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Those familiar with the concept of Proxy Warfare, will recall how the
use of sophisticated remote weaponry such as drone technology,
the deployment of small scale special forces units, the use of Private
Security Military Contractors, augmented with the training and arming
of local militias specialising in guerrilla tactics
against targeted governments, has been a staple of covert warfare
for protecting U.S. regional interests for a number of years. This form
of Indirect Warfare has been proven to be largely effective in
advancing Atlanticist hegemony through the doctrine of 'Organised
Chaos', by applying Unconventional Warfare to devastating effect.
"Unconventional warfare groups can also cull their members from the
networks that have already been established by the Colour
Revolution movement. Those distraught with the progress of the
Colour Revolution may be tempted or convinced to join the militants
bearing arms against the government, which illustrates how a direct
continuum may emerge between the individuals active in the Colour
Revolution and those fighting in the Unconventional War. Such a
transition between Colour Revolutions and Unconventional Warfare
is one of the main themes of Hybrid War."
... The goal is to create a hive mind of countless individuals who are
dedicated to the anti-government crusade and become 'all of one
mind'. The hive can then be manipulated into tactical swarming
attacks that are the manifestation of weaponized Chaos Theory and
are extremely difficult for the authorities to prepare for and repel. ...
The global application of this strategy within the last decade, seems
to focus on the weakening and isolation of the Eurasian Heartland of
the 'World Island', as referred to in the geopolitical theory of Halford
Mackinder, laid out in his essay "The Geographical Pivot Of
History" of 1904. Nicholas Spykman, offered an addendum to
Macinkder's theory by renaming in 1944 Mackinder's observations
about the 'Inner Crescent' surrounding the Heartland, by renaming it
the 'Rimland'. Spykman saw this region as being of greater
geostrategic importance, due to its industrial and manpower
potential, with the bold proclamation "Who controls the Rimland rules
Eurasia; who rules Eurasia controls the destinies of the world."
America's challenge today lies in the fact that as the world grows
more multipolar and Russia restores its ability to reassert its
neighbourly interests (and China and Iran acquire theirs), the US
must now tread indirectly with its destabilising methods. The 'Shock
and Awe’ campaign of 2003 or the 2011 NATO war in Libya are
nearly impossible to repeat in Kazakhstan and Ukraine, for example,
owing to the changed international circumstances and enormous
collateral (physical, financial, political) costs that they would
entail. What can happen, however, are campaigns of indirect
geopolitical sabotage under the guise of 'pro-democracy' movements
or externally supported civil conflicts. In fact, combining both of them
into a 'one-two punch' is the perfect 'knockout' attack for dealing with
Eurasian heavyweights, in this case, Russia.
The novelty of this approach lies in the fact that it succeeds simply by
reaping chaos and creating centripetal forces that threaten to tear a
targeted society apart."
The overall strategy is not one of all out victory over the target state,
instead the application of Colour Revolutions and Unconventional
warfare is to weaken the state infrastructure continually and maintain
a socially divisive situation of chaos, until an opportunity for a more
direct intervention emerges.
"The Unconventional War does not succeed in the traditional military
way (i.e. the destruction of the enemy's units); it succeeds by
disrupting the enemy and keeping them continually off balance until
the prime opportunity for a decisive strike presents itself."
The author asserts that currently the United States is the only nation
employing the Hybrid War technique geopolitically, as similar
attempts by Russia, China and Iran could not work as effectively on
the North American continent. This is mostly due to its geographical
isolationism, and a higher level of 'development' status in comparison
to the Eurasian landmass, and its multitude of emerging economies
and 'developing nations'.
The 'Arab Spring', which swept over the Middle East in 2011, had to
maintain its evolution as a 'grassroots' movement to preserve a
degree of legitimacy. However, it has become readily apparent that
this social media led 'uprising' was a largely engineered operation,
designed to weaken the Middle East and allow it to be balkanised
and descend into further chaos. A point of interest is that violent
crackdowns on protestors in US allied states such as Bahrain did not
descend into indirect warfare, as did the unfortunate and ongoing
conflict in Syria. In fact the pro-US regime in Bahrain seems as
strong as ever, this example alone should give an indication as to
the 'hidden hand' guiding the regional regime change agenda.
The idea is to disrupt the core ring of leadership, this will affect the
interconnected outer parts of the system. So the objective in a
Colour Revolution, is direct penetration of the core of this five ring
system, as attacks on the outer ring of 'fielded military' in a
conventional manner, say with large scale troop deployment, will only
affect that outer circle. The aim at this initial stage is one of
infiltration, as opposed to Unconventional War, where the fighting
units seek to attack the middle three rings of these systems for
maximum disruption, effectiveness and convenience. Armed militias,
do of course, attack the outer ring of fielded military, but these are
more scattershot engagements, as direct engagement with the
military can be risky for a guerrilla force, cutting the military's access
to infrastructure, system essentials and its leadership can be a much
more effective way of neutralising and demoralising the troops.
"The second target of the Colour Revolution is the individual, and 'the
movement' attempts to poach as many of them as possible prior to
the onset of the destabilisation. ...
... The ideology of the individual over the collective (the social aspect
of Liberal-Democracy) empowers each and every protestor to feel
that they are making a unique and significant impact in bringing
about this change."
If the outer core of military or police come to the aid of the inner
leadership core, and succeed in shutting down the Colour
Revolution, the stage is quickly set for Unconventional War. But let
us return to the Colour Revolution, in particular its leadership
structure, which works a similar principle to the ring structure it seeks
to penetrate and disrupt. As described previously, the movement
has a 'core' of witting participants, usually trained in activist and
subversion techniques, a ring of unwitting 'converts' to the cause,
who actively recruit from the population to gain the numbers needed
to mobilise the Colour Revolution. The public are ideologically
converted through the penetration of their own individual, ideological
'Five Rings', usually with family at the core, work forming the next,
neighbourhood third, religion, then lastly, country. If this system and
its vulnerabilities can be exploited by the movement, then an
individual is usually swayed to join the cause, and the ensuing Colour
Revolution.
The author also outlines that Hybrid War works through the
application of Chaos Theory, particularly in terms of its nonlinear
dynamics, and its decentralisation, which both serve to give the
impression of disorder, and as a result make the Hybrid Warfare
technique difficult for the target state to manage
coherently. Highlighting the work of military strategist Steven Mann,
who in 1992 wrote "Chaos Theory and Strategic Thought", the author
includes the following, to explain the weaponised application of
Chaos Theory, to effect maximum disruption in the two central pillars
of Hybrid Warfare.
... the initial shape of the social situation in the targeted country is just
as important for the Colour Revolution as the initial shape of the
physical, military, and infrastructure situation is for Unconventional
Warfare. The same goes for the other two variables.
Where things get extra interesting is when it comes to the last one,
the conflict energy of the individual actors. Mann writes that 'to
change the conflict energy of peoples - to lessen it or direct it in ways
favourable to our national security goals - we need to change the
software. As hackers have shown, the most aggressive way to alter
software is with a 'virus', and what is ideology but another name for a
human software virus? ...
The idea is that the chaos begun by the Colour Revolution, although
initiated by a foreign actor, spreads organically, and potentially
morphs into Unconventional War. As the process appears to fluidly
develop on its own, the organisational aspect behind the chaos is
difficult to unmask, and therefore the entire campaign appears to
have gained inception independently as the 'will of the people'. The
Colour Revolution's spread via social media, also works on this viral
principle, and spreads in a 'swarm' both in the virtual and real
landscapes.
"the Core and Cohorts safely hide behind the Civilian sympathisers
and use them as unwitting human shields, placing the government in
a precarious position of whether or not to act against the organisers."
... This is the very basis of Colour Revolutions. General and specific
(in the context of the targeted civilisation/culture) group psychology is
studied in order to best exploit the methods for spreading anti-
government messages. ...
... Importantly, the younger generation does not even have to be from
the capital or the targeted region of the occupation and mass
protests events. Instead, they can (and commonly are) bused in
from all across the country to attend the protests."