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(000660 KS)
1Q ends on a promising note
Target Price (12M, W) 38,000 We foresee sharp earnings growth ahead in 2Q. We adjusted up our 2Q estimates to
revenue of W3.2tr (+16% QoQ; +23% YoY), operating profit of W580bn (+83% QoQ; vs.
Share Price (04/24/13, W) 29,100 our previous estimate of W400bn), and an OP margin of 18.0%. We see a number of
positive catalysts supporting 2Q earnings growth: 1) higher PC DRAM prices, 2) stronger
Expected Return 31% demand for mobile DRAM and embedded NAND, 3) rising server DRAM prices, 4) cost
advantages from technology migration, and 5) easing raw material (wafer) costs on yen
depreciation.
OP (13F, Wbn) 2,154
Catalysts: Mobile DRAM market to tighten from 2Q
Consensus OP (13F, Wbn) 1,725
The largest driver behind SK Hynix’s 1Q earnings growth was a faster-than-expected rise
EPS Growth (13F, %) TTB in PC DRAM prices. We think the biggest earnings catalyst for 2Q will be shipment
Market EPS Growth (13F, %) 20.0 growth of mobile DRAM.
P/E (13F, x) 11.7
Market P/E (13F, x) 9.3 In our view, the Galaxy S4’s adoption of a 2GB LPDDR3 mobile memory underscores two
KOSPI 1,935.31 major shifts underway in the mobile DRAM market: 1) the sharp increase in average
content per device (from 1GB to 2GB), and 2) a change in the core chip used in devices
Market Cap (Wbn) 20,200 (from LPDDR2 to LPDDR3). We believe Samsung Electronics’ (SEC) growing internal
Shares Outstanding (mn) 694 demand for mobile DRAM will lead to a tighter market across the board (including multi-
Free Float (%) 74.2 chip packages) beginning at the end of 2Q.
Foreign Ownership (%) 28.1
Beta (12M) 1.43 As for embedded NAND, we do not expect any significant content growth akin to that of
52-Week Low (W) 20,100 mobile DRAM. But we still project the market to remain balanced on the back of: 1)
52-Week High (W) 29,700 smartphone shipment growth, 2) disciplined capacity expansion and supply, and 3)
stronger SSD demand.
(%) 1M 6M 12M
Absolute 2.8 21.3 6.8 Valuation: 2013F OP of W2.15tr; Raise TP to W38,000
Relative 3.5 20.1 8.2 We revise up our target price on SK Hynix to W38,000 (from W36,000), using a 2013F
Share price
P/B of 2.6x and P/E of 15x. We raised our 2013F operating profit by 23% to W2.15tr
110 KOSPI (from W1.75tr), resulting in a 2013F ROE of 16.6% (vs. 14.4% previously). We thus do
100 not think current valuations (2013F P/B of 2x and P/E of 11.7x) are stretched.
90
80 SK Hynix has gotten off to a very good start this year. We estimate 2013 annual EBITDA
70 at W5.3tr. Even if the company spends W3.5tr on capex, this would still leave it with a
60 free cash flow (FCF) of W1.5tr. And we could even see a higher FCF of W2tr in 2014
4/12 8/12 12/12 4/13 given conservative capex and the projected robust growth in mobile DRAM. If so, we
believe the current up cycle could last much longer than expected.
Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd.
FY (Dec.) 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13F 12/14F 12/15F
Semiconductor Revenue (Wbn) 12,106 10,396 10,162 12,828 14,280 14,626
OP (Wbn) 2,975 369 -227 2,154 2,812 2,288
James Song
OP margin (%) 24.6 3.6 -2.2 16.8 19.7 15.6
+822-768-3722
james.song@dwsec.com NP (Wbn) 2,621 -57 -159 1,734 2,387 1,929
EPS (W) 4,440 -96 -233 2,498 3,439 2,778
Joon-ho Jang
ROE (%) 39.2 -0.7 -1.8 16.6 19.6 13.9
+822-768-3241
P/E (x) 5.4 - - 11.7 8.5 10.5
joonho.jang@dwsec.com
P/B (x) 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.5
Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests
Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates
Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S.
April 25, 2013 SK Hynix
Company Snapshot
Valuation summary
Figure 1. 12-month forward P/B band Figure 2. Quarterly OP and share price
(W'000) (Wbn) Quarterly OP (L) (W'000)
50 1,200 SK Hynix's share price (R) 50
2.4x 800
40 40
2.0x 400
30 30
1.6x
0
20 1.2x 20
-400
0.8x
10 10
-800
0 -1,200 0
04 07 10 13
13F 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 F
Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates
Figure 3. Annual operating profit and OP margin Figure 4. Quarterly operating profit and OP margin
(Wtr) Anuual OP (L) OP margin (R) (Wbn) Quarterly OP (L) OP margin (R)
4 40 1,200 60
3.09
2.81
800 40
2.15
2 1.87 20
20
400
0.26 0.37
0
0 0 0
-0.12 -0.23 -20
-400
-40
-2 -20
-2.20
-800 -60
Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates
Table 6. Major metrics and forecasts for the DRAM division (Wbn, %, mn units, US$ )
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13P 2Q13F 3Q13F 4Q13F 11 12 13F 14F
Revenue (Wbn) 1,695 1,974 1,696 1,875 1,975 2,298 2,512 2,324 7,418 7,241 9,109 9,921
Operating profit (Wbn) -286 98 -11 -15 283 484 539 494 -284 -214 1,800 2,373
OP margin (%) -16.9% 5.0% -0.7% -0.8% 14.4% 21.1% 21.4% 21.2% -3.8% -3.0% 19.8% 23.9%
Shipments (1Gb eq. mn) 1,772 1,896 1,801 2,305 2,374 2,571 2,718 2,763 5,156 7,773 10,426 13,553
Bit growth (% chg.) 9.0% 7.0% -5.0% 28.0% 3.0% 8.3% 5.7% 1.7% 51.3% 50.8% 34.1% 30.0%
ASP (1Gb eq. US$) 0.87 0.93 0.86 0.77 0.80 0.82 0.85 0.77 1.33 0.85 0.81 0.67
ASP (% chg.) -10.1% 7.0% -8.2% -10.4% 3.9% 3.2% 3.4% -9.0% -47.3% -36.2% -4.8% -18.0%
Note: Under consolidated K-IFRS
Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates
Table 7. Major metrics and forecasts for the NAND division (Wbn, %, mn units, US$ )
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13P 2Q13F 3Q13F 4Q13F 11 12 13F 14F
Revenue (Wbn) 693 658 703 843 806 931 1,016 966 2,977 2,921 3,719 4,360
Operating profit (Wbn) 19 -102 -7 85 34 96 125 98 653 -5 354 439
OP margin (%) 2.7% -15.5% -1.0% 10.1% 4.2% 10.4% 12.3% 10.2% 21.9% -0.2% 9.5% 10.1%
Shipments (16Gb eq. mn) 325 354 372 442 438 526 574 610 1,017 1,492 2,148 3,329
Bit growth (% chg.) 2.0% 9.0% 5.0% 19.0% -1.0% 20.2% 9.2% 6.1% 93.8% 46.7% 43.9% 55.0%
ASP(16Gb eq. US$) 1.51 1.23 1.28 1.36 1.29 1.30 1.32 1.17 2.41 1.34 1.27 1.01
ASP(% chg.) -19.0% -18.4% 4.2% 6.0% -5.1% 0.8% 2.0% -11.5% -40.8% -44.4% -5.4% -20.0%
Note: Under consolidated K-IFRS
Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates
40
800
20
400
0
0
-20
-400
-40
-800 -60
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13F 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13F
Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates
Figure 7. Annual EBITDA and EBITDA margin Figure 8. FCF (EBITDA - capex)
(Wtr) Annual EBITDA (L) (Wtr) EBITDA - capex
8 EBITDA margin (R) 60 8 EBITDA
Capex
6.4 50 6
6.1 6.0
6
5.3
40 4
4 3.6 30 2
3.0 3.0
20 0
2
10 -2
0.6
0 0 -4
08 09 10 11 12 13F 14F 15F 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13F 14F 15F
Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates
Figure 9. Annual DRAM bit growth and ASP growth Figure 10. Annual NAND bit growth and ASP growth
(%) DRAM bit growth (YoY) (%) NAND bit growth (YoY)
80 ASP growth (YoY) 160 ASP growth (YoY)
-4.8
-18.0 0
-40 -5.4
-36.2 -40.8
-40 -20.0
-47.3 -29.9
-44.4
-80 -80
10 11 12 13F 14F 10 11 12 13F 14F
Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates
Figure 11. 2Gb PC DRAM price trend and outlook Figure 12. 64Gb NAND MLC price trend and outlook
(US$) DDR3 2Gb spot price (US$) NAND 64Gb MLC spot price
3.0 DDR3 2Gb contract price KDB Daewoo forecasts KDB Daewoo forecasts
16 NAND 64Gb MLC contract price
Quarterly avg. contract price Quarterly avg. contract price
14
2.5
12
2.0
10
1.5 8
6
1.0
4
0.5 Elpida bankruptcy Expansion of mobile DRAM proportion
2 SEC: Reduced capacity
for major memory players
Toshiba: Reduced capacity (30%)
0.0 0
1/11 7/11 1/12 7/12 1/13 7/13F
7/13 1/14F
1/14 11.1 11.7 12.1 12.7 13.1 13.7
13.7F 14.1
14.1F
Source: DRAMeXchange, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Source: DRAMeXchange, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates
As of the publication date, Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. has acted as a liquidity provider for the shares of 30,000
SK Hynix, and other than this, Daewoo Securities has no other special interests in the covered companies.
20,000
As of the publication date, Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. issued equity-linked warrants with SK Hynix as an
underlying asset, and other than this, Daewoo Securities has no other special interests in the covered 10,000
companies.
0
4/11 10/11 4/12 10/12 4/13
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