BERNOULLI DISTRIBUTION

Suppose that there is a trial whose outcome can be classified as either success (X = 1) with

probability p, or failure (X = 0) with probability 1- p.

Thus, the probability of 1 success in a trial is given by

P( X )  p X (1  p)1 X

EXAMPLE

A coin is tossed once. What is the probability of getting a head?

SOLUTION

1 1
X  1, p  , (1  p ) 
2 2

1 0
1 1 1
P( X )      
2 2 2

EXAMPLE

Approximately 1 in 200 Nigerians are lawyers. One Nigerian is randomly selected. What is the

distribution of the number of lawyers?

SLUTION

1 199
p , (1  p ) 
200 200

X 0 1

1
 P(X) 199 1
200 200

Mean, Variance and Standard Deviation of Bernoulli Distribution

a.) Mean,   p

b.) Standard deviation,   p(1  p)

c.) Variance,  2  p (1  p )

BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

A binomial experiment is a type of probability problem that have only two outcomes or can be

reduced to two outcomes alone. It is a probability experiment that satisfies the following

conditions:

1. There must be a fixed number of trials.

2. Each trial can have only two outcomes, or outcomes that can be reduced to two outcomes

– success (S) and failure (F).

3. The outcomes of each trial must be independent of each other.

4. The probability of success p, must remain the same for each trial; and the probability of

failure is 1 – p.

Thus, the probability of exactly X successes in n trials is given by

P( X )  nC X p X (1  p ) n  X

EXAMPLE

Find the probability of getting exactly 2 heads in tossing a fair coin 3 times.

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SOLUTION

P( X )  nC X p X (1  p ) n  X

1 1
n  3, X  2, p  , (1  p ) 
2 2

2 1
1 1 3
P ( X )  C2     
3

2 2 8

EXAMPLE

Find the probability of getting at least 4 heads in 6 tosses of a fair coin.

SOLUTION

1 1
n  6, X  4,5, 6, p  , (1  p) 
2 2

4 2
 1   1  15
P( X  4)  C4     
6

 2   2  64

5 1
1 1 3
P( X  5)  6C5     
 2   2  32

6 0
1 1 1
P( X  6)  C6     
6

 2   2  64

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 P ( X  4, 5, 6) 
64

EXAMPLE

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Sixty percent of all computers sold by a large computer retailer are laptops and forty percent are

desktop models. The type of computer purchased by each of the next 12 customers will be

recorded. Find the probability that:

a.) Exactly 4 computers are laptops

b.) Between 4 and 7 (inclusive) are laptops

SOLUTION

a.) n  12, X  4, p  0.6, (1  p)  0.4

P( X  4)  12C4 (0.6) 4 (0.4)8  0.042

b.) n  12, X  4,5,6,7 p  0.6, (1  p)  0.4

P( X  4,5, 6, 7)  12C4 (0.6) 4 (0.4)8  12C5 (0.6)5 (0.4)7  12C6 (0.6)6 (0.4)6  12C7 (0.6)7 (0.4)5  0.547

EXAMPLE

A six-sided die is rolled 12 times. What is the probability of getting a 4 five times?

SOLUTION

1 5
n  12, X  5, p  , (1  p ) 
6 6

5 7
1 1
P( X  4)  C5    
12
0.028425
6 6

EXAMPLE

A multi choice exam contains 20 questions with answer choices A, B, C, D. Only one answer

choice to each question represents a correct answer. Find the probability that a student will

answer exactly 6 questions correctly if he makes random guesses on all 20 questions.

4
SOLUTION

1 3
n  20, X  6, p  , (1  p ) 
4 4

6 14
1 3
P( X  6)  C6    
20
0.168609
4 4

Mean, Standard Deviation and Variance of Binomial Distribution

a.) Mean,   np

b.) Standard deviation,   np (1  p )

c.) Variance,  2  np(1  p)

EXAMPLE

A coin is tossed 4 times. Find the mean, variance and standard deviation of the number of heads

that will be obtained.

SOLUTION

1 1
n  4, p , (1  p ) 
2 2

a.) Mean,   np

1
  np  4  2
2

b.) Standard deviation,   np (1  p )

1 1
  4  1
2 2

c.) Variance,  2  np(1  p)

5
 1 1
 2  4  1
2 2

EXAMPLE

A survey found that 1% of social media users are too young to be online unsupervised. If 800

social media users are randomly selected, find the mean, variance and standard deviation of users

who are too young to be online unsupervised.

SOLUTION

1
a.)   np  800  8
100

1 99
b.)   np(1  P)  800   2.8
100 100

1 99
c.)  2  np (1  P )  800   7.9
100 100

MULTINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

If X consists of events E1, E2, E3, . . . , Ek, which have corresponding probabilities p1, p2, p3, . . . ,

pk of occurring, and X1 is the number of times E1 will occur, X2 is the number of times E2 will

occur, X3 is the number of times E3 will occur, etc., then the probability that X will occur is P(X)

n!
P( X )  p1X1  p1X 2   p1X k
X 1 ! X 2 !  Xk !

where X1 + X2 + X3 + . . . + Xk = n and p1 + p2 + p3 + . . . + pk = 1.

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Example

In a large city, 50% of the people choose movie, 30% choose dinner, and 20% choose shopping as

a leisure activity. If a sample of 5 people is randomly selected, find the probability that 3 are

planning to go to a movie, 1 to a dinner, and 1 to a shopping mall.

Solution

n  5, X1  3, X 2  1, X 3  1

p1  0.5, p2  0.3, p3  0.2

n!
P( X )  p1X1  p1X 2   p1X k
X 1 ! X 2 !  Xk !
5!
  0.53  0.31  0.21
3!1!1!
 0.15

HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION

Given a population with only two types of objects (males and females, successes and failures,

defectives or non-defectives etc.) such that there are a items of one kind and b items of another

kind and a + b equals the total population, the probability P(X) of selecting without replacement

a sample of size n with X items of type a and n-X items of type b is

a
C X b Cn  X
P( X )  a b
Cn

EXAMPLE

Ten people apply for a job in a firm. Five are graduates and five are not. If the recruiter selects

three applicants at random, find the probability that all three are graduates.

7
SOLUTION

b = 5, d = 5, n = 3, X = 3

a
C X b Cn  X
P( X )  a b
Cn

5
C3 5C0 1
P( X  3)  10

C3 12

EXAMPLE

A survey found that four out of nine houses have Internet connections. If five houses are selected

from the nine houses, find the probability that exactly two have internet connections.

SOLUTION

b = 4, d = 5, n = 5, X = 2, n – X = 3

a
C X b Cn  X
P( X )  a b
Cn

4
C2 5C3 10
P( X  2)  9 
C5 21

POISSON DISTRIBUTION

The Poisson distribution is useful when the number of trials n, is large and the probability of

success p, is small and when the independent variables occur over a period of time, volume, area

etc. This is given by the formula

e  X
P( X ;  ) 
X!

8
Where e = 2.7183, X = 0, 1, 2, …, and  is the mean number of occurrences per unit time,

volume, area etc.

EXAMPLE

If there are 200 typographical errors randomly distributed in a 500-page book, find the

probability that a given page contains exactly 3 errors.

SOLUTION

e  X
P( X ;  ) 
X!

200
  0.4, X  3, e  2.7183
500

e 0.4  0.43
P(3;0.4)   0.0072
3!

EXAMPLE

A machine produces on average 2 percent defectives. In a random sample of 60 items, determine

the probability of there being 3 defectives.

SOLUTION

n  60, p  0.02, X  3, e  2.7183,   np  60  0.02  1.2,

e 1.2 1.23
P(3;1.2)   0.0867
3!

EXAMPLE

9
A secretary receives on average 3 calls per hour. For a given hour, find the probability that the

secretary will receive at most 3 calls.

SOLUTION

P( X  0,1, 2,3)  P(0;3)  P(1;3)  P(2;3)  P(3;3)

P( X  0,1, 2,3)  0.0498  0.1494  0.2240  0.2240  0.6472

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 CONTINUOUS RANDOM VARIABLE

A random variable is continuous if there are a large number of observable outcomes covering an

interval or set of intervals.

The probability density function (p.d.f) for a continuous random variable X, is a curve such that

the area under the curve over an interval equals the probability that X is in the interval.

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

A normal random variable has a specific form of a bell-shaped probability density curve called

normal curve. A normal random variable is said to have a normal distribution. It is completely

characterized by specifying values for its mean  and standard deviation  .

The mathematical equation for a normal distribution is given by

( X   )2
1 
y e 2 2

 2

Features of the Theoretical Normal Distribution

1. The normal curve is symmetrical and bell-shaped.

2. P( X   )  P( X   )  0.5

3. P( X    d )  P( X    d ) for any positive number d.

4. The empirical rule holds:

a. P(     X     )  0.68

b. P(   2  X    2 )  0.95

c. P(   3  X    3 )  0.997

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Areas under Normal Distribution Curve

Put a diagram here!

The Standard Normal Distribution

The standard normal distribution is a normal distribution whose mean is zero (   0) and

standard deviation is 1 (  1) . The formula for the standard normal distribution is

2
1  z2
y e
2

Normally distributed variables can be transformed into the standard normally distributed variable

by using the formula for the standard value, thus:

value  mean X 
Z 
s tan dard deviation 

A standard value (or Z value) measures the number of standard deviation that a value falls from

the mean.

Put a diagram here!

Useful Probability Relationships for Normal Random Variables

1. P( X  a)  1  P( X  a)

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 2. P(a  X  b)  P( X  b)  P( X  a)

3. P( X    d )  P( X    d ), d  0

Using Table to Find Probabilities for Normal Random Variable

A normal random variable with   0 and standard deviation   1 is said to be a standard

normal random variable and to have a standard normal distribution. When a value for any normal

random variable is converted to a z-value, it is equivalent to converting the random variable of

interest to a standard random variable. The letter Z is used to represent a standard normal random

variable.

To find the area under the standard normal distribution curve (i.e. probabilities), draw and shade

the portion of interest then check the values in the table.

N|B

Probabilities for certain “extreme” Z-values are given in a section of the table.

EXAMPLE

Find the area under the standard normal curve for each of the following:

1. 0 < Z < 2.34

2. -1.75 < Z < 0

3. -1.37 < Z < 1.68

4. Z < -1.93

5. Z > 1.11

6. -2.48 < Z < -0.83

7. Z > -1.93

13
 8. 2 < Z < 2.47

SOLUTION

Draw the curves and shade to indicate the areas of interest for each of them. Check the table.

Put diagrams here!

1. 0.4904

2. 0.4599

3. 0.8682

4. 0.9732

5. 0.1335

6. 0.1967

7. 0.9732

8. 0.016

Applications of the Normal Distribution

To solve problems by using the standard normal distribution, transform the original variable X,

to a standard normal distribution variable Z, by

value  mean X 
Z 
s tan dard deviation 

Then use the table as in the example above.

EXAMPLE

14
Suppose that the students’ scores for a Mathematics exam have a normal distribution with mean

515 and standard deviation 100. What is the probability that a randomly selected student had a

score les than or equal to 600?

SOLUTION

Put a diagram here!

value  mean X 
Z 
s tan dard deviation 

600  515
Z  0.85
100

From the table,

Z  0.85  0.5  0.3023  0.8023

 P( X  600)  0.8023

EXAMPLE

Each month, a Nigerian generates an average of 28kg of waste for recycling. Assume the standard

deviation is 2kg. If a Nigerian is selected at random, find the probability that they generate:

a.) Between 27kg and 31kg of waste per month

b.) More than 30.2kg of waste per month

SOLUTION

15
Put a diagram here!

a.) P(27  X  31)  0.6247

b.) P( X  30.2)  0.1357

EXAMPLE

A report shows that the average time it takes to respond to an emergency call is 25 minutes.

Assume that the variable is normally distributed and the standard deviation is 4.5 minutes. If 80

calls are randomly selected, how many will be responded to in less than 15 minutes?

SOLUTION

Put a diagram here!

15  25
Z  2.22
4.5

P( X  2.22)  0.5  0.4868  0.0132

For a sample size of 80, number of calls become 80  0.0132  1.056

This is approximately 1 call in less than 15 minutes.

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