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Ebook PDF Etextbook PDF For Global Climate Change Turning Knowledge Into Action Full Chapter
Ebook PDF Etextbook PDF For Global Climate Change Turning Knowledge Into Action Full Chapter
Preface XVi
about the author XX
chapter
1 “So, What’s Up with the
Weather?” 2
Weather and Climate 4
Is the Climate Changing? 4
How Stable Is the Climate? 4
Historical Climate Change 5
Pause for thought 1.1 5
Recent Climate Change 6
Summary 22 Why Should We
A Century of Warming 8 Care? 22 Looking Ahead . . . 22 Critical
Pause for thought 1.2 10 Thinking Questions 23 Key Terms 23
Has Warming Stopped? 10 chapter
Pause for thought 1.3 11 2 the evidence: observing
Lessons from the Deep Past 11 Climate Change 24
Pause for thought 1.4 11
Global Temperature 26
Major Factors that Affect Climate
Estimating Global Temperature 27
Change 11
Why Use Temperature Anomalies? 27
Radiative Forcing 12
Pause for thought 2.1 28
Radiative Feedback 13
The Temperature Data 28
Timescales of Climate Change 14
Land Surface Temperature 28
Pause for thought 1.5 17
Ocean Air and Sea Surface
Greenhouse Gases 17
Temperature 28
Climate Models 18
Air Balloons 29
How Accurate Are Economic
Satellites 29
Projections? 19
Satellites and Sea Surface
Should Climate Models Be Used to Guide
Temperature 29
Policy? 21
Global Historic Climatology Network 29
Pause for thought 1.6 21
Missing Data 30
The Next Decade? 21
Changes in Sea Level 30
vii
viii Global Climate ChanGe
chapter
5 Revealing ancient
Climate 128
Decoding the Past 130
Pause for thought 5.1 130
A Story in Stone 130
The Climatologist’s Toolbox 131
Interpreting Lithology 131
Pause for thought 5.2 132
Pause for thought 5.3 135
chapter
Pause for thought 5.4 136 6 Climate history 160
Pause for thought 5.5 139 Climate, Life, and Geological
Using Chemistry to Interpret Ancient Time 162
Climate 139 Pause for thought 6.1 162
Pause for thought 5.6 145 What Controlled Ancient
Trace Elements as Environmental Climate? 162
Markers 146 Fire and Ice: The Story of “Snowball”
Organic Chemicals as a Proxy for Ocean Earth 162
Temperature 146 The Power of Ice 162
Fossils as Environmental Indicators 147 The Power of Greenhouse Gases 164
Pause for thought 5.7 148
From Ice to Oven 164
The Recent Past 149
Ice and Coal: The Great Permo-
Dendrochronology: Using Tree Rings to Carboniferous Glaciation 165
Date Climate Change 149
Why a Carboniferous Glaciation? 165
Dendroclimatology: Tree Rings as a Proxy Pause for thought 6.2 167
for Climate Change 150
The Great Extinction: The Permo-
Pause for thought 5.8 150
Triassic Climate Crisis 167
Scleroclimatology: Corals as a Proxy for
The Permo-Triassic World 167
Climate Change 151
Could the Permo-Triassic Extinction
Stalactites and Stalagmites as Proxies of
Happen Today? 168
Climate Change 151
Pause for thought 6.3 169
The Record of Climate Change in Ice
The Cretaceous Hothouse
Cores 152
World 170
Pause for thought 5.9 154
Cretaceous Volcanism 170
The Record of Climate Change from
Sediment Cores 155 Cretaceous Atmospheric
Temperatures 171
Pause for thought 5.10 157
Carbon Dioxide in the Cretaceous Atmo-
Summary 158 Why Should We
Care? 158 Looking Ahead . . . 158 Critical sphere 171
Thinking Questions 159 Key Terms 159 The Cretaceous Oceans 172
Contents xi
Cooling the Cretaceous 173 Living in a Land of Ice and Snow 189
Does the Cretaceous Provide a Vision of Climate Stability: Is It Always Cold During
the Future? 173 an Ice Age? 192
The K–T Extinction 173 Pause for Thought 6.10 195
Pause for Thought 6.4 174 The Ice Core Story: An 800,000-Year Record
The Last Days of “Summer” 174 of Our Recent Climate History 195
Pause for Thought 6.11 196
Too Hot for Comfort: The Paleocene
Epoch 175 Rapid Climate Change 197
Pause for Thought 6.12 200
The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Anomaly
(PETA): A Vision of the Future? 175 The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM): The End
Pause for Thought 6.5 179 of an Ice Age 200
Examples of the Impact of Climate Change The Social and Human Impacts of Ocean
on the Environment 214 Acidification 232
Dealing with Risk and Uncertainty 214 Waiting for Political Action 232
Adaptation to Climate Change in Case Study 5: The Roof of the
the Natural World 216 World 232
Terrestrial Biomes and Ecosystems 216 The Himalayas as a Reservoir of Water 233
Environmental Vulnerability 218 Warming the Himalayas 233
Human Impact on the Biosphere 218 Pause for thought 7.3 237
How Will Ecosystems Adapt to Modern Case Study 6: Rising Global Sea
Climate Change? 218 Level 237
Case Studies of the Global Impact The Last Great Flood 237
of Climate Change 219 Expanding the Ocean 238
How to Approach the Case Studies 220 Melting the Last Great Ice Sheets 238
Case Study 1: Freshwater Understanding Ice Sheet Dynamics 238
Resources 220 The Impact of Rising Sea Level 238
Water Supply 221 Case Study 7: Small Pacific Island
Water Stress 221 Communities 244
Water Stress in the United States 221 Pause for thought 7.4 245
Water Stress in Europe 223 Pause for thought 7.5 245
The Middle East: Water Stress and Political Case Study 8: Sickness and
Conflict 224 Diseases 245
Pause for thought 7.1 225 The Deterioration of Human Health 246
Sub-Saharan Africa: Drought and The Threat from Malaria 246
Migration 225 Case Study 9: The Melting of Arctic
Case Study 2: The Amazon Tundra 247
Forests 225 Disappearing Tundra and
A Treasure of Biodiversity 225 Permafrost 247
A Wealth of Human Knowledge 226 Pause for thought 7.6 250
Carbon Storage in the Amazon 226 Are There Any Positive Impacts of
Pause for thought 7.2 227 Climate Change? 250
Case Study 3: Reef Systems 227 Summary 252 Why Should We
Care? 252 Looking Ahead . . . 252 Critical
The Great Barrier Reef 227 Thinking Questions 252 Key Terms 253
Coral Bleaching 227
Lessons from El Niño 228 chapter
An Eye in the Sky 228 8 People and Politics 254
Case Study 4: Ocean Acidification 230
Climate Policy 256
Understanding Ocean Chemistry 230
The Role of Stakeholders 256
Making and Dissolving Shells 230 Pause for thought 8.1 257
Rapidly Changing Ocean Chemistry 231 Informing Legislation: Sources of Climate
Endangering Shallow Marine Data in the United States 258
Ecosystems 231 Weighing the Costs and Benefits in the
Struggling Reef Systems 231 Climate Debate 258
Contents xiii
chapter
9 the energy Crisis 288
Enhancing the Sequestration of CO2 from Fuel Switching and CCS 338
Fossil Fuels 331 Renewables 338
Increasing the Generation of Power Biostorage 338
from Sources That Produce Fewer
Pause for Thought 10.2 339
Emissions 332
The United States: Regional and
Enhancing CO2 Sequestration During
State Initiatives 339
Industrial Production 332
Geoengineering: A Last
Increasing the Efficiency of Public and
Resort? 339
Commercial Transport by Road 333
Geoengineering Technologies 339
Decreasing the Use of Public and
Solar Radiation Management (SRM) 340
Commercial Transport by Road 333
Carbon Dioxide Reduction (CDR) 341
Decreasing the Overall Demand for Power
Through Conservation and Geopolitical Implications of
Efficiency 333 Geoengineering 343
Reducing Greenhouse Gases from Waste Epilogue 344
Treatment 334 Accepting Responsibility 344
Stopping Unnecessary Deforestation and The Power of One 345
Loss of Carbon from Soils 334 Time for Action 345
Changing Agricultural Practices to Reduce Pause for Thought 10.3 345
Greenhouse Gas Emissions 336
Summary 346 Why Should We
Driving in the Carbon Wedges: The Care? 346 Looking Ahead . . . 346 Critical
Carbon Mitigation Initiative 337 Thinking Questions 347 Key Terms 347
Efficiency and Conservation 338
Glossary G-1
credits C-1
index I-1
Preface
The danger is that global warming may become self- The climate change debate has shown us that most
sustaining, if it has not done so already. The melting of scientists lack the skills necessary to communicate a
the Arctic and Antarctic ice caps reduces the fraction of complex and nuanced message to policymakers and
solar energy reflected back into space, and so increases the general public, especially when a determined
the temperature further. Climate change may kill off the minority is committed to undermining their message.
Scientists, industrialists, politicians, and the general
Amazon and other rain forests, and so eliminate one of
public are all valid stakeholders in this important
the main ways in which carbon dioxide is removed from
debate, but when extreme views are given unwar-
the atmosphere. The rise in sea temperature may trigger ranted attention, public confusion and dangerous
the release of large quantities of carbon dioxide, trapped inaction result.
as hydrates on the ocean floor. Both these phenomena The world does not have decades to settle out-
would increase the greenhouse effect, and so global standing questions about climate change before taking
warming, further. We have to reverse global warming decisive action. Our action (or inaction) today will have
urgently, if we still can. very real social, economic, political, and environmental
consequences in the futureÐ and our children and
StePhen haWKing, aBc news interview,
grandchildren will hold us accountable.
aug. 16, 2006
As an Earth scientist, I understand that Earth's
climate and ecosystems are subject to natural changes.
every major scientific body in the world now accepts The geological evidence is clear that sometime over the
that human-caused global warming is almost certain next 20,000 years, in the absence of human interven-
to cause significant climate change before the end tion, we will return to the frozen world that predated
of the 21st century. In 2007, The United Nations modern civilization. Much farther back in time, during
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the Cretaceous Period, it is equally clear that the world
concluded, ª Warming of the climate system is was so warm that deciduous forests stretched almost
unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of as far as the poles. Climate change can be natural, but
increases in global average air and ocean tempera- today it is not entirely natural, and for those facing the
tures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising risk of climate change, the question is almost irrele-
global average sea level.º vant. If the climate is changing, for whatever reason, it
Recent years have only deepened this concern. In places the lives of hundreds of thousands in peril and
2012 many climate records were shattered, including the welfare of millions more at risk. There is a major
a new minimum extent for summer ice in the Arctic humanitarian crisis looming in the near future, and it
and the expansive melting of surface ice on Greenland. demands earnest engagement and prudent action.
In the United States, record temperatures started This book will help you reach an informed decision
to dominate the eastern two-thirds of the nation by about global warming and climate change. Your decision
March, and 2012 became the all-time warmest year on will be based on a scientific foundation that separates fact
record. These high temperatures created drought and from hypothesis and reason from conjecture. You will not
wildfires that affected large parts of the nation and find all the answers in these pages, but you should find
the largest hurricane on record hit the northeast coast yourself prepared to ask more of the right questions.
of the United States late in the season, wreaking havoc There is still hope. Your reading and research will
in New York and New Jersey. As the year ended, illuminate many possible solutions. It is a fascinating
record precipitation in parts of the Pacific Northwest journey from science through economics to psychology
delivered more rain in a few days than normally falls and politics. It is a path festooned with hyperbolism
over the entire year. The physical evidence of global and speculation, specious conjecture, and professional
climate change is overwhelming, but a vociferous rivalry, and, at the end, the final destination is still not
minority still refuses to believe that it has anything clear. This is as much a moral, ethical, economic, and
to do with human activity. For the average person political issue as it is a scientific issue, and progress
who wants to understand global climate change and depends on the active engagement of people and gov-
global warming, the debate is very confusing. Many ernments around the world. We take a serious risk by
of the facts and figures are complex and hard to ignoring the early symptoms of climate change. Wishful
understand, and different groups seem to interpret inaction has a very poor historical record of success.
the same data in such different ways. Who should we Whatever the costÐ and there will be a costÐ we all
believe? need to ask ourselves ª What are we willing to pay?º
xvi
Preface xvii
Part Five: Global Solutions: Managing and colleagues at the University of Richmond, for help
and understanding. To Geography/GIS/Meteorology
the Crisis Editor Christian Botting and Senior Project Editor
At a time when global action to prevent climate change Crissy Dudonis for their humanity, constant encour-
is more important than ever before, the world is increas- agement, and help with making this book the best it
ingly distracted by an urgent demand for economic could be. I would also like to thank their colleagues at
growth in the developing world and by the emergence Pearson, including Editorial Assistant Bethany Sexton,
of new geopolitical rivalries. Assistant Editor Sean Hale, Media Producer Tod Regan,
Senior Marketing Manager Maureen McLaughlin, and
Chapter 9: The Energy Crisis introduces the energy Senior Marketing Assistant Nicola Houston. I would
crisis that is driven by population growth, and the also like to thank the many production staff at Pearson
urgent need to avoid damaging climate change. The and elsewhere who helped produce the book, including
chapter identifies energy poverty as a moral and ethical Managing Editor Gina Cheselka, Production Liaison
challenge for a world that wants to cut greenhouse gas Connie Long, International Mapping Project Manager
emissions. Countries such as China and India still lag Kevin Lear, Element Associate Director, Full Service
far behind the developed nations in per capita gross Heidi Allgair, and Photo Researcher Christa Tilley.
domestic product (GDP), and they need to make use of I am grateful to the following reviewers for their
cheap and abundant coal reserves to generate enough feedback during the book development; they were
power to support their economic growth. This chapter immensely helpful in focusing and improving the text:
looks at all the major sources of energy available to
meet this rising demand for energy, and considers how Mark Boardman, Miami University;
different priorities and changing government subsidies Wolfgang H. Berger, University of California: San
could encourage the more rapid development of clean, Diego
renewable energy technologies. Carsten Braun, Westfield State College
Jeffrey Bury, University of California: Santa Cruz
Chapter 10: Turning Knowledge into Action looks
Greg Carbone, University of South Carolina: Columbia
for ways to balance the competing priorities of economic
John Chiang, University of California: Berkeley
growth and emissions reduction in a world where rapid
Dawn Ferris, The Ohio State University
population growth is expected to continue well into this
Tim G. Frazier, University of Idaho
century. The chapter considers whether it is possible to
Ryan Zahn Hinrichs, Drew University
minimize greenhouse gas emissions without harming
Peter Jacques, University of Central Florida
economic development and still prepare the world to
Bruce R. James, University of Maryland
adapt to the inevitable climate change that is already
Jean Lynch-Stieglitz, Georgia Tech
locked into Earth's climate system.
Scott A. Mandia, Suffolk County Community College
Patricia Manley, Middlebury College
There is an immense amount of useful NASA,
Heidi Marcum, Baylor University
NOAA, and USGS original data available to students.
Isabel Montanez, University of California: Davis
Dave Robertson, University of Missouri
Jame Schaeffer, Marquette University
Marshall Shepherd, University of Georgia
Richard Snow, Embry Riddle Aeronautical University
Robert Turner, Skidmore University
Stacey Verardo, George Mason University.
A special thanks to Thompson Webb, Brown Univer-
sity, for his incredibly helpful accuracy reviews.
xx
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Part 1
The evidence: is This
normal?
Chapter 1: So What’S Up With the
Weather?
Chapter 2: the evidence:
obServing climate change
Parts of New Jersey and New York City were devastated in late October
2012 by a 4 meter (13 foot) storm surge that was driven ahead of
Hurricane Sandy. It is not yet clear if climate change will affect the
frequency and intensity of future hurricanes, but increasing global sea
level will enhance the risk of all future storm surges.
earth’s climate is changing.
Climate records are being set across the
world as heat waves, droughts, floods,
snowstorms, tornados, and hurricanes
impact the lives of millions of people. There
are now clear signs of changing climate
on every continent across the globe. As
the human and financial costs of extreme
weather rise we must understand why
global climate is changing and work hard
to mitigate its worst impacts. Geological
evidence has uncovered a record of
continuous and natural climate change, but
the extreme weather we observe today is
different because none of the usual forces
that drive climate change appear to be
responsible. Recent climate change appears
to be the consequence of a precipitous
increase in the emission of heat-trapping
greenhouse gases from deforestation,
industry and agriculture. Levels of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere have risen by
40% since preindustrial times, and are now
higher than at any time during the previous
800,000 years. Computer models project
that a level of emissions this high will
accelerate climate change until we reduce
emissions from all sources. Climate change
is a global problem that requires a global
solution. Chapter 1 introduces important
concepts about weather, climate, and
climate change and Chapter 2 presents
physical evidence that regional climate is
changing rapidly across the globe.
Hurricane Katrina was a powerful Category Five
hurricane with winds of 160 mph. Each year
hurricanes transfer enormous amount of energy
from the tropics to higher latitudes, helping
regulate Earth’s climate. There may be a link
between the intensity of hurricanes and higher
ocean temperatures, driven in large part by
climate change and global warming.
“So, What’s Up
with the Weather?”
Introduction
Chapter
1
Almost every day, some claim or counterclaim about climate change and global
warming hits the headlines. For most of us this is very confusing. Some people consider
every storm, drought, heat wave, and record temperature further evidence for global
warming; others dismiss these same events as natural climate variation. Isn’t everyone
looking at the same data? How can the same facts be interpreted in such different ways?
When the interpretation of scientific data makes it imperative that we change
the ways we create and use energy, the origin of these data becomes controversial
and politically-charged. Before we undertake any action that will have a long-term
impact on society, we need to understand how and why global climate changes. The
geological record shows us that climate change is a normal part of Earth’s history,
and while most scientists conclude that recent changes in global temperature and
climate are due to the emission of human-made (anthropogenic) heat-trapping
greenhouse gases, a small but vocal minority disagrees. In order to project the
future impact of anthropogenic emissions accurately, we must understand the
different factors that have driven climate in the past and how small changes in global
temperature will affect Earth’s climate today.
3
4 Global Climate ChanGe
(a)
Is the Climate
Changing?
Anomaly (˚C) relative to 1901–2000 average
0.8
Over the past 100 years, global Jan–Dec global mean temperature over land and water
0.6
temperature has been rising
0.4
at a rate that is slow in terms
0.2
of a human lifespan but rapid
enough to worry climate sci- 0.0
entists (Figure 1.1b). Climate -0.2
varies naturallyÐ within limits. -0.4
Occasional extreme weather -0.6
events and temperature -0.8
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
records do not prove that Year
(b)
climate is changing, but scien-
tists have discovered that the Increase in mean
Probability of occurrence
More
te
weather
and Figure 1.1b). (Chapters 2 and 7 will investigate this
iou
cli
w
v
Ne
More
is changing, but we need to find out why and what is Less record hot
cold weather
likely to happen in the future. weather
(Figure 1.2). During that time, shifts in the regional harvests in Europe led to the expansion of commerce
pattern of climate still occurred over many parts of the and trade. The records show that this period of pros-
world, such as in Africa, Europe, and North America, perity came to end during the 17th and 18th centuries
and some of these shifts had profound impacts on when the climate started to cool, with the devastating
human settlement. Looking back over the past 5,000 human consequences of war, famine, and disease.
years, we see that modern civilizations have generally There are now many different published reconstruc-
grown and prospered under conditions well suited to tions of global temperature that include this period
agriculture, the generation of excess economic capacity, of time (Figure 1.3). These data, predominantly from
and the growth of commerce and trade, but the threat measurements on land in the Northern Hemisphere,
of climate change was always present. The record is confirm the existence of a warmer period around 1,000
full of examples of human settlements that were dev- years ago known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly
astated by water shortages, famine, and disease. (MCA) and a period of distinct regional cooling that
started around 400 years ago known as the Little Ice
CHeCkPOINT 1.2 ▸ Explain how we know that global
Age (LIA). This is a clear record of natural variation in
climate has been relatively stable over the past 8,000 years.
climate that is not the result of human activity. Even
so, the implications are disturbing: If small natural
Historical Climate Change changes in global temperature have such a large impact
The recent history of climate change is well docu- on society, what can we expect to happen as a con-
mented by historical records. A period of warming in sequence of a larger increase in global temperature
parts of the Northern Hemisphere during the 10th to projected by the end of the 21st century?
12th centuries led to prosperity, population growth, CHeCkPOINT 1.3 ▸ Why is the historical record of cli-
and the expansion of settlement. The Vikings arrived mate change alarming to some scientists?
in Greenland and North America at this time, and good
The Hockey Stick One of the most convincing recon-
structions of historical climate change came in a
groundbreaking paper published in 1998 (Figure 1.4).
This paper by climate scientist Michael Mann and
colleagues analyzed proxy data from a number
of sources in both hemispheres. When plotted on
a simple graph, the spatial pattern of these data
resembled a hockey stick, with a long shaft reflect-
ing prolonged and gradual global cooling over the
past 1,000 years and a pronounced upturned face
created by rapid warming in the 20th century. This
hockey stick graph was controversial when it was
first published, because it suggested that the MCA
(a)
and LIA were transient, hemispheric, or regional
2.0
phenomena and supported the growing hypothesis
Temperature anomaly (˚C)
1.1
Thousands of years before present
(b) pause FOr... Why is a rise in global
thOught temperature of just 1°C
▲ Figure 1.2: (a) The recent and rapid melting of Arctic Sea so important?
ice marks the end of a prolonged period of global cooling It may help to think of this in terms of your own body
that lasted for thousands of years. In this enhanced satellite temperature. Similarly to Earth, you gain energy from
photograph, widespread seasonal (winter) ice is shown in light
your internal system and surroundings, and you lose
gray and thicker multiyear ice in white. (b) Temperature change
since the end of the last glaciation compared to the mid-20th energy from the surface of your skin. You remain healthy
century average temperature. Note how temperature over the as long as you maintain an average core temperature very
last 8,000 years has trended towards lower global temperatures. close to 37°C (98.6°F). What would happen to you if your
This analysis is the average of eight studies using different temperature increased or decreased by just 5°C (9°F)?
methods that determine air temperature.
6 Global Climate ChanGe
0.3
0
0.8
Anomaly (˚C) relative to 1901–2000
Jan–Dec global mean temperature over land and water
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
(a) Year
3
Radiative forcing
2
LLGHG
Forcing (W m-2)
1 Ozone (troposphere)
Ozone (stratosphere)
Aerosol direct
0 Cloud albedo
Volcanic eruptions
-1 Solar
Land use
LLGHG, ozone, aerosols, and land use
-2
-3
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
(b) Year
▲ Figure 1.5: Global Temperature and Radiative Forcing (natural and human factors that affect
the flux of energy at the top of the atmosphere and act to change global climate) (a) The average
temperature measured each year from 1880 compared to the average annual temperatures
from 1901 to 2000 (this is known as the temperature anomaly). The vertical gray bars indicate
the range of uncertainty for each data point. (b) The impact on radiative forcing (and thus global
warming and cooling) of different parameters that affect the intensity of solar radiation and the
influence of greenhouse gases (Huber and Knutti, 2011). Compare the impact of carbon dioxide
to the other parameters recorded, and note the strong cooling affect of volcanic activity during
the Little Ice Age in the mid–19th century.
1659. Reliable regional data only began to be recorded put atmospheric temperatures at their highest point in
in the 1850s, with the development of modern trade and 1 million years, but we are now facing a very real pos-
a little help from the British Empire. Truly global infor- sibility that global temperature could rise by as much as
mation became available only after the 1970s, with the 4°C (7.2°F) by the end of the 21st century. A temperature
launch of the first of a number of weather satellites. increase of this magnitude would have a devastating
impact on global ecosystems and on human society.
recent Observations on land Recent data records
show that global atmospheric temperature over land recent Observations in the Oceans The world's
and oceans has risen by as much as 0.6°C (1.08°F) on oceans have absorbed as much as 90% of the excess
average over the past 100 years (Figure 1.5a). In 2005, heat produced by recent global warming, and a clear
average land surface temperatures 1 exceeded 1°C warming trend has been identified over the upper 700
(1.8°F) above the 1901±2000 annual average, a general meters (~3,000 feet). The average water temperature is
baseline that many climate scientists have adopted. now over 0.49°C above the 20th-century average. This
This may not sound like much of a change, but this may not sound like much of a change, but the oceans
global figure is amplified within Earth's climate system are a huge reservoir of heat, and if all this additional
and translated regionally into much larger changes in energy were suddenly released into the atmosphere,
temperature. To put this in perspective, a further rise it would be enough to increase air temperature by a
in land±ocean air temperature of just 1°C (1.8°F) would much as 22˚C (40˚F) (Figure 1.6).
Build-up in earth’s total heat content smooths out the impact of short-term natural cycles and
200 highlights the underlying trend in global temperature.
Variation in Heat Content since 1950 (1021 Joules)
a Century of Warming
Estimates of global atmospheric temperature over land a Human element emerges Global warming
and ocean from 1880 to the present show significant re-emerged after 1975, and for the first time, climate
variation from year to year due to the impact of short- models were not able to reproduce these changes in
term solar, volcanic, atmospheric, and oceanic events temperature by using only natural factors. A signifi-
(see Figure 1.5a). The temperature curve has a more cant contribution from heat-trapping greenhouse gas
even profile when averaged over five years because this emissions was required to match the output of their
Chapter 1 “So, What’s Up with the Weather?” 9
Europe
4 2 3
3 1 2
2 0 1
1 0
1900 1950 2000 2050
0
1900 1950 2000 2050
1900 1950 2000 2050
South America
Temperature anomaly (˚C)
3
Africa Australia
Temperature anomaly (˚C)
models with observations. This was the first real CHeCkPOINT 1.9 ▸ What are some of the tools that cli-
evidence that the burning of fossil fuels was having a mate scientists use to understand ancient climate change?
real impact on climate change (Figure 1.7).
Subsequent observations, compiled from ground
stations, weather balloons, and weather satellites, The Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3
confirm that Earth is warming over most of its surface, (HadCM3) climate model shows that the Northern
but warming is uneven. Compared to the average tem- Hemisphere experienced the greatest amount of
perature from 1901±2000, surface temperature over the warming between 1995±2004 (but note the Antarctic
land is increasing much faster than over the oceans Peninsula on Figure 1.8a), and projects a further rise
(0.85°C vs. 0.37°C) and while much of the Northern in temperature in excess of 5°C±6°C (9.0°±10.8°F) over
Hemisphere at high latitudes is getting warmer (the high northern latitudes between 2070±2100 if heat-
Arctic is warming at twice the global average rate), trapping greenhouse gas emissions are not curtailed
parts of Antarctica may be getting colder. (Figure 1.9).
10 Global Climate ChanGe
1.2
Zonal mean
1.3
who had evolved in much warmer southern climates
pause FOr... Why do you think that the
topic of climate change has were able to displace Homo neanderthalensis, a human
thOught species much better adapted to cold climates. What
become so controversial?
changes in human evolution might occur over the next
Is climate change the only controversial area of science? 100,000 years if the world continues to warm?
Can you think of any common factors that link climate
change with other areas of scientific controversy?
The long history of global cooling that spans the
time between the hothouse of the Cretaceous and the
lessons from the deep Past icehouse of today is recorded in the concentration of
The geological record shows that climate change is a Oxygen 18 (18O), a heavy isotope of oxygen found in
natural part of Earth's history. During the Cretaceous the shells of marine organisms (Figure 1.12). These data
Period, over 65 million years ago, fossil, isotope and indicate that ocean temperatures declined steadily from
geochemical evidence suggests that global temperatures a maximum during the Eocene Epoch to a low point
were well above current norms. This was a hothouse during the Pleistocene Epoch, with notable periods of
world where vast forests extended toward an ice-free very rapidly declining temperature during the Eocene
pole in Antarctica, the dinosaurs were at the pinnacle of Epoch and late Miocene Epoch. We will look again at
their success, and the first flowering trees, plants, and the geological history of climate change in Chapters
early grasses were starting to appear (Figure 1.10). 5 and 6 and consider what this can tell us about how
The icehouse world we live in today began around Earth's climate is likely to change in the future.
2.5 million years ago in the Northern Hemisphere, and CHeCkPOINT 1.13 ▸ According to oxygen isotope
as much as 30 million years ago in Antarctica. Unique data, what happened to global temperature between the
rock formations and layers of glacial sediment show us Eocene and Pleistocene Epochs?
that ice sheets have advanced from the Arctic to reach
as far south as New York and the south of Ireland in
the recent geological past (Figure 1.11). The periodic major Factors that affect
advance and retreat of these ice sheets has affected the
course of human evolution, and the entire history of
Climate Change
human civilization has occurred within a geologically Many natural factors contribute to climate change
brief period of time during the most recent interglacial and are capable of producing rapid changes in global
stage when the ice sheets retreated to higher latitudes. temperature. The overall process is complex and
This icehouse world is our home, and in the absence of is explored in more detail in Chapters 5 and 6. Even
human activity to upset the balance of global climate, as global temperatures increase over the next few
we will stay this way for a long time to come. decades, certain regions may experience short-term
cooling as the pattern of circulation in the oceans and
CHeCkPOINT 1.12 ▸ How do we know that the poles atmosphere changes. The following section introduces
were warmer during the Cretaceous Period and that ice some of these factors and considers their impact on
has periodically covered New York since the start of the recent climate change. We will come back to look at
Pleistocene Epoch 2.5 million years ago? them again in much more detail in Chapters 3 and 4.
11
12 Global Climate ChanGe
60°
ATL ANTIC
30° 30°
Tropic of Cancer OCEAN PAC IFIC
OC EA N
PACIFIC
PAC IFIC
Equator
a
0° 0°
OCE AN
N INDIAN
IND
D IAN
OCEAN
OCE
C
Tropic of Capricorn
rn
30° 30°
ATLL ANTIC
AN
0 1,500 3,000
0 Miles
Ice sheet or glacier OCEA N
0 1,500
50 3,000 Kilometers
lo
60° 60°
ctic Circle
Antarctic
(a)
ARCTIC OCEAN
0 400 800 Kilometers
ARCTIC
60°
OCEAN 30°W N
°N
60
ATLANTIC
150°W
OCEAN
50°W
140°W
50
°N
0 400 Miles
PACIFIC
0 400 Kilometers
OCEAN
40° 60°W
N 40°N
40°N
130°W ATLANTIC
OCEAN
70°W
(b) (c)
▲ Figure 1.11: Ocean temperatures declined steadily from a maximum during the Eocene Epoch
to a low point (a) during the Pleistocene Epoch (approximately 26,000 to 19,000 years ago) when
ice sheets (b) advanced as far south as New York and (c) almost as far as London.
I see increasing reason to believe that the view formed some time
back as to the origin of the Makonde bush is the correct one. I have
no doubt that it is not a natural product, but the result of human
occupation. Those parts of the high country where man—as a very
slight amount of practice enables the eye to perceive at once—has not
yet penetrated with axe and hoe, are still occupied by a splendid
timber forest quite able to sustain a comparison with our mixed
forests in Germany. But wherever man has once built his hut or tilled
his field, this horrible bush springs up. Every phase of this process
may be seen in the course of a couple of hours’ walk along the main
road. From the bush to right or left, one hears the sound of the axe—
not from one spot only, but from several directions at once. A few
steps further on, we can see what is taking place. The brush has been
cut down and piled up in heaps to the height of a yard or more,
between which the trunks of the large trees stand up like the last
pillars of a magnificent ruined building. These, too, present a
melancholy spectacle: the destructive Makonde have ringed them—
cut a broad strip of bark all round to ensure their dying off—and also
piled up pyramids of brush round them. Father and son, mother and
son-in-law, are chopping away perseveringly in the background—too
busy, almost, to look round at the white stranger, who usually excites
so much interest. If you pass by the same place a week later, the piles
of brushwood have disappeared and a thick layer of ashes has taken
the place of the green forest. The large trees stretch their
smouldering trunks and branches in dumb accusation to heaven—if
they have not already fallen and been more or less reduced to ashes,
perhaps only showing as a white stripe on the dark ground.
This work of destruction is carried out by the Makonde alike on the
virgin forest and on the bush which has sprung up on sites already
cultivated and deserted. In the second case they are saved the trouble
of burning the large trees, these being entirely absent in the
secondary bush.
After burning this piece of forest ground and loosening it with the
hoe, the native sows his corn and plants his vegetables. All over the
country, he goes in for bed-culture, which requires, and, in fact,
receives, the most careful attention. Weeds are nowhere tolerated in
the south of German East Africa. The crops may fail on the plains,
where droughts are frequent, but never on the plateau with its
abundant rains and heavy dews. Its fortunate inhabitants even have
the satisfaction of seeing the proud Wayao and Wamakua working
for them as labourers, driven by hunger to serve where they were
accustomed to rule.
But the light, sandy soil is soon exhausted, and would yield no
harvest the second year if cultivated twice running. This fact has
been familiar to the native for ages; consequently he provides in
time, and, while his crop is growing, prepares the next plot with axe
and firebrand. Next year he plants this with his various crops and
lets the first piece lie fallow. For a short time it remains waste and
desolate; then nature steps in to repair the destruction wrought by
man; a thousand new growths spring out of the exhausted soil, and
even the old stumps put forth fresh shoots. Next year the new growth
is up to one’s knees, and in a few years more it is that terrible,
impenetrable bush, which maintains its position till the black
occupier of the land has made the round of all the available sites and
come back to his starting point.
The Makonde are, body and soul, so to speak, one with this bush.
According to my Yao informants, indeed, their name means nothing
else but “bush people.” Their own tradition says that they have been
settled up here for a very long time, but to my surprise they laid great
stress on an original immigration. Their old homes were in the
south-east, near Mikindani and the mouth of the Rovuma, whence
their peaceful forefathers were driven by the continual raids of the
Sakalavas from Madagascar and the warlike Shirazis[47] of the coast,
to take refuge on the almost inaccessible plateau. I have studied
African ethnology for twenty years, but the fact that changes of
population in this apparently quiet and peaceable corner of the earth
could have been occasioned by outside enterprises taking place on
the high seas, was completely new to me. It is, no doubt, however,
correct.
The charming tribal legend of the Makonde—besides informing us
of other interesting matters—explains why they have to live in the
thickest of the bush and a long way from the edge of the plateau,
instead of making their permanent homes beside the purling brooks
and springs of the low country.
“The place where the tribe originated is Mahuta, on the southern
side of the plateau towards the Rovuma, where of old time there was
nothing but thick bush. Out of this bush came a man who never
washed himself or shaved his head, and who ate and drank but little.
He went out and made a human figure from the wood of a tree
growing in the open country, which he took home to his abode in the
bush and there set it upright. In the night this image came to life and
was a woman. The man and woman went down together to the
Rovuma to wash themselves. Here the woman gave birth to a still-
born child. They left that place and passed over the high land into the
valley of the Mbemkuru, where the woman had another child, which
was also born dead. Then they returned to the high bush country of
Mahuta, where the third child was born, which lived and grew up. In
course of time, the couple had many more children, and called
themselves Wamatanda. These were the ancestral stock of the
Makonde, also called Wamakonde,[48] i.e., aborigines. Their
forefather, the man from the bush, gave his children the command to
bury their dead upright, in memory of the mother of their race who
was cut out of wood and awoke to life when standing upright. He also
warned them against settling in the valleys and near large streams,
for sickness and death dwelt there. They were to make it a rule to
have their huts at least an hour’s walk from the nearest watering-
place; then their children would thrive and escape illness.”
The explanation of the name Makonde given by my informants is
somewhat different from that contained in the above legend, which I
extract from a little book (small, but packed with information), by
Pater Adams, entitled Lindi und sein Hinterland. Otherwise, my
results agree exactly with the statements of the legend. Washing?
Hapana—there is no such thing. Why should they do so? As it is, the
supply of water scarcely suffices for cooking and drinking; other
people do not wash, so why should the Makonde distinguish himself
by such needless eccentricity? As for shaving the head, the short,
woolly crop scarcely needs it,[49] so the second ancestral precept is
likewise easy enough to follow. Beyond this, however, there is
nothing ridiculous in the ancestor’s advice. I have obtained from
various local artists a fairly large number of figures carved in wood,
ranging from fifteen to twenty-three inches in height, and
representing women belonging to the great group of the Mavia,
Makonde, and Matambwe tribes. The carving is remarkably well
done and renders the female type with great accuracy, especially the
keloid ornamentation, to be described later on. As to the object and
meaning of their works the sculptors either could or (more probably)
would tell me nothing, and I was forced to content myself with the
scanty information vouchsafed by one man, who said that the figures
were merely intended to represent the nembo—the artificial
deformations of pelele, ear-discs, and keloids. The legend recorded
by Pater Adams places these figures in a new light. They must surely
be more than mere dolls; and we may even venture to assume that
they are—though the majority of present-day Makonde are probably
unaware of the fact—representations of the tribal ancestress.
The references in the legend to the descent from Mahuta to the
Rovuma, and to a journey across the highlands into the Mbekuru
valley, undoubtedly indicate the previous history of the tribe, the
travels of the ancestral pair typifying the migrations of their
descendants. The descent to the neighbouring Rovuma valley, with
its extraordinary fertility and great abundance of game, is intelligible
at a glance—but the crossing of the Lukuledi depression, the ascent
to the Rondo Plateau and the descent to the Mbemkuru, also lie
within the bounds of probability, for all these districts have exactly
the same character as the extreme south. Now, however, comes a
point of especial interest for our bacteriological age. The primitive
Makonde did not enjoy their lives in the marshy river-valleys.
Disease raged among them, and many died. It was only after they
had returned to their original home near Mahuta, that the health
conditions of these people improved. We are very apt to think of the
African as a stupid person whose ignorance of nature is only equalled
by his fear of it, and who looks on all mishaps as caused by evil
spirits and malignant natural powers. It is much more correct to
assume in this case that the people very early learnt to distinguish
districts infested with malaria from those where it is absent.
This knowledge is crystallized in the
ancestral warning against settling in the
valleys and near the great waters, the
dwelling-places of disease and death. At the
same time, for security against the hostile
Mavia south of the Rovuma, it was enacted
that every settlement must be not less than a
certain distance from the southern edge of the
plateau. Such in fact is their mode of life at the
present day. It is not such a bad one, and
certainly they are both safer and more
comfortable than the Makua, the recent
intruders from the south, who have made USUAL METHOD OF
good their footing on the western edge of the CLOSING HUT-DOOR
plateau, extending over a fairly wide belt of
country. Neither Makua nor Makonde show in their dwellings
anything of the size and comeliness of the Yao houses in the plain,
especially at Masasi, Chingulungulu and Zuza’s. Jumbe Chauro, a
Makonde hamlet not far from Newala, on the road to Mahuta, is the
most important settlement of the tribe I have yet seen, and has fairly
spacious huts. But how slovenly is their construction compared with
the palatial residences of the elephant-hunters living in the plain.
The roofs are still more untidy than in the general run of huts during
the dry season, the walls show here and there the scanty beginnings
or the lamentable remains of the mud plastering, and the interior is a
veritable dog-kennel; dirt, dust and disorder everywhere. A few huts
only show any attempt at division into rooms, and this consists
merely of very roughly-made bamboo partitions. In one point alone
have I noticed any indication of progress—in the method of fastening
the door. Houses all over the south are secured in a simple but
ingenious manner. The door consists of a set of stout pieces of wood
or bamboo, tied with bark-string to two cross-pieces, and moving in
two grooves round one of the door-posts, so as to open inwards. If
the owner wishes to leave home, he takes two logs as thick as a man’s
upper arm and about a yard long. One of these is placed obliquely
against the middle of the door from the inside, so as to form an angle
of from 60° to 75° with the ground. He then places the second piece
horizontally across the first, pressing it downward with all his might.
It is kept in place by two strong posts planted in the ground a few
inches inside the door. This fastening is absolutely safe, but of course
cannot be applied to both doors at once, otherwise how could the
owner leave or enter his house? I have not yet succeeded in finding
out how the back door is fastened.