Departemen Teknik Industri

Modeling and Analysis

Departemen Teknik Industri
Introduction
• Major component of DSS:
– Data Base
– Model Base and Its Management

• Some successful models and methodologies:

– Decision analyisis
– Decision tree
– Optimization
– Heuristics
– Simulation

TI5142 - Sistem Pendukung Keputusan - Analisis dan 2

Pemodelan
Departemen Teknik Industri
Examples of Application Models

• DuPont rail system simulation model

• Procter & Gamble optimization supply chain
restructuring models (case application 5.1)
• Scott Homes AHP select a supplier model (case
application 5.2)
• IMERYS optimization clay production model (case
application 5.3)

TI5142 - Sistem Pendukung Keputusan - Analisis dan 3

Pemodelan
Departemen Teknik Industri
Seven Categories of Models

TI5142 - Sistem Pendukung Keputusan - Analisis dan 4

Pemodelan
Departemen Teknik Industri

• Each Technique can be applied to either a static or

diynamic model, which can be constructed under
assumed environments of certainty, unertainty, or risk
• To maintain their integrity and thus their applicability,
models, like data, must be managed with the aid of
Model base management systems
• DSS uses mostly quantitative models, whereas expert
systems use qualitative, knowledge-based models in
their application. → Knowledge-based Model
TI5142 - Sistem Pendukung Keputusan - Analisis dan 5
Pemodelan
Departemen Teknik Industri
Static vs Dynamic Models

• Static Analysis
– Single snapshot
• Dynamic Analysis
– Dynamic models
– Evaluate scenarios that change over time
– Time dependent
– Trends and patterns over time
– Extend static models

TI5142 - Sistem Pendukung Keputusan - Analisis dan 6

Pemodelan
 Treating Certainty, Uncertainty,
Departemen Teknik Industri
and Risk

• Certainty Models

• Uncertainty

• Risk

TI5142 - Sistem Pendukung Keputusan - Analisis dan 7

Pemodelan
Departemen Teknik Industri
Proses Pemodelan
Formulasi
Identifikasi Tujuan Masalah

Pendefinisian Pendekatan
sistem Sistem

Analisis

Formulasi Model Pengembangan

Model

Solusi Model

perlu
Lakukan Verifikasi Model
Yes penyesuaian
Penyesuaian
?
No

Aplikasi Model
dengan Data Nyata

perlu
penyesuaian Validasi Model
?

No

Implementasi Implementasi
Model

TI5142 - Sistem Pendukung Keputusan - Analisis dan 8

Pemodelan
Departemen Teknik Industri
Influence Diagram
• Digunakan untuk mengembangkan model
• Graphical representations of a model
• Model of a model
• Visual communication
• Some packages create and solve the mathematical model
• Framework for expressing MSS model relationships
Rectangle = a decision variable
Circle = uncontrollable or intermediate variable
Oval = result (outcome) variable: intermediate or final
Variables connected with arrows

TI5142 - Sistem Pendukung Keputusan - Analisis dan 9

Pemodelan
Departemen Teknik Industri
Contoh:

Unit Price Income

~
Amount used in advertisement Units Sold Profit

Expense
Unit Cost

Fixed Cost

FIGURE 5.1 An Influence Diagram for the Profit Model.

TI5142 - Sistem Pendukung Keputusan - Analisis dan 10

Pemodelan
 Contoh:
Analytica Influence Diagram of a Marketing
Departemen Teknik Industri Problem: The Marketing Model (Figure 5.2a)

TI5142 - Sistem Pendukung Keputusan - Analisis dan 11

Pemodelan
Departemen Teknik Industri
Model using spreadsheet
• Spreadsheet: most popular end-user modeling tool
• Powerful functions
• Add-in functions and solvers
• Important for analysis, planning, modeling
• Programmability (macros)
• What-if analysis
• Goal seeking
• Simple database management
• Seamless integration
• Microsoft Excel
• Lotus 1-2-3
TI5142 - Sistem Pendukung Keputusan - Analisis dan 12
Pemodelan
Departemen Teknik Industri
Seven Categories of Models

TI5142 - Sistem Pendukung Keputusan - Analisis dan 13

Pemodelan
 Category-1 Decision Analysis of a Few
Alternatives (Decision tables and Decision
Departemen Teknik Industri

Trees)
• Single goal and multiple goals (criteria)
• Decision Tables
• Treating uncertainty
• Treating Risk (Risk Analysis). Expected Value
• Decision Trees (shows relationships of the problem
graphically; handle complex situations in a compact
form). Systems: DATA, Precision Tree
• Multiple Goals (criteria). Analytic Hierarchy Process
(software: Expert Choice)
TI5142 - Sistem Pendukung Keputusan - Analisis dan 14
Pemodelan
 Category 2: Optimization via
Departemen Teknik Industri
Mathematical Programming
• Linier Programming is the best known in a family of
optimization tools using mathematical programming:
– Family of tools to solve managerial problems in allocating scarce
resources among various activities to optimize a measurable goal
Optimal solution
Commercial software: LINDO, LINGO, etc.

TI5142 - Sistem Pendukung Keputusan - Analisis dan 15

Pemodelan
 Category 2: Optimization via
Departemen Teknik Industri
Mathematical Programming
LP Characteristics:
▪ A limitied quantity of economic resources is available for
allocation
▪ The resources are used in the production of products or services
▪ There are two or more ways in which the resources can be used.
Each is called a solution or a program
▪ Each activity (product or service) in which the resources are
used yields a return in terms of stated goal
▪ The allocation is usually restricted by several limitations and
requirements called constraints

TI5142 - Sistem Pendukung Keputusan - Analisis dan 16

Pemodelan
 Category 2: Optimization via
Departemen Teknik Industri
Mathematical Programming
LP Assumptions:
▪ Returns from different allocations can be compared; that is, they
can be measured by a common unit (such as dollars or utility)
▪ The return from any allocation is independent of other
allocations
▪ The total return is the sum of the returns yielded by different
activities
▪ All data are known with certainty
▪ The resources are to be used in the most economical manner

TI5142 - Sistem Pendukung Keputusan - Analisis dan 17

Pemodelan
 Category-3: Heuristic Programming (1),
to arrive at feasible and good enough solutions to some
Departemen Teknik Industri
complex problems

• Cuts the search

• Gets satisfactory solutions more quickly and less
expensively
• Finds rules to solve complex problems
• Finds good enough feasible solutions to complex
problems
• Heuristics can be
– Quantitative
– Qualitative (in ES)

TI5142 - Sistem Pendukung Keputusan - Analisis dan 18

Pemodelan
Departemen Teknik Industri
Heuristic Programming(2)

• When to use Heuristics

1. Inexact or limited input data
2. Complex reality
3. Reliable, exact algorithm not available
4. Computation time excessive
5. To improve the efficiency of optimization
6. To solve complex problems
7. For symbolic processing
8. For making quick decisions

TI5142 - Sistem Pendukung Keputusan - Analisis dan 19

Pemodelan
Departemen Teknik Industri
Heuristic Programming (3)
• Advantages:
1. Simple to understand: easier to implement and explain
2. Help train people to be creative
3. Save formulation time
4. Save programming and storage on computers
5. Save computational time
6. Frequently produce multiple acceptable solutions
7. Possible to develop a solution quality measure
8. Can incorporate intelligent search
9. Can solve very complex models
TI5142 - Sistem Pendukung Keputusan - Analisis dan 20
Pemodelan
Departemen Teknik Industri
Heuristic Programming (4)

• Limitations:
1. Cannot guarantee an optimal solution
2. There may be too many exceptions
3. Sequential decisions might not anticipate future consequences
4. Interdependencies of subsystems can influence the whole
system

TI5142 - Sistem Pendukung Keputusan - Analisis dan 21

Pemodelan
Departemen Teknik Industri
Category-4 Simulation (1)

• Definition:
– Technique for conducting experiments (such as what-if analysis) with a
computer on a model of a management system
• Often used as model base
• General Charateristics:
– Imitates reality and capture its richness
– Technique for conducting experiments
– Descriptive, not normative tool
– Often to solve very complex, risky problems

TI5142 - Sistem Pendukung Keputusan - Analisis dan 22

Pemodelan
Departemen Teknik Industri
Simulation (2)
• Advantages:
– Theory is straightforward
– Time compression
– Descriptive, not normative
– MSS builder interfaces with manager to gain intimate knowledge of the
problem
– Model is built from the manager's perspective
– Manager needs no generalized understanding. Each component
represents a real problem component
– Wide variation in problem types
– Can experiment with different variables
– Allows for real-life problem complexities
– Easy to obtain many performance measures directly

TI5142 - Sistem Pendukung Keputusan - Analisis dan 23

Pemodelan
Departemen Teknik Industri
Simulation (3)

• Disadvantages:
– Cannot guarantee an optimal solution
– Slow and costly construction process
– Cannot transfer solutions and inferences to solve other
problems
– So easy to sell to managers, may miss analytical solutions
– Software is not so user friendly

TI5142 - Sistem Pendukung Keputusan - Analisis dan 24

Pemodelan
Departemen Teknik Industri
Methodology of Simulation (4)

Model real system and conduct repetitive experiments:

1. Define problem
2. Construct simulation model
3. Test and validate model
4. Design experiments
5. Conduct experiments
6. Evaluate results
7. Implement solution

TI5142 - Sistem Pendukung Keputusan - Analisis dan 25

Pemodelan
Departemen Teknik Industri
Model Base Management System

• MBMS: capabilities similar to that of DBMS

• But, there are no comprehensive model base
management packages
• Each organization uses models somewhat differently
• There are many model classes
• Within each class there are different solution
approaches
• Some MBMS capabilities require expertise and
reasoning
TI5142 - Sistem Pendukung Keputusan - Analisis dan 26
Pemodelan
Departemen Teknik Industri
Ability of MBMS

• Control
• Flexibility
• Feedback
• Interface
• Redundancy reduction
• Increased consistency

TI5142 - Sistem Pendukung Keputusan - Analisis dan 27

Pemodelan
Departemen Teknik Industri
Ability of MBMS

• Using MBBS, user is expected to have :

1. Access and retrieve existing models.
2. Exercise and manipulate existing models
3. Store existing models
4. Maintain existing models
5. Construct new models with reasonable effort

TI5142 - Sistem Pendukung Keputusan - Analisis dan 28

Pemodelan
Departemen Teknik Industri

Management support systems principles and concepts

G. Whymark
Published 2001
Computer Science

This chapter reviews the concept of management support systems

(MSS) their purpose, solution techniques and development
methodologies. MSS is a category of software solutions that are
intensely user oriented and includes systems known as Decision
Support Systems (DSS), Executive Information Systems (EIS),
Executive Support Systems (ESS), and Expert Systems (ES). These
various systems are categorised by purpose, a definition is developed
for each and their function described.

TI5142 - Sistem Pendukung Keputusan - Analisis dan 29

Pemodelan