Probability Notes Part 2

© MR MNENGE MABUGA MTEGETWA EDUCATION CENTER
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS AND

RANDOM VARIABLES.
Variable- Understood as an Attribute that assumes different
values i.e. Is a quantity that varies.
RANDOM VARIABLES
A random Variable is a variable whose values are determined
by chance.
That means is a variable that associated with a random
phenomenon. And usually denoted by a capital letter, X, Y, Z
etc and assumed values denoted by small letter a,b,c,d . . .
Example of random variable is; number of heads obtained
from rolling a coin ten times.
TYPES OF RANDOM VARIABLES.

Random variables are divided into two parts.
(I). Discrete random variables
(II). Continuous random variables
MR MABUGA’S
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Email:mnenge.mabuga@gmail.
I. DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLES
Is a Random variable whose values assumed are countable of
whole numbers, and they are determined by chance.
Properties of Discrete random Variables.(DRV)

1. It assumes whole numbers
2. Sum of all Probability is exactly equals to 1.
Example 01.
Consider the experiment of tossing a fair coin three times
S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}
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Let X be number of heads that shows up in three tosses
That means X = {0, 1,2,3} which are whole numbers.
P(X=0) = P(TTT) =
P(X=1) = P(TTH) + P(HTT) + P(THT)
= + + =
P(X=1) =
P(X=2) = P(HHT) + P(HTH) + P(THH)
= + + =
P(X=2) = .
P(X =3) = P(HHH) =
In table form
X 0 1 2 3
P(X=x)
Thus. ∑ = + + + =1
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II.CONTINUOUS RANDOM VARIABLES

These are variables which assume any numerical value in an
interval or collection of intervals
E.g:
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION.
Probability distribution is a table, function, figure or graph
that shows the values of random variable with their
corresponding chance of occurrence i.e. respective probabilities.
Example
TYPES OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Probability distribution includes two main parts
(I). Discrete probability distribution
(II).Continuous probability distribution.
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I.DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

This is the probability distribution function or variable which
assumes separate values, E.g.:
It consists the following important parts:-
01. Mathematical expectation
02. Binomial probability distribution
03. Poisson probability distribution
01. MATHEMATICAL EXPECTATION.

It should have to be noted that Mean and Expectation are
more or less the same however they differ in the following
ways
Mean is an average value that obtained empirically, that is

through experiment. While
An Expected value is an average value that obtained

theoretically, since it is associated with chances that is to say
it is the theoretical mean, it is also called weighted mean.
Mathematical expectation or expected value of a random

variable, is denoted by .
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Consider the random variable with their

respective frequencies as shown in the table below.
From the table above
∑ ∑ ∑ ∑
̅ ∑
But, ̅
Therefore ∑ Where, ∑
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VARIANCE AND STANDARD DEVIATION.

VARIANCE
Recall,
∑ ̅
∑
∑ ̅ ̅
∑
∑ ̅ ̅ ̅
∑
∑ ̅ ̅
∑
∑ ∑ ̅ ∑ ̅
∑ ∑ ∑
∑ ̅∑ ̅ ∑
∑ ∑ ∑
∑ ∑
∑
̅ ̅ ̅ ∑
̅ ̅
∑ ̅̅̅
∑
̅ ̅
But ̅ and ̅̅̅
Therefore, ( )
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STANDARD DEVIATION
Recall,
WORKED EXAMPLES
01. Given the probability distribution table
⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ⁄
Find the values of the following
(i) (iii) ̅
(ii) (iv) ̅
Solution
Consider the distribution table below
⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ⁄
̅
̅
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(I). ∑
(II). ∑
(III). ̅ ∑ ̅
( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ )
̅
(IV). ̅
∑ ̅
( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ )
̅
Note: Always, ̅
Proof
̅ ∑ ̅ ∑ ∑ ̅
∑ ̅∑
̅ = ̅ . . . . . . . . Proved
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2. Given the distribution table below
Find
(i) The value of
(ii) The expected value
(iii) ̅
Solution
(i) The value of
From the given table
∑
⁄
{ ⁄ }
(ii) The expected value
- Consider the probability distribution table below
⁄ ⁄ ⁄
⁄
̅ ⁄ ⁄ ⁄
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From
∑
The expected value is ⁄
(iii). ̅ ∑ ̅
⁄ ( ⁄ ) ⁄ ( ⁄ ) ⁄ ( ⁄ )
⁄ ⁄ ⁄ =0
02. In tossing a coin twice where represents the number

of heads appear, construct the probability table for random
experiment, from the table calculate the expected value.
Solution
Tossing a coin twice
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{ }
Probability distribution table
⁄ ⁄ ⁄
⁄ ⁄
From
∑
⁄ ⁄
The expected value is,

03. A class consists of 8 students. A committee of 4 students
is to be selected from the class of which 4 are girls. If
represents the number of girls, construct the probability
table for random variable , from the table calculate the
expected value.
Solution
Probability distribution table
⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ⁄
⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ⁄
From
∑
⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ⁄
The expected value is
MR MABUGA’S
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4. Suppose a random variable takes on the values,
and with respective probabilities , , and .

Determines the distribution and expectation of
Solution
From the given data
∑
Distribution table
⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ⁄
⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ⁄
Hence,
∑
⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ⁄ ⁄
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05. A student estimates his chances of getting A in his

subject is 10%, B+ is 40%, B is 35%, C is 10%, D is 4% and E is
1%. By obtaining A, the student must get 5 points, for B +, B, C,
D and E he must get 4, 3, 2, 1 and 0 respectively. Find the
student expectation and standard deviation
Solution
Distribution table
A B+ B C D E
The expectation of , is
Also
√ ( ) But ∑
Hence
√ √
Standard deviation,
MR MABUGA’S
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06. The random variable has a probability distribution of
⁄ ⁄ ⁄
Find the numerical values of and if ⁄
Solution
From the given table
∑
⁄ ⁄ ⁄
Also, ∑
⁄ ( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ )
⁄ ⁄ ⁄
⁄ ⁄
⁄ ⁄
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Solving and as follows
⁄ ⁄
The numerical values of and are ⁄ ⁄ .
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THE EXPECTATION AND VARIANCE

OF DISCRETE R.V
Where, Is any constant

PROOF
From ∑
Proved. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
PROOF From, ∑
Proved. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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Where, and are any constants

PROOF
From
∑
∑ ∑
∑ ∑
,
Proved. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
PROOF, From,
( )
( )
Proved. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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Where, is any constant
PROOF
From
( )
( )
( )
( )
* ( ) +
Proved. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Where, and are any constants

PROOF
MR MABUGA’S
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From
( )
( )
( )
( )
( ( ) )
( )
( )
( ( ) )
Proved . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
MR MABUGA’S
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WORKED EXAMPLES.
7. a) For random variable , show that
b) The random variable has a probability density function
for as shown in the table below
Find (I) (II) (III)

Solution
(I)
But ∑
(II) ∑
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(III)
But, ( )
Hence,
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BINOMIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION.

This is the probability distribution which consists two
probability values which can be distributed binomially win -
number of trials of the experiment.
Binomial experiment is an experiment which has two
possible outcomes (success and failure) and perform -
independent trials of the experiment.
P R O P E R T I E S.
(I) It has two probabilities; one is probability of success and
one is probability of failure.
(II) The sum of probability of success and that of failure
is one. i.e.
(III) The trials must be independent to each other.
(IV) It consists of -number of trials of the experiment.
Hence:
If is the probability that an event will happen i.e.
(probability of success) and is the probability that an event
will not happen i.e. (probability of failure) where is the
number of trials of the experiment.
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Then
The probability that an event occurs exactly times from
-number of trials is given by
Where
Is the number of trials
Is the probability of success
Is the probability of failure
Is the variable
Note that, .
WORKED EXAMPLES
8. In tossing a coin ten times, find the probability of obtaining
(a) Exactly 3 heads
(b) At least 2 tails
Solution
Given
⁄ ⁄
(a) Exactly 3 heads,
From
( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ )
( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ )
( ⁄ )
The probability is
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(a) At least 2 tails
[ ]
* ( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ ) +
* ( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ ) +
( ⁄ ) [ ]
The probability is
9. In Iambi village, there are 800 families with 5 children
each. Assuming that the probability of male birth in the
village is ⁄ . How many families would you expect to have
(a) 3 boys (b) 5 girls and (c) Either 2 or 3 boys
Solution
Given
Number of family’s families
⁄ ⁄
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(a) 3 boys
( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ )
( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ )
But,
Families
(b) 5 girls
( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ )
( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ )
But,
Families
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(c) Either 2 or 3 boys
( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ )
( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ )
But,
Families
10. A multiple choice test consists of 8 questions and 3

answers to each, only one choice when is correct. A pupil
decides on his choice by rolling a fair die. If he gets 1 or 2 he
chooses the first, if he gets 3 or 4 he chooses the second, if
he gets 5 or 6 he chooses the third. By using binomial
distribution, find the probability that he gets
a) No correct answer
b) Exactly 3 correct answers
c) At least 6 correct answers
Solution
Given
⁄ ⁄
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(a) No correct answer
( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ )
The probability is
(b) Exactly 3 correct answer
From
( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ )
= 0.273129096.
11. The binomial distribution of 5 independent trials, the

probability of 1 and 2 successes are 0.4096 and 0.2048
respectively. Find the parameter (Pure probability of success)
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Solution
By using Binomial distribution
Dividing (i) by (ii) as follows
But,
The parameter is, ⁄
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MEAN, VARIANCE AND STANDARD

DEVIATION BY BINOMIAL
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION.
I. MEAN ̅ .
From, ̅ ∑
Where,
* +
Therefore,
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VARIANCE
From, ( )
But
( )
Taking ( ) ∑
∑
Where,
( )
( )
( )
* +
( )
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Hence ( )
Therefore, ( )
STANDARD DEVIATION
Note: From
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv) √
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12.A fair coin is tossed 12 times; the probability of obtaining

head is 0.5. Determine the mean and standard deviation
Solution
Given, ,
̅
Mean ̅
Standard deviation
√ √ √
Standard deviation is
13. If is a random variable such that and .

Find the value of and standard deviation
Solution
Given, ,
Also √
√
Standard deviation is
MR MABUGA’S
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14.Suppose that the rain office records show that an average

of 5 days in 30 days in June are rainy days. Find the
probability that June will have exactly 3 rainy days by using a
binomial distribution, also find the standard deviation.
Solution
⁄ ⁄
From, Binomial distribution
( ⁄ ) ( ⁄ )
The probability is
Also
√ ⁄ ⁄
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POISSON PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION.

This is the special case of binomial probability distribution
when the value of is very large number i.e. and the
probability of success, is very small i.e.
PROPERTIES
The condition for application of Poisson probability distribution
(i).The variable must be discrete random
(ii).The occurrence must be independent
(iii).The value of is always greater than i.e. and
the probability of success is very small i.e.
(iv).Mean ̅
Hence,
But,
But,
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
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( ) ( )
( ) ( )
( )
( )( ) ( ( )) ( )
( )( ) ( ( )) ( )
( )
( )( ) ( ( )) [( ) ]
( )
Since, very large i.e.

Hence
Therefore
Poisson probability distribution.
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MEAN, VARIANCE AND STANDARD

DEVIATION BY POISSON PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
MEAN ̅
From, ̅ ∑
∑ ∑
∑ ∑
Where,
( )
( )
Therefore, Mean ̅
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VARIANCE
From, ( )
But
( )
( ) ∑
Where,
( ) ( )
( )
( )
Also
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( )
Therefore, ( )
STANDARD DEVIATION
Recall:
Note: From:
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv) √
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WORKED EXAMPLES
15.Given that the probability that an individual is suffering
from Malaria is 0.001. Determine the probability that out of
2000 individuals
a) Exactly 3 will suffer
b) At least 2 will suffer
Solution
Given ,
, ,
(a) Exactly 3 will suffer
The probability is
(b) At least 2 will suffer
[ ]
* +
[ ]
[ ]
The probability is
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16.Use Poisson distribution to find the probability that a

random sample of 8000 people contain at most 3 NCCR
members if an average shows that 1 person in each 1000
members is NCCR member.
Solution
Given
, ,
By using Poisson distribution
( )
The probability is,
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17(a) The random variable has a Poisson distribution. If

. Find
(b) Find the probability that at most 5 defective fuses will

be found in a box of 200 fuses, if an experience shows that
2% of such fuses are defective.
Solution
(a) From Poisson distribution
Dividing .. . . . . . . . (i) by . . . . . . . . . . .(ii) as follows
Hence,
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(b) Given
( )
The probability is,
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I.CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Is the probability distribution function which assumes any
numerical value in an interval
E.g:
It consists two important parts as follows:
01. Probability density function
02. Normal distribution
PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION (p.d.f)
PROPERTIES
i) The function is integrable
ii) The variable must be continuous
iii) The area under the curve is one
Where
The possible range of values of is for all
RULES
(i) for
(ii) ∫
(iii) ∫
E.g. ∫
(iv) ∫
E.g. ∫
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MEAN, VARIANCE AND STANDARD DEVIATION

BY PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION
From: ̅ ∫
̅ ∫
VARIANCE
Recall, ∫ ̅
∫ ̅ ̅
∫ ̅ ̅
∫ ∫ ̅ ∫ ̅
∫ ̅∫ ̅ ∫
∫ ̅ ̅ ̅
∫ ̅ ̅
∫ ̅
∫ (∫ )
∫ (∫ )
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STANDARD DEVIATION
Recall √
A continuous random variable has a probability function
given by
Observation in indicates that expectation of is . Show

that and hence find the value of .
Solution
Given
∫ ∫
2
 ax3 bx 4 
  
 3 4 0
( ) ( )
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( )
Also
∫ ∫
2
 ax 2 bx3 
   1
 2 3 0
( ) ( )
Solving ……………………(i) and …………………………(ii)
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, shown
Hence,
( ⁄ )
18.The random variable denoted that the number of weeks of
a certain type of half-life of the probability density function
is given by
Find the expected life.
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Solution
Given

 1 
 200  
 x 100
( )
( )
( )
The expected life is weeks
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19.Given that a probability distribution function for random

variable is given by
| |
{
Find the expected value
Solution
Given: | |
∫ ∫ | |
But | |
if
if
2
 x3 
 
 3 0
The expected value is, ⁄
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20. A function, is defined as
{ ⁄
Find the value of if it is a probability density function; hence,

calculate (I) Mean And (II) Variance
ANS, , ̅ , .
MR MABUGA’S
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Probability Notes Part 2

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Probability Notes Part 2

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© MR MNENGE MABUGA MTEGETWA EDUCATION CENTER

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS AND

Variable- Understood as an Attribute that assumes different

values i.e. Is a quantity that varies.

That means is a variable that associated with a random

phenomenon. And usually denoted by a capital letter, X, Y, Z

etc and assumed values denoted by small letter a,b,c,d . . .

Example of random variable is; number of heads obtained

from rolling a coin ten times.

TYPES OF RANDOM VARIABLES.

(I). Discrete random variables

(II). Continuous random variables

I. DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLES

Is a Random variable whose values assumed are countable of

whole numbers, and they are determined by chance.

Properties of Discrete random Variables.(DRV)

2. Sum of all Probability is exactly equals to 1.

S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}

Let X be number of heads that shows up in three tosses

That means X = {0, 1,2,3} which are whole numbers.

P(X=1) = P(TTH) + P(HTT) + P(THT)

P(X=2) = P(HHT) + P(HTH) + P(THH)

P(X =3) = P(HHH) =

II.CONTINUOUS RANDOM VARIABLES

interval or collection of intervals

that shows the values of random variable with their

corresponding chance of occurrence i.e. respective probabilities.

TYPES OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

(I). Discrete probability distribution

(II).Continuous probability distribution.

I.DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

assumes separate values, E.g.:

It consists the following important parts:-

01. Mathematical expectation

02. Binomial probability distribution

03. Poisson probability distribution

01. MATHEMATICAL EXPECTATION.

more or less the same however they differ in the following

Mean is an average value that obtained empirically, that is

An Expected value is an average value that obtained

Mathematical expectation or expected value of a random

Consider the random variable with their

From the table above

VARIANCE AND STANDARD DEVIATION.

But ̅ and ̅̅̅

01. Given the probability distribution table

Find the values of the following

Consider the distribution table below

2. Given the distribution table below

- Consider the probability distribution table below

The expected value is ⁄

02. In tossing a coin twice where represents the number

The expected value is,

The expected value is

4. Suppose a random variable takes on the values,

and with respective probabilities , , and .

05. A student estimates his chances of getting A in his

06. The random variable has a probability distribution of

Find the numerical values of and if ⁄

Solving and as follows

The numerical values of and are ⁄ ⁄ .

THE EXPECTATION AND VARIANCE

Where, Is any constant