Moving Average

MONTH ACTUAL SCHED 3-MONTH MOVING AVERAGE FORECAST

SALES
JAN 10
FEB 12
MAR 13
APR 16
MAY 19
JUNE 23
JUL 26
AUGUST

WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE

MONTH ACTUAL SCHED 3-MONTH WEIGHTED FORECAST

SALES MOVING AVERAGE
JAN 10
FEB 12
MAR 13
APR 16
MAY 19
JUNE 23
JUL 26
AUGUST

EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

MONTH ACTUAL SCHED SALES FORECAST

JAN 10
FEB 12
MAR 13
APR 16
MAY 19
JUNE 23
JUL 26
AUGUST

COMMON MEASURES OF ERROR

ACTUAL DEMAND FORECAST (At-Ft) (At-Ft)^2 ((At-Ft)/At)*100

120 125
130 125
110 125
140 125
110 125
130 125
Total
EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING TREND ADJUSTMENT

a= 0.20, b=0.40

ACTUAL SMOOTHED FORECAST, SMOOTHED FORECAST

MONTH DEMAND TREND, INCLUDING TREND,
t At Ft Tt FITt
JAN 10 10
FEB 12
MARCH 13
APR 16
MAY 19
JUNE 23
JUL 26
AUG
Total

TREND PROJECTIONS: LEAST SQUARES METHOD

YEAR TIME PERIOD ELECTRICAL POWER DEMAND

x y X^2 xy
1999 1 74
2000 2 79
2001 3 80
2002 4 90
2003 5 105
2004 6 142
2005 7 122
Total

SEASONAL INDEX
DEMAND AVERAGE AVERAGE SEASONAL FORECAST
2003-2005 MONTHLY INDEX
MONTH 2003 2004 2005
JAN 80 85 105
FEB 70 85 85
MAR 80 93 82
APR 90 95 115
MAY 113 125 131
JUN 110 115 120
JUL 100 102 113
AUG 88 102 110
SEP 85 90 95
OCT 77 78 85
NOV 75 72 83
DEC 82 78 80
Total
 ASSOCIATIVE FORECASTING

SALES, y PAYROLL, x X^2 xy

2.0 1
3.0 3
2.5 4
2.0 2
2.0 1
3.5 7

Standard Error of the Estimate

Sy,x =

r=

r^2 =

MONITORING AND CONTROLLING FORECASTS: TRACKING SIGNAL

QTR ACTUAL FORECAST ERROR RSFE │ABSOLUTE FORECAST ERROR│ CUMULATIVE ABSOLUTE MAD TS
DEMAND DEMAND FORECAST ERROR
1 90 100
2 95 100
3 115 100
4 100 110
5 125 110
6 140 110
TOTAL