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Westlife Foodworld – BUY

Earnings downgrade

1 February 2024

External issues hamper performance Result update


CMP Rs838 Price performance (%)
Westlife Foodworld reported a weak 3QFY24 performance,
impacted by external events which resulted in same store sales 12-mth TP (Rs) 950 (13%) 1M 3M 1Y
(SSS) decline of 9% during the quarter (3% decline adjusted for Market cap (US$m) 1,571 Absolute (Rs) 2.6 5.6 14.4
external events). Management has taken measures to address Absolute (US$) 2.8 5.9 12.8
Enterprise value(US$m) 1,579
the external issues and is hopeful of a recovery in FY25. We Rel.to Smallcap (4.6) (18.3) (47.7)
downgrade our adj Ebitda estimates by 5-12% to factor in the Bloomberg WESTLIFE IN
Cagr (%) 3 yrs 5 yrs
3Q performance and a more gradual recovery going ahead. Sector QSR EPS (Rs) 128.7 79.8
Maintain BUY with a TP of Rs950.
Shareholding pattern (%) Stock performance
Below estimates: Westlife Foodworld reported 3QFY24 results which Promoter 57.0 Vol('000, LHS) Price (Rs., RHS)
were below our estimates. Sales declined by 2% (7% below IIFLe) while Pledged (% of promoter shares) 0.0 2,500 1,500
pre IND AS Ebitda declined by 19% (17% below IIFLe). Same store FII 9.9 2,000
sales declined by 9% during the quarter with outside events such as DII 22.8 1,500
1,000
Chennai floods and certain geo-political events significantly impacting 1,000
52Wk High/Low (Rs) 989/645
performance of some specific stores – these stores witnessed 10-50% 500
500
Shares o/s (m) 156
decline in daily sales from mid October onwards, leading to contrasting 0 0
SSS growth trends. Daily volume (US$ m) 1.1

Jul-22

Jul-23

Nov-23
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Sep-23
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Jan-22

Jan-23

Jan-24
Dividend yield FY25ii (%) 0.3
Hopeful of recovery in FY25: Demand weakness in the cohort of Free float (%) 43.0
stores which are not impacted majorly by the external events seems to Financial summary (Rs m)
have bottomed out. The company has initiated various measures to Y/e 31 Mar, Consolidated FY22A FY23A FY24ii FY25ii FY26ii
highlight that McDonald’s India is a truly Indian company with a diverse Revenues (Rs m) 15,760 22,775 24,017 27,601 31,431
employee base encompassing different communities. With these Ebitda margins (%) 12.0 16.4 15.6 16.8 17.6
measures, management is hopeful of overall recovery from start of FY25 Pre-exceptional PAT (Rs m) (21) 1,110 781 1,395 1,966
onwards and soon, getting back to its aspiration of high single digit SSS Reported PAT (Rs m) (21) 1,110 781 1,395 1,966
growth Pre-exceptional EPS (Rs) (0.1) 7.1 5.0 9.0 12.6
Growth (%) NM NM -29.6 78.7 40.9
Adj Ebitda downgrade of 12%/7%/5%: Adjusted for the stores IIFL vs consensus (%) (34.2) (19.3) (14.6)
impacted by the external events, management estimates a decline of PER (x) NM 117.6 167.1 93.5 66.4
3% in same store sales, which is not very different vs. other QSR ROE (%) NM 21.6 13.5 21.7 25.6
players. We factor in the 3Q performance and a gradual recovery in SSS Net debt/equity (x) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
trends, resulting in a 12%/7%/5% downgrade in our adj Ebitda EV/Ebitda (x) 69.3 35.1 35.0 28.5 23.7
estimates for FY24/25/26. Management is confident of meeting its store Price/book (x) 28.3 23.1 22.1 18.8 15.5
addition guidance of 40-45 stores in FY24 (23 YTD) and 45-50 store 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
OCF/Ebitda (x)
additions in FY25. Maintain BUY rating with a target price of Rs950. Source: Company, IIFL Research. Priced as on 31 January 2024

Percy Panthaki | percy.panthaki@iiflcap.com Sameer Gupta | sameer.gupta@iiflcap.com Harsh V Shah | harshv.shah@iiflcap.com


91 22 4646 4662 91 22 4646 4672 91 22 4646 4788
Westlife Foodworld – BUY

Reported (Rs m) 3QFY23 3QFY24 % YoY


Sales declined by 1.8% YoY (7.4% below our estimate). SSS growth was
Net Sales 6,115 6,003 -1.8% -9% vs our estimate of +1%
Expenses (5,093) (5,082) -0.2%
EBITDA 1,022 920 -10.0%
EBITDA Margin (%) 16.7 15.3 -138bps Reported Ebitda declined by 10% YoY (14% below our estimate). Ebitda
margin at 15.3% vs. our estimate of 16.5%. Pre-Ind as Ebitda margin at
Depreciation (386) (455) 18.0% 10.7% missed our estimates by 130bps
Interest (234) (281) 20.3%
Other Income 78 47 -39.3%
PBT 480 231 -51.9%
Provision for Tax (116) (59) -49.7%
PAT declined by 52.6% YoY driven by negative leverage from
-Tax Rate (%) 24.2 25.3 109bps depreciation and interest costs
Reported Profit 364 172 -52.6%

(Rs m) 3QFY23 3QFY24 % YoY


Raw Material consumption 1,824 1,784 -2.2% Gross margins remained stable YoY and slightly missed our estimates

As a % of sales 29.8 29.7 -12bps


Employees cost (corporate) 290 270 -7.1%
As a % of sales 4.7 4.5 -25bps
Employees cost (store level) 547 552 1.0%
As a % of sales 8.9 9.2 26bps
Royalty 280 243 -13.3%
As a % of sales 4.6 4.0 -54bps
Occupancy and other operating expenses increased 1% and 92% YoY
Occupancy and other op exp 2,087 2,112 1.2%
As a % of sales 34.1 35.2 105bps
General and admin expenses 64 122 91.5%
As a % of sales 1.0 2.0 99bps
Source: Company, IIFL Research

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Westlife Foodworld – BUY

Conference call take-aways


Figure 2: WLDL added 11 stores on a gross basis in 3Q
• Same store sales declined by 9% YoY with 10-50% decline witnessed
in daily sales of ~30% of stores, from mid-October onwards leading 20 18
to contrasting SSS growth trends. Gross new store additions
• Management gave examples of stores such as Bhendi Bazaar (Mumbai 15
Central) where daily sales declined by 50-60% in a matter of few 12
11
weeks in October month, probably on account of geopolitical events. 9
10
• Westlife has rolled out a campaign to highlight that McDonald’s India 8
is a truly Indian company, employing people from all communities. 6 6
5
4
• Stores in Chennai were disrupted by floods during the quarter. 5
• In addition, the company has strengthened its value for money
offering with extra value meals. 0
• Overall demand weakness seems to have bottomed out and with the 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
initiatives in place to address the external issues, management is FY22 FY23 FY24
hopeful of returning back to growth trajectory in FY25 and a high
single digit SSS growth in due course of time. Source: Company, IIFL Research
• The company reiterated its store addition guidance of 40-45 stores in
FY24 and 45-50 stores in FY25. Figure 3: Adjusted Ebitda margin came at 10.7% - 230bps contraction YoY
• The company has introduced croissant product as a pilot in ten stores. (%) Ebitda margin - adj for IND AS 116 (%)
14 12.9 13.0 12.7
Figure 1: SSS declined by 9% in 3QFY24 12.4 12.1
11.4 11.7
12 10.7
120 SSS growth 9.4
97.1 10
100
8
80
60 6
44.0 40.0
40 4
23.0 20.0 14.0
20 7.0 (9.0) 2
1.0
0 0
3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
(20)
FY22 FY23 FY24 FY22 FY23 FY24
Source: Company, IIFL Research
Source: Company, IIFL Research

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Westlife Foodworld – BUY

Figure 4: Financial summary – adj for IND AS 116


Y/e 31 Mar FY22 FY23 FY24ii FY25ii FY26ii
Revenues (Rs m) 15,760 22,775 24,017 27,601 31,431
EBITDA margins (%) 7.2 12.3 11.3 12.4 13.3
Pre-exceptional PAT (Rs m) 441 1,439 1,213 1,649 2,083
Reported PAT (Rs m) 441 1,439 1,213 1,649 2,083
Pre-exceptional EPS (Rs) 2.8 9.2 7.8 10.6 13.4
Growth (%) NM 226.4 (15.7) 36.0 26.3
PER (x) NM 89.6 106.3 78.2 61.9
ROIC (%) 5.2 21.4 14.6 17.2 19.5
Net debt/equity (x) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 113.9 46.0 47.9 38.0 31.1
Source: Company, IIFL Research

Figure 5: Changes to our estimates


FY24 Old New % change
Sales 24,943 24,017 -3.7%
EBITDA 3,061 2,707 -11.6%
FY25 Old New % change
Sales 28,756 27,601 -4.0%
EBITDA 3,692 3,426 -7.2%
FY26 Old New % change
Sales 32,755 31,431 -4.0%
EBITDA 4,401 4,174 -5.2%
Source: Company, IIFL Research

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Company snapshot Westlife Foodworld – BUY

Background: Westlife Development Limited is an Indian fast food restaurant holding company. Its wholly owned subsidiary Hardcastle Restaurants Pvt.
Ltd. holds the master franchise for McDonald's in western India and South India. HRPL operates more than 300 McDonald’s restaurants across 42 cities in
the states of Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Goa and parts of Madhya Pradesh, and
provides direct employment close to 10,000 employees. McDonald’s operates through various formats including standalone restaurants, drive-thru’s, mall
food courts, McDelivery and dessert kiosks. It also has three thriving brand extensions – McDelivery, McCafe and McBreakfast.

Management
Name Designation SSS growth (%) Store count
80 400 357
Amit Jatia CEO
57.8 350 319 305 326
60 296
Saurabh Bhudolia CFO 300 277
36.1 258
40 236
Smita Jatia MD 250
15.8 17.0
20 200
1.8 4.0 4.0
0 150
100
-20 50
-40 -24.4 0
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23

Assumptions
Y/e 31 Mar, Consolidated FY22A FY23A FY24ii FY25ii FY26ii
SSS growth (%) 57.8 36.1 (1.5) 6.7 7.0
No. of stores 326 357 399 441 483
Source: Company data, IIFL Research

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Westlife Foodworld – BUY

Financial summary
Income statement summary (Rs m) Balance sheet summary (Rs m)
Y/e 31 Mar, Consolidated FY22A FY23A FY24ii FY25ii FY26ii Y/e 31 Mar, Consolidated FY22A FY23A FY24ii FY25ii FY26ii
Revenues 15,760 22,775 24,017 27,601 31,431 Cash & cash equivalents 1,737 1,583 1,104 120 356
Ebitda 1,888 3,734 3,756 4,637 5,547 Inventories 559 714 658 756 861
Depreciation and amortisation (1,364) (1,522) (1,789) (1,996) (2,229) Receivables 133 107 132 151 172
Ebit 524 2,212 1,967 2,642 3,319 Other current assets 1,048 1,185 1,428 1,621 1,825
Non-operating income 277 203 203 234 269 Creditors 1,722 1,877 1,979 2,274 2,590
Financial expense (826) (927) (1,115) (1,011) (960) Other current liabilities 1,087 1,423 1,494 1,569 1,647
PBT (25) 1,488 1,055 1,864 2,627 Net current assets 669 289 (152) (1,194) (1,023)
Exceptionals 0 0 0 0 0 Fixed assets 5,377 7,158 8,380 9,429 10,372
Reported PBT (25) 1,488 1,055 1,864 2,627 Intangibles 883 880 880 880 880
Tax expense 4 (379) (274) (469) (661) Investments 0 0 0 0 0
PAT (21) 1,110 781 1,395 1,966 Other long-term assets 8,238 9,361 9,735 10,108 10,473
Minorities, Associates etc. 0 0 0 0 0 Total net assets 15,167 17,689 18,844 19,223 20,702
Attributable PAT (21) 1,110 781 1,395 1,966 Borrowings 2,010 2,070 1,770 1,470 1,170
Other long-term liabilities 8,536 9,960 11,172 10,805 11,109
Ratio analysis Shareholders’ equity 4,621 5,659 5,902 6,948 8,423
Y/e 31 Mar, Consolidated FY22A FY23A FY24ii FY25ii FY26ii Total liabilities 15,167 17,689 18,844 19,223 20,702
Per share data (Rs)
Pre-exceptional EPS (0.1) 7.1 5.0 9.0 12.6 Cash flow summary (Rs m)
DPS 0.0 0.0 3.5 2.2 3.2 Y/e 31 Mar, Consolidated FY22A FY23A FY24ii FY25ii FY26ii
BVPS 29.6 36.3 37.8 44.6 54.0 Ebit 524 2,212 1,967 2,642 3,319
Growth ratios (%) Tax paid (66) (439) (274) (469) (661)
Revenues 59.9 44.5 5.5 14.9 13.9 Depreciation and amortization 1,364 1,522 1,789 1,996 2,229
Ebitda 305.8 97.8 0.6 23.5 19.6 Net working capital change (145) 70 (37) 59 64
EPS (98.0) (5368.5) (29.6) 78.7 40.9 Other operating items (253) (90) (203) (234) (269)
Profitability ratios (%) Operating cash flow before interest 1,706 3,485 3,445 4,227 4,950
Ebitda margin 12.0 16.4 15.6 16.8 17.6 Financial expense (133) (143) 97 (1,379) (656)
Ebit margin 3.3 9.7 8.2 9.6 10.6 Non-operating income 55 70 203 234 269
Tax rate 16.0 25.4 26.0 25.2 25.2 Operating cash flow after interest 1,628 3,412 3,745 3,082 4,564
Net profit margin (0.1) 4.9 3.3 5.1 6.3 Capital expenditure (1,185) (2,957) (3,385) (3,417) (3,536)
Return ratios (%) Long-term investments 565 234 0 0 0
ROE (0.4) 21.6 13.5 21.7 25.6 Others (1,248) (882) 0 0 0
ROCE 5.4 14.7 11.9 15.1 18.0 Free cash flow (240) (193) 360 (335) 1,027
Solvency ratios (x) Equity raising 24 (21) 0 0 0
Net debt-equity 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 Borrowings (142) 60 (300) (300) (300)
Net debt to Ebitda 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 Dividend 0 0 (538) (349) (492)
Interest coverage 0.6 2.4 1.8 2.6 3.5 Net chg in cash and equivalents (358) (154) (478) (984) 236
Source: Company data, IIFL Research Source: Company data, IIFL Research

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Westlife Foodworld – BUY

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Westlife Foodworld – BUY

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Name, Qualification and Certification of Research Analyst: Percy Panthaki(Chartered Accountant), Sameer Gupta(PGPM), Harsh V Shah(Chartered Accountant )

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Key to our recommendation structure

BUY - Stock expected to give a return 10%+ more than average return on a debt instrument over a 1-year horizon.

SELL - Stock expected to give a return 10%+ below the average return on a debt instrument over a 1-year horizon.

Add - Stock expected to give a return 0-10% over the average return on a debt instrument over a 1-year horizon.

Reduce - Stock expected to give a return 0-10% below the average return on a debt instrument over a 1-year horizon.

Distribution of Ratings: Out of 264 stocks rated in the IIFL coverage universe, 123 have BUY ratings, 6 have SELL ratings, 92 have ADD ratings, 2 have NR ratings and 41 have REDUCE ratings

Price Target: Unless otherwise stated in the text of this report, target prices in this report are based on either a discounted cash flow valuation or comparison of valuation ratios with companies seen by the analyst as
comparable or a combination of the two methods. The result of this fundamental valuation is adjusted to reflect the analyst’s views on the likely course of investor sentiment. Whichever valuation method is used there
is a significant risk that the target price will not be achieved within the expected timeframe. Risk factors include unforeseen changes in competitive pressures or in the level of demand for the company’s products. Such
demand variations may result from changes in technology, in the overall level of economic activity or, in some cases, in fashion. Valuations may also be affected by changes in taxation, in exchange rates and, in certain
industries, in regulations. Investment in overseas markets and instruments such as ADRs can result in increased risk from factors such as exchange rates, exchange controls, taxation, and political and social conditions.
This discussion of valuation methods and risk factors is not comprehensive – further information is available upon request.

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Westlife Foodworld – BUY

Date Close price Target price Rating Date Close price Target price Rating
Westlife Foodworld: 3 year price and rating history (Rs) (Rs) (Rs) (Rs)
(Rs) Price TP/Reco changed date 09 Jan 2024 824 1000 BUY 29 Oct 2021 574 625 ADD
1,200 15 Nov 2023 825 890 REDUCE 16 Aug 2021 512 550 ADD
1,000 27 Oct 2023 883 870 REDUCE 22 Jan 2021 460 450 ADD
800 28 Jul 2023 898 890 REDUCE
600 10 May 2023 768 750 REDUCE
25 Jan 2023 694 690 REDUCE
400
13 Dec 2022 729 780 ADD
200 10 Nov 2022 781 790 ADD
0 01 Aug 2022 584 650 ADD
Sep-21

Sep-22

Sep-23

Jan-24
May-21

May-22

May-23
Jan-21
Mar-21

Jan-22
Mar-22

Jul-22

Jan-23
Mar-23
Jul-21

Nov-21

Nov-22

Jul-23

Nov-23
19 May 2022 454 540 ADD
08 Apr 2022 482 500 ADD
07 Jan 2022 538 600 ADD

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