TOPIC 3: Hypothesis Testing

What is a Hypothesis?

If your sales volumes in bush meat drop; you put forward the hypothesis that "your price
is no longer competitive". You survey the price of your competitor to either reject or fail to
reject the hypothesis. If you find your price to be the lowest, you reject the hypothesis.
Next, you hypothesis that "Ebola has changed the preference of consumers toward bush
meat". If it found to be true, you fail to reject (accept!) the hypothesis. Will you ever
hypothesise that “there is too much traffic in cities”? Or “a child in your neighbourhood cries
every midnight”? Why? Probably it would be absurd to think that traffic in cities or midnight
cries of a neighbourhood child is responsible for the drop in bush meat sales volumes. This
will not be an “intelligent guess” and “testable”. We may say that a hypothesis is an
intelligent guess which is testable.
You can also state Research Questions in the form of a "hypothesis". Hypothesis is singular
and hypotheses are plural. A hypothesis is a tentative statement that explains a particular
phenomenon which is testable. The key word is "testable". Refer to the following
statements:

(i) People from low socio-economic families tend to consume inferior goods .
(ii) Empowerment programmes are more likely to enhance performance.
(iii) Good internal control system may enhance corporate performance
(iv) Listed firms tend to perform better than unlisted firms.

All these are examples of hypotheses. However, these statements are not particularly useful
because words such as "May", "tend to" and "more likely". Using these words tentative words
does not suggest how you would go about proving it. To solve this problem, hypotheses are
used. A hypothesis should consist of the following attributes:
 states two are more variables that are measurable
 states an independent and dependent variable
 states a relationship between the two or more variables
 states a possible predictions

NULL HYPOTHESIS
The null hypothesis is a hypothesis (or hunch) about the population. It represents a theory that
has been put forward because it is believed to be true. The word "null" means nothing or
zero. So, a null hypothesis states that 'nothing happened'. For example, there is no difference
between males and females in critical thinking skills or there is no relationship between
socio-economic status and academic performance. Such a hypothesis is denoted with the
symbol ”Ho:". In other words you are saying,
 You do not expect the groups to be different
 You do not expect the variables to be related

F Consider a study to test the difference in senior staff teaching and non-teaching
perception of empowerment programmes in UCC. The null hypothesis of the study
could be There is no difference in senior staff teaching and non-teaching
perception of empowerment programmes in UCC.
This is represented by the following two type’s null hypotheses with the following notation or
Ho:

25
 Ho: µ1 = µ2 OR Ho: µ1 - µ2 = 0
In other words, you are saying that:
 The senior staff teaching perception mean score (µ1) is EQUAL to the senior staff
non-teaching perception mean score (µ2).
 The senior staff teaching perception mean score (µ1) MINUS the senior staff non-
teaching perception mean score (µ2) is equal to ZERO.

The null hypothesis is often the reverse of what the researcher actually believes in and it is
put forward to allow the data to contradict it
[You may find it strange but that's the way it is!]

CONCLUSION:
 Based on the findings of the data, you found that there was a significant difference in
the mean score between the senior staff non-teaching perception mean score and the
senior staff teaching perception mean score. In fact, the senior staff teaching
perception mean score was higher than the senior staff non-teaching perception mean
score. What do you do?
 You REJECT the null hypothesis because earlier you had said they would be equal.
 You reject the null hypothesis in favor of the ALTERNATIVE HYPOTESIS
(i.e. µ1 ≠ µ2).

Alternative Hypothesis
F The Alternative Hypothesis (H1) is the opposite of the Null Hypothesis. For example,
the alternative hypothesis for the study discussed earlier is There is difference in
senior staff teaching and non-teaching perception of empowerment programmes in
UCC represented by the following notation:
Ha: µ1 ≠ µ2
 Ha: The Alternative Hypothesis might be that the senior staff teaching perception
mean score is HIGHER than senior staff non-teaching perception mean score.
Ha: µ1 > µ2
 Ha: The Alternative Hypothesis might be that senior staff teaching perception means
score between senior staff non-teaching perception mean score are DIFFERENT.
Ha: µ1 < µ2
 Ha: The Alternative Hypothesis might be that the senior staff teaching perception
means score is LOWER than the senior staff non-teaching perception mean score

TYPE 1 AND TYPE 2 ERRORS

The aim of any hypothesis-testing situation is to make a decision; in particular, you have to
decide whether to reject the Null Hypothesis (Ho), in favour of the Alternative Hypothesis
(Ha). Although you would like to be able to make a correct decision always that are times
when you might make a wrong decision. You can claim that the two means are not equal in
the population when in fact they are. Or you can fail to say that there is a difference when
they are really a difference. Statisticians have given names to these two types of errors as
follows:

 Type 1 Error: Claiming that two means are not equal when in fact they are equal. In
other words, you reject a null hypothesis when it is TRUE.

26
  Type 2 Error: Not finding a difference between two means when in fact there is a
difference. In other words, you reject a null hypothesis when it is FALSE.

How do you remember to differentiate between the types of errors?

 Type 1 Error is the error you are likely to make when you examine your data and say
that "Something is happening here!" For example, you conclude that "There is a
difference between senior staff teaching and senior staff non-teaching ". In actual
fact, there is NO difference between senior staff teaching and senior staff non-
teaching in the population.
 Type 2 Error is the error you are likely to make when you examine your data and say
"Nothing is happening here!" . For example, you conclude that "There is no difference
between senior staff teaching and senior staff non-teaching ". In actual fact, there is
a difference between senior staff teaching and senior staff non-teaching in the
population.

In the real world the null hypothesis is actually.......

Ho: µ1 = µ2 OR Ho: µ1 - µ2 = 0

Four Possible Situations in Testing a Hypothesis

The null hypothesis can be either true or false and you can either reject or not reject the null
hypothesis. There are 4 possible situations which arise in testing a hypothesis and they are
summarises as follows:

False true

Do not reject Correct decision Risk committing

(Say it true) No problem Type 2 error

Reject Risk committing Correct decision

(Say it is false) Type1 error No problem

Based on your study:

 You decide to Reject the Null Hypothesis (Ho:). You have a correct decision if in the
real world the null hypothesis is TRUE.
 You decide to Reject the Null Hypothesis (Ho:). You risk committing Type 1 Error if
in the real world the hypothesis is TRUE.
 You decide NOT to Reject the Null Hypothesis (Ho:). You risk committing Type 2
Error if in the real world the hypothesis is FALSE.
 You decide NOT to Reject the Null Hypothesis (Ho:). You have made a correct
decision if in the real world the null hypothesis is FALSE.
In other words, when you detect a difference in the sample you are studying and a difference
also is detected in the population, you are OK. When there is no difference in the sample you

27
are studying and there is no difference in the population you are OK. However, it is Not OK
when you risk committing Type 1 and Type 2 error.

TWO-TAIL vs. ONE-TAIL TESTS

In your study, you want to determine if there is a difference in perception of empowerment
between senior staff teaching and senior staff non-teaching; i.e. null hypothesis Ho: H1 =
H2. The alternative hypothesis is Ha: H1 ≠ H2.
A hypothesis test whose alternative hypothesis has this form (i.e. H1 ≠ H), is called a
TWO-TAILED TEST.

In your study, you want to determine if the perception of empowerment of senior staff
teaching is lower compared to senior staff non-teaching; i.e. null hypothesis Ho: H1 = H2.
The alternative hypothesis is Ha: H1 < H2.
A hypothesis test whose alternative hypothesis has this form (i.e. H1 < H), is called a
LEFT TAILED TEST.

In your study, you want to determine if the perception of empowerment of senior staff
teaching is higher compared to senior staff non-teaching; i.e. null hypothesis Ho: H1 = H2.
The alternative hypothesis is Ha: H1 > H2.
A hypothesis test whose alternative hypothesis has this form (i.e. H1 < H2), is called a
RIGHT TAILED TEST.

Note:
A hypothesis test is called a ONE-TAILED TEST if it is either left-tailed or right-tailed;
i.e. if it is not TWO-TAILED.

TWO-TAILED TESTS

EXAMPLE 1:
You conduct a study to determine there is a difference in perception of empowerment
between senior staff teaching and senior staff non-teaching. Your sample consists of 40
teaching and 42 non-teaching. You administer a 30 item empowerment scale item to the
sample and the results of the study showed that teaching mean perception score is 23.90
while non-teaching score is 24.50.

Step 1:
The null and alternative hypotheses are:
Ho: H1 = H2 (Mean scores on teaching and non-teaching are the same
Ha: H1 ≠ H2 (Mean scores on teaching and non-teaching are different)
Step 2:
Decide on the significant level (alpha). Here you have set it at the 5% significant level or
alpha (α) = 0.05.
Step 3:
Computation of the test statistic. Using the independent t-test formula (to be discussed latter)
you obtaind a t-value of - 1.554
Step 4:
Since n1 = 40 and n2 = 42, degrees of freedom (df) is 40 + 42 - 2 = 80. Using the alpha (α) of
0.05; check the "Table of Critical Values for the t-Test". Refer to the two-tailed row and it is

28
0.025 (0.050 divided by 2 for each tail). You find that the critical value is + and - 1.990 as
shown on the graph.

Table of Critical Values for Student's t-test

Tailed

Two 0.250 0.100 0.050 0.025 0.010 0.005

One 0.500 0.200 0.100 0.050 0.020 0.010

df

50 0.679 1.299 1.676 2.009 2.403 2.678

60 0.679 1.296 1.671 2.000 2.390 2.660

70 0.678 1.294 1.667 1.994 2.381 2.648

80 0.678 1.292 1.664 1.990 2.374 2.639

90 0.677 1.291 1.662 1.987 2.368 2.632

Step 5:
You find that the t-value obtained is - 1.554 does not fall in the Rejection region. What is
your conclusion? You do not reject Ho. In other words, you conclude that there is NO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE in perception of empowerment between senior staff teaching
and senior staff non-teaching You could also say that the test results are not statistically
significant at the 5% level.
At = 0.05, the data does not provide sufficient evidence to conclude that the mean scores on
teaching is superior to that to non-teaching, even though the mean of the former is higher
than the latter.

29
ONE-TAILED TEST

EXAMPLE:
You conduct a study to determine if students taught to use mind maps are better in recalling
concepts and principles in economics. A sample of 10 students were administered a 20 item
economics test before the treatment (i.e. pretest). The same test was administered after the
treatment (i.e. posttest) which lasted for six weeks.

Step 1:
The null and alternative hypotheses are:
Ho: µ1 = µ2 (Mean scores on the posttest and the
pretest are the same)
Ha: µ1 > µ2 (Mean scores on the posttest is greater
than the pretest)
The above is a "right tailed" test/
Step 2:
Decide on the significant level (alpha). Here you have set it at the 5% significant level or
alpha (α) = 0.05.
Step 3:
Computation of the test statistic. Using the Dependent t-test formula you obtaind a t-value
of 4.711
Step 4:
The critical value for the right-tailed test is tα with df = n-1. The number of subjects is n = 10
and α = 0.05. You check the "Table of Critical Values for the t-Test" and it reveals that for df
= 10 – 1 = 9. The critical value is 1.833 and is shown in the graph below.

Table of Critical Values for Student's t-Test

α 0.10 0.05 0.025 0.01 0.005 0.001

df

2. 1.886 2.920 4.303 6.965 9.925 22.327

3. 1.638 2.353 3.182 4.541 5.841 10.215
4. 1.533 2.132 2.776 3.747 4.604 7.173
5. 1.476 2.015 2.571 3.365 4.032 5.893
6. 1.440 1.943 2.447 3.143 3.707 5.208
7. 1.415 1.895 2.365 2.998 3.499 4.782
8. 1.397 1.860 2.306 2.896 3.355 4.499
9. 1.383 1.833 2.262 2.821 3.250 4.296
10. 1.372 1.812 2.228 2.764 3.169 4.143
11. 1.363 1.796 2.201 2.718 3.106 4.024
12. 1.356 1.782 2.179 2.681 3.055 3.929

30
Step 5:
You find that the t-value obtained is 1.833 falls in the Rejection region. What is your
conclusion? You Reject Ho: In other words, you conclude that there is a SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE in the performance in economics before and after the treatment. You could
also say that the test results are statistically significant at the 5% level. Put it another way, the
p-value is less than the specified significance level of 0.05. [The p-value is provided in most
outputs of statistical packages such as the SPSS].
At alpha= 0.05, the data provides sufficient evidence to conclude that the mean scores on the
posstest are superior to the mean scores obtained in the pretest. Evidently, teaching students
mind mapping enhances their recall of concepts and principles in economics.

31
 Topic 4: NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

WHAT IS THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION?

The term normal distribution refers to a particular way in which scores or observations will
tend to pile up or distribute around a particular value rather than be scattered all over. The
normal distribution which is bell-shaped is based on a mathematical equation (which we will
not get into!).
While some argue that in the real world, scores or observations are seldom normally
distributed, others argue that in the general population, many variables such as height,
weight, IQ scores, reading ability, job satisfaction, blood pressure turn out to have
distributions that are bell-shaped or normal.

WHAT ARE THE PARAMETERS OF THE NORMAL CURVE?

A normal distribution (or normal curve) is completely determined by the mean and standard
deviation. i.e. two normally distributed variables having the same mean and standard
deviation must have the same distribution. We often identify a normal curve by stating the
corresponding mean and standard deviation and calling those the parameters of the normal
curve.
A normal distribution is symmetric about the centred at the mean of the variable, and its
spread depends on the standard deviation of the variable. The larger the standard deviation,
the flatter and more spread out is the distribution.

FORTUNATELY, these statistical tests work very well even if the distribution is only
approximately normally distributed. Some tests work well even with very wide deviations
from normality. They are described as 'robust' tests that are able to tolerate the lack of a
normal distribution.

ILLUSTRATION OF THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OR THE NORMAL CURVE

Graph showing a normal distribution of IQ scores among adolescents

<===== 1 SD ======>
<============= 2 SD ===============>

<====================== 3 SD ======================>

32
The graph above is a picture of a normal distribution of IQ scores among a sample of
adolescents.
 Mean is 100
 Standard Deviation is 15.
As you can see, the distribution is symmetric. If you folded the graph in the centre, the two
sides would match, i.e. they are identical.

MEAN. MODE AND MEDIAN

The centre of the distribution is the mean. The mean of a normal distribution is also the
most frequently occuring value (i.e. the mode), and it is also the value that divides the
distribution of scores into two equal parts (i.e. the median). In any normal distribution, the
mean, median and the mode all have the same value (i.e. 100 in the example above).

THE THREE-STANDARD-DEVIATIONS RULE

The normal distribution shows the area under the curve. The Three-standard-deviations
rule, when applied to a variable states that almost all the possible observations or scores of
the variable lie within three standard deviations to either side of the mean. The normal curve
is close to (but does not touch) the horizontal axis outside the range of the three standard
deviations to either side of the mean. Based on the graph above, you will notice that with a
mean of 100 and a standard deviation of 15;
 68% of all IQ scores fall between 85 (i.e. one standard deviation less then the mean
which is 100 - 15 = 85) and 115. (i.e. one standard deviation more than the mean
which is 100 + 15 = 115).
 95% of all IQ scores fall between 70 (i.e. two standard deviations less then the mean
which is 100 - 30 = 70) and 130. (i.e. two standard deviations more than the mean
which is 100 + 30 = 130.
 99% of all IQ scores fall between 55 (i.e. three standard deviations less than the mean
which is 100 - 45 = 55) and 145. (i.e. three standard deviations more than the mean
which is 100 + 45 = 145.
A normal distribution can have any mean and standard deviation. But the percentage of cases
or individuals falling within one, two or three standard deviations from the mean is always
the same. The shape of a normal distribution does not change. Means and standard deviations
will differ from variable to variable. But the percentage of cases or individuals falling within
specific intervals is always the same in a true normal distribution.

INFERENTIAL STATISTICS AND NORMALITY

Often in statistics one would like to assume that the sample under investigation has a normal
distribution or an approximate normal distribution. However, such an assumption should be
supported in some way some technique. As mentioned earlier, the use of several inferential
statistics such as the t-test and ANOVA require that the distribution of the variables analysed
are normally distributed or at least approximately normally distributed. However, if a simple
random sample is taken from a population, the distribution of the observed values of a
variable in the sample will approximate the distribution of the population. Generally, the
larger the sample, the better the approximation tends to be. In other words, if the population
is normally distributed, the sample of observed values would also be normally distributed if
the sample is randomly selected and it is large enough.

33
ASSESSING NORMALITY USING GRAPHICAL METHODS
Assessing normality means determining whether the variables you are studying are normally
distributed. When you draw a sample from a population that is normally distributed, it does
not mean that your sample will necessarily have a distribution that is exactly normal. Samples
vary, so the distribution of each sample may also vary. However, if a sample is reasonably
large and it comes from normal population, its distribution should look more or less normal.
For example, when you administer a questionnaire to a group of customers, you want to be
sure that your sample of 250 customers is normally distributed. WHY? The assumption of
normality is a prerequisite for many inferential statistical techniques and there are two main
ways of determining the normality of distribution.
 Using graphical methods (such as histograms, stem-and-lead plots and boxplots)
 Using statistical procedures.(such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic and the
Shapiro-Wilks statistics)

SPSS Procedures for Assessing Normality:

There are several procedures to obtain the different graphs and statistics to assess
normality, nut the EXPLORE procedure is the most convenient when both graphs and
statistics are required.

 Select the Analyse menu

 Click on Descriptive Statistics and then Explore ....to open the Explore dialogue
box
 Select the variable you require and click on the button to move this variable into the
Dependent List: box
 Click on the Plots...command pushbutton to obtain the Explore: Plots sub dialogue
box
 Click on the Histogram check box and the Normality plots with tests check box,
and ensure that the Factor levels together radio button is selected in the Boxplots
display
 Click on Continue
 In the Display box, ensure that Both is activated
 Click on the Options...command pushbutton to open the Explore: Options sub-
dialogue box
 In the Missing Values box, click on the Exclude cases pairwise (if not selected by
default)
 Click on Continue and then OK.

a) ASSESSING NORMALITY USING THE HISTOGRAM

Performance index of firms

34
See the Graph which is a histogram showing the distribution of scores performance index of
firms.

 The values on the vertical axis indicate the freqency or number of cases.
 The values on the horizontal axis are midpoints of value ranges. For example, the first
bar is 20 and the second bar is 30, indicating that each bar covers a range of 10.

Superimposed on the histogram is the normal curve. Simply looking at the bars indicates that
the distribution has the rough shape of a normal distribution. The superimposed curve,
however shows that there are some deviations. The question is whether this deviation is small
enough to say that the distribution is approximately normal.

SKEWNESS:
Skewness is the degree of departure from symmetry of a distribution. A normal distribution is
symmetrical. A non-symmetrical distribution is described as being either negatively or
positively skewed. A distribution is skewed if one of its tail is longer than the other or the tail
pulled to either the left or right.

Positive skew
Skewness = 1.5
Refer to the figure above which shows the distribution of the scores obtained by students on a
test. There is a positive skew because it has a longer tail in the positive direction or the long
tail is on the right side (towards the high values on the horizontal axis).
What does it mean? It means that more students were getting low scores in the test which
indicates that the test was too difficult. Alternatively, it could mean that the questions were
not clear or the teaching methods and materials did not bring about the desired learning
outcomes.

35
Negative skew
Skewness = -1.5

Refer to the graph above which shows the distribution of the scores obtained by students on a
test. There is a negative skew because it has a longer tail in the negative direction or to the
left (towards the lower values on the horizontal axis).
What does it mean? It means that more students were getting high scores on the test which
may indicate that either the test was too easy or the teaching methods and materials were
successful in bringing about the desired learning outcomes

Interpreting the Statistics for Skewness

Besides graphical methods, you can also determine skewness by examining the statistics
reported. A normal distribution has a skewness of 0. See the Table on the right which reports
the skewness statistics for three independent groups. A positive value indicated a positive
skew while a negative value reflects a negative skew.
Among the three groups, Group 3 is not normally distributed compared to the other two
groups. Its skewness value of -1.200 which is greater than 1 and normally indicates that the
distribution is non-symmetrical [Rule of thumb - > 1 indicates a non-symmetrical
distribution].
The distribution of Group 2 with a skewness value of .235 is closes to being normal of 0
followed by Group 1 with a skewness value of .973.

SPSS Output:

GROUP 1 Skewness .973

GROUP 2 Skewness +.235

GROUP 3 Skewness - 1.200

KURTOSIS:
Kurtosis indicates the degree of "flatness" or "peakedness" in a distribution relative to the
shape of normal distribution. With reference to the graphs below:

36
Low Kurtosis: Data with low kurtosis tend to have a flat top near the mean rather than a
sharp peak.

High Kurtosis: Data with high kurtosis tend to have a distinct peak near the mean, decline
rather rapidly and have heavy tail

See Graph on the right:

 A normal distribution has a kurtosis of 0 and is called mesokurtic (Graph A).
[Strictly speaking a mesokurtic distribution has a value of 3 but in line with the
practice used in SPSS packages, the adjusted version is 0]
 If a distribution is peaked (tall and skinny), its kurtosis value is greater than 0 and it is
said to be leptokurtic (Graph B) and has a positive kurtosis.
 If, on the other hand, the kurtosis is flat, its value is less than 0, or platykurtic (Graph
C) and has a negative kurtosis.

Mesokurtic Leptokurtic Platyurtic

[Normal]
k=0 k > 0 (e.g. +1.5) k < 0 (e.g. - 1.5)

Interpreting the Statistics for Skewness

Besides graphical methods, you can also determine skewness by examining the statistics
reported. A normal distribution has a kurtosis 0. See the Table on the right which reports the
kurtosis statistics for three independent groups.
 Group 1 which a kurtosis value of 0.500 (positive value) is more normally distributed
than the other two groups because it is closer to 0.

37
  Group 2 with a kurtosis value of -1.58 has a distribution that is more flattened and not
as normally distributed compare to Group 1.
 Group 3 with a kurtosis value + 1.65 has a distribution that more peaked and not as
normally distributed compared to Group 1.

SPSS Output:

GROUP 1 Kurtosis .500

GROUP 2 Kurtosis -1.58

GROUP 3 Kurtosis 1.65

ASSESSING NORMALITY USING THE BOXPLOT

Tukey (1977) developed a graphical technique called the box plot or box and whisker plot
which gives us a clear indication of the extreme scores in a distribution like the histogram.
Unlike the histogram which plots actual values, the boxplot summarises the distribution using
the median, the 25th and 75th percentiles, and extreme scores in the distribution. See the
Figure below which shows a boxplot for the same set of data on Scientific Literacy discussed
earlier. Note that the lower boundry of the box is the 25th percentile and the upper boundry is
the 75th percentile.

The largest observed value within the distribution is represented by the horizontal line at the
end of the box, referred to as 'wisker'.

38
Box plot
The median is presented by a horizontal line through the centre of the box
The smallest observed value within the distribution is represented by the horizontal line at the
end of the box, referred to as 'wisker'

The BOX
 The box has hinges that form the outer boundaries of the box. The hinges are the
scores that cut of the top and bottom 25% of the data. Thus, 50% of the scores fall
within the hinges.
 The thick horizontal line through the box represents the median in the case of a
normal distribution the line runs through the centre of the box.
 If the median is closer to the top of the box, then the distribution is negatively skewed.
If it is closer to the bottom of the box, then it is positively skewed.
The WHISKER
 The smallest and largest observed values within the distribution are represented by the
horizontal lines at either end of the box, commonly referred as as whiskers.
 The two whiskers indicate the spread of the scores.
 Any scores that fall outside the upper and lower whiskers are classed as extreme
scores or outliers. If the distribution has any extreme scores, i.e. 3 or more box lengths
from the upper or lower hinge; these will be represented by a circle (o).
 Outliers tell us that we should see why it is so extreme. Could it be that you may have
made an error in data entry.
 Why is it important to identify ouliers? This is because many of the statistical
techniques used involve calculation of means. The mean is sensitive to extreme scores
and it is important to be aware whether you data contain such extreme scores if you
are to draw conclusions from the statistical analysis conducted.

39
ASSESSING NORMALITY USING THE NORMALITY PROBABILITY PLOT
Besides the histogram and the box plot, another frequently used graphical technique of
determining normality is the "Normality Probablity Plot" or "Normal Q-Q Plot". The idea
behind a normal probability plot is simple. It compares the observed values of the variable to
the observations expected for a normally distributed variable. More precisely, a normal
probability plot is a plot of the observed values of the variable versus the normal scores (the
observations expected for a variable having the standard normal distribution).
In a normal probability plot, each observed or value (score) obtained is paired with its
theoretical normal distribution forming a linear pattern. If the sample is from a normal
distribution, then the observed values or scores fall more or less in a straight line. The normal
probability plot is formed by:
 Vertical axis: Expected normal values

 Horizontal axis: Observed values

SPSS Procedures

1. Select the Analyze menu.

2. Click on Descriptive Statistics and then Explore .....to pen the Explore dialogue box
3. Select the variable you require (i.e. mathematics score) and clikc on button to move this
variable to the Dependent List: box
4. Click on the Plots....command pushbutton to obtain the Explore: Plots subdialogue box
5. Click on the Histogram check box and the Normality plots with tests check box and
ensure that the Factor levels together
radio button is selected in the Boxplots display
6. Click on Continue
7. In the Display box, ensure that Both is activitaed
8. Click on the Options....command pushbutton to open the Explore: Options sub-dialogue
box.

40
9. In the Missing Values box, click on the Exclude cases pairwise radion button. If this
option is not selected then, by default,
any variable with missing data will be excluded from the analysis. That is, plots and
statistics will generated only for cases with
complete data.
10.Click on Continue and then OK

Note that these commands will give you the 'Histogram', 'Stem-and-leaf plots', 'Boxplots' and
Normality Plots.

When you use a normal probability plot to assess the normality of a variable, you must
remember that the decision of whether the distribution is roughly linear and is normal is a
subjective one. The graph above is an example of a normal probability plot. Though none of
the value fall exactly on the line, most of the points are very close to the line.
 Value that are above the line represent units for which the observation is larger than
its normal score.
 Value that are below the line represent units for which the observation is smaller than
its normal score.
Note that there is one value that falls well outside the overall pattern of the plot. It is called an
outlier and you will have to remove the outlier from the sample data and redraw the normal
probability plot. Even with the outlier, the values are close to the line and you can conclude
that the distribution will look like a bell-shaped curve. If the normal scores plot departs only

41
slightly from having all of its dots on the line, then the distribution of the data departs only
slightly from a bell-shaped curve. If one or more of the dots departs substantially from the
line, then the distribution of the data is substantially different from a bell-shape.

Outliers:
Refer to the normal probability plot on the right. Note that there are possible outliers which
are values lying off the hypothetical straight line.
Outliers are anomalous values in the data which may be due to recording errors, which may
be correctable, or they may be due to the sample not being entirely from the same population.

Skewness to the left:

Refer to the normal probability plot on the left. Both ends of the normality plot fall below the
straight line passing through the main body of the values of the probability plot, then the
population distribution from which the data were sampled may be skewed to the left.

42
Skewness to the right:
If both ends of the normality plot bend above the straight line passing through the values of
the probability plot, then the population distribution from which the data were sampled may
be skewed to the right.

Normal Probability Plot

10 20 40 60 80 100
Mathematics Scores
Refer to the output of a Normal Probability Plot for the distribution of mathematics scores by
eight students:
a) Comment on the distribution of scores
b) Would you consider the distribution normal?
c) Are there outliers?

43
ASSESSING NORMALITY USING STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES
The graphical methods discussed present qualitative information about the distribution of
data that may not be apparent from statistical tests. Histograms, box plots and normal
probability plots are graphical methods are useful for determining whether data follow a
normal curve. Extreme deviations from normality are often readily identified from graphical
methods. However, in many instances the decision is not straightforward. Using graphical
methods to decide whether a data set is normally distributed involves making a subjective
decision; formal test procedures are usually necessary to test the assumption of normality.

In general, both statistical tests and graphical plots should be used to determine normality.
However, the assumption of normality should not be rejected on the basis of a statistical test
alone. In particular, when the sample is large, available, statistical tests for normality can be
sensitive to very small (i.e., negligible) deviations in normality. Therefore, if the sample is
very large, a statistical test may reject the assumption of normality when the data set, as
shown using graphical methods, is essentially normal and the deviation from normality too
small to be of practical significance.

KOLMOGOROV-SMIRNOV TEST
You could use the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic Z test evaluates statistically whether the
difference between the observed distribution and a theoretical normal distribution is small
enough to be just due to chance. If it could be due to chance you would treat the distribution
as being normal. If the distribution between the actual distribution and the theoretical normal
distribution is larger than is likely to be due to chance (sampling error) then you would treat
the actual distribution as not being normal.

In terms of hypothesis testing, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is based on Ho: that the data are
normally distributed. The test is used for samples which have more than 50 subjects.

Ho: µ1 = µ2 OR Ha: µ1 ≠ µ2

 If the Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z tests yields a significance level of less (<) than 0.05, it
means that the distribution is NOT normal.
 If the Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z test yields a significance level of more (>) than 0.05, it
means that the distribution is normal.

Table showing the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic for assessing normality

Kolmogrorov-Smirnov (a)
Statistic df Sig.
score .21 1598 .000*
* This is lower bound of the true signifcance
(a) Lilliefors Significance Correction

44
The Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z test indicates that the p-value is less than 0.05 and hence you
REJECT the null hypotheis. You conclude that for this particular distribution is NOT
NORMAL.

SHAPIRO - WILK TEST

Another powerful and most commonly employed tests for normality is the W test by Shapiro
and Wilk, also called the Shapiro-Wilk test. It is an effective method for testing whether a
data set has been drawn from a normal distribution.
 If the normal probability plot is approximately linear (the data follow a normal curve),
the test statistic will be relatively high.
 If the normal probability plot has curvature that is evidence of non-normality in the
tails of a distribution, the test statistic will be relatively low.

In terms of hypothesis testing, the Shapiro-Wilk test is based on Ho: that the data are
normally distributed. The test is used for samples which have less than 50 subjects.

Ho: µ1 = µ2 OR Ha: µ1 ≠ µ2

 Reject the assumption of normality if the test of signficance reports a p-value of

less (<) than 0.05
 DO NOT REJECT the assumption of normality if the test of significance reports
a p-value of more (>) than 0.05.

SPSS output: Table showing the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic for assessing normality

Tests of Normality

Shapiro-Wilk

Independent variable group Statistic df Sig.

Group 1 .912 22 .055

Group 2 . .166 14 .442

Group 3 .900 16 .084

The Shapiro-Wilk normality tests indicate that the scores are normally distributed in each of
the three groups. All the p-values reported are more than 0.05 and hence you DO NOT
REJECT the null hypothesis.

In terms of hypothesis testing, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is based on Ho: that the data are
normally distributed. The test is used for samples which have more than 50 subjects.

Ho: µ1 = µ2 OR Ha: µ1 ≠ µ2

 If the Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z tests yields a significance level of less (<) than 0.05, it
means that the distribution is NOT normal.

45
 If the Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z test yields a significance level of more (>) than 0.05, it
means that the distribution is normal.
NOTE:
 It should be noted that with large samples even a very small deviation from normality
can yield low significance levels, so a judgement still has to be made as to whether
the departure from normality is large enough to matter.

WHY IS THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION IMPORTANT

The normal distribution is important for the following reasons:
 Many kinds of statistical tests (such as the t-test, ANOVA) are derived from a normal
distribution. In other words, most of these statistical tests argue that they work best
when the sample tested is distributed normally. In short, it helps you to select
appropriate statistical test.
WHAT TO DO IF THE DISTRIBUTION IS NOT NORMAL?
You have TWO choices if the distribution is not normal and they are:
 Use a Nonparametric Statistic Instead
 Transform the Variable to Make it Normal

a) Use a Nonparametric Statistic

In many cases, if the distribution is not normal an alternative statistic will be available,
especially for bivariate analyses such as correlation or comparisons of means. These
alternatives which do not require normal distributions are called nonparametric or
distribution-free statistics. Some of these alternatives are shown below:

Purpose of Parametric Non-Parametric

Analysis Statistics Statistics

Differences between - Mann-Whitney U test

two independent t-test - Kolmogorov-Smirnov
two means sample Z test

Differences between t-test - Wilcoxon's matched

two dependent means pairs test

Differences between more Oneway - Kurskal-Wallis analysis

than two means ANOVA of ranks

Differences between more Repeated - Friedman's two-way

than two means that is measures analysis of variance
repeated ANOVA - Cochran Q test

Relationship between Pearson r - Spearman Rho

variables - Kendall's tau
- Chi-square

b) Transform the Variable to make it Normal

The shape of a distribution can be changed by expressing it in different way statistically. This
is referred to as transforming the distribution; Different types of transformations can be

46
applied to "normalize" the distribution. The type of transformation selected depends on the
manner to which the distribution departs from normality.
Positive skew
The more commonly used transformations which are appropriate for data which are skewed
to the right with increasing strength (positive skew) are 1/x, log(x) and sqrt(x), where the x's
are the data values.
Negative skew
The more commonly used transformations which are appropriate for data which are skewed
to the left with increasing strength (negative skew) are squaring, cubing, and exp(x).

47