How rainfall and amount of

fertilizers added affect the cereal

production in India?

227 Shania Soares

231 Yashita Damani
281 Yashvi Sharma
291 Chelsea Dsouza
349 Renee Chaurasia
Abstract
 DATA
YEAR CEREAL PRODUCTION RAINFALL(mm) FERTILIZERS (%)
(million metric tons)

2008 266835300 1155.3 188.965

2009 250783392 974.9 181.231

2010 267838308 1224.6 171.492

2011 287860000 1141.1 171.196

2012 293290000 1086.2 159.54

2013 294909510 1257 149.518

2014 296010000 1063.9 154.546

2015 284333000 1083.3 149.442

2016 297850000 1082.5 144.729

2017 313640000 1124.3 146.531

2018 318320000 1009.4 152.701

 Coefficients Standard t - Stat P value
Regression Results Error

Intercepts 469707240 71840790.79 6.538169121 0.0001807

● Cereal Production (Y) =𝛃1 + 𝛃2
(rainfall) + 𝛃3 (fertilizers added)
● Ŷ = 469707240 - 6979.06 X1 -
Rainfall -6979.061217 50389.43875 -0.13850246 0.89326623
1079133.20 X2
(in mm)
where X = independent variable
(amount of rainfall in mm and fertilizers
Fertilizers -1079133.198 281583.4629 -3.832374199 0.00500103
added in percentage) and Y
(in %)
= dependent variable (cereal production
in million metric tonnes).

● Approx 64% variation in Y can be

explained by entire set of R - Square 0.647789285
independent variable.
Adjusted R square 0.559736606
 Anova Table
df Sum of Squares Mean Sum of F Significance F
Squares

Regression 2 2633507438842010 1316753719421000 7.3568379 0.0153898995

Residual 8 1431869221503880 178983652687985

Total 10 4065376660345890

H0 : 𝛃2 = 0 ; Los = 5%

F = 7.36

F 2,8 = 4.46

F > F Critical ; 7.36 > 4.46

We reject the null hypothesis. Hence, F is statistically significant.

Model and Results
 References
- Fertilizer consumption (% of fertilizer production) - India. Data. (n.d.). Retrieved February 20, 2022, from

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.CON.FERT.PT.ZS?locations=IN

- India fertilizer consumption, 1960-2021. Knoema. (n.d.). Retrieved February 20, 2022, from

https://knoema.com/atlas/India/Fertilizer-consumption#:~:text=India%20%2D%20Fertilizer%20consumption%20per%20unit%20

of%20arable%20land&text=In%202018%2C%20fertilizer%20consumption%20for,average%20annual%20rate%20of%205.96%2

- Cereal production (metric tons) - India. Data. (n.d.). Retrieved February 20, 2022, from

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.PRD.CREL.MT?locations=IN

- Published by Statista Research Department, & 29, O. (2021, October 29). India: Cereal production 2021. Statista. Retrieved

February 20, 2022, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/620745/cereal-production-in-india/