Demographic Transition

Theory

• A more complex analysis of population change is demographic

transition theory, a thesis that links population patterns to a
society’s level of technological development.
 Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4

Level of technology Pre industrial Early industrial Mature industrial Post industrial

Population growth Very slow Rapid Slowing Very slow

Demographic Transition Theory

 Stage 1
• Preindustrial, agrarian societies have high birth rates because of the
economic value of children and the absence of birth control. Death
rates are also high because of low living standards and limited
medical technology. Deaths from outbreaks of disease cancel out
births, so population rises and falls only slightly over time. This was
the case for thousands of years in Europe before the Industrial
Revolution.
• Stage 2, the onset of industrialization, brings a demographic
transition as death rates fall due to greater food supplies and
scientific medicine. But birth rates remain high, resulting in rapid
population growth. It was during Europe’s Stage 2 that Malthus
formulated his ideas, which accounts for his pessimistic view of the
future. The world’s poorest countries today are in this high growth
stage.
• In Stage 3:
A mature industrial economy, the birth rate drops, curbing population
growth once again. Fertility falls because most children survive to
adulthood and because high living standards make raising children
expensive. In short, affluence transforms children from economic
assets into economic liabilities. Smaller families, made possible by
effective birth control, are also favored by women working outside the
home. As birth rates follow death rates downward, population growth
slows further.
• Stage 4:
Corresponds to a postindustrial economy in which the demographic
transition is complete. The birth rate keeps falling, partly because
dual-income couples gradually become the norm and partly because
the cost of raising children continues to increase. This trend, linked to
steady death rates, means that population grows only very slowly or
even decreases. This is the case today in Japan, Europe, and the United
States.
• Evaluation: Demographic transition theory suggests that the key to
population control lies in technology. Instead of the runaway
population increase feared by Malthus, this theory sees technology
slowing growth and spreading material plenty.
Technology and the Environmental Deficit

• Sociologists point a simple formula:

I= PAT,
Where I =reflects environmental impact
P= Society’s Level of Population
A= Society’s Level of Affluence
T= Society’s Level of Technology
• Sustainable Development:
• According to Brundtland Commission (World Commission on
environment and Development 1987): “Sustainable development is
development that meets the needs of the present without
compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own
needs.”
 What is new and different
about the 17 SDGs?
First, and most important, these Goals apply to every nation … and
every sector. Cities, businesses, schools, organizations, all are
challenged to act. This is called

Universality
Second, it is recognized that the Goals are all inter-connected, in a
system. We cannot aim to achieve just one Goal. We must achieve
them all. This is called

Integration
And finally, it is widely recognized that achieving these Goals involves
making very big, fundamental changes in how we live on Earth. This is
called

Transformation
Let’s take a tour …
#1: End
poverty in all
its forms
everywhere
#2: End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition
and promote sustainable agriculture
#2: End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition
and promote sustainable agriculture

#3: Ensure
healthy lives and
promote
well-being for all
at all ages
 #4: Ensure
inclusive and
quality education
for all and
promote lifelong
learning
#5: Achieve
gender equality
and empower
women and girls
#6: Ensure access to
water and sanitation for
all
#7: Ensure access to
affordable, reliable,
sustainable and
modern energy for
all
#8: Promote inclusive
and sustainable
economic growth,
employment and decent
work for all
#9: Build resilient
infrastructure,
promote sustainable
industrialization and
foster innovation
#10: Reduce
inequality within and
among countries
#11: Make cities
inclusive, safe,
resilient and
sustainable
#12: Ensure
sustainable
consumption and
#13: Take urgent action
to combat climate
change and its impacts*
#14: Conserve
and sustainably
use the oceans,
seas and marine
resources
#15: Sustainably manage forests,
combat desertification, halt and
reverse land degradation,
halt biodiversity loss
#16: Promote just, peaceful
and inclusive
societies
#17: Revitalize the
global partnership
for sustainable
development
Each goal
is
important
in itself …
Each goal And they
is are all
important connected
in itself …
 To find out more, go to

17Goals.org

And read the real documents for yourself, at

https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/topic
s

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