SCENARIO:

Nestle Philippines over the years had developed different products that are in need by
the market. They were able to sustain its relevance to the industry as to its target market. Over
the years thew company was able to develop product and was able to maintain its availability.
With this, your manager wants you to develop a forecasting analysis and want to see 3 different
options that is relevant and helpful to the company to have a much reliable forecast.

Your boss now wants you to develop a different possible technique that best suited for
your company. Develop a Naïve, Moving averages of 5 and a weighted average of 5 as well
(20%, 15%, 10%, 30%, 25%). The actual demand for last year company performance was
45,000 actual demands for January, 55,000 for February, 67,000 for March, 60,000 for April,
55,000 for May and 50,000 for June.

1. As the head for Marketing what will be your sales forecast for the month of July using.
a. Naive
DATE ACTUAL DEMAND FORECAST
JANUARY 45, 000
FEBRUARY 55,000 45, 000
MARCH 67,000 55,000
APRIL 60,000 67,000
MAY 55,000 60,000
JUNE 50,000 55,000
JULY 50,000
b. Moving Averages

(50,000+55,000+ 60,000+67,000+55,000)
July =
5
287,000
July =
5
July = 57,400

c. Weighted Averages

July = ( 55,000∗20 % )+ ( 67,000∗15 % ) + ( 60,000∗10 % ) + ( 55,000∗30 % ) +(50,000∗25 %)

July = 11,000 + 10,050 + 6,000 + 16,500 + 12,500
July = 56,050
 2. If the actual demand for July shows 78,000 thousand what will be the forecast for August
using:
a) Naive
DATE ACTUAL DEMAND FORECAST
JANUARY 45, 000
FEBRUARY 55,000 45, 000
MARCH 67,000 55,000
APRIL 60,000 67,000
MAY 55,000 60,000
JUNE 50,000 55,000
JULY 78,000 50,000
AUGUST 78,000

b) Moving Averages

(78,000+50,000+ 55,000+60,000+67,000)
August =
5
310,000
August=
5
August= 62,000

c) Weighted Averages

August = (67,000∗20 %)+(60,000∗15 %)+(55,000∗10 %)+(50,000∗30 % )+(78,000∗25 %)

August = 13,400 + 9,000 + 5,500 + 15,000 + 19,500
August= 62,400

3. Looking at the data from January to June what will you consider as an outlier? Why? Is it
vital on the performance of the company?

The month of March stands out as the outlier because, based on my

observations, it increased and I found it odd. Understanding is essential for the business
because it will soon have an impact on performance of the company.