2164
4, NOVEMBER 2011
Active Distribution Network Integrated
Planning Incorporating Distributed Generation
and Load Response Uncertainties
Vinicius F. Martins and Carmen L. T. Borges, Senior Member, IEEE
Abstract—This paper presents a model for active distribution
systems expansion planning based on genetic algorithms, where
distributed generation (DG) integration is considered together
with conventional alternatives for expansion, such as rewiring,
network reconfiguration, installation of new protection devices,
etc. The novel approach of planning DG integration together with
network expansion is a requirement for the modern active distri-
bution network. However, the uncertainties related to DG power
generation and load response growth must be taken into account in
order to plan a safe system at a minimum cost. Thus, two different
methodologies for uncertainties incorporation through the use
of multiple scenarios analysis are proposed and compared. The
multiple objectives optimization algorithm applied in the model
takes into account the costs of reliability, losses, power imported
from transmission, and network investments.
Index Terms—Active distribution network, distributed genera-
tion, expansion planning, genetic algorithms, load response, uncer-
tainty representation.
I. INTRODUCTION
ISTRIBUTION systems are facing the challenge of
D evolving from passive networks with unidirectional flow
supplied by the transmission grid to active distribution networks
(ADN) with the integration of distributed generation (DG) [1].
Distribution network becomes active when DG is incorporated
to the system leading to bidirectional power flows. Many of
these DG units are based on renewable energy sources, like
wind power, solar photovoltaic, biogas, fuel cells, etc., in order
to meet the environmental constraints established by the Kyoto
Protocol and other government initiatives. Although promising
an improvement on the power supply reliability and a reduction
on greenhouse gas emission, the implementation of active
distribution networks imposes a large number of technical and
regulatory issues that need to be carefully evaluated. Dispersed
generation availability, mainly those based on renewable energy
sources, has a high degree of uncertainty due to intermittency
of primary energy sources and to flexible operation policies.
Manuscript received July 11, 2010; revised January 03, 2011; accepted Feb-
ruary 18, 2011. Date of publication April 07, 2011; date of current version Oc-
tober 21, 2011. Paper no. TPWRS-00551-2010.
V. F. Martins is with EPE—Brazilian Energy Research Company, Rio de
Janeiro 20050-002, Brazil (e-mail: vinicius.martins@epe.gov.br).
C. L. T. Borges is with the Department of Electrical Engineering, Federal
University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro 21941-972, Brazil (e-mail:
carmen@nacad.ufrj.br).
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/TPWRS.2011.2122347
0885-8950/$26.00 © 2011 IEEE
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IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 26, NO.
Active distribution networks need to employ modern elec-
tronic devices and communication technologies, leading to
what is being currently called smartgrids. The smart devices
added to the network enable larger controllability of the system
during disturbances or generation unavailability, such as to
restore supply-demand balance through demand side manage-
ment schemes. In ADN, the distribution system operator (DSO)
can interact with DG and control the production of active and
reactive power. In addition, load response programs are being
stimulated as a way to provide electrical capacity during crit-
ical demand periods. In load response programs, the enrolled
customers receive a payment for the capacity that is actually
provided during curtailment events. Therefore, the economical
benefits may induce the customers to adhere to load response
and use private small capacity source to supply their load. All
these characteristics add an enormous amount of uncertainty
on the demand to be considered for system planning.
For all these reasons, active distribution networks need flex-
ible and intelligent planning methodologies in order to properly
exploit the integration of DG and load response, while still satis-
fying quality and reliability constraints. Uncertainties represen-
tation for generation and load is a must for these methodologies
in order to plan a safe and reliable system.
The problem of the expansion planning of distribution net-
works consists in determining the place and the capacity of re-
inforcement installation, based on the demand and the region ge-
ographical, political, and economical data. Expansion planning
seeks to define the capacity of the reinforcements and where
they should be installed to meet forecasted demand with min-
imal cost and acceptable quality standards. Conventional alter-
natives for expansion are rewiring, network reconfiguration by
closing normally opened switches (NO) for load transfer, instal-
lation of new NO switches, capacity expansion or construction
of new substations, installation of new feeders, etc. For active
distribution networks, the installation of DG units or the pur-
chase of energy from DG enterprises can also be considered to
meet the growing demand.
Planning depends on two basic parameters: technical con-
straints (equipment capacity, voltage drop, radial structure of the
network, reliability indices, etc.) and the optimization of eco-
nomical targets such as minimization of investment and oper-
ating costs, minimization of energy imported from transmission,
energy loss and reliability costs, etc.
Despite the evolution of traditional optimization algorithms,
they still face problems dealing with the inherent characteristics
of combinatory explosion of the distribution network expansion
MARTINS AND BORGES: ACTIVE DISTRIBUTION NETWORK INTEGRATED PLANNING
planning problem, due to the large number of variables involved
in the process. On that sense, evolutionary algorithms, particu-
larly genetic algorithms (GA), have been applied in this area
during the last years. Some models have been proposed for the
problem of distribution systems expansion planning showing
the advantages of GA utilization and allowing consideration of
many aspects of the problem.
The algorithms presented in [2] use GA as a technique to
solve the problem of static planning of distribution system ex-
pansion considering possible reinforcements or installation of
new feeders and substations. Fuzzy numbers are used in [3] to
consider uncertainties inherent to the expansion of distribution
networks. A proposal under the auspices of multiple objectives
and uncertainties is presented in [4] based on fuzzy numbers
and arithmetic operations. Based on multiple scenarios, an al-
gorithm is suggested in [5] in order to determine which lines
should be inserted into the system to optimize voltage profile
considering the presence of distributed generation. Proposals
using GA aiming at determining the best localization and ca-
pacity of distributed generation units, considering uncertainties
by fuzzy logics or multiple scenarios, are presented in [6]–[8].
This paper presents a model for expansion planning of
active distribution networks, based on genetic algorithms,
where distributed generation integration is considered together
with conventional alternatives for expansion, such as rewiring
and installation of new feeders, network reconfiguration by
changing the status of switches, installation of new switches
and protection devices, etc. Multiple objectives optimization is
applied concerning reliability, energy losses, energy imported
from transmission, and investment costs. Uncertainties on
demand values and power supplied by distributed generation
units are represented through the analysis of multiple scenarios
using two different methodologies. The first methodology
considers individual analysis of each scenario while the second
methodology analyzes all the scenarios simultaneously. Both
methodologies combine the multi-scenarios approach with
GA as a way of introducing probabilistic assessment into the
algorithm. Each optimal solution is weighted by the probability
of occurrence of that specific scenario, or, in order words, the
optimal solution is obtained considering the probability of
occurrence of the scenarios considered.
The novelty of the proposed model is the consideration of
DG integration together with conventional expansion alterna-
tives, taking into consideration reliability, losses, and costs con-
straints. The “fit-and-forget strategy” of DG employment may
be changed by the application of the proposed model, since it
incorporates integration of DG and load response at the expan-
sion planning phase. Moreover, due to the high degree of uncer-
tainties involved, the main focus of the paper is to propose two
different approaches to incorporate generation and load uncer-
tainties in order to plan a safe, reliable, and economic system.
II. EXPANSION PLANNING BASED ON GENETIC ALGORITHMS
The model proposed to solve the problem of expansion plan-
ning of active distribution networks uses genetic algorithms for
multi-objective optimization considering uncertainties. The so-
lution is a radial structure network that minimizes the adopted
objective function.
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2165
Fig. 1. Chromosome structure.
TABLE I
DECODING—CHANGES IN NETWORK TOPOLOGY
TABLE II
DECODING—DISTRIBUTED GENERATION
The genetic algorithm uses binary codification, where the
chromosome may be divided in four parts, as represented in
Fig. 1.
The first part of the chromosome refers to the possibility of
network topology changes through changes in the status of some
switches already installed or through the installation of new
switches. In this case, three bits are used resulting in eight pos-
sibilities for each alternative as shown in Table I.
Closing a NO switch causes the formation of a loop, a fact
that is not desired in distribution networks. Consequently, an-
other normally closed (NC) switch of the same loop has to be
opened to ensure maintenance of the radial structure. An algo-
rithm of optimal reconfiguration, developed in [9], is used to ob-
tain the new configuration of the network. Aiming at reducing
the size of the chromosome, only the switch that must be opened
is represented. Each chromosome represents a particular config-
uration or network topology.
The analysis of radial structure is conducted either for NO
switches already installed in the network or for candidate
switches. The change of network topology through changing
the status of some already installed switches has only the cost
related to the maneuver of switch opening/closing .
However, the installation of a new NO switch presents the cost
of the purchase of the equipment besides the cost of reconfigu-
ration when the new switch is closed and a switch that belongs
to the same loop is opened .
The second part of the chromosome refers to the possibility
of installing DG units in certain buses of the system and their
capacities (cost ). In this case, three bits are used for each
candidate DG unit, generating a total of eight possibilities,
including non-installation of the generating unit, as shown in
Table II.
The third part of the chromosome refers to the possibility of
rewiring certain network lines (cost ). In this case, one bit is
used, generating two possibilities for each alternative, as shown
in Table III.
The fourth part of the chromosome refers to the connection
of new load points into the system (cost ). For each load
2166
TABLE III
DECODING—REWIRING
TABLE IV
GA PARAMETERS
point, two bits are used giving a total of four possible alterna-
tives of allocation. The best alternative for connection is deter-
mined considering construction costs of the feeder to connect
the new load point to the system, according to (1):
(1)
where
cost of the connection of new load point to the
system bus ;
cost per km of feeder construction to connect the
new load point to the distribution system, which
varies with the type of wire;
distance in km between the new load point and the
point of the system where it will be connected.
The GA parameters adopted are shown in Table IV. The
values of the parameters were obtained after exhaustive tests,
varying them and comparing the performance of the algorithm
in terms of quality of the solution and simulation time.
The value of losses and energy imported from transmission
system are calculated by a nonlinear power flow solved by the
Newton-Raphson method.
The reliability indices (ECOST, SAIDI, and SAIFI) are calcu-
lated by an analytical method, as described in [10], which con-
siders all protection devices installed in the distribution network
as well as DG units. The power availability of DG units based on
intermittent energy sources, such as wind generation, are mod-
eled as [11], where their stochastic behavior is represented by
a multiple state Markov model that combines the intermittent
characteristics of the renewable energy source with the opera-
tional information (failure and repair rates) of the generator.
III. UNCERTAINTIES TREATMENT
The active distribution network expansion planning is in-
fluenced by several factors, among which are uncertainties of
loads, power generated by distributed generation units, and
cost of the reinforcements to be implanted in the network. This
paper presents two methodologies based on the theory of mul-
tiple scenarios to incorporate uncertainties relative to demand
and power supplied by DG. Each scenario is characterized by
a combination of load demand and generation availability. The
different load levels represent the load growth forecasted for
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IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 26, NO. 4, NOVEMBER 2011
the planning horizon, modified to incorporate the uncertainties
related to its stochastic nature and also to load response. The
different generation levels represent a combination of the
energy availability, dependent of the renewable source type,
together with the uncertainty around the actual integration of
DG in the planning horizon.
The choice of scenarios should consider aspects relevant to
the system under analysis. The developed methodologies allow
using a variable number of scenarios depending on the interest
of the planner. It is the planner who defines the amount of sce-
narios, the levels of load and generation, and the respective prob-
abilities to be considered in each one, based on his experience
and knowledge about the system and expansion alternatives.
The scenarios are defined independently of the methodology
and only after the scenarios have been defined are the proposed
methodologies applied.
A. Methodology I
The first methodology proposed for uncertainty consideration
during expansion planning of active distribution networks pro-
vides the planner an expansion alternative for each scenario an-
alyzed, thus allowing him to define what is the best expansion
plan to be adopted by applying some decision-making process.
A probability of occurrence is assigned to each scenario ob-
tained through the combination of scenarios of generation and
load.
A genetic algorithm is executed for each scenario considered
aiming at obtaining the best expansion alternative, considering
the uncertainty factors of load and generation for the respec-
tive scenario. The calculation of the fitness function to deter-
mine the best expansion alternative in each analyzed scenario is
performed by evaluating (2), which is composed by: 1) annual-
ized energy loss costs; 2) annualized expected value for non-dis-
tributed energy costs; 3) annualized costs of investments in dis-
tribution network reinforcement; and 4) annualized costs of en-
ergy imported from transmission, as follows:
(2)
where
annualized energy loss costs;
expected value of non-distributed energy costs;
annualized costs of system investments, calculated
by as
described below;
annualized costs of energy imported from
transmission system.
The constraints of active and reactive power balance, bus
voltage limits, power flow limits, and network radial structure
are also considered in the optimization process.
Fig. 2 presents the flowchart of Methodology I algorithm in
order to incorporate the uncertainties to the expansion plan-
ning problem of active distribution networks. This methodology
presents an expansion alternative for each scenario analyzed.
A second phase (Phase II) of Methodology I is characterized
by the decision-making process that aims to obtain a unique so-
lution for the expansion planning considering the solution of all
scenarios. The decision-making process developed was based
MARTINS AND BORGES: ACTIVE DISTRIBUTION NETWORK INTEGRATED PLANNING
Fig. 2. Algorithm for uncertainties treatment—Methodology I.
on [5] in which the final solution is determined taking into con-
sideration the solutions obtained in each scenario along with
their probabilities of occurrence. The final solution is composed
by the alternatives that have the highest probability of occur-
rence, calculated by adding the probability of occurrence of
the scenarios in which that particular alternative was selected.
Therefore, it is noteworthy that the final solution obtained by the
proposed decision-making process may be different from all the
solutions for each scenario analyzed individually.
In order to calculate the value of each parcel of (2) for the
solution determined after the application of Phase II, (3) is used.
Therefore, the objective function parcel value is obtained by the
sum of the value of that parcel in each scenario, weighted by the
probability of occurrence of the respective scenario:
(3)
where
value of the objective function ;
value of objective function in scenario ;
number of scenarios considered;
probability of occurrence of scenario .
B. Methodology II
The second methodology proposed for uncertainty consider-
ation during expansion planning of active distribution networks,
analyzes simultaneously all possible scenarios for each gener-
ation of the evolutive process. In this way, a unique solution is
obtained at the end of the process and a decision process is not
needed.
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2167
In Methodology II, GA is executed just once, considering all
possible scenarios and their probability of occurrence simul-
taneously. For each individual that attends the radial network
structure constraint, the power flow and ECOST are calculated
for each scenario aiming at determining its fitness value in each
scenario. In this way, the fitness of each individual is calculated
as a function of its fitness on multiple scenarios as shown in (4):
(4)
where
annualized energy loss costs of individual on
scenario ;
expected value of non-distributed energy costs of
individual on scenario ;
annualized costs of system investments of
individual on scenario ;
annualized costs of energy imported from
transmission of individual on scenario .
This process offers an expansion alternative which considers
all analyzed scenarios and their probability of occurrence. Fig. 3
shows the flowchart of Methodology II.
IV. RESULTS
The test system used was extracted from [12] and has one sub-
station, 33 buses, 35 lines, 32 NC switches, three NO switches,
voltage of 12.66 KV, and nominal load of 3715 MW and 2700
MVAr. Table V presents the costs related to losses and rein-
forcements obtained from published Brazilian figures (Brazil
Real R$1.00 corresponds to approximately US$0.50). An av-
erage cost was considered for DG units, regardless of its type
and technology, although different costs may be used. Fig. 4
shows a diagram of the system. The dotted lines represent NO
switches while the dashed lines represent candidate places for
new switches installation.
In order to ensure that the electric energy demand is met with
quality and economy, within the planning horizon, several ex-
pansion alternatives are analyzed:
• network reconfiguration by changing the status of NO
switches, installed in lines (34), (35), and (36);
• installation of new switches in lines (33) and (37);
• rewiring of lines (5), (6), (7), (16), (17), (20), (21), (22),
(23), (24), (28), (29), (30), (31), and (32);
• installation of DG units at buses (6), (7), (17), (21), (23),
(24), (29), (31), and (32). Units with capacity 30, 60, 90,
120, 150, 180, and 210 kW based on thermal and wind
generation are considered.
Three load scenarios and three generation scenarios are con-
sidered, totaling nine scenarios with different probabilities of
occurrence, as presented in Table VI, where
Factor used to obtain different load levels, as follows:
2168 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 26, NO. 4, NOVEMBER 2011

TABLE VI
CONSIDERED SCENARIOS

TABLE VII
REWIRED LINES, INSTALLED SWITCHES, AND NEW TOPOLOGY
FOR EACH SCENARIO—METHODOLOGY I

Factor used to obtain different generation levels,

as follows:
Fig. 3. Algorithm for uncertainties treatment—Methodology II.

where is the load of bus considering scenario

is the nominal load of bus is the generation of bus
considering scenario , and is the nominal generation
of bus .
These scenarios represent the planner expectation about the
probable values of load and generation factors. It means that an
uncertainty of until 20% on load growth and an uncertainty of
until 40% reduction on energy availability from DG need to be
evaluated for expansion planning.

A. Methodology I
The proposals for reinforcements and system configuration
changes for each scenario obtained by Methodology I are pre-
sented in Tables VII and VIII, where P.L. is the Penetration
Level (%) of DG relative to the load of each scenario.
Annualized cost values are shown in Table IX and reliability
indices and the lowest voltage value for each scenario are shown
Fig. 4. Test system. in Table X. In this paper, all costs are expressed in R$, SAIDI in
hours/consumer, and SAIFI in occurrences/consumer. Scenario
0 corresponds to the planning horizon without any expansion
TABLE V
COSTS OF LOSSES AND REINFORCEMENTS
investment considering all possible scenarios and their proba-
bility of occurrence.
The option of installing switches is the same for all the an-
alyzed scenarios. Two possibilities of rewiring were obtained;
the difference between them is the rewiring or not of line (20).
Table XI presents a percent comparison of costs, lowest
voltage value, and reliability indices between the configura-
tions obtained for each scenario and the original configuration
of the planning horizon (Scenario 0).
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MARTINS AND BORGES: ACTIVE DISTRIBUTION NETWORK INTEGRATED PLANNING
TABLE VIII
DISTRIBUTED GENERATION FOR EACH SCENARIO—METHODOLOGY I
TABLE IX
ANNUALIZED COSTS FOR EACH SCENARIO—METHODOLOGY I
TABLE X
RELIABILITY INDICES AND LOWEST VOLTAGE VALUE
FOR EACH SCENARIO—METHODOLOGY I
TABLE XI
PERCENT REDUCTION RELATIVE TO SCENARIO 0—METHODOLOGY I
Applying Phase II of Methodology I, to determine a unique
expansion solution considering all analyzed scenarios and their
probabilities of occurrence, the proposals of reinforcement and
system configuration changes obtained are shown in Tables XII
and XIII. Annualized cost values, SAIDI, SAIFI, and the lowest
voltage value are shown in Table XIV.
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2169
TABLE XII
REWIRED LINES, INSTALLED SWITCHES, AND NEW
TOPOLOGY—METHODOLOGY I—PHASE II
TABLE XIII
DISTRIBUTED GENERATION—METHODOLOGY I—PHASE II
TABLE XIV
ANNUALIZED COSTS AND RELIABILITY INDICES—METHODOLOGY I—PHASE II
TABLE XV
REDUCTION RELATIVE TO SCENARIO 0—METHODOLOGY I—PHASE II
Table XV shows a comparison between the results obtained in
Phase II and the original configuration of Scenario 0. An annual
reduction of R$508 275 or approximately 28.05% of total costs
is observed.
Phase II provides the expansion solution that is committed
with all analyzed scenarios and respective probability of occur-
rence. However, it may obtain a final solution with total cost
higher than one or more of the individual scenarios. In this case,
for example, the final solution coincides with scenario 8, while
scenarios 2 and 4 have lower total costs. However, since the sce-
narios are uncertain, the decision-making process aims to cap-
ture the most probable optimum expansion alternatives selected
in the scenarios.
B. Methodology II
The proposals for reinforcements and system configuration
changes are presented in Tables XVI and XVII, and annual-
ized costs, SAIDI, SAIFI, and lowest voltage value are shown
in Table XVIII.
Table XIX presents a comparison between the results ob-
tained and the original configuration of Scenario 0. An annual
reduction of R$512 316 or approximately 28.27% of total costs
is observed.
2170 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 26, NO. 4, NOVEMBER 2011

TABLE XVI TABLE XX

REWIRED LINES, INSTALLED SWITCHES, NEW SCENARIOS
AND NEW TOPOLOGY—METHODOLOGY II

TABLE XVII
DISTRIBUTED GENERATION—METHODOLOGY II

TABLE XXI
CONDITION OF THE PLANNING HORIZON BEFORE
EXPANSION—NEW SCENARIOS
TABLE XVIII
ANNUALIZED COSTS AND RELIABILITY INDICES—METHODOLOGY II

TABLE XXII
REWIRED LINES, INSTALLED SWITCHES, AND NEW
TOPOLOGY—NEW SCENARIOS—METHODOLOGY I
TABLE XIX
REDUCTION RELATIVE TO SCENARIO 0—METHODOLOGY II

TABLE XXIII
DISTRIBUTED GENERATION—NEW SCENARIOS—METHODOLOGY I
The solution found using Methodology II is better than the
solution obtained by Methodology I in relation to cost and re-
liability indices. In fact, the solution obtained by Methodology
II coincides with the solution of scenario 2 of Methodology I,
which is indeed the scenario with the lowest total cost. This good
behavior is explained because all the scenarios are analyzed si-
multaneously in Methodology II while in Methodology I, each
scenario is analyzed individually and only during the second
phase the best expansion alternative is obtained through a de-
cision-making process. However, Methodology I offers a set of
possible solutions and not just one as with Methodology II, al- The proposals for reinforcements and system configuration
lowing the planner to have more flexibility to decide. changes for each scenario analyzed, obtained by Methodology
I, are presented in Tables XXII and XXIII.
C. Changes in Scenarios The solution obtained in Phase II of Methodology I, consid-
The system behavior was observed under more pessimistic ering the nine scenarios, is the same shown in Table XII for
factors of load and generation uncertainties as well as under rewiring and switches. However, it is not indicated any dis-
new probabilities of occurrence of each scenario as shown in tributed generation installation. This result demonstrates the in-
Table XX. These scenarios consider a larger uncertainty around fluence of the generation uncertainty factor when obtaining the
the forecasted load (until 60%) and the possibility of much lower best solution. In this study, pessimistic generation availabili-
energy availability from DG (until 20%). ties were considered, which caused the non-installation of dis-
Annualized costs, reliability indices, and lowest voltage value tributed generation, because the benefits brought by DG are
relative to the original configuration of the planning horizon are small although their costs are constant, depending only on the
presented in Table XXI considering the new scenarios. installed capacities. Since there is no power generation at DG
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MARTINS AND BORGES: ACTIVE DISTRIBUTION NETWORK INTEGRATED PLANNING 2171

TABLE XXIV
ANNUALIZED COSTS AND RELIABILITY INDICES—NEW
SCENARIOS—METHODOLOGY I—FASE II

TABLE XXV
ANNUALIZED COSTS AND RELIABILITY INDICES—NEW
SCENARIOS—METHODOLOGY II

Fig. 5. New load points connection.

units, the load is entirely attended by the energy imported from
the transmission network. Annualized costs, SAIDI, SAIFI, and TABLE XXVI
NEW LOAD POINTS AND POSSIBLE CONNECTION POINTS
lowest voltage value are shown in Table XXIV.
Methodology II obtained the same solution found for scenario
(7) of Methodology I, which is the installation of 180 kW of DG
in both buses (17) and (32). Table XXV shows the annualized
costs, reliability indices, and lowest voltage value obtained by
Methodology II. TABLE XXVII
As occurred in the previous case, the solution found using DISTRIBUTED GENERATION—NEW LOAD POINTS—METHODOLOGY I—PHASE
II
Methodology II is better than the solution obtained by Method-
ology I in relation to cost and reliability indices. On the other
hand, Methodology I has the advantage of providing a larger
portfolio of expansion options, since it obtains an optimal solu-
tion for each one. TABLE XXVIII
In a general manner, it can be concluded that the solution with CONNECTION POINTS OF NEW LOAD POINTS—METHODOLOGY I—PHASE II
relation to rewiring, installed switches, and topology do not or
slightly change when the scenarios are modified. The variation
of uncertainties factors for loads and DG and scenarios proba-
bilities is significant in determining the DG capacities to be in-
stalled in the system. When more pessimistic uncertainty factor TABLE XXIX
for generation are considered, there is a trend to reduce or even ANNUALIZED COSTS AND RELIABILITY INDICES—NEW LOAD
not install DG due to the fact that the benefits to the system are POINTS—METHODOLOGY I—PHASE II
reduced while the installation cost remains the same.

D. New Load Points

For this test, the necessity of attending three new load points
represented by buses (34), (35), and (36) is considered. They
can be connected to one of four possible connection points as
shown in Fig. 5 and detailed in Table XXVI.
Methodology I was applied in order to represent the uncer- and Table XXIX shows the solution costs and reliability indices.
tainties with the same scenarios and probabilities shown in
Table VI. The solution obtained in Phase II is the same shown The necessity of attending new load points did not cause
in Table XII for rewiring and switches. Results for distributed changes in relation to the solution obtained for rewiring,
generation are shown in Table XXVII, while Table XXVIII switches, and grid topology of Section IV-A. However, in
shows the connection points selected for the new load points relation to DG installation, 90 kW of extra generation has to
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2172
be added to attend the load. A cost increase of R$254 702 or
approximately 19.53% is observed due to the necessity of a
system load increase of 15.22%.
V. CONCLUSION
Uncertainties on the power generated by distributed gen-
eration units and the variation of demand are inherent to the
problem of active distribution networks expansion planning.
Two methodologies were proposed for representing uncer-
tainties. Methodology I considered the individual analysis of
each scenario, and an expansion alternative for each scenario
was determined in a first phase. In a second phase, a deci-
sion-making process was applied aiming at obtaining a unique
solution considering the solutions obtained in the first phase
as well as the probabilities of occurrence of each scenario
considered. In Methodology II, the scenarios were analyzed
simultaneously together with their probabilities of occurrence,
directly obtaining a unique solution.
The obtained results indicate that most of the times, the so-
lution obtained by Methodology II was better than the solution
obtained by Methodology I in terms of cost and reliability. This
can be explained because in Methodology II, all the scenarios
are analyzed simultaneously while in Methodology I, each sce-
nario is considered individually and only in a second phase,
the best expansion alternative is obtained by a decision-making
process. Nonetheless, Methodology I offers a set of solutions
and not just one, allowing the planner to have more flexibility
in choosing the best solution. The computer effort required is
similar for both methdologies.
In a general manner, consideration of uncertainties during
the optimization process allows obtaining a solution more com-
mitted with reality, since several scenarios with their probabili-
ties of occurrence are analyzed. A realistic planning can provide
a great improvement in terms of system efficiency as well as a
great reduction of costs. In modern active distribution networks,
an integrated planning facing all alternatives together with gen-
eration and load uncertainties is an important requirement in
order to mostly explore the benefits without extra investment
costs or system risks.
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Vinicius F. Martins received the B.Sc. and M.Sc.
degrees from the Federal University of Juiz de Fora
(UFJF), Juiz de Fora, Brazil, in 2001 and 2003,
respectively, and the D.Sc. degree from the Federal
University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de
Janeiro, Brazil, in 2009.
He has been an Energy Researcher at EPE-
Brazilian Energy Research Company since 2006.
His general research interests are in the area of
power system analysis, optimization, transmission,
and distribution systems planning.
Carmen L. T. Borges (S’97–M’99–SM’07) re-
ceived the B.Sc. degree from the Rio de Janeiro State
University (UERJ), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in 1984
and the M.Sc. and D.Sc. degrees from the Federal
University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE/UFRJ) in 1991
and 1998, respectively.
She has been a Professor of electrical engineering
at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro since 1996.
Her general research interests are in the area of com-
puter methods for power system analysis, optimiza-
tion, reliability, and high performance computing.