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Chapter one
Introduction
The economic theories you have learnt in various economics courses suggest that the existence
of many relationships among economic variables. For instance, in microeconomics you have
learnt demand and supply models in which the quantities demanded and supplied of a good
depend on its price (i.e. quantity of X is depends on price of X). In macroeconomics, you have
studied ‗investment function‘ to explain the amount of aggregate investment in the economy as
the rate of interest changes; and ‗consumption function‘ that relates aggregate consumption to
the level of aggregate disposable income.
Each of such specifications involves a relationship among two or more variables in the economy.
As economists, we might be interested in questions such as: If price of one commodity changes
by certain magnitude, by how much would quantity demanded for a commodity changes? Also,
given that we know the value of one variable; can we forecast or predict the corresponding value
of another? The purpose of studying the relationships among economic variables and attempting
to answer questions of the type raised here help us to understand the real economic world we live
in. The field of knowledge which helps us to carry out such measurement and evaluation of
economic theories in empirical terms is known as econometrics.
What is Econometrics?
Different scholars defined econometrics in slightly different ways:
Gujarati (2003): Econometrics may be defined as the social science in which the tools of
economic theory, mathematics, and statistical inference are applied to the analysis of economic
phenomena. Thus, it is concerned with empirical determination of economic laws.
Maddala (1992) defined econometrics as the application of statistical and mathematical methods
to the analysis of economic data, with a purpose of giving empirical content to economic theories
and verifying them or refuting them.
According to Woodridge (2004) econometrics is based upon statistical methods for estimating
economic relationships, testing economic theories, and evaluating and implementing government
1.2 Models
A model is a simplified representation of a real-world process. For instance, saying that the
quantity demanded of oranges depends on the price of oranges keeping other things being
constant is a simplified representation. Because, there are other variable that determine demand
for oranges. In other words, demand for orange is negatively related with price of orange holding
other factors constant. Why we hold other factors constant? Model helps us to easily understand,
communicate, and test empirically with data. It is important to explain complex real-world
phenomena.
Example a. Keynes stated that ―Consumption increases as income increases, but not as much as
the increase in income‖. It means that ―The marginal propensity to consume (MPC)
for a unit change in income is greater than zero but less than unit‖
b. The law of demand states that there is an inverse relationship between quantity
demanded and own price. In other words demand curve is negatively sloped keeping
other factors constant.
c. the law of supply describes that as price of a particular commodity increase, ceteris
paribus, quantity supplied of that particular commodity increase.
2. Specification of the mathematical model
Although, Keynesian consumption theory postulates positive relationship between consumption
and disposable income, it doesn‘t specify precise form of functional relationship between them.
Mathematical economists might suggest the following consumption function:
(1.1)
Mathematical model in (1.1) is of limited interest to Econometricians since it assumes that the
existence of an exact or deterministic relationship between variables. However, the relationships
between economic variables are generally inexact. To allow for the inexact relationships between
economic variables, the econometrician would modify the deterministic consumption function in
(1.1) as follows:
(1.2)
Where, U is unobservable disturbance term or error term which is a random or stochastic
variable. The disturbance term (U) may capture all unobservable factors (variables not included
in the model) that can affect consumption. Equation (1.2) is an example of econometric model
technically it is linear regression model. The econometric model hypothesize that dependent
Y .
. .
. . .
.
U . .
. .
..
. .
.
.
4. Obtaining Data
To estimate parameters of econometric model in (1.2) we need data. For example, data in billion
dollar on Y (personal consumption expenditure) and X (gross domestic product) of hypothetical
country from 1980 to 1991are presented in the following table.
Table 1.1 personal consumption expenditure and gross domestic product in Billion USD
Year 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991
2447.1 2476.9 2503.7 2619.4 2746.1 2865.8 2969.1 3052.2 3162.4 3223.3 3260.4 3240.8
Y
3776.3 3843.1 3760.3 3906.6 4148.5 4279.8 4404.5 4539.9 4718.6 4838 4877.5 4821
X
6. Hypothesis Testing
Assuming that the estimated model is a reasonably good approximation of reality, we have to
develop suitable criteria to find out whether the estimates obtained are in accord with the
expectation of the theory.
Are the estimates accords with the expectations of the theory that is being tested? That is,
is MPC < 1 statistically significant? If so, it may support Keynes‘ theory.
7. Forecasting or Prediction
If the estimated model does not refute the hypothesis or theory under consideration, we may use
it to predict the future value(s ) of the dependent variable (Y) given future value(s) of
explanatory or predictor variable (X).
With given future value(s) of X, what is the future value(s) of Y?
Mathematical model
Econometric Model
Data
Hypothesis testing
YES
NO
Forecasting and prediction
Table 1.2 Partial List of hypothetical cross sectional data collected at one period.
Person Wage Educ Exper female married
1 3.1 11 2 1 0
2 3.24 12 22 1 1
3 3.00 11 2 0 0
4 6.00 8 44 0 1
5 5.30 12 7 0 1
……… ……… ……… ……… ……… ………
.
B. Time-series data: A time series data set consists of observations on a variable or several
variables over time at certain regular time interval. Examples of time series data include stock
prices, money supply, consumer price index, gross domestic product, annual homicide rates, and
automobile sales figures. Because past events can influence future events and lags in behaviour
are prevalent in the social sciences, time is an important dimension in a time series data set.
Unlike the arrangement of cross-sectional data, the chronological ordering of observations in a
time series conveys potentially important information.
Example,
C. A panel or longitudinal data: consists of a time series for each cross-sectional member in the
data set. A panel data set contains repeated observations over the same units (individuals,
households, firms), collected over a number of periods. Data sets that have both cross-sectional
and time series dimensions are being used more and more often in empirical research. Multiple
regression methods can still be used on such data sets. In fact, data with cross-sectional and time
series aspects can often shed light on important policy questions.
Consider having data on n units —individuals, firms, countries, or whatever —over T periods. The
data might be income and other characteristics of n persons surveyed each of T years, the output
and costs of n firms collected over T months, or the health and behavioral characteristics of n
patients collected over T years. In panel datasets, we write for the value of x for unit i at time t.
To collect panel data sometimes called longitudinal data we follow the same individuals, families,
firms, cities, states, or whatever, across time. For example, a panel data set on individual wages,
hours, education, and other factors is collected by randomly selecting people from a population at a
given point in time. Then, these same people are interviewed at several subsequent points in time.
This gives us data on wages, hours, education, and so on, for the same group of people in different
years.
D. Pooled Cross Section data: Is a randomly sampled cross sections of individuals at different
points in time For example, suppose that two cross-sectional household surveys are taken in the
Ethiopia, one in 2005 and one in 2008. In 2005, a random sample of households is surveyed for
variables such as income, savings, family size, and so on. In 2008, a new random sample of
households is taken using the same survey questions. In order to increase our sample size, we can
form a pooled cross section by combining the two years survey. Because random samples are
taken in each year, it would be a fluke if the same household appeared in the sample during both
years.
E. Non-experimental vs. experimental data
a. Non-experimental data are obtained from observations of a system that is not subject to
experimental control
b. experimental data are obtained from controlled experiments in laboratory
F. Qualitative versus quantitative data
The data may be quantitative (e.g. exchange rates, stock prices, number of shares outstanding,
GDP, inflation,..,) or qualitative (e.g. gender, color, race, religion, etc).
Review questions
How would you define econometrics?
How does it differ from mathematical economics and statistics?
Describe the main steps involved in any econometrics research.
Differentiate between economic and econometric model.
What are the goals of econometrics?
Describe the structure of economic data.
What are the sources of economic data?
Explain problems associated with economic data
What is the difference among panel data, pooled cross-sectional data and time
series data?
What does mean by random sample? Why we are interested in it?
Suppose you want to investigate student class attendance on their performance in
final exam for econometrics course. How do you collect data to achieve your
goal? Are there any other factors that can affect student performance? Do you
think ceteris paribus assumption is important in this investigation? Why?