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  • Rice-Outlook-by-Month-ao-October 25, 2023

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    levnikko.macalintal
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    The document provides rice supply and demand outlook data for the Philippines for 2023. It shows total supply, production, imports, demand for food, feeds, processing and seeds, as well as beginning and ending stocks for each month. Total supply for the year is projected to be 18.2 million MT with ending stocks of 3.4 million MT providing 90 days of supply. Local production is projected based on 2022 semester 2 levels and historical monthly distribution trends are assumed for imports.

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    The document provides rice supply and demand outlook data for the Philippines for 2023. It shows total supply, production, imports, demand for food, feeds, processing and seeds, as well as beginning and ending stocks for each month. Total supply for the year is projected to be 18.2 million MT with ending stocks of 3.4 million MT providing 90 days of supply. Local production is projected based on 2022 semester 2 levels and historical monthly distribution trends are assumed for imports.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    4 views3 pages

    Rice-Outlook-by-Month-ao-October 25, 2023

    Uploaded by

    levnikko.macalintal
    The document provides rice supply and demand outlook data for the Philippines for 2023. It shows total supply, production, imports, demand for food, feeds, processing and seeds, as well as beginning and ending stocks for each month. Total supply for the year is projected to be 18.2 million MT with ending stocks of 3.4 million MT providing 90 days of supply. Local production is projected based on 2022 semester 2 levels and historical monthly distribution trends are assumed for imports.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    of 3

    2023 RICE OUTLOOK

    PARTICULARS SEM 1 JULY AUG SEP


    TOTAL SUPPLY 9,603,073.7 2,845,555.9 2,612,768.2 3,432,353.3
    BEGINNING STOCK 1,850,450.0 2,533,936.9 1,667,287.9 1,381,715.4
    LOCAL PRODUCTION 5,903,065.8 155,610.4 600,480.3 1,722,307.9
    IMPORTS 1,849,557.9 156,008.5 345,000.0 328,329.9
    TOTAL DEMAND 7,069,136.8 1,178,268.0 1,231,052.8 1,333,996.1
    FOOD 6,344,492.8 1,158,249.0 1,158,249.0 1,120,886.1
    FEEDS AND WASTE 383,699.3 10,114.7 39,031.2 111,950.0
    PROCESSING 236,122.6 6,224.4 24,019.2 68,892.3
    SEED USE 104,822.1 3,679.9 9,753.4 32,267.7
    ENDING STOCK 2,533,936.9 1,667,287.9 1,381,715.4 2,098,357.1
    DAYS TO LAST 68 45 37 56

    RELATED INDICATORS & ASSUMPTIONS


    Per capita consumption
    120.8 kg/annum November 2022 FAO Food Outlook 2022/2023 frcs
    per annum
    Daily food requirement 37,362.87 mt/day Derived using per capita consumption and populat
    Population(PSA Projection) 112,892,781 pax Based on PSA Updated Projected Mid-Year Population
    Milling Recovery 65.40% Based on PSA Parameters for Supply Utilization Accoun
    Feeds and wastes 6.50% of milled productBased on PSA Parameters for Supply Utilization Accoun
    Processing 4.00% of milled productBased on PSA Parameters for Supply Utilization Accoun
    Seed Use per hectare (in
    75 kg/ha Based on PSA Parameters for Supply Utilization Accoun
    rice equivalent)

    - Local Production is based on the following assumptions:


    1. Semester 1 production is based on PSA data (as of August 11, 2023).
    2. Semester 2 (projected) is based on the 2022 Sem 2 PSA production level.
    -- Monthly Distribution
    Current import data isofbased
    Localon
    Production would
    the following follow the historical trends.
    estimates:

    1. Jan-Aug import data is based from BOC import data (as of September 12, 2023.)
    2. Sept-Oct import data is based from BPI import arrival (as of October 19, 2023).
    3. Based on post-RTL trends (2019-2022 PSA data), Q4 import arrival of 554,925mt, respectively. Actual ar
    - Beginning stocks for Q1 are based on the stock inventory released by PSA (as of May 10, 2023) and ending stocks p
    Q3 OCT NOV DEC Q4 SEM 2
    5,841,674.0 4,547,266.7 5,282,837.7 4,573,312.9 7,380,203.6 11,123,520.5
    2,533,936.9 2,098,357.1 3,102,833.4 3,920,380.2 2,098,357.1 2,533,936.9
    2,478,398.7 2,275,076.5 2,003,094.2 445,750.7 4,723,921.5 7,202,320.2
    829,338.4 173,833.0 176,910.0 207,182.0 557,925.0 1,387,263.4
    3,743,316.9 1,444,433.2 1,362,457.5 1,213,775.8 4,020,666.6 7,763,983.4
    3,437,384.1 1,158,249.0 1,120,886.1 1,158,249.0 3,437,384.1 6,874,768.3
    161,095.9 147,880.0 130,201.1 28,973.8 307,054.9 468,150.8
    99,135.9 91,003.1 80,123.8 17,830.0 188,956.9 288,092.8
    45,700.9 47,301.2 31,246.4 8,723.0 87,270.7 132,971.5
    2,098,357.1 3,102,833.4 3,920,380.2 3,359,537.1 3,359,537.1 3,359,537.1
    56 83 105 90 90 90

    ood Outlook 2022/2023 frcs 124.7 June 2022 FAO Food Outlook 2 376.10%

    a consumption and populat 0 3,208,497.16


    Projected Mid-Year Population Based on 2015 POPCEN (released Oct 2019)
    ers for Supply Utilization Accounts
    ers for Supply Utilization Accounts
    ers for Supply Utilization Accounts
    ers for Supply Utilization Accounts

    3208497.1629

    -100.00%

    4,925mt, respectively. Actual arrival as of 19 October 2023 is 74,272.90 MT


    ay 10, 2023) and ending stocks per month is carried over for next month's beginning inventory.
    ANNUAL
    18,192,657.3
    1,850,450.0
    13,105,386.0
    3,236,821.3
    14,833,120.3
    13,219,261.0
    851,850.1
    524,215.4
    237,793.7
    3,359,537.1
    90

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