ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS

University of Southeastern Philippines

COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING
Obrero, Davao City

MATH 212
ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS

DALIA M. RECONALLA, Ph.D

August 2020

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Faculty Information:

Name: Dalia M. Reconalla

Email: dalia.reconalla@usep.edu.ph
Contact Number: 0906-209-6611
Office: College of Engineering
Contact Number: (082) 224-3334
Consultation Hours: By appointment - may be arranged through:
 Official email
 Facebook messenger/Facebook group chat
 Text or call

Getting help

For academic concerns (College/Adviser - Contact details)

For administrative concerns (College Dean - Contact details)
For UVE concerns (KMD - Contact details)
For health and wellness concerns (UAGC, HSD and OSAS - Contact
details)

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

CONTENTS PAGE

Cover page ………………………………… 1

Faculty Information ……………………………….... 2

Table of Contents ………………………………… 3

Module 2 Overview ………………………………… 4

Module 2 Outcomes……………..………………….. 4

Lesson 1 ………..……………………………….. 5

Application 1…………………………………………. 17

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MODULE OVERVIEW

This module will introduce you to events and

probability properties from which you will learn how to
numerically quantify the outcomes into a random variable
and use the random variable to create mathematical
functions to find probabilities of the random variable. This
module covers four lessons as follows:
o Lesson 1: Rules of Probability
o Lesson 2: Discrete Probability Distribution
o Lesson 3: Continuous Probability Distribution
o Lesson 4. Joint Probability Distribution

MODULE OUTCOME

At the completion of the module, you should be able to:

o Apply the fundamental principles and concept of

probability in determining probability of the value of a
discrete and continuous random variable.

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Learning Outcome:

o Understand the different properties and rules of probability.

o Determine the probability of occurrence of event.

Time Frame: Week 4

Introduction

Probability theory is recognized as one of the most interesting and also one of
the most useful areas of mathematics.

Abstraction
1.1 Probability Concepts

When the term chance experiment is used in a probability setting, we mean

something different from what was meant by the term experiment.

When a single coin is tossed, there are two possible outcomes. The coin can
land with its heads side up or its tails side up. The selection of a single card from a
well-mixed standard deck may result in the ace of spades, the five of diamonds, or
any one of the other 50 possibilities. Situations such as these are referred to as chance
experiments.

Before we describe the concepts of probability, the following terms are defined:

Definition 1.1.
A chance experiment is any activity or situation in which there is uncertainty
about which of two or more possible outcomes will result.

The collection of all possible outcomes of a chance experiment is the sample

space for the experiment.

An event is a subset of a sample space.

Each outcome in a sample space is called an element or a member of the sample

space, or simply a sample point.

Illustration 1.Consider the experiment of tossing a die. If we are interested

in the number that shows on the top face, the sample space is S1 = {1, 2, 3,
4, 5, 6}.

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If we are interested only in whether the number is even or odd, the sample
space is simply S2 = {even, odd}.

In some experiments, it is helpful to list the elements of the sample space systematically by
means of a tree diagram.

Example 1. Suppose that three items are selected at random from a box containing
items from a manufacturing process. Each item is inspected and classified defective,
D, or nondefective, N. Show the sample spaces and elements of the sample space by
constructing a tree diagram.

Solution:

The various paths along the branches of the tree give the distinct sample points from
the tree diagram( see Figure 1). Let DDD be the starting path, indicating the
possibility that all three items inspected are defective. As we proceed along the other
paths, we see that the sample space is
S = {DDD, DDN, DND, DNN, NDD, NDN, NND, NNN}.

Figure 1. Tree diagram for Example 1

Source: Essentials of Probability and Statistics for Engineers
& Scientists by Walpole, Myers, Myers & Ye, 2013

Sample spaces with a large or infinite number of sample points are best
described by a statement or rule method.

Illustration 1. If the possible outcomes of an experiment are the set of

provinces in Mindanao with a population over half a million, our sample space is
written
S = {x | x is a provinces in Mindanao with a population over half a million},
which reads “S is the set of all x such that x is a city with a population over half
million.” The vertical bar is read “such that.”

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Illustration 3. From Example 1, suppose we are interested in the event B

that the number of defectives is greater than 1. This will occur if the outcome
is an element of the subset B = {DDN, DND, NDD, DDD} of the sample space S.

Illustration 4. Let R be the event that a red card is selected from an

ordinary deck of 52 playing cards, and let S be the entire deck. Then R‟ is the
event that the card selected from the deck is not a red card but a black card.
Then all the black cards correspond to a different event, also a subset of S,
which is called the complement of the set of red cards.

Definition 1.2

The complement of an event A with respect to S is the subset of all elements of S

that are not in A. We denote the complement of A by the symbol A.

Illustration 5. Let A experiment a even number occurs and B the event that a
number greater than 3 shows. Then the subsets A = {2, 4, 6} and B = {4, 5, 6} are
subsets of the same sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Note that both A and B
will occur on a given toss if the outcome is an element of the subset {4, 6}, which
is just the intersection of A and B. If either A or B occurring or both A and B
occurs, such an event, called the union of A and B, will occur if the outcome is an
element of the subset {2, 4, 5, 6}.

Example 2.

Let A = {a, e, i, o, u} and B = {l, r, s, t}; then it follows that A ∩ B = φ. That is A

and B have no elements in common and, therefore, cannot both simultaneously
occur.

For certain statistical experiments it is by no means unusual to define two

events, A and B, that cannot both occur simultaneously. The events A and B are then
said to be mutually exclusive.

Definition 1.3.
The intersection of two events A and B, denoted by the symbol A ∩ B, is the
event containing all elements that are common to A an

The union of the two events A and B, denoted by the symbol A∪ B, is the
event containing all the elements that belong to A or B or both.

Two events A and B are mutually exclusive, or disjoint, if A ∩ B = φ, that

is, if A and B have no elements in common.
The relationship between events and the corresponding sample space can be
illustrated graphically by means of Venn diagrams.

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Referring to Figure 1.2 we see that

A ∩ B = regions 1 and 2,
B ∩ C = regions 1 and 3,
A ∪ C = regions 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 7,
B ∩ A = regions 4 and 7,
A ∩ B ∩ C = region 1,
(A ∪ B) ∩ C = regions 2, 6, and 7, and so forth.

Figure 2 Events represented by various regions.

Source: Essentials of Probability and Statistics for Engineers &
Scientists by Walpole, Myers, Myers & Ye, 2013

Example 3. Suppose a card is selected at random from a deck of 52 playing

cards and observe whether the following events occur:
A: the card is red,
B: the card is the jack, queen, or king of diamonds,
C: the card is an ace.
Show in Venn diagram the event A ∩ C consists of only the two red aces.

Solution:

Letting S be the sample space, Figure 1.3 show the Venn diagram of the events.

Figure 3. Events represented by

various regions.

Source: Essentials of Probability and

Statistics for Engineers & Scientists by
Walpole, Myers, Myers & Ye, 2013

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Results that can be verified by means of Venn diagrams, are as follows:

Definition 1.4

1. A ∩ φ = φ.
2. A ∪ φ = A.
3. A ∩ A = φ.
4. A ∪ A = S.
5. S = φ.
6. φ = S.
7. (A) = A.
8. (A ∩ B) = A ∪ B.
9. (A ∪ B) = A ∩ B.

1.2 Counting Techniques

Frequently, we are interested in a sample space that contains as elements all

possible orders or arrangements of a group of objects.

For example, we may want to know how many different arrangements are possible for
sitting 6 people around a table, or we may ask how many different orders are possible
for drawing 2 lottery tickets from a total of 20. The different arrangements are called
permutations.

Definition 1.5.
A permutation is an arrangement of all or part of a set of objects.
The number of permutations of n objects is n!.

Illustration 5.
The number of permutations of the four letters a, b, c, and d will be 4! = 24.

Illustration 6.
Now consider the number of permutations, in Illustration 1, that are possible by
taking two letters at a time from four. These would be ab, ac, ad, ba, bc, bd, ca,
cb, cd, da, db, and dc. Consider that we have two positions to fill, with n1 = 4
choices for the first and then n2 = 3 choices for the second, for a total of n1 n2
= (4)(3) = 12 permutations.

In general, n distinct objects taken r at a time can be arranged in

n(n - 1)(n - 2) · · · (n - r + 1) ways. We represent this product by the symbol

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Definition 1.6

The number of permutations of subsets of r elements selected from a set of n

different elements is

𝑃𝑟𝑛 𝑛 × (𝑛 ) × (𝑛 2) × … × (𝑛 𝑟+ )
𝑛
𝑃𝑟𝑛
(𝑛 𝑟)

Example 4.
In one year, three awards (leadership, research, and service) will be given to a
class of 25 graduate students in an engineering department. If each student can
receive at most one award, how many possible selections are there?

Solution: Since the awards are distinguishable, it is a permutation problem. The

total number of sample points is

( )
where n =25 and r = 3 so that

25 ( )
=

Example 5.
In how many ways can 4 boys and 3 girls be seated in a row of 5 chairs?

Solution: Since the problem relates to an arrangement of distinct element, it is a

permutation problem. The total number of sample points is given by
( )
where n = 7 and r = 5, therefore

( )
= = 2,520

Permutations that occur by arranging objects in a circle are called circular

permutations. Two circular permutations are not considered different unless
corresponding objects in the two arrangements are preceded or followed by a different
object as we proceed in a clockwise direction.

If among n objects, n1 are identical, n2 others are identical, still n3 others are
identical, and so on, then the number of distinct permutations of the objects taken all
together is

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Definition 1.7.
The number of permutations of n objects arranged in a circle is (n - 1)!.

The number of distinct permutations of n things of which n1 are of one kind, n2 of

a second kind, . . . , nk of a kth kind is
𝑛
𝑛 𝑛 𝑛 𝑛𝑘

Definition 1.8.
The number of ways of partitioning a set of n objects into r cells with n1 elements in
the first cell, n2 elements in the second, and so forth, is

𝒏 𝒏
(𝒏 𝒏 𝒏 𝒏𝒓 )= 𝒏𝟏
𝟏 𝟐 𝟑 𝒏𝟐 𝒏𝒓

where 𝒏𝟏 + 𝒏𝟐 + 𝒏𝒓 = n

Example 6.
In how many ways can 8 people be seated at a round table?

Solution: From definition 2.3, P = (n – 1)! = (8 – 1)! = 7! = 5,040

Example 7.
In how many ways can 7 graduate students be assigned to 1 triple and 2 double
hotel rooms during a conference?

Solution: The total number of possible partitions would be

P=( )= = 210
2 2
Example 8.
How many different letter arrangements can be made from the letters in the
word CALCULUS?

Solution:
The letters, C, L and U , each appear 2 times, A once , and S once. Using the same
argument in Definition 2.4, letting 2( number times letter C occurs),
2(number of times letter L occurs) 2(number of times U occurs), and and
both equal to 1, for letters A and S occurs once. Then we have

( )= = 5,040

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Another counting problem of interest is the number of subsets of r elements that can
be selected from a set of n elements. Here, order is not important. These are called
combinations.

Definition 1.9.
The number of combinations of 𝑛 distinct objects taken 𝑟 at a time is
𝒏 𝒏
(𝑪 ) 𝒏𝑪𝒓 𝑪(𝒏 𝒓)
𝒓 𝒓 (𝒏 𝒓)

Example 9.
A printed circuit board has eight different locations in which a component can
be placed. If five identical components are to be placed on the board, how many
different designs are possible?

Solution:
Each design is a subset of size five from the eight locations that are to contain the
components. Applying Definition 2.5, the number of possible designs is a
combination 8 distinct objects taken 5 at a time is

= ( )
= ( )
= = 56

Example 10. There are four engineers and three social worker will a committee.
Find the number of committees of three that can be formed consisting of two
engineers and 1 social worker.

Solution:
Let be the number of combinations of 4 engineers take 2 at a time
= be the number of combinations of 3 engineers take 1 at a time

So, =4 = ( )
= = 6 and

=3 = ( )
= = 3 thus the number of committees is found to be
= 6 (3) = 18

1.3 Rules of Probability

Probabilities are real numbers between 0 and 1.

• If an event is certain to occur, its probability is 1.
• If an event is certain not to occur, its probability is 0.

1.3.1 Addition Rule

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Events, like sets, can be combined to produce new events.

• A ∪ B denotes the event that event A or event B (or both) occur when the experiment
is performed.
• A ∩ B denotes the event that both A and B occur together

Types of events

There are two types of events you will need to be able to identify and work with:
mutually exclusive events and independent events.

a. Mutually Exclusive Events

Mutually exclusive events are events that by definition cannot happen together.

For example:
1. When tossing a coin, the events ‘head’ and ‘tail’ are mutually exclusive;
2. When testing a switch ‘operate’ and ‘fail’ are mutually exclusive; and
3. When testing the tensile strength of a piece of wire, ‘hold’ and
‘snap’ are mutually exclusive. In such cases, the probability of both events
occurring together must be zero.
4. Complement Rule: P(A) = 1 – P(A does not occur)

If an event is guaranteed to happen, then the number of different ways that it

could happen must be the same as n(S).

Hence, using the usual set theory notation for events A and B, we may write:
P(A ∩ B) = 0, provided that A and B are mutually exclusive events.

Definition 1.10. The Addition Law of Probability-Simple Case

If two events A and B are mutually exclusive then P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)

Definition 1.11. The Addition Law of Probability-General Case

If two events are A and B then P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)

If A ∩ B = ∅, i.e. A and B are mutually exclusive, then

P(A ∩ B) = P(∅) = 0, and this general expression reduces to the simpler case.

This rule can be extended to three or more events, for example:

P(A ∪ B ∪ C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(A ∩ B) - P(A ∩ C) - P(B ∩ C) +

P(A ∩ B ∩ C)
Example 11.
A card is selected at random from a deck of 52 playing cards. What is the
probability that the card is either a diamond or a ten?

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Solution:
Let A is the event {a diamond is selected} and
B is the event {a ten is selected} then,
P(A) = and P(B) = . The intersection event A ∩ B consists of only one member -
the ten of diamonds - which gets counted twice hence P(A ∩ B) =
Therefore P(A ∪ B) = +
Example 12.

A box contains 20 balls, 3 of which are red, 6 are green, 4 are colored blue, 2 are
colored white and 5 are colored yellow. One ball is selected at random. Find the
probabilities of the following events.
(a) the ball is either red or green
(b) the ball is not blue
(c) the ball is either red or white or blue. (Hint: consider the complementary event.)

Solution

Note that a ball has only one color, designated by the letters R, G, B, W, Y .
(a) P(R ∪ G) = P(R) + P(G) = + .
(b) P(B’) = 1 P(B) = 1
(c) The complementary event is G ∪ Y , P(G ∪ Y ) = +
Hence P(R ∪ W ∪ B) = 1 -

Example 13. The diagram shows a simplified circuit in which two independent
components a and b are connected in parallel.

The circuit functions if either or both of the components are operational. It is

known that if A is the event „component a is operating‟ and B is the event
„component b is operating‟ then P(A) = 0.99, P(B) = 0.98 and P(A ∩ B) = 0.9702.
Find the probability that the circuit is functioning.

Solution:
The probability that the circuit is functioning is P(A ∪ B). In words: either a or b or
both must be functioning if the circuit is to function.

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)

= 0.99 + 0.98 - 0.9702 = 0.9998

b. Conditional Probability: Dependent Events

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Consider the performance of an experiment in which the outcome is a member of an

event A. We can therefore say that the event A has occurred. What is the probability
that B then occurs? That is what is P(B|A)?
Definition 1.12. Conditional Probability-Simple Case

𝑃(𝐴 𝐵)
P(B│A) = or equivalently , P(A) > 0
𝑃(𝐴)
P(A∩ B)) = P(B│A) P(A)

For any three events

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

Example 13. A box contains five 10 Ω resistors and ten Ω resistors. The
resistors are all unmarked and are of the same physical size.
.
a. One resistor is picked at random from the box; find the probability
that:
i. It is a 10 Ω resistor.
ii. It is a 30 Ω resistor.
b. At the start, two resistors are selected from the box. Find the
probability that:
i. Both are 10 Ω resistors.
ii. The first is a 10 Ω resistor and the second is a 30 Ω resistor.
iii. Both are 30 Ω resistors

Solution:
a. i.) The box contains 15 resistors, and there is an equally likely chance of any
resistor being selected, then
P(10 Ω) = =

ii) P(30 Ω) =

b. i) As there are five 10 Ω resistors in the box that contains a total of 15

resistors, and there is an equally likely chance of any resistor being selected,
then

P(first selected is a 10 Ω resistor) =

If the first resistor selected was a 10 Ω one, then when the second resistor is
selected, there are only four 10 Ω resistors left in the box which now contains
4 + 10 = 14 resistors. Hence,

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P(second selected is also a 10 Ω resistor) = , and

P(both are 10 Ω resistors) = =

ii) P(first selected is a 10 Ω resistor) =

If the first resistor selected was a 10 Ω one, then when the second resistor is
selected, there are still ten 30 Ω resistors left in the box which now contains
14 resistors. Hence,

P(second selected is a 30 Ω resistor) = and

P(first was a 10 Ω resistor and second was a 30 Ω resistor) = =

(iii) As there are ten 30 Ω resistors in the box that contains a total of 15
resistors, and there is an equally likely chance of any resistor being selected,
then

P(first selected is a 30 Ω resistor) = =

P(second selected is also a 30 Ω resistor) =
P(both are 30 Ω resistors) = =

c. Independent Events

If the occurrence of one event A does not affect, nor is affected by, the
occurrence of another event B then we say that A and B are independent events.

 Two events are independent if any one of the following equivalent statements
is true:
(1) ( ) ( )
(2) ( ) ( )
(3) ( ) ( ) ( )
Equivalently, ( ) ( ) ( ).

Definition 1.13. The Multiplication Rule

If A and B are independent events then P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B)

‘The probability of independent events A and B occurring is the product of

the probabilities of the events occurring separately.

For Multiple Events

The events … are independent if and only if for any subset of these events
… ,
( … ) ( )× ( ) ×…× ( )

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Bayes’Theorem
Baye’s Theorem: Let A A A . . ., An be a mutually exclusive events whose
union is S. Let B be an event such that P(B) ≠ 0. Then for any of the events
Aj j = 1, 2, 3, . . . , n
P(B Aj )P(Aj )
P(Aj |B) = n ;
i= P(B Ai ) P(Ai )

p(B A )P(A ) P(B A )

P(Ai |B) = P(B A =
)P(A )+P(B A )P(A ) P(B)
Also,P(B) = P(B A ) ∪ P(B A )
and P(B) = P(B A ) + (B A )

Example 14: Porcelain mugs are shipped from the manufacturing company to a store. The
probability that a mug will be broken, cracked, or in good condition upon arrival is 0.13, 0.20,
and 0.58, respectively. Mugs are shipped from China to other countries. Experience shows
that if a mug is broken, the probability that it is from China is 0.02; if a mug is cracked, the
probability that it is from China is 0.23; and if in good condition, the probability that it is
from China is 0.75. When a shipment of mugs arrives from China, what is the probability
that the mug is cracked?

Solution:
Let C = event that the mug comes from China
= broken; = cracked; = in good condition
p(C) = p(C ) + p(C ) + p(C )
= ( ) ( )+ ( ) ( )+ ( ) ( )
= 0.13(0.02) + 0.20(0.23) + 0.58(0.75) = 0.4836
So , the probability that a particular mug which is known to have come from China is
cracked is
( ) ( )
p( |C) = ( ) = = 0.0951

Application: Exercise #1

1. Given the digits 1, 2, 5, 6, and 9.

a. How many 3-digit numbers can be formed from these digits if no two
digits are to be the same?
b. Of the numbers formed in (a) how many are even? How many are odd?
How many are greater than 600?
c. How many numbers can be formed if digit may be repeated?

2. How many different ways can three red, four yellow, and two blue bulbs be
arranged in a string of Christmas tree lights with nine sockets?
3. New designs for a wastewater treatment tank have proposed three possible
shapes, four possible sizes, three locations for input valves, and four locations
for output valves. How many different product designs are possible?

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4. The following people are in a room: 5 men aged 21 and over, 4 men under 21,
6 women aged 21 and over, and 3 women under 21. One person is chosen at
random. The following events are defined:
A = {the person is aged 21 and over}
B= {the person is below 21}
C = {the person is male}
D = { the person is female}.
Determine the following:
a. P(B ∪ )
b. P( )

5. A card is drawn at random from a deck of 52 well shuffled playing cards.

What is the probability that it is an ace or a face card?
6. In a single throw of two dice, what is the probability that neither a double nor
a sum of 9 will appear?
7. A central heating installation and maintenance engineer keeps a record of the
causes of failure of systems he is called out to repair. The causes of failure are
classified as ‘electrical’, ‘gas’, or in some cases ‘other’. A summary of the
records kept of failures involving either gas or electrical faults is as follows:

Electrical
Yes No
Yes 53 11
Gas No 23 13
a. Find the probability that failure involves gas given that it involves electricity.
b. Find the probability that failure involves electricity given that it involves gas.

Closure
Well done! You have just finished Lesson 1 of this module. Should there
be some parts of the lesson which you need clarification, please ask your tutor during
your face-to-face or on-line interactions.
Now if you are ready, please proceed to Lesson 2 of this module which will
discuss

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References

Broto, A.S. (2007). Simplified Approach to Inferential Statistics(1st ed.). National .

Philippines.

Carambas, Zenaida U(2011). Basic probability and Statistics. Valencia Educational

Supply. Baguio City

Peck, R., Olsen, C. and Devore, J.L. (2012): Introduction to Statistics and Data
Analysis(4th edition). Brooks/Cole/Cengage Learning, 20 Channel
Center Street Boston, MA 02210, USA

Ott, R.L., Longnecker, M. (2010). An Introduction to Statistical Methods and Data

Amalysis(6th ed). Brooks/Cole, Cengage Learning, CA, USA.

Raussas, George(2003). Introduction to Probability and Statistical Inference.

Elseviere Science, USA

Walpole, RE, & Myers, RH.(1993). Probability and Statistics for Engineers and (5th
ed.). Macmillan Publishing Company, New York.

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