TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT

(CE G523)

Submitted by:

Yash Rastogi
2018H1300086P
M.E Transportation

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Choice of Land Use Development Type within Commercial and Industrial

Zoning

Kevin Gingerich, Hanna Maoh and William Anderson

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Abstract-City architects are assembling against social and economic segregation or between
residential and non-residential zones by implementation of some zoning reforms. This paper
basically deals with synergy between land use and transport facilities by designing or modeling
commercial and industrial sectors in Windsor, Ontario. Models have been designed to identify
the preference of developer for different choices of establishments. These choices have been
ranging from hotels, shopping malls, cafes for commercial establishments to garages, distribution
centers, and industrial properties for industrial establishments. Integrated land use development
study helps in understanding trend and future of zonal development and thus helps in predicting
the future development of area. The choice is designed through different models-

1) Multinomial logit,

(2) Nested logit,

(3) Multinomial logit with spatial effects,

(4) Nested logit with spatial effects

Introduction-Land being a finite natural resource is very important for survival of human
being and balanced use is required for the sustainable development of the area. Since the early
period, land use zoning has been a very important tool to identify the dominant land use pattern
and for smart utilization of area which helps in land use management strategy. Agents affecting

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the urban pattern are- 1) Planners who plan the land (2) Natives who inhabit the land (3)
Industries which uses land for their set up.

The inferences have been noted to understand consequences on economics [8] and also on
environment[1]. Large number of surveys has been conducted on residential and household areas
due to high accessibility but they have been limited in the context of industrial and commercial
areas[3]. This paper specifically deals with commercial and industrial sector of Windsor,
Ontario. Major areas of consideration are (1) existence of spatial autocorrelation affecting the
choice of establishment.[4] (2) Warehousing development is studied to understand the effect of
closeness to transportation activities on the logistics industry. This point is important due to
geographical location of Windsor as it is located on the border of Canada and United States. [5]

Non- residential developments are better to understand if homogeneity is there. General zoning
for municipality is governed from master plans. Choices have been analyzed for commercial and
industrial subtypes and are then being cross checked for the differences between industrial and
commercial land use.

Studies have shown spatial autocorrelation as positive due to choice makers between different
choices of alternatives. One choice is highly affected by the choice of other closer by decision
maker for the same option. This effect is reduced as the distance of the two decision maker
increases. Construction of houses is driven by market demand of people. They try to maximize
utility while choosing a specific location.

Modeling of Choices- The establishment type for the preferred choice at the personal land
parcel level was tested. Assuming an establishment type like commercial has been developed for
vacant land parcel (t). ROI (Rit) needs to be maximum which is dependent on choice of
development type i, responsibility of land developer n. This t will be i only if (ROI)it is greater
than (ROI)jt to maximize ROI. Rit considers 2 parts-

1) Observed part identified by site characteristic. 2) Erroneous part for unidentified

characteristics

Land developer n is not considered in notation because it can be used interchangeably with
different land parcels. Different models for probability Pit will be formulated according to
different assumptions of probability density function of error term €. For example, if error term
is following a logistic distribution pattern which is independently and identically distributed
(IID), model can be formulated as multinomial logit (MNL) model. Nested logit (NL) model is
used when the independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) is not followed. It allows many
development types to be grouped based on the similarities. Probability for getting i for land
parcel t is- Pit=PIt × Pit/I.

A spatial variable was introduced to verify spatial autocorrelation that is to measure the extent up
to which ‘n’ is influenced by nearby decision makers ‘m’. If m selects same i as n, then choice of

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n will be influenced by m. Xnm is introduced to measure this relation. It has value 1when choices
of n and m are same, otherwise 0. Closer neighbor has more effect than the distant neighbor
another term is introduced exp(βdnm) where dnm is distance between n and m. So, the combined
effect is- Sn= ∑m Xnm exp(βdnm);

Influences-
• TRANSPORTATION- Transportation facilities have a significant role in deciding the
land use pattern. Large trips are expected to occur from office and work places.
Warehousing development is generally done at places in proximity of highways for easy
storing and supplying of products.
• REAL ESTATE MARKET TRENDS- Real estate prices of real estate markets tend to
influence residential and nonresidential pattern of city. Generally, locations with high
prices are not having warehouses or storage spaces. Moreover, they attract markets or
offices. There is more possibility of development of retail in strong markets to maximize
benefit from customers.
• PARCEL GEOMETRY AND DEMOGRAPHICS-This variable has been accounted to
know the effect of shape of land in development pattern of space. Office spaces have
more area to perimeter ratio in commercial development type.

Analysis- Table 1(Explanatory variables)

Source- Kevin Gingerich ; Hanna Maoh ; and William Anderson

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 Table2 Source- Kevin Gingerich ; Hanna Maoh ; and William Anderson
Table 2 lists results of all models. They have been explained by value of ρ2. Commercial
multinomial Logit ρ2 is 0.22 whereas of NL model it is 0.31. Addition of Spatial parameter
increases value of ρ2 to 0.24 and 0.33 for MNL and NL model respectively. Value of Sn
parameter is found to be positive for retail, restaurant and office establishments indicating effect
of proximity decision makers. Results are compatible to findings of Sener et al. 2011[7]. ρ2 for
industrial multinomial logit model is 0.30. There is no statistical significance of spatial S n but the
model is still considered good as value of adjusted ρ2 is little increased.

Overall Results -
• Warehousing is nearby to rail as most activities are associated with transportation of
goods to the other side.
• Proximity to highways is significant for development.
• Negative relation is observed between residential areas and factories as people don’t
prefer to live in surrounding areas of high pollution.
• Commercial spaces are in more demand where real estate prices are high.

Conclusion-This paper tries to study commercial and industrial land use in Windsor city. It
uses Logit Models. Commercial space consists of1) office, 2) retail, 3) restaurant while industrial
space has alternatives of 1) warehouse, 2) factory. Two hypotheses are basically involved for
model estimation. First states that spatial correlation will be positive for nonresidential
establishment. [6] It was cross verified by positive parameter for restaurant, office and retail.
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This is not followed for industrial establishments. Second clearly reflects establishment of
warehouse near highways. It was shown by positive relation of HYWPRO parameter for
development.

References-
[1] Kevin Gingerich, Hanna Maoh, William Anderson (2014). “Choice of Land use
Development Type within Commercial and Industrial Zoning” Journal of Urban Planning
and Development, © ASCE, ISSN 0733-9488/04014024(9).
https://ascelibrary.org/doi/10.1061/%28ASCE%29UP.1943-5444.0000220
[2] Kanaroglou, P., and Miller, E. (1996). “Urban form, energy and the environment: A
review of issues, evidence and policy.” Urban Stud., 33(1), 7–35”
https://doi.org/10.1080%2F00420989650012095
[3] Maoh, H., and Kanaroglou, P. (2007a). “Business establishment mobility behavior in
urban areas: A microanalytical model for the city of Hamilton in Ontario, Canada.” J.
Geogr. Syst., 9(3), 229–252.
https://DOI 10.1007/s10109-007-0043-3
[4] Bhat, C., and Guo, J. (2004). “A mixed spatially correlated logit model: Formulation and
application to residential choice modeling.” Transp. Res. Part B Method., 38(2), 147–
168. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0191-2615(03)00005-5
[5] Tseng, Y., Yue, L., and Taylor, M. (2005). “The role of transportation in logistics
chain.” Proc., Eastern Asia Society of Transportation Studies, EASTS, Tokyo, Japan,
1657–1672. http://www.dphu.org/uploads/attachements/books/books_2520_0.pdf
[6] Mohammadian, A., Haider, M., and Kanaroglou, P. (2008). “Homebuilders choice
behaviour analysis.” Can. J. Reg. Sci., 31(2), 225–240
[7] Sener, I., Pendyala, R., and Bhat, C. (2011). “Accommodating spatial correlation across
choice alternatives in discrete choice models: An application to modeling residential
location choice behavior.” J. Transp. Geogr., 19(2), 294–303.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2010.03.013
[8] Páez, A. (2009). “Spatial analysis of economic systems and land use change.” Pap. Reg.
Sci., 88(2), 251–258. Sanchez, T. W. (2004). “. https://doi:10.1111/j.1435-
5957.2009.00246.x