Article
The Impact of Energy Transition on the Geopolitical Importance
of Oil-Exporting Countries
Mohsen Salimi 1 and Majid Amidpour 2, *
Citation: Salimi, M.; Amidpour, M.
The Impact of Energy Transition on
the Geopolitical Importance of
Oil-Exporting Countries. World 2022,
3, 607–618. https://doi.org/
10.3390/world3030033
Academic Editor: Manfred
Max Bergman
Received: 9 July 2022
Accepted: 9 August 2022
Published: 18 August 2022
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral
with regard to jurisdictional claims in
published maps and institutional affil-
iations.
Copyright: © 2022 by the authors.
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
This article is an open access article
distributed under the terms and
conditions of the Creative Commons
Attribution (CC BY) license (https://
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
4.0/).
World 2022, 3, 607–618. https://doi.org/10.3390/world3030033
1 Renewable Energy Research Department, Niroo Research Institute (NRI), Tehran P.O. Box 14665-517, Iran
2 Energy Systems Division, Department of Mechanical Engineering, K.N. Toosi University of Technology,
Tehran P.O. Box 19395-1999, Iran
* Correspondence: amidpour@kntu.ac.ir
Abstract: With the changes that have taken place in energy-related technologies, the United States has
been less affected by the geopolitical risks associated with the supply of fossil fuel energy resources,
especially crude oil. When the price of oil is low, the geopolitical situation of U.S. energy contrasts
with that of other oil-producing countries, which are facing financial pressure due to low oil prices
and a high domestic energy demand. Many other countries have been supplying crude oil compared
to half a century ago, reducing the strategic importance of major oil exporters, such as key OPEC
members in the Persian Gulf. The shale oil revolution in the United States and the transition of energy
in countries around the world to more sustainable energy sources, especially renewable energy, have
reduced the importance of security in the Arab states of the Persian Gulf for U.S. politicians, which
will be intensified in the future. Especially from the middle of the Carter administration period, U.S.
politicians saw the security of the Arab states of the Persian Gulf as a prerequisite for securing energy
supplies for the U.S. economy, but that has changed. Despite the disruption of Russia’s fossil fuel
energy supply, as one of the main energy suppliers, due to sanctions from February 2022, the global
energy carriers’ prices are relatively under control. Energy transition is one of the main contributors
to lowering the impact of fossil fuel energy supply disruptions on the global economy.
Keywords: energy transition; energy geopolitics; U.S. energy security; renewable energy; electrification;
climate change
1. Introduction
Because of the Western lifestyle and the Western economic structure requirements and
their dependence on crude oil supply, U.S. politicians in the 1960s and 1970s believed that
U.S. economic prosperity depended on the guaranteed access to Persian Gulf crude oil. In
his annual State of the Union Address, Carter stated the principle that the Persian Gulf
was the place the U.S. wanted to fight for. This is how the Carter Doctrine was unveiled.
According to this doctrine, the United States pledged to be ready to protect the Persian Gulf
oil fields from any threat. It acknowledged that the security of the Arab states of the Persian
Gulf was of paramount importance to the United States. Subsequent U.S. presidents from
both parties followed this policy, and the U.S. defined its role in protecting Persian Gulf oil
exports [1]. Before the collapse of the Soviet Union, the geopolitical risks to U.S. oil security
were high. The United States was heavily dependent on oil imports from the Persian
Gulf, so the threat of a halt to crude oil sales by its producers was high. Following the
proclamation of the Carter Doctrine, during Reagan’s presidency, the Pentagon established
the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) and gave it the task of overseeing Middle East
operations. The Bahrain-based U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet was responsible for providing security
in the Persian Gulf. The U.S. government annually spent billions of dollars to maintain the
Carter Doctrine and the security of the Arab states of the Persian Gulf after the declaration
of the Carter Doctrine [2]. However, the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s
https://www.mdpi.com/journal/world
World 2022, 3 608

changed the geopolitical landscape and dramatically reduced the geopolitical risks of
cutting oil exports to the United States. The demand for U.S. crude oil imports from the
Persian Gulf region decreased, and therefore, the geopolitical importance of these countries
to the United States diminished. Thereafter, the Carter doctrine was weakened in practice.
Also, recent events have shown that energy transition has changed the energy supply and
demand structure and has lowered the impact of energy supply disruptions to the global
economy, such as the recent disruption due to heavy sanctions on Russia, one of the main
fossil fuel energy suppliers.
The relationship between renewable energy and geopolitics was studied by Vakulchuk
et al. [3]. It was concluded that fossil fuel exporters will be the biggest losers of energy
transition. On the other hand, renewable energy resources will overall help peace and
global security. Also, Scholten et al. [4] concluded that there will be a positive disruption to
international security due to energy transition. In another study, Scholten and Bosman [5]
concluded that renewable energy sources have important technical and geographical
characteristics, such as the availability of at least one renewable energy resource in every
region of the world, the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources, and rare material
requirements for power generation.
In this paper, the importance of the security of the Arab countries in the Persian
Gulf and the geopolitical importance of these countries to the United States, mostly in the
context of energy transition, will be analyzed. This paper will focus primarily on (I) the
significant increase in U.S. crude oil production as a result of the shale oil revolution over
the last decade, (II) the geopolitical ramifications of the geological diversification of the
world’s oil producers and consumers, and (III) the requirements of climate change policies,
the development of renewable energy technologies (the economization of solar and wind
energy technologies and their raw material needs), and the development of light-duty
electric transportation.

2. Persian Gulf Security

“Carter Doctrine” is a term used in U.S. policy referring to maintaining Western
dominance in the Persian Gulf. This dominance has been essential for the non-stop export
of crude oil from the region [6]. In his 1980 State of the Union Address, Jimmy Carter
referenced the Carter Doctrine: “Let our position be absolutely clear: An attempt by any
outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the
vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any
means necessary, including military force” [6].
In this speech, the Persian Gulf region was referred to as “two-thirds of the world’s
exportable oil source,” and the United States was committed to maintaining “the security of
this vital region” [6]. U.S. imports of crude oil from the Arab states of the Persian Gulf have
not been the only reason for the U.S. alliance with Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries,
or the United States’ interest in maintaining a significant military presence in the Middle
East, especially in the Persian Gulf. Before the collapse of the Soviet Union, Saudi Arabia
and other GCC countries were important financial and ideological allies of the United
States’ cold war against the Soviets, especially in Afghanistan. Although the strategic areas
of this cooperation diminished with the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Carter Doctrine
remained intact.
By continuing to export oil to the United States at a reasonable price, Saudi Arabia
prevented the crude oil market from being disrupted due to political tensions in other oil-
producing countries and due to other supply disruptions. Recently, the military capabilities
of the GCC countries, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), have
improved. However, these local armies alone cannot guarantee the maritime transportation
security of LNG and crude oil and its products through the Strait of Hormuz.
The crude oil pipelines developed in the UAE to the Oman Sea and Saudi Arabia to
the Red Sea have vulnerabilities. The United States has benefited greatly from deploying
U.S. forces at bases around the Persian Gulf, many of which have nothing to do with the
 World 2022, 3, FOR PEER REVIEW 3

World 2022, 3 609

The crude oil pipelines developed in the UAE to the Oman Sea and Saudi Arabia to
the Red Sea have vulnerabilities. The United States has benefited greatly from deploying
Carter Doctrine.
U.S. forces at basesThesearound benefits include
the Persian Gulf,supporting
many of which U.S. forces in the to
have nothing Middle
do with East
theand
North
CarterAfrica (MENA)
Doctrine. Theseregion andinclude
benefits overseeing the activities
supporting of theincountries
U.S. forces the Middle in the region
East and [7].
The
NorthU.S. domination
Africa (MENA)ofregion offshore
andoil pipelinesthe
overseeing allows it to of
activities exert
the power
countries over its producers
in the region
and importers
[7]. The [8]. Nevertheless,
U.S. domination of offshoreinoilthepipelines
American political
allows sphere
it to exert powerand over
at theitsMiddle
produc-East
and world
ers and levels, [8].
importers some believe theinU.S.
Nevertheless, the is downsizing
American forces
political in the
sphere andregion. There are
at the Middle
differing views on whether the almost complete withdrawal
East and world levels, some believe the U.S. is downsizing forces in the region. There areof the United States can be
achieved without
differing views oncompromising
whether the almost U.S. complete
oil security or globalof
withdrawal oilthe
security.
United This
Statessetback
can be can
achieved without
significantly reduce compromising
the cost to U.S. U.S. oil security
taxpayers [2]. or
Dueglobal
to theoilglobal
security. Thisofsetback
nature can
the oil market,
significantly
the security of reduce
Persianthe cost
Gulftofossil
U.S. taxpayers
fuel producers[2]. Dueand to the
theglobal natureof
continuity oftheir
the oilsupply
mar- to
ket,global
the the security
energy of markets
Persian Gulfare fossil
still thefuelU.S.
producers and the continuity
government’s priority toofprevent
their supply to
the world
the global
crude energy
oil prices frommarkets are stillfluctuating.
significantly the U.S. government’s
The increasepriorityin U.S. tooilprevent
securitythe world the
weakens
crude oil prices
geopolitical from significantly
importance of the Arab fluctuating.
countries The of theincrease
PersianinGulf.
U.S. oil security weakens
the geopolitical
The notableimportance
factors in of theregard
this Arab countries
include the of the Persian Gulf.
availability of new resources such as
shale oil [9], the role of climate policy [10], the economization new
The notable factors in this regard include the availability of resources energy
of renewable such as[11]
shale oil [9], the role of climate policy [10], the economization of
and the electrification of final uses such as light transportation [12] (as the main drivers renewable energy [11] of
and the electrification of final uses such as light transportation [12]
crude oil demand), the geographical diversification of supplying countries, the increasing (as the main drivers of
crude oil demand), the geographical diversification of supplying
global supply of crude oil and its small-scale investment need, and the rapid return on countries, the increasing
global
the supply ofof
investment crude
shaleoiloil
and its which
[13], small-scale investment
all reduce need, and the
the geopolitical rapid return
importance ofon
thethe
GCC
investment of shale oil [13], which all reduce the geopolitical importance
monarchies as major exporters of crude oil. Figure 1 shows the critical oil transit routes of the GCC mon-
archies as major exporters of crude oil. Figure 1 shows the critical oil transit routes around
around the world.
the world.
Currently, the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Malacca, the Cape of Good Hope, the Suez
Currently, the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Malacca, the Cape of Good Hope, the
Canal, and Bab al-Mandeb are of the greatest geopolitical importance among the important
Suez Canal, and Bab al-Mandeb are of the greatest geopolitical importance among the
oil passages, respectively. As global crude oil demand declines in the 21st century, the
important oil passages, respectively. As global crude oil demand declines in the 21st cen-
geopolitical importance of many of these corridors to U.S. energy security will diminish.
tury, the geopolitical importance of many of these corridors to U.S. energy security will
The United States has the motivation, financial, and logistical capacity to secure the Persian
diminish. The United States has the motivation, financial, and logistical capacity to secure
Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Only China can pay for strategic security in the region by
the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Only China can pay for strategic security in the
monitoring its oil trade. However, China is still reluctant to accept the role that the U.S.
region by monitoring its oil trade. However, China is still reluctant to accept the role that
military is currently
the U.S. military is currentlyplayingplaying
in the region for thefor
in the region security of theof
the security Arab statesstates
the Arab of theofPersian
the
Gulf [14].Gulf [14].
Persian

Figure 1. Strategic oil

Figure 1. oil transfer
transferstraits
straits[15].
[15].

3. Impact of Technological Change and Energy Transition on Energy

Geopolitics Worldwide
3.1. Predicting Fossil Fuel Demand in the 21st Century
With the changes in the production, transmission, and use of renewable energy, the
demand for fossil fuels, oil, coal, and natural gas will reach its maximum in the next few
years. By contrast, changes in the production and technologies of renewable energy will
 3. Impact of Technological Change and Energy Transition on Energy Geopolitics
Worldwide
3.1. Predicting Fossil Fuel Demand in the 21st Century
World 2022, 3 With the changes in the production, transmission, and use of renewable energy, the 610
demand for fossil fuels, oil, coal, and natural gas will reach its maximum in the next few
years. By contrast, changes in the production and technologies of renewable energy will
increase the demand for renewable energy in the 21st century (Figure 2), which will have
increase the demand for renewable energy in the 21st century (Figure 2), which will have
geopolitical
geopoliticaland
andeconomic
economicconsequences
consequencesfor foroil-exporting
oil-exportingcountries,
countries,especially
especiallythe
theArab
Arab
countries
countries of the Persian Gulf. Also, dependencies will be created for countries thatsupply
of the Persian Gulf. Also, dependencies will be created for countries that supply
the
theraw
rawmaterials
materialsfor
forrenewable
renewablefuels,
fuels,as
asdiscussed
discussedininSection
Section4.4.

Figure
Figure2.2.IRENA’s
IRENA’sprediction
predictionofoffossil
fossilfuel
fueland
andrenewable
renewableenergy
energydemand
demandby
by2050
2050[16].
[16].

Demandfor
Demand forcrude
crudeoiloilhashasnotnotincreased
increasedin indeveloped
developedcountries
countriessuch
suchasasthe
theUnited
United
Statesininrecent
States recentyears
yearsdue duetotoincreased
increasedend-use
end-useefficiency
efficiencyandandlow
loweconomic
economicgrowth.
growth.Given
Given
the population
the population of ofdeveloping
developingcountries
countries andand
the the
strong prospects
strong for their
prospects for economic growth,
their economic
global oil
growth, demand
global is still is
oil demand rising [10]. [10].
still rising However,
However,many recent
many predictions
recent predictionsby reputable
by repu-
institutions predict the onset of peak global oil demand in the near
table institutions predict the onset of peak global oil demand in the near future. future. These predictions
These
suggest thatsuggest
predictions the stimulus
that theforstimulus
future oilfordemand
future will shift to developing
oil demand will shift tocountries,
developingespecially
coun-
China
tries, and India,
especially over
China theIndia,
and next over
few decades. McKinsey
the next few decades.predicts
McKinseythatpredicts
global oil
thatdemand
global
will
oil slowlywill
demand increase,
slowlyatincrease,
least until 2035,until
at least due2035,
to theduehigh
to economic growth and
the high economic growing
growth and
population of developing countries. Rystade, BloombergNEF, and
growing population of developing countries. Rystade, BloombergNEF, and OPEC predict OPEC predict that peak
oil demand will be reached in 2028, 2035, and 2040, respectively
that peak oil demand will be reached in 2028, 2035, and 2040, respectively [10]. [10].

3.2. Solar Energy Potential Worldwide

3.2. Solar Energy Potential Worldwide
The use of solar energy in an area is highly dependent on the amount of radiation
The use of solar energy in an area is highly dependent on the amount of radiation
and other factors. Figure 3 demonstrates the amount of sunlight in various parts of the
and other factors. Figure 3 demonstrates the amount of sunlight in various parts of the
world. As observed, the countries closer to the equator have a higher potential for using
world. As observed, the countries closer to the equator have a higher potential for using
solar energy. The geographical distribution of regions with high sunlight is very high, so
solar energy.
it does The geographical
not bring distribution
strategic importance to a of regions
specific with high
country. As sunlight
shown inisFigure
very high, so
3, solar
itradiation
does notisbring strategic importance to a specific country. As shown in Figure
significant in most parts of the United States, and the country has adequate 3, solar
radiation is significant
solar energy sources. Anin most partsconsideration
important of the Unitedabout
States,using
and the country
solar energyhas
andadequate
changing
solar
the global energy paradigm is to make it economical and competitive in price changing
energy sources. An important consideration about using solar energy and compared
the
withglobal
fossilenergy paradigm these
fuels. However, is to make it economical
will create and competitive
new dependencies on rawinmaterials
price compared
for solar
with
energy equipment that will have global geopolitical implications (see Section 4) [17].solar
fossil fuels. However, these will create new dependencies on raw materials for
energy equipment that will have global geopolitical implications (see Section 4) [17].
World 2022,
World 3 3, FOR PEER REVIEW
2022, 5 611
World 2022, 3, FOR PEER REVIEW 5

Figure
Figure3.3.Global
Globalhorizontal irradiation
horizontal [18]. Note:
irradiation [18]. Map
Note: obtained from the Global
Map obtained from theSolar Atlas Solar
Global 2.0, a Atlas 2.0, a
free, web-based application is developed and operated by the company Solargis
free, web-based application is developed and operated by the company Solargis s.r.o. on s.r.o. on behalf ofbehalf of the
the Figure 3. Global
World Bank horizontal
Group, utilizingirradiation [18].
Solargis data, Note:
with Map obtained
funding provided from
by thethe Global
Energy SolarMan-
Sector Atlas 2.0, a
World
free,Bank
agement
Group,application
web-based utilizing
Assistance Program
Solargis data,and
is developed
(ESMAP).
with
For additional
funding
operated byprovided by the Energy Sector
thehttps://globalsolaratlas.info
information: company Solargis s.r.o. on Management
behalf
(ac- of
Assistance
the on
cessed World Program (ESMAP).
Bank2022).
3 August Group, For Solargis
utilizing additional information:
data, with funding https://globalsolaratlas.info
provided by the Energy Sector (accessed
Man- on
agement2022).
3 August Assistance Program (ESMAP). For additional information: https://globalsolaratlas.info (ac-
3.3.cessed on 3 August
Wind Energy 2022).
Potential Worldwide
3.3. Figure
Wind Energy
4 showsPotential Worldwide
the potential for the use of wind energy worldwide based on wind
3.3.Figure
speed. Wind
As theEnergy
4figure
shows Potential
suggests, Worldwide
the potential for the
wind energy, use
like of wind
solar energy, energy worldwide
has a wide based on wind
geographical
speed. Figure
distribution the4 figure
As and, shows the potential
unlike many forenergy
fossilwind
suggests, fuel the usesources,
energy, oflike
wind is energy
notenergy,
solar worldwide
limited to
hasa few based on wind
specific
a wide geographical
speed.
regions As the
worldwide.
distribution and, figure suggests,
The important
unlike wind
point energy,
many fossil about like wind
using
fuel energy solar energy,
energy,
sources, haslimited
which
is not a wide geographical
changes
to athefew specific
global
regions energy
distribution paradigm,
and, unlike
worldwide. is to
The makefossil
many
importantits price
fuel more
point energy
aboutcompetitive
sources, isthan
using wind not that of fossil
limited
energy, to a fuels.
fewchanges
which specific the
However,
regions new dependencies
worldwide. The on raw materials
important point for windusing
about energy equipment
wind energy, will be created
which changes thefuels.
global energy paradigm, is to make its price more competitive than that of fossil
thatglobal
will have global
energy geopolitical
paradigm, implications
is to (see Section
make its price 4) [17].
more competitive than that of fossil fuels.
However, new dependencies on raw materials for wind energy equipment will be created
However, new dependencies on raw materials for wind energy equipment will be created
that will have global geopolitical implications (see Section 4) [17].
that will have global geopolitical implications (see Section 4) [17].

Figure 4. Wind energy potential worldwide (mean wind speed) [19]. Note: Map obtained from the
Global Wind Atlas 3.0, a free, web-based application developed, owned and operated by the Tech-
nical University of Denmark (DTU). The Global Wind Atlas 3.0 is released in partnership with the
Figure 4. 4.Wind
Figure Windenergy
energy potential worldwide
potential worldwide (mean
(mean wind
wind speed)
speed) [19]. [19].
Note: Note: Map obtained
Map obtained from the from
theGlobal
Global Wind
WindAtlas 3.0,3.0,
Atlas a free, web-based
a free, application
web-based developed,
application owned and
developed, operated
owned and by the Tech-
operated by the
nical University of Denmark (DTU). The Global Wind Atlas 3.0 is released in partnership with the
Technical University of Denmark (DTU). The Global Wind Atlas 3.0 is released in partnership with the
World Bank Group, utilizing data provided by Vortex, using funding provided by the Energy Sector
Management Assistance Program (ESMAP). For additional information: https://globalwindatlas.info
(accessed on 3 August 2022).
World 2022, 3, FOR PEER REVIEW 6

World Bank Group, utilizing data provided by Vortex, using funding provided by the Energy Sector
World 2022, 3 Management Assistance Program (ESMAP). For additional information: https://globalwindat-612
las.info (accessed on 3 August 2022).

3.4. Countries’
3.4. Dependence
Countries’ Dependence ononOil Imports—Patents
Oil Imports—Patents inin
thethe
Field of of
Field Renewable
RenewableEnergy
Energy
Figure 5 shows the number of patents of fossil-fuel-exporting and -importing
Figure 5 shows the number of patents of fossil-fuel-exporting and -importing countries coun-
tries
on renewable energy. As the figure suggests, China, the United States, the nations inin
on renewable energy. As the figure suggests, China, the United States, the nations the
the European
European Union,
Union, andand Japan
Japan areare
thethe leading
leading countries
countries in strengthening
in strengthening theirtheir techno-
technological
logical foundations
foundations in renewable
in renewable energy.energy. By developing
By developing these technologies
these technologies in the me-
in the medium-term
dium-term and providing
and providing the necessary
the necessary infrastructure,
infrastructure, these will
these countries countries
reducewill reduce
their their
geopolitical
geopolitical
dependence dependence on major oil-exporting
on major oil-exporting countries. countries.

Figure 5. Renewable energy patents in fossil fuel-importing and exporting countries [15].
Figure 5. Renewable energy patents in fossil fuel-importing and exporting countries [15].
3.5. Development of Electric Transportation
3.5. Development
Due to theofhistorical
Electric Transportation
role of petroleum products, such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel
Duedominant
as the to the historical role of petroleum
transportation products,
fuel, there has sucha as
long been gasoline,relationship
significant diesel, and jet fuel
between
asenergy
the dominant
and oil transportation fuel, there has
security in transportation. long beenenergy
Therefore, a significant
security relationship
policies havebetween
always
energy
avoided andglobal
oil security
economicin transportation.
fluctuations due Therefore, energygeopolitical
to unexpected security policies have always
disruptions in crude
avoided globaloreconomic
oil supplies a suddenfluctuations
increase in duecrudeto oil
unexpected
prices. Thegeopolitical
United Statesdisruptions in crude
is less vulnerable
oiltosupplies or a threats
geopolitical suddenon increase in crude oil
the international oilprices.
marketsTheasUnited States
the United is lesstransportation
States’ vulnerable
tosector
geopolitical threatsless
has become on dependent
the international oil markets
on petroleum as the due
products United States’ transportation
to increased efficiency and
sector has become less
the development dependent onvehicles
of alternative-fuel petroleum products
[12]. Reducing duethetorisk
increased efficiency
of geopolitical andin
issues
the
the oil market will
development not entail the end
of alternative-fuel of U.S.[12].
vehicles geopolitical
Reducingenergy risks,
the risk as new geopolitical
of geopolitical issues
inrisks related
the oil market to will
renewable
not entailenergy rawofmaterials
the end will inevitably
U.S. geopolitical energy arise. These
risks, as newhazards
geopolit- are
related
ical to minerals
risks related used in batteries
to renewable energy raw andmaterials
power grid will security
inevitably concerns [17]. hazards
arise. These With the
development
are of technologies
related to minerals related toand
used in batteries light-duty transportation
power grid with alternative
security concerns [17]. With energy
the
sources, including
development electric vehicles,
of technologies related tofuel cells, and
light-duty hybrids, the with
transportation long-term importance
alternative energyof
oil as the main transportation fuel in the world will be challenged, at least in light-duty
transportation, and the demand for the global oil supply will be reduced [12]. Electrification
in different sectors of the economy is predicted to grow by 2050 (Figure 6).
 oil as the main transportation fuel in the world will be challenged, at least in light-duty
transportation, and the demand for the global oil supply will be reduced [12]. Electrifica-
tion in different sectors of the economy is predicted to grow by 2050 (Figure 6).
Overall, with increasing concerns about climate change due to greenhouse gas emis-
sions, the pressure to use alternative energy sources and increase the efficiency of fossil
World 2022, 3 fuels have increased. This will increase energy security in the world and the United States 613
[12] and reduce the geopolitical importance of oil resources for governments worldwide,
especially that of the United States.

Figure 6. IRENA’s forecast of electrification rate of different sectors by 2050 (Electrification

Figure 6. IRENA’s forecast of electrification rate of different sectors by 2050 (Electrification Sce-
Scenario) [20].
nario) [20].
3.6. Influence of Climate Change Policies
Overall, with increasing concerns about climate change due to greenhouse gas emis-
Oil cannot be excluded from the future energy portfolio due to the long time required
sions, the pressure
to develop to use
suitable alternative
alternatives andenergy sources
integrate them and
into increase the efficiency of
the light transportation fossil fuels
sector’s
have increased. This will increase energy security in the world and the United
infrastructure and the use of petroleum products in heavy transportation such as aircraft States [12]
andand
reduce
ships. More than 90% of the world’s transportation services are based on petroleum espe-
the geopolitical importance of oil resources for governments worldwide,
cially
productsof[21,22].
that the United States.
According to this, the United States is expected to continue to rely on oil
markets in the foreseeable future. As a result, it is vulnerable to geopolitical risks, such as
3.6.oil
Influence of Climate Change Policies
price volatility.
OilIncannot
the past,
berenewable
excludedenergy wasfuture
from the only seriously considereddue
energy portfolio whento oil
theprices
long rose
time[23].
required
Now, by charging a carbon tax, most governments are trying to introduce costs related
to develop suitable alternatives and integrate them into the light transportation sector’s to
greenhouse gas emissions in the economic calculations of emitters, increasing the
infrastructure and the use of petroleum products in heavy transportation such as aircraft cost of
using oil.
and ships. More than 90% of the world’s transportation services are based on petroleum
products [21,22]. According to this, the United States is expected to continue to rely on oil
3.7. Quick Return on Investment in Shale Oil Extraction
markets in the foreseeable future. As a result, it is vulnerable to geopolitical risks, such as
A unique feature of shale oil compared with traditional crude oils is its small-scale
oil price volatility.
investment and short-time extraction cycle [13]. It can reduce grounds for political inter-
In the especially
ference, past, renewable
in areas energy was only seriously
where geopolitical considered
interference and unrestwhen oilproper
prevent pricespro-
rose [23].
Now, by charging
duction. a carbon tax, most governments are trying to introduce costs related to
greenhouse gas emissions in the economic calculations of emitters, increasing the cost of
using oil.

3.7. Quick Return on Investment in Shale Oil Extraction

A unique feature of shale oil compared with traditional crude oils is its small-scale in-
vestment and short-time extraction cycle [13]. It can reduce grounds for political interference,
especially in areas where geopolitical interference and unrest prevent proper production.

4. Changes in the Trade of Fossil Fuels and the Raw Materials Required for Renewable
Energy Worldwide
4.1. Percentage of Regional Trade in Fossil Fuels to GDP
Figure 7 shows the percentage of fossil fuel trade in total regional trade in different
parts of the world. As seen in this figure, the fossil fuel trade is much more important
in the economies of the Middle East compared with those in North America. The price
fluctuations of fossil fuels can impose significant pressure on the economies of the Middle
East. By contrast, the price fluctuations of fossil fuels in the economies of North American
countries, especially the United States, are more tolerable.
 4.1. Percentage of Regional Trade in Fossil Fuels to GDP
Figure 7 shows the percentage of fossil fuel trade in total regional trade in different
parts of the world. As seen in this figure, the fossil fuel trade is much more important in
the economies of the Middle East compared with those in North America. The price fluc-
World 2022, 3
tuations of fossil fuels can impose significant pressure on the economies of the Middle 614
East. By contrast, the price fluctuations of fossil fuels in the economies of North American
countries, especially the United States, are more tolerable.

Figure
Figure 7. Percentage
7. Percentage of regional
of regional trade trade in fuels
in fossil fossiltofuels
GDP to GDP [15].
[15].

4.2.
4.2. Changes
Changes in Global
in Global Oil Production
Oil Production by Country
by Country (2006–2018)
(2006–2018)
Figure
Figure 8 is8based
is based ondata
on the the from
data the
from the British
British Petroleum
Petroleum report
report [22]. [22]. The
The figure figure shows
shows
the changes
the changesin crude oil production
in crude in different
oil production countries
in different from 2006
countries fromto 2018.
2006According to
to 2018. According to
World 2022, 3, FOR PEER REVIEW the figure, the United States has had the largest increase in crude oil production, followed
the figure, the United States has had the largest increase in crude oil production, followed 9
byby
Iraq, Canada,
Iraq, Canada, Russia, and and
Russia, SaudiSaudi
Arabia.Arabia.

Figure 8. Changes in global oil production by country in 2006–2018 (data were collected from
Figure 8. Changes in global oil production by country in 2006–2018 (data were collected from [22]).
[22]).

4.3. Changes in Global Oil Demand by Country (2006–2018)

According to Figure 9, in the period from 2006 to 2018, the demand for crude oil in
the countries of China, India, and Saudi Arabia showed the highest increase. By contrast,
World 2022, 3
Figure 8. Changes in global oil production by country in 2006–2018 (data were collected from 615
[22]).

4.3. Changes in Global Oil Demand by Country (2006–2018)

4.3. Changes in Global Oil Demand by Country (2006–2018)
According to Figure 9, in the period from 2006 to 2018, the demand for crude oil in
According
the countries ofto FigureIndia,
China, 9, in the
andperiod
Saudi from 2006
Arabia to 2018,
showed thethe demand
highest for crude
increase. By oil in the
contrast,
countries of China, India, and Saudi Arabia showed the highest increase. By
the demand for crude oil in most countries, especially the United States, did not signifi-contrast, the
demand for crude oil in most countries, especially the United States, did not
cantly changed. The geopolitical importance of the Persian Gulf countries increased for significantly
changed.
China and The geopolitical
India, and stableimportance
crude oilofprices
the Persian
became Gulf countries
more importantincreased for China
for these and
countries.
India, and stable crude oil prices became more important for these countries.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia became the third country with the highest growth in oil At the same
time, Saudi
demand. Arabia
This means became the third
that much country
of the withcrude
country’s the highest growth
oil export in oilisdemand.
capacity dedicated This
to
means that
domestic use.much of the country’s crude oil export capacity is dedicated to domestic use.

-10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

Canada Mexico US Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador

Peru Trinidad & Tobago Venezuela Central America Other Caribbean Other South America Austria Belgium
Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France
Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania
Luxembourg Netherlands North Macedonia Norway Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia
Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey Ukraine United Kingdom Other Europe
Azerbaijan Belarus Kazakhstan Russian Federation Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Other CIS Iran
Iraq Israel Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Other Middle East
Algeria Egypt Morocco South Africa Eastern Africa Middle Africa Western Africa Other Northern Africa
Other Southern Africa Australia Bangladesh China China Hong Kong SAR India Indonesia Japan
Malaysia New Zealand Pakistan Philippines Singapore South Korea Sri Lanka Taiwan

Figure 9.
Figure 9. Change
Change in
in global
global oil
oil demand
demand by
by country,
country,2006–2018
2006–2018(data
(datawere
werecollected
collectedfrom
from[22]).
[22]).

4.4. Diversifying Global Oil Supply (1968–2018)

World 2022, 3, FOR PEER REVIEW Figure 10 shows
showsthethemajor
majorchanges
changesthat
that have
have taken
taken place
place in crude
in crude oil production
oil production 10
and
and supplier
supplier diversity
diversity over over the50
the last last 50 years.
years. The supply
The supply of crude
of crude oil hasoil has increased
increased from
from about
about 41 million to 95 million barrels per day. Also, during this period,
41 million to 95 million barrels per day. Also, during this period, the number of major the number of
major crude oil producers has significantly increased, which has reduced
crude oil producers has significantly increased, which has reduced the geopolitical im-the geopolitical
importance of each
portance of each of of these
these oiloil suppliers
suppliers andand
hashas
ledled
to atowider
a wider geographical
geographical distribution
distribution of
of these
these countries.
countries.

2018

1968

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000

Canada Mexico US Argentina Brazil Colombia

Ecuador Peru Trinidad & Tobago Venezuela Other S. & Cent. America Denmark
Italy Norway Romania United Kingdom Other Europe Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan Russian Federation Turkmenistan USSR Uzbekistan Other CIS
Iran Iraq Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia
Syria United Arab Emirates Yemen Other Middle East Algeria Angola
Chad Republic of Congo Egypt Equatorial Guinea Gabon Libya
Nigeria South Sudan Sudan Tunisia Other Africa Australia
Brunei China India Indonesia Malaysia Thailand
Vietnam Other Asia Pacific

Figure 10. Diversification of global oil supply (data were collected from [22]).
Figure 10. Diversification of global oil supply (data were collected from [22]).

4.5. Raw Materials Needed for Clean Energy

As the use of renewable energy increases, the demand for other raw materials will
develop, and the geopolitical importance of the countries of origin of these raw materials
will also increase (Table 1) [17]. This importance, like fossil fuels, is not exclusive and is
scattered in different geographical areas. Another difference between fossil fuels and
World 2022, 3 616

4.5. Raw Materials Needed for Clean Energy

As the use of renewable energy increases, the demand for other raw materials will
develop, and the geopolitical importance of the countries of origin of these raw materials
will also increase (Table 1) [17]. This importance, like fossil fuels, is not exclusive and is
scattered in different geographical areas. Another difference between fossil fuels and these
raw materials is their use. Fossil fuels are often used in the day-to-day operation of energy
systems. Still, renewable energy’s raw materials are usually used to build the equipment
related to renewable energy resources.

Table 1. Required raw materials for the production and consumption of clean energy [15,17,24].

Solar Energy Wind Energy Electrical Vehicles/ Major Reserve

Technologies Technologies Energy Storage Holders
Congo,
Cobalt X X Australia, Cuba,
Philippines
Chile, Australia,
Copper X X X
Peru, Mexico
Chile, China,
Lithium X Australia,
Argentina
South Africa,
Manganese X X
Ukraine, Brazil
Australia, Brazil,
Nickel X X
Russia, Cuba
Rare Earth China, Brazil,
X X
Elements Vietnam, Russia
China, Russia,
Selenium X
Peru, USA
Australia, Brazil,
Canada, China,
Silicon X X
Russia, South
Africa
Peru, Australia,
Silver X
Poland, Russia
China, Peru,
Tellurium X
USA, Canada

5. Conclusions
The energy transition from fossil fuels to clean and sustainable energy is a changing
force in global geopolitical equations and relations. As oil demand grows in developing
countries such as China and India, oil trade flows will continue, uniting oil producers in
the Persian Gulf with consumers in East and South Asia. Reducing dependence on oil
imports from the Middle East and the geographical diversification of crude oil supplies
have reduced U.S. strategic interest in the Persian Gulf and, in effect, have undermined
the Carter Doctrine. With the technological and economic changes that have taken place
in recent decades, it is no longer just the security of oil supply that is important, but also
the security of demand for producers, and that an oil producer can use its underground
wealth in the long run. There is a fear among fossil fuel producers that future climate
treaties will prevent them from extracting these resources. However, the growth of oil
demand in China and India has caused the effect of stagnant fossil fuel energy demands in
Western countries to be felt with a delay in the global oil market. The set of factors listed in
Sections 3 and 4 seems to contribute to the security of energy supply in the United States
now and in the future. The age of fossil fuels is coming to an end, and it will end before the
World 2022, 3 617

supply of fossil fuels is depleted. There are various reasons for the end of the age of fossil
fuels, including significant techno-economic progress in renewable energy technologies
and the need to lower GHG emissions and thus decrease the fossil fuel demand in the 21st
century. Another significant event is the significant changes that have taken place in the
field of crude oil production. More countries, especially the United States, have found a
significant share in the global oil market, and the market share of the Arab countries in the
Persian Gulf has decreased. That is why halving Saudi crude oil production in 2019 due to
the attack on the country’s oil facilities only affected global oil markets for a short time and
led to a relatively short-term price increase. These issues will have significant geopolitical
implications, meaning a weakening of the Carter Doctrine to oblige U.S. governments to
maintain the security of the Arab states of the Persian Gulf region. Also, energy transition
has mitigated the effect of the energy supply disruption caused by heavy sanctions on
Russia, one of the world’s primary fossil fuel energy suppliers.
In contrast to the current trend in energy markets, energy transition will continuously
improve the security of the energy supply in the United States and most countries. Despite
a sharp decline in U.S. dependence on oil imports, due to the global nature of the oil market,
the U.S. economy will be subject to changes in crude oil prices. Global trends have reduced
the Persian Gulf states’ disproportionate influence on the United States’ energy security
and, consequently, the region’s geopolitical importance to the USA. Also, increasing the
domestic demand for fossil fuel energy in the oil-exporting countries of the Persian Gulf
will lead to their lower exports and less presence in international markets, which further
reduces the geopolitical importance of these countries.

Author Contributions: Conceptualization, M.S. and M.A.; methodology, M.S. and M.A.; investiga-
tion, M.S. and M.A.; writing—original draft preparation, M.S. and M.A.; writing—review and editing,
M.S. and M.A.; supervision, M.A. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of
the manuscript.
Funding: This research received no external funding.
Institutional Review Board Statement: Not applicable.
Informed Consent Statement: Not applicable.
Data Availability Statement: Not applicable.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

References
1. Le Billon, P.; El Khatib, F. From free oil to “freedom oil”: Terrorism, war and US geopolitics in the Persian Gulf. Geopolitics 2004, 9,
109–137. [CrossRef]
2. Delucchi, M.A.; Murphy, J.J. US military expenditures to protect the use of Persian Gulf oil for motor vehicles. Energy Policy 2008,
36, 2253–2264. [CrossRef]
3. Vakulchuk, R.; Overland, I.; Scholten, D. Renewable energy and geopolitics: A review. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 2020,
122, 109547. [CrossRef]
4. Scholten, D.; Bazilian, M.; Overland, I.; Westphal, K. The geopolitics of renewables: New board, new game. Energy Policy 2020,
138, 111059. [CrossRef]
5. Scholten, D.; Bosman, R. The geopolitics of renewables; exploring the political implications of renewable energy systems. Technol.
Forecast. Soc. Change 2016, 103, 273–283. [CrossRef]
6. Klare, M.T. Carter Doctrine. In The Encyclopedia of War; Wiley: Hoboken, NJ, USA, 2011.
7. Fürtig, H. Conflict and cooperation in the Persian Gulf: The interregional order and US policy. Middle East J. 2007, 61, 627–640.
[CrossRef]
8. Hughes, L.; Long, A. Is there an oil weapon?: Security implications of changes in the structure of the international oil market. Int.
Secur. 2015, 39, 152–189. [CrossRef]
9. Solarin, S.A. The effects of shale oil production, capital and labour on economic growth in the United States: A maximum
likelihood analysis of the resource curse hypothesis. Resour. Policy 2020, 68, 101799. [CrossRef]
10. Randall, T.; Warren, H. Peak Oil is Suddenly Uppon Us. 2020. Available online: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020
-peak-oil-era-is-suddenly-upon-us/ (accessed on 2 December 2020).
World 2022, 3 618

11. Dogan, E.; Altinoz, B.; Madaleno, M.; Taskin, D. The impact of renewable energy consumption to economic growth: A replication
and extension of Inglesi-Lotz (2016). Energy Econ. 2020, 90, 104866. [CrossRef]
12. Lane, B.; Shaffer, B.; Samuelsen, S. A comparison of alternative vehicle fueling infrastructure scenarios. Appl. Energy 2020, 259,
114128. [CrossRef]
13. Çakır Melek, N.; Plante, M.; Yücel, M.K. Resource booms and the macroeconomy: The case of U.S. shale oil. Rev. Econ. Dyn. 2020,
42, 307–332. [CrossRef]
14. Garlick, J.; Havlová, R. China’s “Belt and Road” Economic Diplomacy in the Persian Gulf: Strategic Hedging amidst Saudi–Iranian
Regional Rivalry. J. Curr. Chin. Aff. 2020, 49, 82–105. [CrossRef]
15. IRENA. A New World: The Geopolitics of the Energy Transformation; IRENA: Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, 2019.
16. IRENA. Global Energy Transformation: A Roadmap to 2050; IRENA: Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, 2018.
17. Church, C.; Crawford, A. Green Conflict Minerals: The Fuels of Conflict in the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy; IISD: Winnipeg,
MB, Canada, 2018.
18. Global Solar Atlas. Global Horizontal Irradiation. 2022. Available online: https://worldbank-atlas.s3.amazonaws.com/
download/World/World_GHI_mid-size-map_160x95mm-300dpi_v20191015.png?AWSAccessKeyId=ASIAS2HACIWTCBP2
WM5Z&Expires=1659505564&Signature=X1qDk4QcRPw3LrPG3REiL%2BlYQGU%3D&x-amz-security-token=IQoJb3JpZ2
luX2VjEC4aCWV1LXd (accessed on 3 August 2022).
19. Global Wind Atlas. Mean Wind Speed. 2022. Available online: https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/globalwindatlas3/HR_
posters/ws_World.pdf (accessed on 3 August 2022).
20. IRENA. Smart Electrification with Renewables: Driving the Transformation of Energy Services; IRENA: Abu Dhabi, United Arab
Emirates, 2022.
21. Balke, N.S.; Brown, S.P.A. Oil supply shocks and the U.S. economy: An estimated DSGE model. Energy Policy 2018, 116, 357–372.
[CrossRef]
22. BP. BP Statistical Review of World Energy; BP p.l.c.: London, UK, 2021.
23. Mukhtarov, S.; Mikayilov, J.I.; Humbatova, S.; Muradov, V. Do high oil prices obstruct the transition to renewable energy
consumption? Sustainbility 2020, 12, 4689. [CrossRef]
24. Månberger, A.; Johansson, B. The geopolitics of metals and metalloids used for the renewable energy transition. Energy Strateg.
Rev. 2019, 26, 100394. [CrossRef]