map of Kibale National Park, 2015 52

Figure 23 Fire Sensitivity Map of Kibale National Park, 2016 53

Figure 24 Fire Sensitivity Map of Kibale National Park, 2017 54

Figure 25 Fire Sensitivity Map of Kibale National Park, 2018 55

Figure 26 Fire Sensitivity Map of Kibale National Park, 2019 56

Figure 28 Relation of adaptive capacity and vulnerability 61

Figure 29 Communities around the national Parks and Ecosystem services 71

Human well-being, functioning ecosystems and climate change are interlinked.

Species respond differently to climate change because of differences in

Invasion of alien species into natural ecosystems is an increasing problem

3. SALIENT ASPECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE DISCOURSE AT INTERNATIONAL,

Figure 1 Map of Uganda showing the ten National Parks

There is a range of different approaches or methods that are used in the

3.4.2. Vulnerabilities Assessment of the National Parks

Figure 2 Elements of the vulnerability assessment framework

Ecosystem-based adaptation is the use of biodiversity and ecosystem services as