ENGR 201: Statistics for Engineers

Chapter 3 Discrete Random Variables and

Probability Distributions*

Binomial, Poisson and Hypergeometric Probability

Distributions

*
Partly based on the lecture notes of Y. Wang of UCLA and of D. Tenenbaum of UNC
Note 6 of 5E
 Review
I. What’s in last few lectures?
Experiment, Event, Sample space, Probability,
Counting rules, Conditional probability,
Bayes’s rule, random variables, mean,
variance. Chapter 3.

II. What's in this lecture?

Binomial, Poisson and Hypergeometric
Probability Distributions.
Read Chapter 4.
Note 6 of 5E
 Introduction
• Discrete random variables take on
only a finite or countable number of
values.
• There are several useful discrete
probability distributions. We will
learn Binomial and Poisson
distributions.
Note 6 of 5E
The Binomial Random Variable
The coin-tossing experiment is a
simple example of a binomial
random variable. Toss a fair coin n =
3 times and record x = number of
heads.

x p(x)
0 1/8
1 3/8
2 3/8
3 1/8
Note 6 of 5E
 The Binomial Random Variable
• Many situations in real life resemble the coin
toss, but the coin is not necessarily fair, so that
P(H)  1/2.
• Example: A geneticist samples 10
people and counts the number who have
a gene linked to Alzheimer’s disease.

• Coin: Person • Number of tosses: n = 10

• Head: Has gene P(has gene) = proportion
• Tail: • P(H): in the population who
Doesn’t have gene have the gene.
Note 6 of 5E
 The Binomial Experiment
1. The experiment consists of n identical trials.
2. Each trial results in one of two outcomes,
outcomes success (S)
or failure (F).
3. The probability of success on a single trial is p and
remains constant from trial to trial. The probability of
failure is q = 1 – p.
4. The trials are independent.
independent
5. We are interested in x, the number of successes in n
trials.

Note 6 of 5E
 Binomial or Not?
The independence is a key assumption
that often violated in real life applications

• Select two people from the U.S.

population, and suppose that 15% of the
population has the Alzheimer’s gene.
• For the first person, p = P(gene) = .15
• For the second person, p  P(gene) = .15,
even though one person has been removed
from the population.
Note 6 of 5E
 Binomial or Not?
2 out of 20 PCs are defective. We randomly select 3
for testing. Is this a binomial experiment?
1. The experiment consists of n=3 identical trials
2. Each trial result in one of two outcomes
3. The probability of success (finding the defective) is
2/20 and remains the same
4. The trials are not independent. For example,
P( success on the 2nd trial | success on the 1st trial) =
1/19, not 2/20

Rule of thumb: if the sample size n is relatively large to

the population size N, say n/N >= .05, the resulting
experiment would not be binomial.
Note 6 of 5E
The Binomial Probability SticiGui

Distribution
For a binomial experiment with n trials and
probability p of success on a given trial, the
probability of k successes in n trials is
nn kk nnkk nn!! kk nnkk
PP((xx  kk))CC pp qq
kk  pp qq for forkk 00,1,1,,22,...
,...nn..
kk!!((nnkk)!)!
nn!!
Recall CC 
nn
Recall kk
kk!!((nnkk)!)!
withnn!! nn((nn11)()(nn22)...(
with and00!!11..
)...(22))11and
Note 6 of 5E
 The Mean and Standard
Deviation
For a binomial experiment with n trials and
probability p of success on a given trial, the
measures of center and spread are:

Mean::  np
Mean np
Variance::  npq
22
Variance npq
Standard deviation::  npq
Standarddeviation npq

Note 6 of 5E
 Example
A marksman hits a target 80% of the
time. He fires five shots at the target. What is
the probability that exactly 3 shots hit the
target?
n= 5 success = hit p = .8 x = # of hits

5!
P( x  3)  C p q
n
3
3 n 3
 (.8)3 (.2)53
3!2!

 10(.8)3 (.2) 2  .2048

Note 6 of 5E
 Example

What is the probability that more than 3 shots

hit the target?

P( x  3)  C45 p 4 q 54  C55 p 5 q 55

5! 5!
 (.8) (.2) 
4 1
(.8)5 (.2) 0
4!1! 5!0!

 5(.8) 4 (.2)  (.8)5  .7373

Note 6 of 5E
 Cumulative
Probability Tables
You can use the cumulative probability
tables to find probabilities for selected
binomial distributions.

Find
Find the
the table
table for
for the
the correct
correct value
value of
of n.
n.

Find
Find the
the column
column for
for the
the correct
correct value
value of
of p.
p.

The
The row
row marked
marked “k”
“k” gives
gives the
the cumulative
cumulative
probability, P(x  k)
probability, P(x k) == P(x
P(x == 0)
0) +…+
+…+ P(x
P(x == k)
k)
Note 6 of 5E
 Example
k p = .80
0 .000 What is the probability that exactly 3
1 .007 shots hit the target?
2 .058
3 .263
4 .672
P(
P(xx == 3) P(x  3)
3) == P(x P(x  2)
3) –– P(x 2)
5 1.000
== .263
.263 -- .058
.058
== .205
.205 Check from formula:
P(x = 3) = .2048

Note 6 of 5E
 Example
k p = .80
0 .000 What is the probability that more
1 .007 than 3 shots hit the target?
2 .058
3 .263
4 .672
P(
P(xx >> 3) P(x  3)
3) == 11 -- P(x 3)
5 1.000
== 11 -- .263
.263 == .737
.737
Check from formula:
P(x > 3) = .7373

Note 6 of 5E
 Example
Would it be unusual to find that none
of the shots hit the target?
P(x
P(x == 0) P(x  0)
0) == P(x 0) == 00
What is the probability that less than 3 shots hit
the target?
P(x
P(x << 3) P(x  2)
3) == P(x 2) == 0.058
0.058
What is the probability that less than 4 but more
than 1 shots hit the target?

P(1<x
P(1<x << 4) P(x  3)
4) == P(x P(x  1)
3) -- P(x 1)
== .263-.007=.256
.263-.007=.256 Note 6 of 5E
 Example
Here is the probability distribution
for x = number of hits. What are
the mean and standard deviation for
x?

Mean::  np
Mean np  55(.(.88))  44
Standard deviation::  npq
Standarddeviation npq

 55(.(.88)(.
)(.22)) ..89
89


Note 6 of 5E
 The Poisson Random Variable
• The Poisson random variable x is often a model
for data that represent the number of occurrences
of a specified event in a given unit of time or
space.

• Examples:
• The number of calls received by a switchboard
during a given period of time.
• The number of machine breakdowns in a day
• The number of traffic accidents at a given
intersection during a given time period.
Note 6 of 5E
 The Poisson Probability
Distribution
Let x a Poisson random variable. The
probability of k occurrences of this event is

 k e
P( x  k ) 
k!
For
Forvalues
valuesofofkk==0,
0,1,
1,2,
2,…
…The
Themean
meanand
and
standard
standarddeviation
deviationofofthe
thePoisson
Poissonrandom
random
variable
variableare
are
Mean:
Mean:
Standard deviation:   
Standard deviation: Note 6 of 5E
 Example
The average number of traffic accidents on a
certain section of highway is two per week.
Find the probability of exactly one accident
during a one-week period.
k  1 2
 e 2e 2
P( x  1)    2e  .2707
k! 1!

Note 6 of 5E
 Cumulative
Probability Tables
You can use the cumulative probability
tables to find probabilities for selected Poisson
distributions.


Find
Find the
the column
column for
for the
the correct
correct value of ..
value of

The
The row
row marked
marked “k”
“k” gives
gives the
the cumulative
cumulative
probability, P(x  k)
probability, P(x k) == P(x
P(x == 0)
0) +…+
+…+ P(x
P(x == k)
k)

Note 6 of 5E
 Example
k =2 What is the probability that there is
0 .135 exactly 1 accident?
1 .406
2 .677
3 .857
4 .947
P(x
P(x == 1) P(x  1)
1) == P(x P(x  0)
1) –– P(x 0)
5 .983
== .406
.406 -- .135
.135
6 .995
== .271
.271 Check from formula:
P(x = 1) = .2707
7 .999
8 1.000
Note 6 of 5E
 Example
k =2 What is the probability that 8 or
0 .135 more accidents happen?
1 .406
2 .677
3 .857 P(x  8)
P(x 8) == 11 -- P(x
P(x << 8)
8)
4 .947 P(x  7)
== 11 –– P(x 7)
5 .983 == 11 -- .999
.999 == .001
.001
6 .995
7 .999
8 1.000
Note 6 of 5E
 m
The Hypergeometric m
m
m
m
m

m
Probability Distribution
A bowl contains M red M&M® candies and N-
M blue M&M® candies. Select n candies from
the bowl and record x the number of red
candies selected. Define a “red M&M®” to be
a “success”.
The probability of exactly k successes in n trials is

M M N
C C
P( x  k )  k
N
nk
C n Note 6 of 5E
The Mean and Variance

 M
M 
Mean::  nn 
Mean
 NN 
 M
M  NN M
M  NN nn
Variance ::  nn 
22
Variance  
 NN  NN  NN 11

Note 6 of 5E
 Example
A package of 8 AA batteries contains 2
batteries that are defective. A student randomly
selects four batteries and replaces the batteries
in his calculator. What is the probability that
all four batteries work?
6 2
C C
Success = working battery P ( x  4)  4
8
0

N=8 C4
M=6 6(5) / 2(1) 15
 
n=4 8(7)(6)(5) / 4(3)(2)(1) 70
Note 6 of 5E
 Example
What are the mean and variance for the
number of batteries that work?
 M  6
  n   4   3
 N  8
 M  N  M  N  n 
  n 
2
 
 N  N  N  1 
 6  2  4 
 4     .4286
 8  8  7 
Note 6 of 5E
 Key Concepts
The Binomial Random Variable
1. Five characteristics: n identical trials, each resulting in
either success S or failure F; probability of success is p and
remains constant from trial to trial; trials are independent; and
x is the number of successes in n trials.
2. Calculating binomial probabilities
n k nk
a. Formula: P ( x  k )  C k p q

b. Cumulative binomial tables

3. Mean of the binomial random variable:   np

4. Variance and standard deviation:  2  npq and   npq
npq

Note 6 of 5E
 Key Concepts
II. The Poisson Random Variable
1. The number of events that occur in a period of time or
space, during which an average of  such events are expected
to occur
2. Calculating Poisson probabilities
kkee
PP((xxkk))
a. Formula: kk!!
b. Cumulative Poisson tables

3. Mean of the Poisson random variable: E(x) 

4. Variance and standard deviation:  2   and   

Note 6 of 5E
 Key Concepts
III. The Hypergeometric Random Variable
1. The number of successes in a sample of size n from a finite
population containing M successes and N  M failures
2. Formula for the probability of k successes in n trials:
CCkMkMCCnMnMkkNN
PP((xxkk))
CCnNnN
3. Mean of the hypergeometric random variable:
M 
nn M 
 NN 
4. Variance and standard deviation:
M M NNM
M NNnn
 nn 
22
 
 NN  NN  NN11
Note 6 of 5E