2030

Is Asia Ready to
Lead the World in
The capacity to survive depends upon our
ability to adjust quickly—however painful
the adjustment may be—
Lee Kuan Yew, opening speech of the Trade Union House
and Singapore Conference Hall on 15 October 1965.

radically new and

to a

different situation
The Asian Chapter Begins

Our World
in 2030
Disruption comes in many forms. The emergence Challenges & Opportunities of 2030
of the Asian century, unrelenting technological
advancements, and overpopulation of urban Globalisation & De-globalisation
spaces are all challenges to our current way of life. The World’s Centre of Gravity is Moving East
They bring radical changes to systems that have
been in place for decades. Some governments will Data & Connectivity
turn these challenges into opportunities for their Working With AI
people to thrive, others will not.1
Public Well-being
As a new world order is debated upon and built Reinventing Healthcare and
around us, we need to better understand how Providing Opportunities for Billions
to navigate the challenges and take advantage
of the opportunities in a rising Asia. Drawing on Urbanisation
Asian and Western experiences and thought, the Mastering Megacities
Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (LKYSPP)
represents academic and intellectual excellence in
the service of meaningful public policymaking.

Join us as we establish the critical areas that

policymakers and governments need to strategically
assess and plan for over the coming decades.
Globalisation & De-globalisation
The World’s
Centre of Gravity
is Moving East
For nearly a century now, small nations have maintained
independence, autonomy and self-determination by
operating within an international system of rules and
norms created by Western powers. However, that
rules-based order has weakened—leading nations’
arbitrary use of power and gradual withdrawal from
the international system signal the potential end of
globalisation and the beginning of de-globalisation.
Mass-produced goods will
become more expensive if the
trade war escalates.2
Indeed, de-globalisation is already underway.
Populism is rising as an increasing number of countries
prioritise “nation-first” concerns over international
collaboration. 2 3 Communication networks are flooded
with narratives of East-West tensions. Major powers
are reversing decades of multilateral cooperation by
withdrawing from the international rules-based order.5
Asian markets will outpopulate
the entirety of the world by 2030.
It will hold cultural influence,
economic power and political
sway over the world for the
next 50 to 100 years.3 4
The United States and China’s drawn-out trade conflict
has led scholars to speculate if it was a sign of a power
transition and if they were heading towards a “Thucydides
Trap” military clash.6 As of time of publication, trade
deals are in the works to reduce tensions between the
two nations.7
Potential military conflict aside, the global transition
from a unipolar American Century to something not yet
fully formed raises other concerns. What leadership will
By 2030, the world’s economic
centre will be situated
between India and China.3 4
Business practices, popular
culture and media narratives
will take on an Asian flavour.3
the international community have in the future? What
can small nations do toward a new order?
The rise of Asia is seemingly unstoppable, with China
and India as the world’s largest economies. Small
nations can help craft the new international system,
but the exact steps needed remain to be mapped. The
way our communities adjust to this new international
system will be fraught with risk and working out our
strategies will take the highest priority.
Data & Connectivity
Working
With AI
Artificial intelligence (AI) and robots will soon staff
40% of all jobs in the world.8 This projection evokes
apprehension about humanity’s place in a community
of tireless, mechanised workers. While digitisation
and automation enable corporations to drive rapid
revenue growth and higher productivity, those that
form the lower rungs of the workforce could be
left without the means to lift themselves above the
poverty line and improve their quality of life.8
Despite the potential risks, the majority of innovators,
leaders, and researchers are hopeful that machines
could augment human capabilities.9 Digitisation and
AI technologies are already improving the speed and
accuracy of medical diagnostics and climate change
predictions.10 In the near future, they could help
predict crop yields, track criminal movements, and
provide tailored retail services.11
Artificial Intelligence (AI) and robots
will soon staff 40% of all jobs in the world.8
By 2030, self-learning AI will be
used to optimise governance and
judicial ecosystems through law
and policy recommendations.17 18
AI and robotic officers will be
deployed alongside human police
to increase the effectiveness of
law enforcement by 2030.13 14
As repetitive tasks are automated and occupations are
redesigned, innovative technologies could generate
new jobs to supplant those they displace.12 Humans
could learn to cooperate with machine intelligence
US$ 150B
through robust education and upskilling programmes.
By applying our human knowledge and insight, we China will lead the world through
might gainfully use AI to its fullest potential. the development of AI. Its domestic
AI industry alone will be worth an
estimated US$150 billion by 2030.15 16
Technological disruptions offer a multitude of benefits
and trade-offs. Will digitisation and AI further exacerbate
the divide between the rich and the poor? How should
inequality be measured in a world where a powerful
few own infinitely expansible technologies? Will
introducing rigorous governance of digitisation and
AI improve humanity’s overall well-being, or become a
trap for anyone without access to it? What will happen
to the workforce of Asia?
Public Well-being

Reinventing Healthcare and

Providing Opportunities
1.4 billion individuals around the
world will be over 60 years of
age by 2030, up from
901 million in 2015.26

for Billions Government sectors may

be rearranged to cater
to ever-complex citizen
priorities in agile teams and
multidisciplinary resources.1

Public well-being is the holistic care for citizens’ quality
of life in the areas of finance, housing, employment,
and mental and physical health. A nation’s productivity,
competitiveness, and prestige are intricately tied to
the quality of its citizens’ welfare.19
Government spending on public well-being varies
drastically across the globe. Low-income countries
spend a meagre US$0.03 for every US$1 spent by
high-income nations. The ratio has remained true
since 1995 and could hold true beyond 2030. As a
result, people in many parts of the world suffer poor
standards of healthcare and are unable to improve
their living conditions. Without a global organisation
mandating cross-border policy interventions, it is
unlikely for low-income nations to improve their
welfare system for the benefit of their own people.20 21
Finishing second on the Global Competitiveness Index
of 140 economies, Singapore’s public welfare is one
of the most efficient systems in the world.22 Unlike
most developed nations, the city-state spends less
than 5% of its GDP on healthcare, yet its citizens are
relatively healthy.23 24 25 Singapore champions self-
reliance through mandatory savings, enabling citizens
and permanent residents to finance future medical
expenses, home ownership, and retirement.23 24
Can Asian countries emulate Singapore’s healthcare
system and realistically adapt it for their own use? Pervasive sensors and Worldwide healthcare
What government interventions, policies, and trackers may become expenditure will rocket to
ubiquitous to daily life. People US$16.04 trillion by 2030, up
processes could best complement a nation’s
may be constantly monitored from US$9.21 trillion in 2014.
healthcare system? in exchange for tailor-made Mounting costs will force
treatment and medicine.27 hundreds of millions into
extreme poverty.24 25
Urbanisation The number of
megacities worldwide
will increase by 12 to a
total of 43 by 2030.35 By 2030, 25% of the world
population will be living in

Mastering
slums as urban areas swell
The United Nations (UN) beyond capacity. Sheer
defined megacities as numbers will cripple basic
metropolitan areas public services meant
that house more than to protect and aid its
10 million inhabitants.34 35 citizens.36

Megacities

For the first time in history, more than half of the world’s
population live in urban areas. By 2030, city dwellers
will make up approximately 5 billion out of 8.1 billion
people—an increase from 3.4 billion in 2013. 28 29
Humans gravitate toward urbanity in the hopes of
greater job prospects and the chance to achieve a
higher quality of life. 30 Unfortunately, many Asian
cities are unprepared for the influx of rural migrants
due to inadequate planning and investment in housing
and welfare. 31 In some nations, the density of cities
are matched by the persistent growth of slums. 30
When it comes to urbanisation, Singapore is a study
of multiple successes. In its first years of newfound
independence, almost three-quarters of its 1.6
million-strong population lived in squatter colonies.
The country’s urban planners investigated past
examples of high-rise, high-density public housing in
the West and designed policies to overcome pitfalls
that plagued those projects.32 A mere generation
later, Singapore went from third-world to first, with
one of the highest population densities in the world
comfortably housed on limited land.
Singapore’s success story is the work of a master
planning committee and interdisciplinary contributions
from experts of every government department. 32
With its continuous efforts to become a smart city,
Singapore is a living laboratory for the creation of
urban technologies that could improve the lives of
millions in Asia. 33
Urban planners and policymakers must take into
account essentials such as the quality of air, water
and transportation when building a city’s overall
infrastructure. With more challenges to come, what
should cities of the future possess to ensure its
residents thrive and enjoy fulfilling lives? What
should the new urban indicators be for successful
city planning?
Challenges of the Future
Governance in an
Age of Disruption
The greatest disruptions of 2030 will occur within
the four areas of focus LKYSPP has identified.
From capitalising on the power shift to the East,
to achieving a gainful relationship with technology,
innovatively revamping global public welfare, and
finding ways to make megacities smart and sustainable,
unprecedented opportunity awaits us in the new
Asian century.
In this time of rapid change, governments have to
monitor the impact of existing policies to understand
issues as they arise.
The age of disruption is here, and it requires a strong,
united response to overcome. Our shared journey to 2030 will
be paved with great challenges that leaders around the globe
must understand, confront, and remake into opportunities.
Leaders must reconsider traditionally hierarchical
policymaking processes and create agile, adaptive
systems to interact with the private and civic sectors.
Even as older strategies become obsolete, they open
opportunities for novel solutions.
It is vital for institutions to understand that as the
people, cities, and countries they govern change,
so too must public policies. LKYSPP envisions a
world transformed through good governance,
leadership excellence and supported by
evidence-based policymaking.
Our Big Science Approach
LKYSPP’s Sputnik
Moment is Here
The Sputnik moment references the point in time
where USSR leapfrogged United States in their space
programme by putting the first functioning satellite
into orbit. Consequently, the Americans redoubled
their scientific efforts in the Space Race and landed
the first human on the moon.
LKYSPP recognises that a great transition is
taking place in the current world order, and with it,
undisputed disruptions to geopolitical, economic,
technological and social sectors. This is Asia’s
Sputnik moment.
Drawing on the common challenges presented
by modern-day governance and Singapore’s
developmental history, LKYSPP intends to utilise
a concerted “Big Science” effort to further good
governance and public policymaking.
Multidisciplinary
Big Science Approach
LKYSPP is situated in the heart of Asia and at the
crossroads between East and West. We are uniquely TO EMPOWER
positioned to shape the region’s research agenda future policymakers by equipping
to meet various challenges and leverage fresh them with real-world experience
opportunities. and practical solutions. Through
our wealth of resources and
On the international stage, we provide an Asian knowledge, we invest in a new
perspective from Singapore’s development story. generation of successful and
informed Asian leaders.
Our Big Science approach will require transnational
cooperation. In building Asia’s research and advocacy
capabilities, LKYSPP will be able to make the
most of our collaborations with
researchers and practitioners
across the world.
TO CREATE
TO ADVANCE unique solutions and
cross-border knowledge collective, timely responses
exchange through research for emerging issues by
collaborations. By augmenting engaging thought leaders
the depth and breadth of our in insightful conversations.
academic reservoir, we advance Lending local and regional
future policymaking in Asia. leaders’ credible knowledge
and opinions, we enable
stronger governance and
better policymaking.
Join Us to Create a Positive Impact for Asia

Now is
The Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (LKYSPP) is
a leading global public policy school in Asia offering
cutting-edge research and education in public policy
and international affairs that are tailored to the needs
of today’s policymakers, civil functionaries, and
The four research centres deliver impactful research
to inform and influence public policymaking in
Singapore and Asia through regular publication in
journals, books, opinion editorials and international
conferences.

the Time
As forward-looking scholars, we strive to understand
the power shifts and disruptions across the world and
explore their geopolitical implications for regional
order in Asia.
As transformational educators, we aim to equip
policymakers with the ability to mediate growth and
nurture future thought leaders for this exciting time
of change.
private and not-for-profit sector professionals.
LKYSPP is committed to equip current and future
The school carries its multidisciplinary focus across generations of policymakers and leaders with
four research centres that study and address a wide innovative state-of-the-art policymaking tools. We
range of public policy challenges in depth. aim to optimise our resources through successful
• Asia Competitiveness Institute (ACI) advancement in our research, teaching innovations,
• Centre on Asia and Globalisation (CAG) and student scholarships.
• Institute of Policy Studies (IPS)
Our goal is to raise funds to multiply the effect of our • Institute of Water Policy (IWP)
research impact on Asia and the rest of the world, by
collaborating with experts through multidisciplinary
thinking, policy engagement and education. Your
support will help us accelerate our efforts to create
greater leadership value, build a stronger base of
research expertise, and guide Asia and the world to
a brighter future through improved governance.

As social science engineers, we endeavour to be a

compelling voice and the source of insight for leaders
around the world.

We invite you to be a part of LKYSPP’s Sputnik moment.

Join us in shaping governance for the future of Asia,
as we approach the greatest disruptive
periods of our lifetime.
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 LKYSPP Advancement & Development Office
469C Bukit Timah Road, Oei Tiong Ham Building, Singapore 259772
Email: emily.ng@nus.edu.sg
DID: +65 6601 5229
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The content of this booklet is accurate at the time of publication.