ANN ̶ Based Model for Prediction Electricity from
Wind Energy
Nurshahanim binti Mohd Shukri
Faculty of Electrical and Electronics Engineering
Universiti Tun Hussein Onn, Malaysia
Parit Raja, Batu Pahat, Johor, Malaysia
shahanimshukri@gmail.com
Abstract—This paper has proposed the prediction of power
2021 IEEE 11th IEEE Symposium on Computer Applications & Industrial Electronics (ISCAIE) | 978-1-6654-0338-2/21/$31.00 ©2021 IEEE | DOI: 10.1109/ISCAIE51753.2021.9431825
output from wind energy using Artificial Neural Network
(ANN). Renewable energy such as solar and wind power, has
become a national strategy for many countries by reducing
fossil-fuel-based energy and increasing renewable energy
sources’ integration. A growing demand for wind as renewable
energy sources has given rise to attention in economic and
technological concerns relevant to integrating power grids.
Nevertheless, throughout Malaysia, wind speed varies
according to region and month because it does not blow evenly
and uniformly. The main data that have been used in the
analysis of wind energy prediction is wind speed. The area
covered for the project’s testing is in Parit Raja, Batu Pahat,
Johor, Malaysia, from 2018 to 2020. The wind speed prediction
and power production in the future for 2021 are also have
described in detail. The results have shown the highest total
output power in 2019 is 19.867 kW, following by 17.556 kW in
2020 and 15.905 kW in 2018. Furthermore, the total output
power prediction through the year of 2021 is 15.603 kW. It can
conclude that power output from wind energy can be predicted
using the ANN technique.
Keywords—Artificial Neural Network (ANN), wind energy,
power output
I. INTRODUCTION
In the area of globalization, the wind industry worldwide
is growing increasingly, and the turbines’ scale has doubled
every three or four years. For energy planners and wind farm
owners, forecasting wind energy production may be
beneficial. Besides, for any regional inventory of wind
energy studies, wind power forecasting is also needed in
advance. In this context, the implementation of a wind-speed
correlation model in the region is a great significance and
plays a major role in the management of wind energy
resources for power generation and other fields of research
study related to energy conservation. Therefore, an Artificial
Neural Network (ANN) has been chosen as a method to
predict wind power. ANN gives good results for pattern
recognition and forecasting problems. Consequently,
numerous wind speed and power predictions or forecasts are
established with ANNs approaches [1]. For wind speed
forecasting that focused on the very-short-term forecasting
method, Gao et al. proposed a hybrid model based on chaos
phase space reconstruction and NWP-General regression NN
[2]. Besides, Safavieh et al. employed wavelet-based
networks and particle swarm optimization, obtaining more
accurate results compared with an MLP, but it requires high
computational costs [3]. Kani and Ardehali suggested a
combination of MLP and Markov chains [4].
On the other hand, several types of research work on
short-term wind speed forecasting consider different models,
such as two-layers ANN [5] with various types of time
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Siti Amely binti Jumaat
Green and Sustainable Energy Focus Group
Faculty of Electrical and Electronics Engineering
Universiti Tun Hussein Onn, Malaysia
Parit Raja, Batu Pahat, Johor, Malaysia
amely@uthm.edu.my
horizons with different wind variability cause.
Philippopoulos and Deligiorgi proposed a feed-forward ANN
method for a coastal region with a very complex topography
[6]. Salcedo-Sanz et al. developed an MLP-based method for
predicting wind speed at various points of a wind farm [7].
Wang et al. combined an Elman recurrent ANN with
machine learning techniques for a medium-term wind speed
prediction [8]. At the same time, Zhang et al. employed
ANNs in two different hybrid models that combine empirical
mode decomposition and support vector machine [9]. Meng
et al. showed wind speed forecasting by a hybrid model that
comprises wavelet decomposition and ANN [10]. Besides,
Doucoure et al. employed an adaptive wavelet ANN for a
multi-resolution analysis for predicting wind speed time
series [11]. Ak et al. trained an MLP trained with a multi-
objective genetic algorithm [12], while Li and Shi compared
adaptive linear elements, BPNN, and RBFNN [13]. Liu et al.
proposed a novel multi-stage hybrid approach for high
accuracy predictions based on the secondary decomposition
algorithm and Elman NNs [14].
Furthermore, for long-term wind speed prediction,
Moustris et al. proposed a 24-hours ahead wind speed
prediction with an ANN model analyzed together with the
wind and air pressure historical data [15]. A long-term
prediction model was also developed by Azad et al., using a
feed-forward BPNN for predicting the trend of the incoming
year [16], and Malik proposed a BPNN trained with data
from 22 cities [17]. Finamore et al. presented a method for
the medium-long term prediction based on an MLP and the
spatiotemporal weather evolution [18]. Additional essential
parameters also can be predicted through ANN models.
Ouyang et al. propose a comparison between four data-
mining algorithms applied to control the yaw position of a
WT [19]. The main purpose of this paper are to prevent
overproduction by contemplating energy storage systems or
coordinating the projected production and demand for wind
energy for energy suppliers.
This ANN model is used to predict the power production
coming from wind energy. The project also implements and
develops in Matlab software. Thus, all the values for output
and error of the project will be displayed in the software.The
neural network structure that has been constructed in
MATLAB software for the project with four inputs selection,
ten neuron numbers of hidden layer, and one output layer.
Besides, 70 % training, 15% validation, and 15% testing also
have been set for the ANN model configuration. There are
four input data uses for the project, which are wind speed,
rotor swept area, air density and Betz Limit approximation.
In contrast, there are only one output data which is wind
power.
36
 This research is to develop the ANN model to predict the
power output from the wind energy. The ANN method has
the capability to predict the future system output values and
gives good results for pattern recognition, identification and
classification of wind energy potential in Malaysia. All the
wind energy’s parameters involved are investigated and
trained in MATLAB software.
II. RENEWABLE ENERGY (RE)
The renewable energy utilizes energy sources that are
continually replenished by nature, such as the sun, wind,
hydro water, geothermal, biomass, waves, ocean currents,
temperature differences in the oceans, and the tides’ energy.
The renewable energy technologies convert these fuels into
accessible forms of energy, most commonly electricity, and
generate power, heat, chemicals, or mechanical energy
power by turning them into electricity or motivating power
[20]. The policymaker worried about evolving the national
grid system that would rely on those resources that have been
commercially developed and are cost-effective for on-grid
applications. These commercial developments involve
hydroelectric power, biomass-derived fuels, wind energy,
solar energy, and geothermal energy [20]. Hence, wind
energy will be discussed in more detail in this section.
A. Wind Energy
Figure 1 illustrates the grid-connected system in the wind
generation process. The energy is converted from kinetic to
mechanical. The rotation of the blade caused by the presence
of the wind resulted in pressure that turning the shaft wired
to the gearbox that culminated in power generation by
spinning the blade. The initializing of current happened in
the gearbox, implying the magnetic rotor, resulting in the
production of electromotive forces across the conductor [21].
Therefore, supplying energy in the system.
Fig. 1. Wind generation process.
B. Artificial Neural Network (ANN)
The artificial neural network (ANN), or merely a neural
network, is a machine learning method that develops
gradually from the concept of simulating the human brain.
ANN can be defined as a vast processor that can store
experiential knowledge and make stored knowledge
accessible for use. ANN bears a resemblance to the brain in
two characteristics. The first characteristic is that ANN can
gain knowledge through a learning and training process. The
second characteristics are that knowledge is stored using
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weights [22]. Weights are the connection strengths between
neurons. ANN is beneficial in performing various tasks such
as prediction, pattern classification, and forecasting [23]. The
Neural Network consists of three types of layers, which are
input layer as the initial data for the neural network, the
hidden layer as the intermediate layer between the input and
output layer and place where all the computation is
conducted, and lastly, the output layer as the production of
the result for given inputs [24].
C. Relationship of Wind Speed and Power
Equation (1) is used in calculating the value of power
production in Watts as the actual output or target value for
the proposed ANN model in the MATLAB software. By
mean, a wind power production by a wind turbine can be
expressed through this equation. The equations are shown in
paper [25]:
PW = 1/2ρΑν3 (1)
III. METHODOLOGY
The project achievement method will be divided into
several stages to make the project flow more systematic,
manageable, and easier to troubleshoot to ensure this project
is on track. The main purpose of this session is to clarify the
process of the project using a structure for the Artificial
Neural Network (ANN). This section also discussed the
modelling of ANN for a wind energy prediction.
A. Structure of Artificial Neural Network
Figure 2 shows the neural network structure for this
project with four inputs, ten neuron numbers in the hidden
layer, and one output layer. Other than that, 70% training,
15% validation, and 15% testing also have been set for the
ANN model configuration. There are four input data uses for
the project. That includes wind speed, rotor swept area, air
density, and Betz Limit approximation. Despite having four
inputs data, only power will be the final output data.
Fig. 2. Neural network structure.
The selection of swept rotor area, A of the wind turbine is
one of the progressive aspects of identifying the type that fits
the wind conditions so that wind energy to be transformed
into electrical energy. In the Parit Raja area, with a low wind
speed pattern, that is suitable to choose a small radius of
rotor, r, so that is why diameter rotor, d = 1.0 meter [26] is
the best option to get the swept rotor area, A = 0.785 m2 as
input data.
B. Steps to design ANN model using MATLAB software
• Data collection
Collecting and preparing all the sample data.
 • Pre-processing data minimum and maximum values for wind speed and power
Solve the problem of missing data, normalize data production in those specific months.
and randomize data.
• Building network TABLE I. MONTHLY TOTAL POWER PRODUCTION
It specifies the number of hidden layers, neuron and 2018 2019 2020 2021
transfer function in each layer, weight/bias learning Jan. 992.563 3076.222 2552.114 1917.271
function, and performance function.
Feb. 2361.685 2605.688 3498.866 2573.830
• Training network Mar. 2381.485 1839.605 2149.160 1950.253
Adjust the weight to ensure the actual output is close
Apr. 1740.693 1506.534 1703.144 1469.229
to the target output.
May 1131.987 1197.929 841.610 858.017
• Testing network
June 1009.655 718.192 720.259 732.481
Evaluate the performance of the developed model.
July 835.3621 1135.382 706.805 828.188
Aug. 1084.094 1473.831 1045.555 1107.929
Sept. 981.097 925.698 1073.437 878.525
C. Work Flow Diagram
Oct. 1322.132 1636.123 974.817 1029.039
Figure 3 shows the flowchart of the complete process of
project. The process is start with collect the input data, apply Nov. 863.151 1522.056 840.599 864.679
equation, develop an ANN model, configure, train and Dec. 1201.568 2230.124 1450.112 1393.411
testing the model and lastly collect the output data. Total
15.905 19.867 17.556 15.603
[kW]

A. Performance of ANN for 2018 to 2020

Figure 4 shows the graph for a monthly average wind
speed and average power production from 2018 to 2020.
There are two graphs in the chart. On the left side of the y-
axis indicates the value for average speed shown in the bar
chart. However, the line graph represents the average power
value on the right side of the right y-axis. There was an
enormous growth in wind speed and power production
between January and February for 2018, 2019, and 2020.

Fig. 4. Monthly average speed versus total power at Parit Raja from 2018
to 2020.

Fig. 3. Flowchart of the overall the process project.
IV. RESULTS ANALYSIS
Table I tabulates the total amount of power production
that has been predicted by using ANN for three years. The
year of 2019 shows the highest total output power, which is
19.867 kW, following by 17.556 kW in 2020 and 15.905 kW
in 2018. Furthermore, the total output power through the year
of 2021 is 15.603 kW. Malaysia faces the Southwest
monsoon and the Northeast monsoon wind seasons every
year. It is proven that these monsoons give effect to the
On the contrary, the lowest average wind speed and
power production are between June and July. The particular
reason for this circumstance is that Malaysia faces the
Northeast monsoon and the Southwest monsoon wind
seasons from that time. The minimum average output power
values for three years are 27.844 Watt in July 2018, 23.940
Watt in June 2019, and 23.234 Watt in July 2020,
respectively. On the other side, the maximum average output
power values for three years are 84.346 Watt in February
2018, 99.233 Watt in January 2019, and 120.651 Watt in
February 2020, respectively.

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 The value of coefficient correlation, R-value, represents
the relationship between the network output and network
target. This ANN model was stopped training when it
reaches a maximum validation check. As shown in Figures 5
to 7, plot regression of ANN configuration for 2018, 2019,
and 2020 have approximately R = 1 for training, validation,
and testing stages. The best R-value was equal to 1, while
the best MSE value was equal to 0. The aspect that should
be considered is that the MSE value of testing data must be
larger than the MSE value for training data. In this case, all
of the three years get MSE = 0.
Fig. 5. Plot regression of ANN configuration for 2018.
Fig. 6. Plot regression of ANN configuration for 2019.
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Fig. 7. Plot regression of ANN configuration for 2020.
B. Future Generation of 2021
Figure 8 shows the graph for a monthly average wind
speed on the left y-axis in the bar chart and average power
production on the right y-axis in the line graph for 2021. The
highest numbers of average wind speed and average power
production are in February, while the lowest numbers are
recorded in June. From that time, Malaysia faces the
Northeast monsoon and the Southwest monsoon wind
seasons. This actively demonstrates that the minimum values
of average wind speed and average output power are in June,
which are 3.651 m/s and 24.416 Watt, respectively.
Moreover, the maximum average wind speed and average
output power values are in February, which are 5.678 m/s
and 91.923 Watt, respectively.
Fig. 8. Monthly average speed versus total power at Parit Raja from 2021.
Figure 9 shows the graph of bar charts for a comparison
of monthly total power production between manual
calculation and ANN power outputs for 2021. The chart
shows unit Watt. The chart demonstrates that the value from
ANN power output are slightly difference with the value of
power output by manual calculation. The values from both
methods are almost the same. This trend supports the finding
of the project and the theory of the significance of the study.
 For example, the value for power predicted in 2021 that will
be generated which is 15.603kW are sufficient enough.
Fig. 9. Comparison of monthly total power production between manual
calculation versus ANN power outputs for 2021.
Figure 10 shows the best curve fit for the ANN
configuration of Parit Raja that represented the performance
of the ANN model to predict the power production in 2021.
The ANN model has successfully predicted the power
production with the best fit of plot regression, R, which is R-
value, was approached to 1. The best performance for the
values of MSE training, testing, and validation of this model
was approximately equal to 0. The data of the model could
learn network very well during training, which shows that
the MSE training was lowest compared with MSE testing,
and it proves that the ANN model performed very well
during training.
Fig. 10. Plot regression of ANN configuration for 2021.
C. Conclusion and Future Work
The changing of the wind speed for every month is based
on monsoon winds seasons in Malaysia. Southwest monsoon
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is from May to October, and Northeast monsoon or rainy
season is between mid-October and the end of March. To
sum up everything that has been stated so far, it can be
concluded from the result obtained that the power production
from wind energy can be predicted for every year, including
the future ahead using ANN.
For future work, the development of a novel hybrid wind
speed double prediction system can be made. Such as using
the method that based on Autoregressive Integrated Moving
Average (ARIMA) model and Artificial Neural Network
(ANN) model. By analyzing the predicted results, it is easy
to conclude which method has a better final forecasting
result and prediction effect, enabling further improvement of
prediction accuracy.
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