Hybrid Warfare

Neither Conventional, nor Nuclear: The current/future of warfare is Hybrid

Warfare

5th Generation Warfare: The Changing Aesthetics of War

Outline

1. Introduction
2. The Concept of conventional and nuclear warfare
3. The concept of hybrid warfare
4. Distinctive objectives of hybrid warfare
5. How current warfare is hybrid warfare?
A. Involvement of non-conventional means of warfare
i. Role of non-state actors
ii. Impact of media including social media
iii. Introduction of Information Technology and Cyber
Technology tactics
iv. Entrance of Private Military Contractors (PMC)
B. Contemporary warfare is of “Narratives” – Information warfare
6. Hybrid warfare in Pakistan:
A. Fanning of Baloch insurgency
B. Forming special unit and funds to disrupt national unity and
political sovereignty – Kalabagh Dam
C. Using media as a weapon to invade socio-cultural norms and
blanket on atrocities
D. Maligning state institutions through cyber force
E. Creating ethnic dissonance - PTM
7. How to counter hybrid warfare in Pakistan?
A. First things first – Acceptance of hybrid warfare
B. Vigilant role of media and role of social media activists especially
brigade of youth activism
C. Address the grievances of deprived people – pockets of
destabilization
D. Formation of National Cyber Force on the lines of Indian Cyber
Force agency
E. Bottom-up approach : People – to – people interaction
8. Conclusion

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“War cannot create anything but misery, weapons bring

nothing but death.”

➢ Global and regional dynamics of warfare are rapidly changing and posing a
challenge to traditional state structures and military approaches.

➢ Wars between conventional armies are gradually waning, giving rise to a nonlinear
matrix of actors and techniques. Warfare has evolved far beyond the first
generation and second generation, when it was all about set pieces of lines and
columns of armed forces.

➢ Third generation warfare, which was waged between industrial age armies over
land and resources was replaced by fourth generation warfare, in which asymmetric
warriors, employ terrorism as a tool to achieve political objectives. The strategy of
“Operate from within” – using blend of non-state actors and media - leads to
creation of fifth generation warfare.

➢ The extension of fourth generation warfare with the elements of fifth generation
gives birth to hybrid warfare. It is emerging as the preferred modality in today`s
contests between the great powers as conventional and nuclear warfare is difficult
to wage owing to international norms and complex global structure. It is blurring
the line between war and peace.

➢ Unfortunately, Pakistan is also under the covert and overt sophisticated military –
based operations from its adversaries, which are exercising instruments of hybrid
warfare without exposing themselves to the risks of escalation and severe
retribution. The elements of non- conventional means of warfare includes, inter-
alia, influential role of non-state actors, impact of media including social medial,
introduction of Information technology and cyber technology tactics, and entrance
of private military contractors (PMC) , which encourage political agitators
(demagogue) and war-mongers to achieve political motives by adopting hybrid
warfare as a non-linear conflict. While conventional warfare has become a thing of
past and all-out nuclear conflict – a euphemism for mutually assured destruction –
is highly unlikely, hybrid warfare (5 GW) is increasingly preferred mode of operation
among hostile countries to severely undermine each other.

➢ This essay will highlight the instruments and objectives behind hybrid warfare along
with exploring manifestations of hybrid warfare in Pakistan and suggesting the
recipe of combating this rampant contemporary warfare.

➢ To begin with, Conventional warfare, it is a form of warfare conducted by

using conventional weapons and battlefield tactics between two or more
states in open confrontation. The forces on each side are well-defined, and
fight using weapons that primarily target the opponent's military, whereas

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Nuclear warfare (sometimes atomic warfare or thermonuclear warfare) is

a military conflict or political strategy in which nuclear weaponry is used to
inflict damage on the enemy. Nuclear weapons are weapons of mass
destruction; in contrast to conventional warfare, nuclear warfare can
produce destruction in a much shorter time and can have a long-
lasting radiological warfare result. But both are now losing their importance in
international confrontations owing to the advancement of technology and complex
global norms and patterns. On the other hand, there is no universal definition of
hybrid warfare. West analysts named contemporary warfare as hybrid warfare,
Russain scholars called it “new generation warfare or Fifth generation warfare” and
Chinese think tanks pronounced it “comprehensive military tactical approach.”

➢ The general concept of Hybrid warfare is that it is a military strategy that employs
political warfare and blends conventional warfare, irregular warfare and cyber
warfare with other influencing methods, such as fake news, diplomacy, lawfare and
foreign electoral intervention. It is also called asymmetrical, gray-zone conflict, fifth
generation warfare and “whole of government approach.” NATO Secretary General
Anders Fogh Rasmseen described Russian tactics (encompassing narrative control,
cyber-attacks, use of irregular forces, anonymous militias, clandestine supplies and
diplomatic support) of annexing of Crimea in 2014 as “hybrid warfare”. Mark
Galeotti, Professor of IR in Prague, termed it as “guerrilla geopolitics.”

➢ It is imperative to mention here the distinctive objectives of hybrid warfare. The

main objective may not be to secure an adversary`s immediate defeat, but to
erode its morale; isolate it; soften it up before a conflict; deflect it from putting
unacceptable military or political motives; disrupt its communication networks;
command and control; impose economic pains to secure adherence to political
demands; delegitimize an adversary`s government; compromise its leaders.
Precisely, a combination of military action operations, covert and overt operations
and an aggressive program of disinformation to exploit the deep seated politico-
economic sentiments of a state to inflict wounds within especially targeting
psychology of the citzens, without exposing itself to the risks of intensification and
severe reckoning, is the primary objective of hybrid warfare.

➢ Technology is progressively blurring the distinction between conventional and

hybrid warfare, and increasing the incentives, opportunities and compulsions for the
preemptive or first use of offensive action by adversaries under the scope of hybrid
warfare. Toolbox of non- conventional instruments including non-state actors,
media including social media, information technology and cyber technology, and
birth of Private military contractors that is being used to wage hybrid war, is rapidly
expanding and becoming more sophisticated. The evolving role of non-state actors
is changing the dynamics of warfares. AT the time of annexation of Crimea in 2014,
Russia exploited the opposition parties of eastern Ukarine and encouraged non-
state actors especially local militia to provoke a revolt against government with the
clandestine supplies and diplomatic support. The elite Russian troops portrayed
themselves as local militia during Russia’s occupation and annexation of Crimea in
2014. There have been similar efforts by nations to outsource provocations and

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enforcement of civil unrest in opponent states using non-state actors. What is new
is the sophistication and lethality of non-state actors.

➢ Moreover, the influential role of media including social media cannot be denied in
converting contemporary conflicts into hybrid warfare. Media is being widely used
to shape the public opinion via promoting propaganda. It is interesting to note that
media is declared as instrument to change the psyche of a nation. According to one
research, one`s personality and perception about one`s surroundings is influenced
and shaped by media. Social media is being used to create a blur line between
reality and illusion. Fake news is the emerging infamous outcome of social media,
which creates panic in national as well as international affairs. Last month, fake
news of resigning of Donald Trump, President of America, created chaos in wall
street, famous stock exchange market of America, and international economic
markets and according to the wall street journal, world suffered $ 15 billion in just
one hour. Moreover, according to US Studies of Peace excellence report,
sophisticated social media campaigns of ISIS, infamous terrorist organization, have
glorified their cause, and high – quality propaganda has contributed to group`s
ability to recruit thousands of foreign fighters to its rank. It is also being employed
to malign the adversary`s state institutions especially military institutes to generate
confusion among masses.

➢ The introduction of information technology (IT) and cyber technology tactics is

another instrument of hybrid warfare, which is reshaping mechanics of
contemporary warfare. It is also known as electronic warfare (EW), a tool of hybrid
warfare. Developments in IT have provided terrorist groups with an unprecedented
ability to engage in information warfare and compete effectively with states to
shape public opinion. In case of Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014, NATO
Strategy Communication (STRA – COM) admitted the “cyber information
superiority” over the western cyber technology; loudly saying that reinvention of
reality, with the help of IT and cyber technology, encouraged Russian authorities to
sabotage the ground facts of Crimea situation; resultantly, helped in annexation of
Crimea. Furthermore, owing to complex global structure, it is difficult to gain
political objectives by waging total war. In 2009, Israel attacked Iran`s nuclear
programme via cyber virus attack, named “Stuxnet.” After this, Israel claimed that
Israel has disrupted the Iran`s nuclear dream. Recently, in November 2018, Israel
has again attacked Iran, but this time Israel targeted telecommunication
infrastructure with the cyber virus tactics, named it “Stuxnet II.” Iran, to which,
decried it as an attack on sovereignty. Similarly, Russia is accused of meddled in
the US election 2016 by hacking machines and creating propaganda on the
internet. According to David Karf research paper, 126 hundred million people of
America has encountered viral fake content organically shared by Russain cyber
agents before US elections, which gradually shaped the opinion of US citizens.
Consequently, hybrid warfare is becoming a mean to achieve same old but limited
political objectives with the help of new modes of war.

➢ Besides media and cyber technology, Private Military Contractors (PMC) is another
nefarious tool of hybrid warfare. States use this new instrument to avoid

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repercussion and sanctions from international political institutions. This tool

provides blanket to human rights abuses, which are committed in pursuit of political
objectives, as direct military officials of a belligerent state are not involved in
conflicts and clashes. International Criminal Court of Justice (ICCJ) gave clean chit
to America on human rights violations and war crimes in Iraq owing to non-
evidence and non-involvement of military officials in Iraq war. It is pertinent to
mention here that according to _______, US is going to privatize the Afghan war
via PMC`s as more than 24000 contractors are operating in Afghanistan.

➢ This war essentially involves “narratives.” This warfare, known as information

warfare, all about influence. But this is not information warfare; this is warfare over
the meaning of the information. Information consists of facts—raw data. Narratives
do not tell the facts. Narratives tell the meaning of the facts. This is narrative
warfare, and our adversaries are beating our brawn with their brains. That is why
the Islamic State is able to draw recruits from around the world to travel to conflict
zones to fight, and that is how they can encourage homegrown terrorists to take
lethal action without physical coercion. State actors and non-state actors compete
to extend their influence. Both exploit localized events to fuel civil wars, provoke
desired changes in broader geopolitical environments, leverage pre-existing
hostilities, to manufacture conflict when they can, and foster ideological shifts in
civilian populations. According to Ajit Maan, information is weaponized now and
only those states will sustain in future global conflicts whose information is
weaponized with influential psychological narrative strategy.

➢ A recent Department of Defense risk assessment suggests the hyper connectivity

and weaponization of information are, in part, responsible for the post-primacy
status of liberal democratic systems. The commitment of liberal democratic
societies to free speech and open information exchange has been turned against us
by societies that don’t value or practice the same ideals themselves. Even non-state
actors with economic restraints and poor conventional military capacity have
enacted narratives that in some cases have rendered narrative a weapon in their
arsenal. For example, the conflation between the war on terror and a war on Islam
perpetuated even further by the perception of a ban on Muslim immigrants may
feed the Islamic State narrative that Islam itself is under attack. Weaponized
narrative represents a deep threat to national and international security and
cooperation—a threat that advanced kinetic capacity, and those of partner nations,
cannot address alone. When narratives are weaponized, they can undermine
homeland security by shaking the faith of citizens in democratic institutions and the
rule of law causing civil unrest. Weaponized narratives on social media are the
extremist recruiter’s favorite tool. To stem the rise of extremism, eliminating
extremists themselves is a temporary fix. The comprehensive long-term fix is to
render extremist narratives obsolete. Owing to narrative warfare, the world sees
Kashmir and Palestine freedom struggle as terrorism.

Pakistan, too, is entangled in this quagmire. The perennial state of conflict

between Pakistan and India, with the clandestine supply of diplomatic support from

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international security agencies on ground and on paper, are changing and blurring
the line between the states of war and peace. Wars no longer declared and have
begun, proceed according to an unfamiliar template. Exploitation of deep rooted
ethnic dissonance, defamation of state institutions, Provocation (Aggravation) of
Baloch insurgency, disruption of political unity and sovereignty, and invasion of
weaponized culture are some of the few indicators of hybrid warfare in Pakistan.

“Pakistan is facing enormous challenges both in conventional and non-conventional

domains and our enemies know that they cannot compete and beat us fair and
square, and thus subjected us to cruel, evil and protracted hybrid warfare (5th
GW).”

General Qamar Javed Bajwa

It is no secret that India`s notorious intelligence agency, Research and

Analysis Wing (RAW), has been carrying out overt and covert operations inside
Pakistan through proxies and terrorist networks that fall within aforementioned
parameters for a very long time now. In 2009, then PM Yousaf Raza Gillani handed
over a dossier of RAW`s involvement in terrorist activities to his counterpart, PM
Man Mohan Singh, during their meeting at Sharm el- Sheikh in Egypt. The dossier
highlighted just how India`s security and intelligence agencies had been using
Afghanistan`s soil to train and fund terrorist activities in FATA and other parts of
Pakistan especially in igniting and intensifying the insurgency in Baluchistan. In
2013, then Indian Army Chief admitted that following the 2008 Mumbai attack, the
Indian army raised a Tactical Support Division (TSD), which carried out bomb blasts
in Pakistan, doled out money to the separatist elements in Baluchistan. The
scandalous statement “You may do one Mumbai, you may lose Baluchistan” further
clarifies on-going hybrid warfare in Pakistan under Doval Doctrine –support non-
state actors and separatists to destabilize Pakistan. Similarly, Kulbushan Jadhav, an
Indian Navy Commissioned officer who was captured red handed from Baluchistan
in 2016, confessed nefarious nature of his activites, which included terrorism
among approaches intended to destabilize the country. He also confessed to being
assigned by RAW “to plan and organize espionage and sabotage activities in the
Karachi and Baluchistan including CPEC project.”

It is increasingly clear to the adversaries of Pakistan that it is no longer

possible to overpower this nuclear state through conventional and kinetic means,
the only other option is to engage it with other painful undetected disruption of
political unity and sovereignty on national issues along with resource exhausting
form of hybrid warfare to achieve strategic goals; including, but not limited to,
commotion of CPEC and construction of dams. The former caretaker water
resources minister, Ali Zafar, argued that India was watching Pakistan’s inaction
over the construction of the KBD — as well as other dams — and was violating river

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rights owing to Pakistan`s intra-political disputes. He showed severity of the

situation by explaining that India was arranging anti-KBD conferences abroad which
were better organized and seemed far better funded than the seminars and debates
held in Pakistan. According to resources, India is investing Rs 12 billion annually to
prevent Pakistan from constructing Kalabagh dam. It is unfortunate for Pakistan,
owing to foreign intervention and political differences, that Pakistan has been
unable to construct consensus among provinces on construction of Kalabagh dam
since 1960`s plan under Indus water treaty, and it is increasing over the time.
Moreover, taking advantage of political indifferences, India in building dams on
Pakistan`s water. According to water report shared by former water resource
minister, India is constructing more than 24 dams on Pakistan`s western water,
and interestingly following Indus water treaty, India has built 400 dams while
Pakistan could not make Kalabagh dam. Pakistan has been declared as water
stressed country in 1994 and according to World Bank report, Pakistan will be a
water scarcity country in 2025; consequently, Pakistan should take the issue of
India`s brutal attacks on water shared formula along with representation of political
unity. It is pertinent to mention here that after accusation of alleged involvement of
Pakistan in Uri and Pathankot attacks, Indian PM Modi has given an infamous
statement, “blood and water cannot flow together at the same time.” This reflects
that a multipronged strategy had been put in place to pressurize and confront
Pakistan on multiple fronts.

Besides, India and other international security agencies are waging culture
warfare. As media attacks neutralized the ability of the state authorities to respond,
while broader media techniques clouded the lines between reality and illusion,
creating an alternative reality for those observers who accepted the others media`s
view of events. It is sad to know that Pakistan`s adversaries enjoy considerable
prowess in media projection and narrative construction, including fake news,
subversion and sabotage, and sponsorship of terrorism, including false flag
operation. Failure of propagation of Kalbushan Jadhev saga is the fiasco of Pakistan
narrative and media projection against involvement of India in terrorist activities on
international platform. At one stage, former Indian culture minister openly gave
statement that India has won the cultural war from Pakistan as our content is more
telecast than their local content. “Zee salam” Indian TV channel and two specific
radio stations in Balochi language is serving the purpose. The propagation of self-
proclaimed surgical strikes by India in 2016 through media is one of the
psychological tactics to pollute the young minds and create psychological
superiority along with generating chaos in the society. Succinctly, India is using
media as a weapon to invade socio-cultural norms and blanket on its atrocities.

India is expanding its nefarious designs by creating confusion in nation

through maligning state institutions via cyber force using social media. It is also
known as electronic warfare. India`s strategic information campaigns seek to
exploit existing societal vulnerabilities, weakened government and state
institutions, and undermine the perceived legitimacy of Pakistan state. Like ISIS
influential social media campaigns, India is using information operations to
influence and shape public perception, a recognition that social media campaigns

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has become the strategic center of gravity in contemporary conflicts. For this, India
has exclusively established “India Defense Cyber Agency” which will work in
coordination with National Cyber Security Advisor for cyber warfare, and allocated
Rs. 7 billion for propaganda and maligning Pakistan institutions particularly
targeting military institutions. The main modality of this contemporary indirect war
is cyber technology including social media against Pakistan. An army of Indian trolls
has been recruited to malign Pakistan on the internet. According to Digital platform
report, India has created more than 350000 Bot profiles – fake accounts with fake
names- on social media to share anti – Pakistan content. This shows that indirect
war has been imposed on Pakistan under the guise of freedom of speech and
manipulation of facts via cyber tactics.

The most recent scheme that appears to include the efforts of both
RAW and Afghanistan`s National Directorate of Security (NDS) to
undermine the national integration and encourage ethnic dissonance has
been through the support and funding for the newly teethed “Pashtun
Tahafuz Movement (PTM)”. As a method of hybrid war, social and
cultural identities are pitted against one another. In this context, the
growing Pakhtun Tahaffuz Movement (PTM) is the highest manifestation
of the hybrid war. With regard to the PTM, whose main agenda is
safeguarding the Pakhtun rights and identity, it can be observed that
Pakhtuns of Pakistan have never been much threatened physically,
culturally and socially than during the TTP and affiliated groups
insurgency between 2007 and 2015. Surprisingly, during that period the
PTM did not emerge and its leaders did not realise that the Pakhtuns
need to be protected. Therefore, the rise of the PTM after the return of
relative normalcy to the Pakhtun regions of Pakistan raises many
questions and eyebrows. In contemporary Pakistan, Pakhtun ethnic
group is well integrated into the state’s institutional policy and social
structure and there is no question about any discrimination against it.
Pakhtun is the second largest ethnic group in Pakistan and the enemies
of Pakistan know that if the country has to be destabilized then the
Pakhtuns have to be pitted against the state. The slogan of PTM is
scandalously against the state. While demands of PTM are being addressed
by state institutions, PTM is incessantly perusing anti-state rehotric and
damaging image of state on international forums. However, in the given
situation when the country is led by an ethnic Pakhtun, Prime Minister
Imran Khan Niazi, and the members of the group are heavily present in
every state institution, it is well-nigh impossible to pit the Pakhtuns
against the state. It is also clear that Pakistan has been subjected to this
phenomenon for a very long time – with strategies moving from more
kinetic approaches through proxies like the Tehreek Taliban Pakisan (TTP),
to the broader spectrum approach Pakistan see today that is challenging
on multiple fronts including ethnic dissonance. Pakistan has developed
credible capabilities to deter conventional and nuclear aggression;
however, it remains vulnerable to hybrid warfare.

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When the nature of game changes, it is of utmost importance to adapt to the

new rules of game to avoid isolation, demoralization and eventual loss.
Extraordinary circumstances require extraordinary measures. Above and beyond,
hybrid warfare can be tackled and countered, if not eliminated, by adopting the
following suggestions: Acceptance of hybrid war, vigilant role of media including
participation of social media, formation of exclusive National Cyber force on the
lines of Indian Cyber Force Agency and last but not the least, addressing the
grievances of deprived people – pockets of destabilizing agents- and exercising
bottom – up approach. First things first are acceptance of hybrid warfare. Just as
military leadership has acknowledged the presence and impact of hybrid warfare on
the country; it is important for the political and military leadership to setup up to
the challenge collectively and strategizes accordingly, in advance and in proportion
to the gravity of the multi-faceted threats Pakistan face.

Secondly, media including social media should also play its vigilant role in
combating narratives against the state. DG ISPR has given a statement in this
regard/to that effect,

“We must prepare ourselves for the hybrid warfare (5th GW) being imposed on us
by enemy. Every citizen especially social media activists is the soldier in this
conflict. All Pakistan media outlets including social media need to be aware of this
war and act accordingly.”

The need of the hour is to avoid generic use of social media including trolling
and abusing political rivals on social network sites and utilize it for bigger purposes
to respond to India and enemies of Pakistan in much the same manner as our
ancestors did through mobile radio stations.

Thirdly, Pakistan should establish its exclusive National Cyber Force agency
to monitor hostile activities on social media by adopting offensive-defensive
strategy on the lines of Indian Cyber Force Agency. Although Pakistan`s has
security institutions including FIA which are observing social media activities, a
dedicated agency is required to not only defend but also give vigilantly and
efficiently response to the enemy .

Last but not the least, addressing the grievances of deprived people is the
key to combat hybrid warfare, which is inflicted upon Pakistan within. US Army
Major Shannon Beebe writes in Marine Corps Gazette,

“Hybrid warfare (5th GW) is more likely to be prosecuted in “Enclaves of Deprivation

(E0D)” where the vortex of violence threatens the peace and order.”

The rise of the local claimants to spiritual and temporal power challenging
state writ through repudiation of the states` political order like Mullah Faz-Lu-llah,
Commander of TTP, in the past is an example of unaddressed grievances and
enclaves of deprivation. When a state fails to establish order through effective
governance and also fails to provide political and economic justice, hybrid warfare is
foisted upon it by the deprived class. Consequently, a holistic approach should be

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formulated to address the grievances firmly rather than pruning the leaves and
leaving roots untouched.

Lastly, bottom- up approach should also be used to minimize the propaganda

and psychological adverse perception of enemy state. People- to – people
interaction would be one of the bottom – up approaches along with negating
interference of one`s state on International forums. It can be enhanced by
increasing work opportunity across the borders, promoting tourism, allowing trade
across the borders, promoting student exchange programs and working together on
scientific research and technological advancement. In this global village where
online interaction among citizens of states is already quite easy, face- to- face
interaction would abolish the propaganda and misconceptions that would eventually
help in countering hybrid warfare.

To encapsulate, what is new to this contemporary warfare is sophistication,

and an emergence of lethal of new instruments of war that includes evolving role of
non-state actors, information warfare, electronic warfare and cyber technological
tactics to gain political motives. Power will rest with the people who control these
instruments. As conventional war is impossible to wage owing to complex global
structure and limited resources, developments in technology have altogether
changed the mode of war. Reliance on kinetic measures to intercept non-linear
threats is no longer an option, and modern statecraft in the country must
absolutely familiarize itself- and quickly- with alternate tools to tackle the emerging
complex and unpredictable internal and external security landscape. This also
includes tackling internal pressure points particularly ethnic sensitiveness and civil
rights issues to prevent its misappropriation by external elements. The complexity
and scale of hybrid warfare makes it well-nigh impossible to be handled by a single
state institute. The individualistic approach and isolated efforts will prove to be
futile in this regard. For this, a coordinated effort is required among state
institutions. Strong leadership and institutional harmony are needed today more
than ever before (more than at any time in the past) to combat menace of hybrid
warfare. Otherwise, unchecked hybrid warfare may lead to systematic and global
disruption, destabilization and military escalation even to nuclear level.

Hybrid warfare is a military strategy that employs political warfare and

blends conventional warfare, irregular warfare and cyber warfare with
other influencing methods, such as fake news, diplomacy, law
fare and foreign electoral intervention. By combining kinetic operations
with subversive efforts, the aggressor intends to avoid attribution or
retribution. Hybrid warfare can be used to describe the flexible and

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complex dynamics of the battle space requiring a highly adaptable and

resilient response.

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