• Concept of security in 21st Century.

• Power: Balance of Power, Elements of National Power.

• Foreign Policy: Determinants, decision making and
analysis
• National Interest & Sovereignty
 Think .. and identify type of threat.
1. If you experience draughts and floods?

2. If enemies of Pakistan sabotage CPEC?

3. If India divert the flow of waters – destined for Pak?

4. If your society polarizes on sectarian, lingual, and ethnic lines?

5. If there are frequent military coups in a country?

 Old concept of Security …

 “Security is absence of threat”. Arnold Wolfers

 Military Security against threats from other countries. (hard

military Threat)
 Security in 21st century.

 “Security is about the ability of a state to maintain its

independence, identity and functional integrity”.
Barry Buzan

 This concept of security is expansion from Military to

political, economic, societal, environmental security.

 It is security against the soft threats that emanates from within

the country .
 How theories define security ..?

 “Power to reach a dominating position brings security as a

result”. Realism

 “Security as a result of peace”. Liberalism

 New Threats and new realization

 1973 oil crisis highlighted the significance of economic security.

 Rapid climate change may lead to floods, famine, draught, air

pollution, acid rains, deforestation, and food insecurity etc.
 New Threats and threat perception
 Ethno-nationalism and separatist tendencies.

 Rise of NSAs, 9/11 dramatically changed security thinking of

the world.

 Mastung incident, PTC Quetta, Bali Bombing, 7/7, Paris

Attacks, Mehran Base attacks, GHQ attacks, APS Peshawar and
many more.
 5 Sectors of security by Barry Buzan

Societal Security
 Identity and demographic issues (majority Minority issue)

 Ethnic divisions is a threat in multi-ethnic societies.

 Migration/Refugees threatens communal identity and culture

by altering the ethnic, cultural religious and linguistic
composition of the population.
 Cultural transformation – Westernization.
 Political Security
 When state sovereignty is not challenged.

 There is no state with in a state.

 Successful power transfer from one govt. to other.

 Security against negative political transformation.

1. India can loose secularism to Hinduism.
2. American nationalism.
 Economic Security
 Least economic dependence.
 State must ensure revenues for state sustenance.
 Preference to industrialization.
 Policies must have compatibility with regional and global
economic rules – WTO, free market economy etc.
 Example: US military power is not the cause of US super
power status it is consequence of its economy.
 Military Security
 Having legal status of arms – IAEA etc.
 Having ability to defend militarily with sophisticated
Technology, Sufficient troops, state of the art training, and
will to fight.
Environment Security
 How climate change hits economy.
But still has security aspects;
 Environment degradation, draught, famines, Food shortage,
Land erosion, floods, Rains, earthquakes, tsunamis, etc.
 Environment weapons like HAARP etc.
National Security Mix in 21st century

 Military Capabilities,
 Economic and technological base,
 Democratic political system,
 Cohesive society,
 Strong allies,
 Borders with friendly states,
 Capitalist economy
 Stable social & welfare system.
Power: Elements of
National Power
 Power

 “Ability to influence other” Joseph Nye

 “Power is the ability to influence the behaviour of other to get

the desired outcome”
 Types of Power
 Hard power = military power, war, use of force, threat of use of
force.

 Soft power is the ability to attract people to your side without

using force, Joseph Nye

 Smart Power combination of hard and soft powers.

USA uses smart power vis-à-vis Pak.
 Sharp Power Using intellectuals to construct a favourable opinion
National Power

“The power and capability that a state uses to achieve its

national interests”.

Padelford & Lincoln

Elements of National Power

Tangible elements of National Power

1. Military capability,

2. Economy capability.

3. Geography,

4. Population and man power,

5. Industrial & Agricultural output,

7. Resources;
(Natural)
1.Coal 2. Iron 3. Oil 4. Gas 5. Water
(Human Resources)
Capital/Labour
 Intangible Elements of National Power

 Stable Political & Economic System

 Scientific & Technological base of Education

 National Morals & National Character;

 Leadership

 International standing

 Internal Cohesion

 Bureaucratic & diplomatic efficiency

Balance of Power

“An even distribution of power”.

 “The equilibrium of the power among states in such a way that

no state has dominance over other”.
 Balance of Power
How Balancing is done?
Either by diminishing the weight of the heavier state or by
increasing the weight of the lighter one.

(1) Divide and Rule

 For this purpose third party is necessary that may exercise its
authority with force.
 Employed by nations who want to keep the competitor weak,
e .g. UK, France with Germany and Ottomans after WWI &
WWII.
 (2) Armaments/Disarmament
 The purpose of armament of a nation is to keep up A by keeping
nation B down.

 For both a quantitative evaluation (arms) is required.

(3) Alliances

 Can add to their own power with the power of other nations.
(Alliance)
 (4) Intervention

 Russian intervention in Georgia 2008 & Ukraine.

 Indian intervention in East Pakistan 1971

 (5) Buffer States

 A buffer state is a small or weak state laying between two rival

great powers.
 It prevents conflict between them.
 A buffer state is a mutually agreed upon area.

Poland between USSR and Germany

Afghanistan between Britain and USSR
 The “Balancer” (who holds the balance)

 The balancer occupies the key position in the BOP system,

since its position determines the outcome of the competition
of the power.
 It decides who will win or lose?
 Which country can be a balancer B/W;
1. India and China?
2. China and US?
3. Iran and Saudi Arabia?
Foreign Policy: Determinants, decision
making and analysis
 Foreign Policy
“Strategies that governments use to guide their actions in the
international arena to pursue and protect national interests in given
situations.”

 FP is designed to Project and protect the national interest abroad.

 Foreign refers to things that exist beyond the territorial boundaries

 Policy can be referred to as the guidelines and approaches to

achieve the objectives.
 Stages in foreign policy decision making

 1Assessment of the international and domestic political

environment.
 2 Goal setting.
 3 Determination of policy options.
 4 Formal decision making process.
 5 Implementation of chosen policy option.
 Factors influencing the Foreign Policy

External Factors;

 A country’s position in international power structure

 Geographic Location

 World public opinion/Public Perception

 Alliances
 Internal Factors;

 Military Power

 Size, Geography, and resources

 Leadership

 Quality of Diplomacy

 Role of Media and Think Tanks

Graham Allison’s three models of
Foreign Policy Decision Making;
1- Rational Actor Model

1. Defining & analyze the problem

2. Prioritizing the Goal
3. Developing alternatives
4. Evaluating each alternatives
5. Selecting the best options
6. Execution of decision
Rational Actor Model
2 - Organizational Process Model (OPM)

 Leadership cannot make decision on its own.

 OPM is best for satisfactory decision making.

 Decision making is done by qualified and professional

individuals using SOPs.

 SOPs enhance efficiency.

 (3) Bureaucratic Model.
 This model explains the relationship between Bureaucrats and
elite politicians.

 Key individuals in critical positions with great influence.

 They have different priorities.

 They have different organizational positions and commitments:

 National Interest
 The goals that states pursue to maximize what they perceive to
be selfishly best for their country.
 The most important national interest is the survival of the state.
 Security, Stability, Prosperity are the cherished national
interest of every nation

“Political traditions and political cultural context with in which a

nation formulates its foreign policy”.
H. J. Morgenthau
 Types of National Interests

 Primary: physical (territorial integrity), cultural identity,

guarding against external aggression.

 Secondary: protection of diaspora living abroad.

 General: in the field of trade, diplomacy and international law.

 Sovereignty

 Sovereignty: A government has the right, in principle, to do

whatever it wants in its own territory.

 The principle of supreme authority within a territory

 In modern times, sovereignty is almost inextricably bound with

territoriality.
 Internal. External
 It is indivisible, absolute, permanent, and cannot be transferred
– “Rousseau”

 For Liberals sovereignty is defined in terms of the state’s

ability to control activities within and across its borders.

 For realists the essence of sovereignty is the state’s ability to

make authoritative decisions the decision to make wars.
 Questions …
 Foreign Policy decision making is a complex process, which
decision making model is followed in Pakistan and why?

 What are the determinants of foreign Policy of Pakistan?

 Suggest steps for Pakistan to keep the Balance of Power in

South Asia vis-à-vis India.