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CHAPTER 3: PROBABILITY AND COUNTING RULES

2 Introduction to Probability

2.1 Sample Spaces and Probability

Concept of experiment, sample space and event

Experiment:
Any process which outcomes is not known in advance in certainty but all the
possible outcomes can be specified

Sample Space:
A set/collection of all outcomes of an experiment and each outcome is an element
of the sample space

Event:
A set/collection of specific outcomes of an experiment.

Example:
Experiment – Rolling a balanced dice (the outcomes are not known in advance)
Sample Space, S – The possible outcomes of rolling a dice are the numbers 1, 2,
3, 4, 5, 6.
Therefore, S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Event – i) Let A is an event that even number is obtained, therefore:

A = {2, 4, 6}
ii) Let B is an event that a number greater than 2 is obtained, therefore:
B = {3, 4, 5, 6}

Operation of Set Theory

Suppose A and B any two events of an experiment with a sample space, S.

a) Union, 
All outcomes that belong to A alone, B alone or both A and B.
▪ AB=BA
▪ A=A
▪ A  B = B ; if A  B

b) Intersection, 
All outcomes that belong to both A and B
▪ AB=BA
▪ A=
▪ A  B = A ; if A  B

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c) Complement, 
All outcomes in the sample space, S, which do not belong to A
▪ (A)  = A
▪ A  A = S
▪ A  A = 
▪ A  B = (A  B) 
▪ A  B = (A  B) 

d) Disjoint/Mutually exclusive events

A and B are disjoint or mutually exclusive if A and B have no outcomes in
common.
▪ AB=

* Universal set – a set that contains all the elements in sample space
* Empty set – a set without any elements

Probability of an Event

The probability of event A is given by;

n( A)
P ( A) = : where,
n( S )

n(A) is the number of element in set/event A

n(S) is the number of element in sample space, S

The probability of both event A and B occur is given by;

n( A  B )
P( A  B) =
n( S )

where n(AB) is the number of element in set/event (A  B)

2.2 Counting Rules

Multiplication Rule
This rule is used to find the number of possible outcomes for an experiment that
consist of at least two stages.

Theorem 2.1
If an operation can be performed in n 1 ways, and if for each of these, there is
second operation can be performed in n 2 ways, then the 2 operations can be
performed together in n 1 n 2 ways.

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Example 1:
Ali wants to go to town C from town A passing through town B. Suppose there
are 3 different routes from town A to town B and 2 different routes from town B
to town C. How many different routes can Ali take?

Theorem 2.2
If an operation can be performed in n 1 ways and if for each of these, a second
operation can be performed in n 2 ways, and for each of the first two, a third
operation can be performed in n 3 ways, and so forth, the sequence of k operations
can be performed in n 1 . n 2 . n 3 …..n k ways.

Example 2:
John is going to assemble his computer by himself. He has the choice of ordering
chips from two brands, a hard drive from four, memory card from three and
accessory bundle from five local stores. In how many different ways he can order
the part?

Permutation
This method is used to find the number of different ways arranging/ordering a
number of objects.

Theorem 2.3
The number of permutation of n distinct objects is n!

Example 3:
Suppose an original set A is given as A = {2, 4, 5}. How many 3-digit numbers
can possibly be formed from set A if:
i. each digit can be used more than once
ii. each digit can be used only once.

Theorem 2.4
The number of Permutation of n distinct objects taken r at a time is ( r  n )
n n!
Pr=
(n − r )!

Example 4:
How many permutations of 3 different digits are there, chosen from the ten digits
0 to 9 inclusive?

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(Such as drawing ten numbered marbles from a bag, without replacement)

Example 5:
A special type of password consists of four different letters of the alphabet,
where each letter is used only once. How many different possible passwords are
there?

Circular Permutation is permutation that occurs by arranging objects in a circle.

Theorem 2.5
The no. of permutation of n distinct objects arranged in a circle is (n-1)!

Example 6:
In how many ways can 7 people be arranged in a circular table?

Theorem 2.6
The no. of distinct permutations of n things of which n 1 are of one kind (alike),
n!
n 2 of a second kind,………….,n k of a k th kind is .
n1!n2!..........nk !

Example 7:
How many ways can be alphabets in the “STATISTICS” be arranged?

Combination
This method is used to find the number of ways of selecting r objects from n
objects without regard to orders.

The arrangement of the elements in each subset is irrelevant. Therefore there is no

two combination will consist of exactly the same element. For example:
2 sets – A = {a, b} and B = {b, a}

In combination, both set are considered identical and treated as ONE

combination. However in Permutation, both set are considered as TWO
permutation because {a, b} and {b, a} are two different arrangements.

Theorem 2.7

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The number of combination for n distinct objects taken r at the time is   or

n
r
n!
n
Cr= for r = 0, 1, 2, …, n.
(n − r )!r!

Example 8:
6 people are to be chosen for a new committee from 8 males and 8 females. How
many different ways can the committee be chosen if,
a) there are no restrictions on who is chosen,
b) there must be equal males and females on the committee
c) the current chairperson must be re-elected to the committee?
d) there must be at least 4 females on the committee

2.3 The Additional Rules of Probability

General Rules of Probability

• If A and A’ are complementary events in sample space S, then P(A) = 1 – P(A)
• P(S) = 1 , P() = 0 for any sample space S.
• If A and B are events in a sample space S and A  B, then P(A)≤P(B).
• 0  P(A)  1 ; for any event A

Theorem 2.8 Special Addition Rule

If A and B are any two events of an experiment, then;
P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B)

Additive Rule
Mutually Exclusive, P(A  B)=0 Non Mutually Exclusive, P(A  B)≠0
P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B)

Example 9:
Roll a balanced dice!
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Let A – an event that number 5 is observed;  A = {5}

B – an event that odd number is observed;  B = {1, 3, 5}

i. P(A) iv. P(B)

ii. P(B) v. P(A  B)
iii. P(A) vi. P(A  B)

SOLUTION EXAMPLE 9

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2.4 The Multiplicative Rules and Conditional Probability

Conditional probability is the probability of an event occurring given that another

event has occurred

If A and B are any two events of in a sample space S and P(A)≠0, the conditional
probability of B given A is
P( A  B)
P ( B / A) =
P ( A)

Theorem 2.9 Multiplication Rule

If A and B are any two events in a sample space S and P(A)≠0, then
P(A  B) = P(A)·P(B/A)

Independent Events
Suppose A and B are any 2 events of an experiment, A and B are independent if
the occurrence or nonoccurrence of either one does not affect the probability of
occurrence of the other.

Two events A and B are independent if and only if

P(A  B) = P(A).P(B)

Theorem 2.10
If A and B are independent, then A and B’ are also independent.

Multiplicative Rule
Dependent Independent
P(A  B)= P(A)·P(B/A) = P(B)·P(A/B) P(A  B) = P(A).P(B)

Example 10:
The table below shows the distribution of 100 students in a college.

First Year,G After First Year,G’ Total

Male,H’ 35 25 60
Female,H 18 22 40
Total 53 47 100

Let G be the event that the student is a first year student and H be the event that
the student is female. If the student is chosen at random, find:
i) P(G)
ii) P(H  G)
iii) P(H / G’)

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iv) P(H’  G)

Example 11:
Two events R and T are defined in a sample space S. It was given that P(R)= 0.35,
P(T) = 0.28 and P(R T) = 0.06. Find:
i. P(R  T)
ii. P(R  T’)
iii. P(R’  T’)
iv. Are R’ and T’ independent events? Why?

2.5 Bayes’ Theorem

Suppose A1, A2 and A3 are three mutually exclusive and exhaustive events that
partitions of a sample space, S

A1
A1 B
A2  B
A2
B

A3  B

A3

Let B any other event in S;

B = (A1 B)  (A2  B)  (A3  B)

Therefore,
P(B) = P[ (A1 B)  (A2  B)  (A3  B) ]
Since (A1 B), (A2  B) and (A3  B) are disjoint events,

P(B) = P(A1 B) + P(A2  B) + P(A3  B)

Applying the Law of Multiplication;

P(B) = P(A1)P(B/A1) + P(A2)P(B/A2) + P(A3)P(B/A3)

In general, if k events A1, A2, A3, ….., Ak form partitions of S, then for any event
B in S,

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P(B) = P(A1)P(B/A1) + P(A2)P(B/A2) + P(A3)P(B/A3) + ……. + P(Ak)P(B/Ak)

=  P(Ai)P(B/Ai) ; for i = 1, 2, 3, ….., k

Suppose we want to find P(A1/B);

By definition of Conditional Probability,

P(A1/B) = P(A1 B)
P(B)
= P(A1 B)
 P(Ai)P(B/Ai)

In general, if k events, if k events A1, A2, A3, ….., Ak form partitions of S, then
for any event B in S,
P(Ai/B) = P(Ai  B) . ; for i = 1, 2, 3, ……., k
 P(Ai)P(B/Ai)
or
P(Ai/B) = P(Ai  B). ; for i = 1, 2, 3, ……., k
P(B)

This definition/formula is called Bayes’ Theorem.

Illustration by Tree Diagram/Probability

Properties:
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3
P(A1) + P(A2) P(B/A1) + P(B’/A1) = 1 P(A1B) + P(A2B) + P(A3B) = P(B)
+ P(A3) = 1 P(B/A2) + P(B’/A2) = 1

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P(B/A3) + P(B’/A3) = 1 P(A1B’) + P(A2B’) + P(A3B’) = P(B’)

 P(B) + P(B’) = 1

Example 12:
Company A produces bulbs. The bulbs are manufactured at 3 different factories,
F1, F2 and F3 with respective proportions of 50%, 30% and 20%. Records show
that the proportions of defective bulbs produced at F1, F2 and F3 are 3%, 2% and
1% respectively. Suppose one bulb is selected at random and it found to be
defective, what is the probability that it is produced by F2?