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Productivity Tip: We will do some simple drawing again. Check the information above regarding materials.
Get them all ready before you start. You can walk around if you feel bored already. Let’s do this with a happy
heart!
A. LESSON PREVIEW/REVIEW
Introduction
Tree diagrams are another way to show the outcomes of simple probability events where each outcome
is represented as a branch on a tree. In this lesson, you will look at examples of probability word problems
and use tree diagrams to solve the problems. The tree diagrams can be used to represent the set of all
possible outcomes involving one or more experiments. Probability tree diagrams are useful for both
independent and dependent probability.
A common example used to introduce tree diagrams is to find the number of possible outcomes of
flipping two coins in succession. We know that when we flip a coin, it will either land on heads or tails, so
when we flip one of the coins, we have two possible outcomes: heads or tails.
B. MAIN LESSON
Content Notes
The Addition Rule is used for dependent events, as well as mutually inclusive and mutually exclusive events
while the Multiplication Rule is used for independent events.
Addition Rule – For 2 events, A and B, the probability of selecting one event or another is given by:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) −P(A and B).
Multiplication Rule – For 2 independent events, A and B, where the outcome of A does not change the
probability of B, the probability of A and B is given by: P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B).
A tree diagram allows you to start at a single point and make mutually exclusive decisions or experience
mutually exclusive events to follow a path down the branches of the tree. Using the tree diagram is simple
once you assign the appropriate values to each node. Chance nodes, representing a possible outcome, must
be assigned a probability. Decision nodes ask a question and must be followed by answer nodes, such as
"yes" or "no." Often, a value will be associated with a node.
Example. Irvin opens up his sock drawer to get a pair socks to wear to school. He looks in the sock drawer and
sees 4 red socks, 6 white socks, and 8 brown socks. Irvin reaches in the drawer and pulls out a red sock. He is
wearing blue shorts, so he replaces it. He then draws out a white sock. What is the probability that Irvin pulls
out a red sock, replaces it, and then pulls out a white sock?
Skill-building Activities
Practice Exercises: Solve the following problems. Show the tree diagram.
1) Thirdy is a disc jockey. He chooses different types of records for each hour of his three-hour
program. The possible choices are listed below.
First hour Second hour Third hour
2) Jasmin has four white mice, two males and two females. Each of the two couples has three female
mice. Then each of these females has four babies. One night, Jasmin’s little sister Aisha leaves the
mice cage open and eight escape. How many mice does Jasmin have left?
3) A bag contains 3 black balls and 5 white balls. Paul picks a ball at random from the bag and
replaces it back in the bag. He mixes the balls in the bag and then picks another ball at random from
the bag.
a) Construct a probability tree of the problem.
b) Calculate the probability that Paul picks two black balls
“Check your answers against the Key to Corrections found at the end of this SAS.
Write your score on your paper.”
1. Mr. Tea Café serves two desserts, cake and pie. They also serve three beverages, coffee, tea or juice.
Suppose you choose one dessert and one beverage. How many possible outcomes are there?
2. Five students from different countries meet to plan an international peace ceremony. Each student
shakes the hand of each other student. How many handshakes are there altogether?
3. If you toss a coin 2 times, what is the probability of getting 2 heads? Use a tree diagram to find your
answer.
C. LESSON WRAP-UP
Frequently Asked Questions
1) What is a Probability Tree Diagram?
We can construct a probability tree diagram to help us solve some probability problems. A probability
tree diagram shows all the possible events. The first event is represented by a dot. From the dot,
branches are drawn to represent all possible outcomes of the event. The probability of each
outcome is written on its branch
1. What did you like about this lesson? Why did it make you feel this way? How did this feeling affect
your work?
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2. What routines, behaviors, actions help you work better? Describe how it helps.
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3.
b) To find the probability of getting two black balls, first locate the B branch and then follow the second
B branch. Since these are independent events we can multiply the probability of each branch.
Quiz
1. There are six possible outcomes
3. ¼ or 25%