Munich Security Index 2024

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M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y R E P O RT 2 0 2 4

Munich Security Index 2024

Russia’s war on Ukraine marked a Zeitenwende across G7 countries. But two
years on, there are signs that its impact on risk perceptions is tempering.
The threat from Russia and related risks still rank considerably higher than
in 2021, but compared to last year, they have dropped in the risk index.
Meanwhile, perceptions of nontraditional risks remain high. People around
the world continue to be most concerned about environmental threats, while
risk perceptions of mass migration as a result of war or climate change, Islamic
terrorism, and organized crimes have heightened.

Since 2021, the MSC and Kekst CNC have collected data to answer core
questions that help understand global risk perceptions: Do people think
that the world is becoming a riskier place? Is there a global consensus on
some of the grave risks that humanity is facing today? And how prepared
do societies feel to tackle these threats? By combining five metrics, the
index provides an in-depth view of how 12 countries view 32 major risks
over time. This edition of the MSI is based on representative samples of
1,000 people from each G7 country and BRICS countries except Russia
(“BICS”). A survey with selected questions was also conducted in Ukraine.
The total sample thus amounts to 12,000 people. Polling was conducted
between October 24 and November 16, 2023, using industry-leading online
panels. The local surveys were carried out by trusted and reputable
fieldwork partners in compliance with the European Society for Opinion
and Market Research code. Respondents were selected according to
stratified quotas for gender, age, residency, formal education, and income
to ensure representativeness. The final data was then weighted to exactly
match the quotas. The margin of error was 3.1 percent. Polling in autocracies
always comes with difficulties, as respondents may not feel like they can
freely express their views. The results from China in particular should
therefore be interpreted with caution.

Following last year’s record-high threat perceptions, the MSI 2024 registers
aggregate decreases in 21 risk indicators, while ten indicators saw overall
increases (Figure 1.6). Almost all indicators related to Russia’s war on
Ukraine have fallen, including the use of nuclear weapons by an aggressor
and energy supply disruptions. While Russia was still the top risk for five G7
countries last year, only the citizens of the UK and Japan still consider it so.
German citizens now only see Russia as the seventh greatest concern and
Italians see it as the 12th. Other prominent risks have fallen, too. Strikingly,

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citizens in all but three countries – Brazil, Japan, and South Africa – have
lesser economic anxieties than last year. And both the perceived risk of
Covid-19 specifically and a future pandemic generally have dropped.

In contrast, perceptions of nontraditional risks have further increased. Concerns

about mass migration as a result of war or climate change and radical Islamic
terrorism have surged, though this is driven by countries in Europe and North
America and likely fueled by the terrorist attacks by Hamas against Israel and
the resulting war (Figure 1.5). The threat of Iran has also risen significantly in
the risk index among the G7 countries. Meanwhile, cyberattacks now rank as the
top concern in both China and the US. Notwithstanding abounding differences
in risk perceptions, citizens around the world continue to share severe concerns
about environmental threats. In all countries bar the US, at least one of the
three environmental threats covered by the index features in the top three.

Russia’s war and the wider geopolitical competition still shape citizens’
views of other countries, but less intensely than last year. Belarus, China,
Iran, and Russia are the only countries that are seen more as threats than
as allies in aggregate (Figure 1.9). After Russia’s standing plummeted last
year, it has modestly recovered in all countries except Japan, but it remains
very low. China, India, and South Africa still consider Russia more an ally
than a threat, with Brazil undecided, which stands in marked contrast to
views among citizens in the G7 countries. Five of the G7 countries have a
more favorable view of China than last year, with Canada and Japan being
the exceptions. Strikingly, China sees all countries except Russia and
Belarus as more threatening than last year. It is also the only country that
sees the US as a threat, if by a fine margin. Ukraine, which enjoyed the
greatest increase in last year’s index, is still considered an ally by all states,
in particular the G7 countries, but to a lesser extent than last year.

Thus, the Munich Security Index 2024 signals a moderation, but not a rupture,
of the post-Russian-invasion trends (Figure 1.7). Traditional hard security
threats appear to have peaked in 2022, but they remain higher than in 2021.
Among the G7 countries, the threat of Russia, for instance, rose from being
the 15th greatest concern in 2021, to the top concern in 2022, and dropped to
fourth in 2023. The risk of nuclear aggression follows a similar pattern. In the Munich Security
Index
BICS countries, risk perceptions have been less volatile since 2021, suggesting
that citizens see Russia’s war to be less of a turning point (Figure 1.8). The fact powered by

that perceptions of Iran and Russia have remained static, and views of China
have even improved, also contrasts markedly with views in the G7 countries.

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Explaining the Index

Index components The Munich Security Index combines the crucial components that make
a risk more serious. Public perceptions of trajectory are combined with
imminence and severity alongside a measure to give equal weight to
perceptions of preparedness.

Question 1 – How great is the overall risk to your

country?
Overall For each of the following, please say how great a risk it poses to
your country.
• Answer scale 0 – 10 [with 0 the lowest and 10 the greatest risk]

Question 2 – Will the risk increase or decrease over

the next twelve months?
Please say for each of the following whether you think the risk
Trajectory posed in your country will increase, decrease, or stay the same in
the next year.
• Answer scale 0 – 10 [with 0 the strongest decrease, 5 no change,
and 10 the strongest increase]

Question 3 – How severe would the damage be if it

happened?
For each of the following, please say how bad you think the
Severity
damage would be in your country if it were to happen or become
a major risk.
• Answer scale 0 – 10 [with 0 very low and 10 very severe damage]

Question 4 – How imminent is the risk?

For each of the following, please say how imminent a threat
you think it is.
Imminence • Answer scale 1 – 8 [with 1 "now or in the next few months"
and 8 "never"]
• Rescaled to 0 – 10 and reversed1

Question 5 – How prepared is your country?

For each of the following, please say how prepared your country is
Preparedness to deal with this threat.
• Answer scale 0 – 10 [with 0 the least and 10 the most prepared]
• Reversed2

Index scores To produce the final risk index score for each risk in each country we add the
mean scores for all five of the inputs above – overall risk, trajectory,
severity, imminence, and preparedness. The resulting total is then rescaled to
run from 0 to 100 for ease of interpretation. The final risk index score is an
absolute figure (with 100 the highest and 0 the lowest possible risk index
score) that can be compared between demographics, countries, and over time.

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Question 1 Question 2 Question 3 Question 4 Question 5

Overall Trajectory Severity Imminence Preparedness

rescaled
+ reversed
reversed

Mean
scores 0 – 10 + 0 – 10 + 0 – 10 + 0 – 10 + 0 – 10

added

0 – 50

rescaled

0 – 100

0 – 10 11 – 20 21 – 30 31 – 40 41 – 50 51 – 60 61 – 70 71 – 80 81 – 90 91 – 100

Besides a risk heatmap (page 6) that features the G7 countries, Brazil, China,
India, and South Africa and how they score on each of the 32 risks covered,
the index also includes an overview of how risk perceptions have changed
over time (pages 7–9) as well as an overview of how countries perceive other
states (page 21).

The index also provides more detailed insights into the individual risk Country profiles
profiles of the countries surveyed (pages 10–20).

Index score Change in Share thinking Share feeling

index score risk is imminent unprepared
Extreme weather
71 +10 63 28
and forest fires
Climate change generally 69 +9 58 28

Destruction of natural habitats 69 +7 60 29

Change in index score

Change in the risk index score since the last Munich Security Index was published. The last
edition of the index was based on surveys conducted in October and November 2022.

Share thinking risk is imminent

Percentage of respondents who answered “now or in the next few months,” “in the next year,”
and “in the next 5 years” in answer to the question “For each of the following, please say how
imminent a threat you think it is.

Share feeling unprepared

Percentage of respondents who rated their country’s preparedness as less than 6 on a 0 – 10
scale in answer to the question “For each of the following, please say how prepared your country
is to deal with this threat.”

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34
Figure 1.5
The risk heatmap, October–November 2023, score
r
e s so
g es
an i on gr
ch ut ag
e s tit r a n
rt y at s in o
n im ie d or r y ss by ce
cou r cl e m an ress unt g re ns en
o g re
s g ltu
s o ur ar o n en er agg co n
a ois elli
t u
re m w y a p n c
t fi
ts i n y f w
o ry at
io e ro e p o an m y nd al i ’s
i ta nt sf tr y ic
res lly ab risis ult u n m
in crim n e nc tern by y in n s b s a fici
i n
co t io c a ig i p o on rt ou em
M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y R E P O RT 2 0 2 4

d
fo ra l h l c res ism
e a r r i s
ri ed
p v
ol es ons rac
c a p /a c d
n n ur cia a ro u up n iz m l W p o e e a ts y m n
r a ge at an as ter y yo sr tio r d an ica st ea m ic l w w o m is pa
n
ca s to rror us n
t he ge of n fin ion ic alit on y
di iza the org
r e o lit ong r w f de em ica cal rob e ir s io
ea han on or rat lam qu cks p pl ola d o nal a t i o ta g
r o r p m lea o nd log mi us
a c n a e o r s re a nge g t av ate Un
n t
e
w c ti su p an io u p io a n n
i c i g I s i n e tt a
y cal m at rm o ar ns f n dow re f b f ch om wa Ko ch -wi oro d S ea
m te uc om m al g ra a fo sh w io u n t c p
t re ima estr on ass dic sin be ssi erg liti cis tern ina isin od n vil ivis se o eak fut se o se o to ade orth pid igh he nite uro
Ex Cl D Ec M Ra Ri Cy Ru En Po Ra In Ch D Fo Ira Ci D U Br A U U Au Tr N Ra R T U E
Brazil 80 79 79 69 60 53 71 66 51 52 69 65 64 47 69 58 47 62 59 56 56 61 56 56 57 54 41 47 41 47 39 34

South Africa 73 73 71 83 62 42 75 66 51 90 68 71 65 48 62 78 40 66 61 53 67 56 53 54 55 54 37 56 45 42 47 41

Italy 78 75 73 66 67 67 64 64 59 44 48 62 62 50 60 42 59 45 55 51 39 48 52 52 49 53 41 38 37 33 30 26

Japan 68 70 68 61 55 52 65 72 74 62 45 46 61 73 61 57 52 47 45 66 43 57 63 62 51 54 69 42 44 48 33 27

France 69 69 65 62 71 80 64 65 66 59 52 66 55 54 60 51 64 60 58 53 48 52 54 54 49 53 46 49 49 41 21 19

Germany 66 63 68 63 80 74 68 70 67 48 64 62 69 57 61 41 60 52 60 55 42 44 53 53 55 51 41 52 57 31 28 23

Canada 68 62 66 62 57 56 53 63 64 48 54 51 52 62 61 54 56 44 50 54 40 49 52 52 55 46 47 46 48 39 22 15

United Kingdom 60 61 62 58 60 59 54 61 66 55 49 51 54 56 55 48 55 41 48 51 39 46 51 51 53 39 44 42 45 32 16 15

United States 57 50 56 61 56 58 48 65 62 54 64 49 49 63 61 49 61 54 52 53 56 45 53 52 52 47 49 53 41 35 22

India 48 54 50 37 40 46 40 50 18 36 47 41 42 47 47 34 23 41 40 42 34 41 42 42 42 38 22 39 40 33 18 15

China 40 42 38 32 29 30 33 42 18 23 29 29 34 40 20 18 24 32 39 18 35 41 36 34 39 16 28 29 33 42 31

In the United States and China, citizens were not asked to assess the risk from their own country.

0 – 10 11 – 20 21 – 30 31 – 40 41 – 50 51 – 60 61 – 70 71 – 80 81 – 90 91 – 100

Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, commissioned by the Munich Security Conference
 Figure 1.6
The change heatmap, October–November 2023, change in index score since October–November 2022
r
e s so
ng es
a ti on gr
ch i tu ag
e t r an
e at i ns tr y o y
nc lim i d es ry un ss sb or
e c m re an nt co g re n e ss
g or e u s u g o g r
lli er co ur a is
te ar s en ult
w y yo an po ag
l in e f w fi re tion om ’s c y ts p o m n y d a n
a r y r a ce i n
cia im o st in s f ntr nt bit rn y in s sb sa by ic
tifi cr ult re n u a e l en y isi
e d res fo crim aig cou r co l h est ral i ol rac l cr p on ion
t p on o ns d em
r ism /ar a n l v o c ia e a p a p
rro ts iz a m and dis mp y ou ur t W ene
an s ris r a m y at s g io ca m nc w ru ic we ea an
te bo n z at l u sp
o rg n a rro her the n c to on f n ng ge o i o a
i t i l i ty d e n a
f fi i cal dis em al es r w
ly d i c g a i r
ic s ro l ar g av
am u na ra g
tio te eat d o tio ge ks n o mo an tes Uni a
a n c a e ol r p qu n o or s lo pp an em rta cle
l Isl mo t io ig in e w an rm cha tta ctio ns e ch Sta an Kor al p a r o ine ow mic ar bio su re p ch ho nu ron
o na m t- w w
ca n m m fo d ra ru io at ed pe h ic a w g kd o e of gy u of od s e of ssia e co
di to n ter ass gh tre cis isin pi be est ivis im nit ro ort lit in vil sin ea on ad se er fut se s u h
Ra Au Ira In M Ri Ex Ra D Ra Cy D D Cl U Eu N Po Ch Ci Ri Br Ec Tr U En A U Fo U R T
Germany +13 +10 +4 +2 +5 +5 -7 +3 +0 +5 -4 -5 +2 -7 -3 -1 -1 +2 -6 +1 -6 -1 -12 -9 -9 -20 -6 -9 -15 -10 -11 -11

United Kingdom +8 +15 +2 +0 +3 +0 -1 +2 +1 -2 +0 -3 -3 -4 +0 -1 +0 -4 -3 -4 -5 -10 -18 -9 -7 -25 -4 -7 -21 -11 -11 -9

Italy +19 +9 +8 +3 +4 +7 -4 +4 -2 +3 -1 -5 +0 -7 +2 +4 +2 +1 +0 +0 -3 +0 -10 -5 -6 -19 -3 -6 -9 -9 -8 -10

Brazil +15 +11 +10 +9 +5 -2 +9 +0 +3 -1 +5 +8 +3 +8 +5 +3 +5 +0 +2 -2 +4 -2 +3 +1 +3 +7 +2 +3 +1 +3 +3 +0

Canada +13 +13 +5 +1 +3 +3 +0 +2 +4 +5 +2 -2 +2 -3 -1 +1 +1 -1 +2 +1 +0 +1 -5 +0 -3 -6 -2 -2 -4 -3 -5 -4

France +16 +7 +7 +2 +8 +4 +0 +9 +5 +2 +3 -1 +5 +1 -1 +0 +0 +4 +1 +4 +0 +0 -3 -2 -2 -9 -2 -2 -11 -6 -4 -7

United States +9 +11 +7 +1 +2 -5 -2 -2 +1 -1 +1 -3 +3 -2 -1 -3 +0 +2 -1 -3 -2 -5 -2 -1 -9 -7 -2 -12 -5 -4 -6

Japan +9 +3 +6 +10 +6 +6 +5 +1 +5 +4 +5 +5 +4 +4 +2 +0 +2 +3 +2 +2 +2 +3 +2 +3 +1 -1 +0 -1 -1 -1 +0 -10

South Africa +0 +8 +1 +0 +1 +0 +3 -3 +2 -3 +0 +1 +3 +1 +5 +3 -2 -2 -6 -2 -1 -2 +2 +0 -1 -1 -5 -2 +1 -3 -6 -7

India -2 -1 -6 -1 -1 -6 +1 -3 +0 -1 +0 +1 -2 +1 -8 -10 -8 -2 -4 -2 -5 -5 -8 -4 -5 -6 -4 -5 -5 -8 -9 -9

China -7 -5 -14 -6 -11 -10 -6 -9 -4 -11 -3 -6 -8 -5 -4 -9 -14 -10 -14 -7 -17 -9 -5 -5 -15 -13 -8 -16 -8 -15 -18

In the United States and China, citizens were not asked to assess the risk from their own country.

-25 – -21 -20 – -16 -15 – -11 -10 – -6 -5 – -1 +0 – +5 +6 – +10 +11 – +15 +16 – +20
M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y I N D E X

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Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, commissioned by the Munich Security Conference
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Figure 1.7 The G7 risk bump chart, aggregate ranking of risks by the G7 countries, 2021−2023

November 2021 October/November 2022 October/November 2023

Climate change generally
Extreme weather and forest fires
Destruction of natural habitats
Cyberattacks on your country
The coronavirus pandemic
A future pandemic
Economic or financial crisis in your country
1 1
2 2
3 3
4 4
5 5
6 6
7 7
1 Extreme weather and forest fires (+1)
2 Cyberattacks on your country (+2)
3 Destruction of natural habitats (+0)
4 Russia (+11)
5 Radical Islamic terrorism (+4)
6 Climate change generally (-5)
7 Mass migration as a result of war or climate change (+3)
M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y R E P O RT 2 0 2 4

Rising inequality 8 8 8 Economic or financial crisis in your country (-1)

Radical Islamic terrorism 9 9 9 Disinformation campaigns from enemies (+3)
Mass migration as a result of war or climate change 10 10 10 Rising inequality (-2)
China 11 11 11 China (+0)
Disinformation campaigns from enemies 12 12 12 Iran (+10)
Racism and other discrimination 13 13 13 International organized crime (+1)
International organized crime 14 14 14 Racism and other discrimination (-1)
Russia 15 15 15 Use of nuclear weapons by an aggressor (+8)
Political polarization 16 16 16 Political polarization (+0)
Trade wars 17 17 17 Use of biological weapons by an aggressor (+1)
Use of biological weapons by an aggressor 18 18 18 Use of chemical weapons and poisons by an aggressor (+1)
Use of chemical weapons and poisons by an aggressor 19 19 19 Divisions amongst Western powers and institutions (+1)
Divisions amongst western powers and institutions 20 20 20 Energy supply disruption
Food shortages 21 21 21 Autonomous robots/artificial intelligence (+8)
Iran 22 22 22 A future pandemic (-16)
Use of nuclear weapons by an aggressor 23 23 23 Trade wars (-6)
Right-wing terrorism 24 24 24 Food shortages (-3)
Civil war or political violence 25 25 25 Civil war or political violence (+0)
North Korea 26 26 26 North Korea (+0)
Breakdown of democracy in my country 27 27 27 Right-wing terrorism (-3)
Rapid change to my country’s culture 28 28 28 Rapid change to my country’s culture (+0)
Autonomous robots/artificial intelligence 29 29 29 Breakdown of democracy in my country (-2)
United States 30 30 30 The coronavirus pandemic (-25)
European Union 31 31 31 United States (-1)
32 32 European Union (-1)

Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, commissioned by the Munich Security Conference -21--25 -11--20 -1--10 +0 +1-+10 +11-+20 +21-+25
 Figure 1.8 The “BICS” risk bump chart, aggregate ranking of risks by Brazil, China, India, and South Africa, 2021−2023

November 2021 October/November 2022 October/November 2023

Climate change generally 1 1 1 Climate change generally (+0)
Extreme weather and forest fires 2 2 2 Extreme weather and forest fires (+0)
Destruction of natural habitats 3 3 3 Destruction of natural habitats (+0)
Economic or financial crisis in your country 4 4 4 Cyberattacks on your country (+4)
Rising inequality 5 5 5 Economic or financial crisis in your country (-1)
The coronavirus pandemic 6 6 6 Rising inequality (-1)
A future pandemic 7 7 7 Disinformation campaigns from enemies (+5)
Cyberattacks on your country 8 8 8 Political polarization (+2)
China 9 9 9 International organized crime (+6)
Political polarization 10 10 10 Racism and other discrimination (+1)
Racism and other discrimination 11 11 11 Energy supply disruption
Disinformation campaigns from enemies 12 12 12 Use of biological weapons by an aggressor (+4)
Food shortages 13 13 13 A future pandemic (-6)
Civil war or political violence 14 14 14 Mass migration as a result of war or climate change (+3)
International organized crime 15 15 15 Divisions amongst Western powers and institutions (+3)
Use of biological weapons by an aggressor 16 16 16 Civil war or political violence (-2)
Mass migration as a result of war or climate change 17 17 17 China (-8)
Divisions amongst western powers and institutions 18 18 18 Use of nuclear weapons by an aggressor (+4)
Use of chemical weapons and poisons by an aggressor 19 19 19 Food shortages (-6)
Breakdown of democracy in my country 20 20 20 Use of chemical weapons and poisons by an aggressor (-1)
Trade wars 21 21 21 Autonomous robots/artificial intelligence (+2)
Use of nuclear weapons by an aggressor 22 22 22 Trade wars (-1)
Autonomous robots/artificial intelligence 23 23 23 Radical Islamic terrorism (+3)
Rapid change to my country’s culture 24 24 24 Breakdown of democracy in my country (-4)
Right-wing terrorism 25 25 25 Rapid change to my country’s culture (-1)
Radical Islamic terrorism 26 26 26 Right-wing terrorism (-1)
United States 27 27 27 The coronavirus pandemic (-21)
M

European Union 28 28 28 United States (-1)

MUUN

Russia 29 29 29 Russia (+0)

NIIC
CH

Iran 30 30 30 Iran (+0)

North Korea 31 31 31 European Union (-3)
H SSECU
ECUR

32 32 North Korea (-1)

RIIT
TYY IIN
NDDEEX
X

379
Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, commissioned by the Munich Security Conference -21--25 -11--20 -1--10 +0 +1-+10 +11-+20 +21-+25
M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y R E P O RT 2 0 2 4

Canada
Index score Change in Share thinking Share feeling
index score risk is imminent unprepared
Extreme weather 68 +0 67 28
and forest fires 1 Like several other
Destruction of natural habitats 66 -2 65 27 countries, Canada has
seen a considerable increase
Russia 64 -5 63 39 in its level of concern
about radical Islamic
Cyberattacks on your country 63 +2 65 25
terrorism. Since last year,
Climate change generally 62 -3 62 29 the risk has climbed from
Economic or financial crisis
26th place to tenth place.
62 -5 66 29 Despite this, Canada has a
in your country
China 62 +2 56 37 relatively low level of overall
concern on this issue –
Disinformation campaigns
from enemies
61 +4 67 25 among the G7, it is only more
Mass migration as a result of concerned than Japan.
57 +3 56 28
war or climate change
Radical Islamic terrorism 56 +13 50 27 2 Canadian concern about
the threat posed by
Iran 56 +5 51 33
autonomous robots and
Autonomous robots/
55 +13 45 26 artificial intelligence has
artificial intelligence
Use of nuclear weapons
also seen a striking increase,
54 -3 47 42 up from 28th place to
by an aggressor
Political polarization 54 -1 61 24
12th place of 32 risks
surveyed. Among
Food shortages 54 -4 60 29 respondents from G7
countries, Canadians
Rising inequality 53 +0 62 24
(and Germans) are the
Use of biological weapons
52 -3 49 44 most concerned.
by an aggressor
Use of chemical weapons and
52 -2 46 44
poisons by an aggressor 3 Canadian concerns about
International organized crime 52 +1 56 26 the impact of the Russian
invasion of Ukraine have
Racism and
other discrimination 51 +2 64 20 declined over the last year.
Divisions amongst Western Energy supply disruption
50 +2 48 26
powers and institutions has also dropped in the risk
A future pandemic 49 -2 54 21 ranking, from 15th place
to 24th place.
Right-wing terrorism 48 +3 52 26

Energy supply disruption 48 -6 58 26

North Korea 47 +1 42 35
Rapid change
46 +5 42 26
to my country’s culture
Trade wars 46 +0 51 23

Civil war or political violence 44 +1 46 27

Breakdown of democracy
40 +1 35 28
in my country
The coronavirus pandemic 39 -4 64 16
is the rise in ranking
of the perceived risk
+16
United States 22 -1 30 27
of autonomous
European Union 15 +1 26 22 robots and artificial
intelligence
Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, commissioned by the Munich Security Conference

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France
Index score Change in Share thinking Share feeling
index score risk is imminent unprepared

Radical Islamic terrorism 80 +16 65 19 1 Radical Islamic terrorism

Mass migration as a result of
71 +8 57 27 has climbed six places to
war or climate change become the most concerning
Climate change generally 69 +1 59 25 threat to the French, with
Extreme weather an index score of 80, up
69 +0 62 24
and forest fires 16 points from last year.
Racism and This makes France the
66 +9 62 18
other discrimination
country with the highest
Russia 66 -4 59 28 level of concern of any G7
Cyberattacks on your country 65 +3 59 20 member on the issue of
radical Islamic terrorism.
Destruction of natural habitats 65 -1 63 24 France has also seen a
seven-point index score
Rising inequality 64 +0 62 23
increase in the perceived
Iran 64 +7 52 25 threat posed by Iran.
Economic or financial crisis 62 -3 63 24
in your country 2 Mass migration as a result
Disinformation campaigns
60 +5 58 16 of war or climate change is
from enemies
now seen as the second most
Civil war or political violence 60 +4 49 24 serious threat facing France.
59 -9 66 25
This follows an eight-point
Energy supply disruption
index score increase, moving
Divisions amongst Western 58 +5 51 21 up from ninth place, that now
powers and institutions
makes France the second
International organized crime 55 +2 52 19
most concerned G7 member
Use of biological weapons
54 -2 49 27 on this issue, after Germany.
by an aggressor
Use of chemical weapons and
54 -2 49 26
poisons by an aggressor 3 The threat of racism and
China 54 +1 47 29 other forms of discrimination
has climbed eight places,
Use of nuclear weapons
by an aggressor
53 -6 49 23 from the 13th most serious
threat facing France last year
Trade wars 53 -2 56 19
to the fifth today. France is
A future pandemic 52 -2 58 19 now the G7 member with the
highest level of concern on
Political polarization 52 +4 52 17 this issue.
Food shortages 51 -11 60 23

Right-wing terrorism 49 +4 52 19
Autonomous robots/
49 +7 44 20
artificial intelligence
Rapid change to
49 +2 41 27
my country’s culture
Breakdown of democracy
48 +0 42 28
in my country
North Korea 46 +0 39 25

The coronavirus pandemic 41 -7 66 14

is the increase
+16
United States 21 -1 32 23
in the perceived risk
European Union 19 +0 33 20 of radical Islamic
terrorism
Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, commissioned by the Munich Security Conference

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Germany
Index score Change in Share thinking Share feeling
index score risk is imminent unprepared
Mass migration as a result
of war or climate change 80 +5 70 39 1 Russia, last year rated as
Radical Islamic terrorism 74 +13 67 31 Germany’s most serious
threat, has fallen by 11 index
Cyberattacks on your country 70 -4 74 36 points and is now ranked the
seventh most serious threat.
International organized crime 69 +2 72 31
Germans are similarly less
Destruction of natural habitats 68 -5 68 37 concerned now about the
threats posed by nuclear,
Rising inequality 68 -6 71 39 chemical, and biological
Russia 67 -11 67 45 weapons, with each falling
by nine to ten index points.
Extreme weather and forest fires 66 -7 71 37

Political polarization 64 +2 68 27
2 Economic anxieties are also
weaker than they were this
Climate change generally 63 -7 64 35 time last year. The perceived
Economic or financial risk posed by an economic or
63 -12 72 36
crisis in your country financial crisis has fallen out
Racism and other
62 +3 68 27 of the top ten threats facing
discrimination
Disinformation campaigns
Germany – from third to
61 +0 69 29 11th place – while that of
from enemies
Divisions amongst Western
60 +2 56 33
energy supply disruption has
powers and institutions dropped dramatically from
Iran 60 +4 54 38 ninth to 25th place.
Right-wing terrorism 57 +5 64 25
3 As in many other countries,
China 57 -6 57 45 the Hamas terrorist attack on
Use of nuclear weapons October 7 appears to have
55 -10 51 54
by an aggressor prompted a spike in German
Autonomous robots/ 55 +10 51 31 concern about radical Islamic
artificial intelligence terrorism, which increased
Use of biological weapons
by an aggressor
53 -9 50 54 by 13 index points, climbing
Use of chemical weapons and from 16th place to second
53 -9 51 53
poisons by an aggressor place. Mass migration as a
Civil war or result of war and climate
52 +1 53 37
political violence
Rapid change change has increased by five
52 +5 50 33 index points to take first
to my country’s culture
Trade wars 51 -9 59 37 place. Germany now has the
highest level of concern about
Energy supply disruption 48 -20 67 39 mass migration among the
countries surveyed.
A future pandemic 44 -6 62 27
Breakdown of democracy
42 -1 36 40
in my country
Food shortages 41 -15 59 34

North Korea 41 -1 43 37

The coronavirus pandemic 31 -11 67 20

is the change
+13
United States 28 -3 34 34
in index score
European Union 23 -1 35 31 for radical Islamic
terrorism
Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, commissioned by the Munich Security Conference

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Italy
Index score Change in Share thinking Share feeling
index score risk is imminent unprepared
Extreme weather 78 -4 73 37
and forest fires 1 Among the G7, Italians are
Climate change generally 75 -7 69 36 the most concerned about
the threat posed by climate
Destruction of natural habitats 73 -5 68 36 change, giving the issue an
index score of 75. Environmental
Radical Islamic terrorism 67 +19 54 27
issues – extreme weather and
Mass migration as a result of forest fires, the destruction
67 +4 61 35
war or climate change
Economic or financial crisis
of natural habitats, and climate
66 +10 71 35 change generally – make up
in your country
Cyberattacks on your country 64 -1 70 26 Italy’s top three threats, as
they did last year.
Rising inequality 64 -3 65 32

International organized crime 62 +3 65 25

2 On the contrary, Italy is the
least concerned member of
Racism and
other discrimination
62 +4 64 27 the G7 with respect to the
Disinformation campaigns threats posed by both Russia
60 -2 67 27
from enemies and China, with index scores
Russia 59 -8 60 42 of 59 and 50, respectively.

Iran 59 +8 50 35
3 Italy has seen a considerable
Divisions amongst Western 55 +0 58 28 increase in the level of
powers and institutions
concern about radical Islamic
Trade wars 53 -5 58 30 terrorism, increasing by 19
Use of biological weapons
52 -6 47 53
index points since last year
by an aggressor (the biggest increase seen
Use of chemical weapons and on any issue) and climbing
52 -6 47 52
poisons by an aggressor
Use of nuclear weapons from 22nd place to fourth
51 -9 48 53
by an aggressor place in Italy’s rankings.
China 50 +0 48 39
Autonomous robots/ 49 +9 46 27
artificial intelligence
A future pandemic 48 -3 54 21

Political polarization 48 +1 54 22

Civil war or political violence 45 +0 43 33

Energy supply disruption 44 -19 63 36

Food shortages 42 -9 48 34

North Korea 41 +2 40 34
Breakdown of democracy 39 +0 35 34
in my country
Rapid change to 38 +3 34 33
my country’s culture
Right-wing terrorism 37 +7 41 25

The coronavirus pandemic 33 -10 65 15

is Italy’s risk
75
United States 30 +2 35 33
index score for
European Union 26 +4 32 27 climate change

Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, commissioned by the Munich Security Conference

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M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y R E P O RT 2 0 2 4

Japan
Index score Change in Share thinking Share feeling
index score risk is imminent unprepared

Russia 74 +0 54 36 1 Of all countries surveyed,

China 73 +2 50 33 Japanese respondents are the
most concerned about the
Cyberattacks on your country 72 +5 59 27 threat posed by Russia. They
give the Russian threat an
Climate change generally 70 +4 53 25
index score of 74 – the same
North Korea 69 +2 49 33 as last year – meaning it is
Extreme weather
again perceived as the most
68 +5 52 23 serious threat facing Japan.
and forest fires
Destruction of natural habitats 68 +5 50 25
Use of nuclear weapons
2 Similarly, Japan is now the
66 -1 39 42 most concerned about the
by an aggressor
Rising inequality 65 +2 53 30 risk posed by China. With an
index score of 73 (up two
Use of biological weapons
by an aggressor
63 +1 38 43 points from last year), China is
Use of chemical weapons and narrowly ranked below Russia.
62 -1 37 42
poisons by an aggressor It is likely related that Japan is
Energy supply disruption 62 -1 39 34 also the country with the
highest perceived threat of
International organized crime 61 +10 45 27 cyberattacks, with an index
Disinformation campaigns
61 +5 51 27
score of 72.
from enemies
Economic or financial crisis
of your country 61 +2 44 27 3 The last year has seen a
A future pandemic 57 +0 51 21
marked increase in the
Japanese level of concern
Food shortages 57 -1 37 32 about international organized
Mass migration as a result of crime – rising by ten index
55 +6 41 26
war or climate change points to climb from 18th
Trade wars 54 +3 41 23 place to 13th place.

Radical Islamic terrorism 52 +9 35 31

Iran 52 +6 34 30
Autonomous robots/ 51 +3 44 22
artificial intelligence
The coronavirus pandemic 48 -10 68 16

Civil war or political violence 47 +2 36 27

Racism and other discrimination 46 +1 44 24

Political polarization 45 +3 38 25
Divisions amongst Western 45 +4 31 24
powers and institutions
Right-wing terrorism 44 +6 31 26
Breakdown of democracy 43 +3 25 27
in my country
Rapid change to my country’s 42 +4 26 25
culture

74
United States 33 +2 22 25
is Japan’s risk index
European Union 27 +0 18 26 score for Russia

Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, commissioned by the Munich Security Conference

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United Kingdom
Index score Change in Share thinking Share feeling
index score risk is imminent unprepared

Russia 66 -11 68 27 1 The British are much less

Destruction of natural habitats 62 -3 62 25 concerned about the economy
than they were this time last
Cyberattacks on your country 61 +0 67 16 year. The risks posed by an
economic or financial crisis,
Climate change generally 61 -4 59 25
food shortages, and energy
Extreme weather 60 -1 63 25 supply disruption have fallen
and forest fires
Mass migration as a result of
by 18, 21, and 25 index
60 +3 59 29 points, respectively – the latter
war or climate change
Radical Islamic terrorism 59 +8 59 16 being the biggest change
observed for any risk in any
Economic or financial crisis
in your country
58 -18 73 33 country. Respondents in the
UK are now less concerned
China 56 -3 57 28
about an economic crisis than
Disinformation campaigns 55 +1 65 18 other countries surveyed, bar
from enemies
India and China.
Energy supply disruption 55 -25 78 34

Iran 55 +2 56 23 2 Following a year which saw

ChatGPT burst into the
International organized crime 54 +0 63 16 public consciousness, the
Rising inequality 54 -5 64 28
perceived risk posed by
autonomous robots and
Autonomous robots/
artificial intelligence
53 +15 43 20 artificial intelligence has
Use of nuclear weapons increased by 15 index points.
51 -11 54 24
by an aggressor This is the biggest increase
Use of biological weapons
51 -7 53 25 seen in any country, although
by an aggressor
concern is heightened
Use of chemical weapons and
poisons by an aggressor
51 -7 54 26 everywhere but in India
Racism and other and China.
51 +2 62 16
discrimination
Political polarization 49 -4 60 21 3 While concern about Russia
Division amongst Western has fallen by 11 index points
powers and institutions 48 -3 53 21
in absolute terms, Russia is
Food shortages 48 -21 72 32 now seen as the most serious
threat facing the UK.
A future pandemic 46 -4 56 18

Right-wing terrorism 45 +0 56 17

North Korea 44 +0 43 22
Rapid change to
42 -2 46 25
my country’s culture
Civil war or political violence 41 -4 48 23
Breakdown of democracy 39 -10 47 29
in my country
Trade wars 39 -9 57 20

The coronavirus pandemic 32 -9 64 14

is the change
-25
United States 16 +0 26 24
in index score
European Union 15 -1 28 19 for energy supply
disruption
Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, commissioned by the Munich Security Conference

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United States
Index score Change in Share thinking Share feeling
index score risk is imminent unprepared
Cyberattacks on 65 +1 64 19
your country 1 Among US respondents,
Political polarization 64 +0 65 23 concern about political
polarization remains high,
China 63 +2 60 21 increasing two places
since last year to become
Russia 62 -4 62 22
the second-greatest
Disinformation campaigns 61 +1 65 19 perceived threat. This is
from enemies
Economic or financial crisis
the highest ranking for the
61 -5 64 27 risk of polarization among
in your country
Iran 61 +7 57 17 countries surveyed.

Radical Islamic terrorism 58 +9 55 16 2 The US is the third-least

Extreme weather 57 -2 60 22
concerned about inequality,
and forest fires behind India and China,
Destruction of natural habitats 56 -3 58 21 having fallen three index
Mass migration as a result points over the past year.
56 +2 56 25
of war or climate change
Breakdown of democracy
in my country 56 -2 54 28 3 Other than China, the US
is the least concerned with
Civil war or political violence 54 -1 56 23
respect to the threat posed
Energy supply disruption 54 -9 64 28 by climate change of all
surveyed countries. Americans
Use of nuclear weapons
by an aggressor 53 -5 54 17 give climate change an index
Use of biological weapons 53 -1 51 20
score of 50 (down two points
by an aggressor from last year), thus ranking
Rapid change to 53 -1 53 25 it 21st out of 32 risks overall.
my country’s culture
Use of chemical weapons and The US does show more
52 -2 52 19
poisons by an aggressor concern about extreme
Autonomous robots/ 52 +11 47 20 weather events and the
artificial intelligence
destruction of natural
Divisions amongst Western
powers and institutions 52 +3 51 18 habitats, but still rates these
less seriously than the other
Climate change generally 50 -2 54 22
members of the G7.
International organized crime 49 +1 53 16
Racism and 49 -2 61 20
other discrimination
Food shortages 49 -12 63 27

North Korea 49 -3 53 17

Rising inequality 48 -3 58 20

Trade wars 47 -2 56 18

A future pandemic 45 -7 54 19

Righ-wing terrorism 41 -5 53 18

The coronavirus pandemic 35 -6 59 14

2nd is the ranking
of the perceived
European Union 22 -1 36 15
place risk of political
polarization

Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, commissioned by the Munich Security Conference

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Brazil
Index score Change in Share thinking Share feeling
index score risk is imminent unprepared
Extreme weather
and forest fires 80 +9 66 34 1 Concern about the climate
Climate change generally 79 +8 66 33 and environmental threats
has been increasing among
Destruction of natural habitats 79 +8 64 34 Brazilians. The risk of extreme
weather and forest fires is up
Rising inequality 71 +4 63 34
nine points compared to last
Disinformation campaigns 69 +3 63 32 year, replacing climate change
from enemies
as the top perceived risk.
Political polarization 69 +0 68 29
Economic or financial crisis 69 +3 62 35 2 The risk of political
in your country
polarization is down two
Cyberattacks on your country 66 +5 57 35 places this year.
Racism and other discrimantion 65 +0 67 28
3 The risk posed by international
International organized crime 64 +9 52 38 organized crime is up five
Civil war or political violence 62 -2 60 34
places since last year, now
ranked 10th overall. The risk
A future pandemic 61 +2 54 30 posed by autonomous robots
Mass migration as a result of and artificial intelligence has
60 +5 57 27
war or climate change jumped up eight places,
Divisions amongst Western 59 +3 55 27 consistent with an upward
powers and institutions
trend among all countries
Food shortages 58 +1 51 35 surveyed.
Autonomous robots/
57 +11 49 35
artificial intelligence
Use of nuclear weapons 56 +3 44 52
by an aggressor
Use of biological weapons 56 +3 43 52
by an aggressor
Use of chemical weapons 56 +3 43 51
and poisons by an aggressor
Breakdown of democracy
56 -2 51 34
in my country
Trade wars 54 +1 56 29

Radical Islamic terrorism 53 +15 39 43

Energy supply disruption 52 +7 44 34

Russia 51 +3 45 42

The coronavirus pandemic 47 +0 56 25

Rapid change to
47 -1 49 30
my country’s culture
China 47 +2 41 39

Iran 47 +10 36 37

Right-wing terrorism 41 -2 46 37

North Korea 41 +5 35 38
is the index score
increase of the
+9
United States 39 +5 37 36
perceived risk of
European Union 34 +3 36 34 extreme weather
and forest fires
Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, commissioned by the Munich Security Conference

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China
Index score Change in Share thinking Share feeling
index score risk is imminent unprepared

Cyberattacks on your country 42 -3 50 4 1 The risk posed by the US is

Climate change generally 42 -5 48 3 now among the top three
risks perceived by Chinese
United States 42 -4 46 9 respondents. It is ranked third,
Use of biological weapons up four places since last year.
41 -5 40 5
by an aggressor
Disinformation campaigns
from enemies
40 -4 48 4 2 After a spike in overall
Extreme weather perceived risks last year,
40 -6 45 4
and forest fires Chinese concern has dropped
Use of nuclear weapons this year on all risk surveyed
39 -8 43 4
by an aggressor
in this ranking.
Trade wars 39 -5 46 3

Destruction of natural habitats 38 -6 45 4 3 The top three risks have

Use of chemical weapons and
completely changed since
36 -8 39 5 last year, with cyberattacks
poisons by an aggressor
A future pandemic 35 -13 58 5
now at the top of the list.
Moreover, climate change
International organized crime 34 -6 42 5 is now perceived as the
Autonomous robots/ second biggest risk, even
34 -5 44 5
artificial intelligence as it is down five points
The coronavirus pandemic 33 -18 59 4 since last year.

Rising inequality 33 -7 41 6
Divisions amongst Western
32 -8 41 5
powers and institutions
Economic or financial crisis 32 -9 40 5
in your country
European Union 31 -9 41 9

Radical Islamic terrorism 30 -7 39 7

Right-wing terrorism 29 -10 41 6

Political polarization 29 -10 40 7

Mass migration as a result of
29 -11 39 6
war or climate change
Racism and other discrimination 29 -9 39 5
Rapid change to
28 -11 38 6
my country’s culture
Civil war or political violence 24 -14 37 7

Energy supply disruption 23 -15 33 4

Food shortages 20 -16 35 6

Breakdown of democracy
in my country 18 -17 33 8

Russia 18 -15 35 11

Iran 18 -14 34 10
3rd is the ranking
of the threat posed
North Korea 16 -14 32 11
place by the US

Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, commissioned by the Munich Security Conference

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India
Index score Change in Share thinking Share feeling
index score risk is imminent unprepared

Climate change generally 54 +1 53 12 1 Compared to last year, the

Cyberattacks on your country 50 +0 52 11 perceived threat posed by
China fell from second
Destruction of natural habitats 50 +1 49 14 place to seventh place among
Extreme weather Indian respondents. This
and forest fires 48 +1 48 11
corresponds to a four-point
Disinformation campaigns drop in the overall index
47 +0 49 11
from enemies
score, with only ten percent
Political polarization 47 -2 52 14 of respondents now saying
China 47 -4 49 10
that they feel unprepared to
deal with China.
Radical Islamic terrorism 46 -2 50 13
Use of nuclear weapons
42 -8 55 11
2 The threat of extreme weather
by an aggressor and forest fires is up seven
Use of biological weapons
by an aggressor
42 -5 50 13 places to fourth position,
Use of chemical weapons while climate change is still
42 -5 47 15
and poisons by an aggressor seen as the top risk in India.
International organized crime 42 -1 46 9 The closing gap between
these two risks might
Autonomous robots/
artificial intelligence 42 -1 49 12 reflect the fact that Indian
A future pandemic 41 -4 46 13
respondents are increasingly
linking these two threats.
Racism and other
discrimination 41 -3 49 13

Civil war or political violence 41 -2 49 11

3 In line with the global trend,
cyberattacks rank as the
Right-wing terrorism 40 -6 50 12 second biggest risk in India,
Mass migration as a result of up two places since last
40 -1 42 14
war or climate change year.
Divisions amongst Western
40 -2 48 11
powers and institutions
Rising inequality 40 -5 47 14
Rapid change to
my country’s culture 39 -1 42 12

Trade wars 38 -4 45 13
Economic or financial crisis
in your country 37 -8 48 12

Energy supply disruption 36 -6 45 11

Breakdown of democracy
in my country 34 -5 40 16

Foot shortages 34 -5 43 12

The coronavirus pandemic 33 -9 52 10

Iran 23 -6 33 13

North Korea 22 -8 35 11

Russia 18 -9 36 13
is the share of

10%
United States 18 -8 32 11 respondents who feel
unprepared for the
European Union 15 -10 32 13
threat posed by China
Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, commissioned by the Munich Security Conference

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South Africa
Index score Change in Share thinking Share feeling
index score risk is imminent unprepared

Energy supply disruption 90 -1 75 47 1 South Africa is the country

Economic or financial crisis 83 +2 69 38 with the most stable top three
in your country
risks. Compared to the other
Food shortages 78 +1 68 37 countries surveyed, it is also
an outlier in terms of which
Rising inequality 75 -1 68 36
risks are seen as most serious.
Climate change generally 73 +1 66 31 Energy supply disruption
Extreme weather and
remains the top risk for South
73 +3 67 30 Africans. At 90 index points,
forest fires
Destruction of natural habitats 71 +1 64 29
down just one point from last
year, this is the highest rating
Racism and
other discrimination
71 -3 69 29 that any country has given to
a risk that it faces.
Political polarization 68 -2 65 30
Breakdown of democracy 2
in my country
67 -2 59 35 South Africans also remain
deeply concerned about
Cyberattacks on your country 66 +0 62 30
the risk of an economic or
Civil war or political violence 66 -2 60 36 financial crisis. While this
has receded in most other
International organized crime 65 +0 59 35 countries, in South Africa,
Disinformation campaigns
62 +2 59 29
it is up two points from
from enemies last year.
Mass migration as a result 62 +1 53 37
of war or climate change
Divisions amongst Western 3 Climate change is up one
61 +3 50 34
powers and institutions place to fifth position for
A future pandemic 56 -5 58 26 South Africans.
Rapid change to 56 -3 54 31
my country’s culture
Autonomous robots/ 55 +8 45 35
artificial intelligence
Use of chemical weapons 54 -2 41 48
by an aggressor
Trade wars 54 +0 51 33
Use of nuclear weapons 53 -3 45 49
by an aggressor
Use of biological weapons 53 -1 41 48
by an aggressor
Russia 51 -6 47 46

China 48 -6 47 43

United States 47 +5 39 40

Right-wing terrorism 45 +0 43 34

The coronavirus pandemic 42 -7 64 19

Radical Islamic terrorism 42 +0 41 38

European Union 41 +3 36 39
is the South African

90
Iran 40 +1 40 41 risk index score
for energy supply
North Korea 37 -2 35 43
disruption
Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, commissioned by the Munich Security Conference

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 Figure 1.9
Citizens’ perceptions of other countries, share saying country is an ally minus share saying country is a threat,
October–November 2023, percent

om
gd a es
y i n o re tat ica
n a l a K d n e i a a K S v a Afr ry s
a i d d n i ru i a
n ce rm y
l a n ad stra ite lan ede lan zil iwa rain an org ton uth ited ldo uth ael ia nga rkey ina n
u ra p e n o r h e l a u ss
ra e ta
F G I
n in w o
C A U F S P B T U J a k a s o
G E S U M S I o s I n d u u
H T C I ra B R
Ukraine 83 85 80 89 72 87 80 78 87 28 45 70 57 82 36 90 62 -1 56 19 -14 39 -33 -62 -76 -96

United States 49 44 49 51 51 49 45 47 42 26 40 41 40 20 20 34 15 25 41 26 28 13 -34 -35 2 -37

United Kingdom 55 55 56 63 63 57 58 52 28 33 56 36 27 38 30 61 24 34 20 35 35 17 -36 -39 -6 -48

India 40 38 32 23 37 37 31 32 31 36 27 22 39 26 19 35 41 26 37 28 26 19 -9 8 24 34

Japan 48 48 46 50 53 50 42 45 35 27 58 32 24 17 4 57 11 12 -6 28 31 30 -58 -22 -12 -61

China 27 24 30 19 17 14 30 31 22 43 19 -2 28 33 14 -1 33 40 14 12 34 32 38 49 59

France 59 58 57 50 56 56 58 42 22 23 43 37 16 32 23 56 21 18 22 13 31 -10 -23 -42 -20 -39

Canada 51 43 48 54 53 46 47 37 21 33 46 39 15 18 29 53 13 22 18 -4 25 8 -40 -41 -10 -43

Italy 44 41 41 38 41 40 43 34 22 15 32 35 16 26 14 43 19 14 13 9 21 -4 -17 -36 -10 -33

Germany 50 46 42 37 40 46 48 30 7 15 27 29 11 34 16 40 16 8 14 2 15 -9 -31 -42 -31 -45

Brazil 26 25 27 26 25 28 18 12 15 10 13 28 7 9 18 38 4 24 21 13 11 7 17 -12 -3 -1

South Africa 20 18 16 22 24 25 18 20 13 29 11 8 28 8 6 8 15 6 7 27 11 15 27 -2 6 16
M
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-100 – -61 -60 – -51 -50 – -41 -40 – -31 -30 – -21 -20 – -11 -10 – -1 0 – 10 11 – 20 21 – 30 31 – 40 41 – 50 51 – 60 61 – 70 71 – 80 81 – 90
NDDEEX

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Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, commissioned by the Munich Security Conference