Weekly Groundnut

Monitor
29thMar’2022
 Commodity – Groundnut
Fundamental Summary
Factor Impact

Market driving factors

Price Recap

Groundnut, Saurashtra Last Closing Week Ago Month Ago Year Ago

(INR/Tonne) 67,000 65,000 64,000 62,000

Price Outlook (2-4 weeks)

Time frame 2-3 weeks 2 – 4 months

Price Direction Sideways Bearish

Price Range (INR/Qtl) 57,000 – 68,000 52,000 – 70,000

Fundamental Analysis and Insights

Technical Analysis

 Prices settled on positive note at 67,000/ton higher by INR 2000 from previous week.
 Prices seen to whipsaw around INR 65,000-68,000 levels during previous weeks while
the broader range INR 56,000-70,000 still remains intact; a slowdown in bullish
momentum being evident during previous weeks from lower bounds of said range
suggests early signs of breakdown portraying negative bias.
 On the weekly chart momentum front, Stochastic (9,3,3) is flattening in
overstretched region suggesting limited upside potential on immediate front while
prices are sustaining the penetration above Bollinger bands still staying flat.
 ADX(14) indicator is staying below 20 readings portray non trending (range bound)
directional bias and short lived price swings.
 Hence, imminent weakness eyeing INR 60,000 and lower likely to emerge as prices
have drifted higher towards the upper bounds of broader sideways range. Ongoing
corrective streak likely to subsequently drift lower eyeing a breakdown of said range
towards INR 54,000-52,000 levels in medium term.
 Volatility likely to expand gradually as indicated by the Bollinger bands and weekly
price ranges.

Concisely, prices are likely to remain capped around INR 68,000-70,000 levels and
extend broader corrective tone towards INR 55,000-52,000 levels amid gradual increase
of volatility in forthcoming weeks.