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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) The Consumer Price Index (CPI)
A measure of the weighted average of prices of a Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS)
representative basket of consumer goods and estimates the CPI of representative rural and
services. urban households of the economy on a monthly
It is calculated by taking prices for each of the item basis and thus reports three sets of CPIs:
in the basket and then averaging them by their national,
respective weights in the consumption basket. rural and
The CPI is an index and not a value in terms of urban
money because it is expressed as a percentage of
what the market basket costs in a base period.
Measures the typical consumer’s cost of living
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price of price of
year cost of basket
pizza latte
2010 $10 $2.00 $10 x 4 + $2 x 10 = $60
2011 $11 $2.50 $11 x 4 + $2.5 x 10 = $69
2012 $12 $3.00 $12 x 4 + $3 x 10 = $78
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A. Compute the Consumer Basket cost in 2010, 2011 A. Compute the CPI in 2011:
and 2012.
Cost of CPI basket in 2011
B. Compute the CPI in 2010, 2011 and 2012. = ($5 x 10) + ($5 x 20) = $150
C. What was the CPI inflation rate from 2010-2011 and CPI in 2011 = 100 x ($150/$120) = 125
2011–2012?
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Problems with the CPI: Contrasting the CPI and GDP Deflator
Unmeasured Quality Change
Improvements in the quality of goods in the GDP deflator reflects the prices of all goods and
basket increase the value of each dollar. services produced domestically, whereas the CPI
reflects the prices of all goods and services bought
The BLS tries to account for quality changes by consumers.
but probably misses some, as quality is hard to
measure. CPI compares the price of a fixed basket of goods
and services to the price of the basket in the base
Thus, the CPI overstates increases in the cost of year. By contrast, the GDP deflator compares the
living. price of currently produced goods and services to
the price of the goods and services in the base
year.
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A. Starbucks raises the price of Frappuccinos. The National Accounting Wing of the Bangladesh
Bureau of Statistics (BBS) has been regularly
The CPI and GDP deflator both rise. constructing and disseminating CPI data for the
country.
B. Caterpillar raises the price of the industrial
tractors it manufactures at its Illinois factory. Monthly prices of the different items in the basket
are collected to construct CPI on a monthly basis
The GDP deflator rises, the CPI does not. while annual indices are prepared by averaging
C. Armani raises the price of the Italian jeans it the 12 month’s values
sells in the U.S. In calculating the indices, all the goods and
services included in the market basket are
The CPI rises, the GDP deflator does not.
classified under 8 commodity groups.
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How does BBS estimate CPI? How does BBS estimate CPI?
Procedure of data collection Procedure of data collection
Selection of the CPI basket items
Selection of the CPI basket items The indices are shown by general aggregation and separately
by food and non-food groups.
CPI basket must be as close as possible to be Non-food CPIs for national, urban and rural groups are further
representative of the purchases of a typical disaggregated by
(i) clothing and footwear
consumer in the country (ii) gross rent, fuel and lighting,
BBS conducts the Household Income and (iii) furniture, furnishing, household equipment and operation,
(iv) medical care and health expenses
Expenditure Survey (HIES) in every five years (v) transport and communications
and the HIES data is used for this purpose (vi) recreation, entertainment, education and cultural services and
(vii) miscellaneous goods and services.
The national basket comprises of rural and urban
The rural basket consists of 318 items (food 133 and non-
ones. food 185) while the urban one is made up of 422 items (food
151 and non-food 271).
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How does BBS estimate CPI? How does BBS estimate CPI?
Market Outlets
o Data is collected from 64 urban and 64 rural There are several outlets in the market that sell
markets various consumer items
o Price data is also collected for the Dhaka 3 are selected for price data collection
Metropolitan City from 12 selected markets Usually, the big outlets that sell a variety of
o Selected markets in the various areas are items are selected for this purpose.
typically large markets but Supermarkets are The outlets are from different regional levels like
excluded urban, rural, district and divisional headquarters
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How does BBS estimate CPI? How does BBS estimate CPI?
Data Collection Selecting the Base year
The process requires that the price collectors In practice, the year of HIES survey is used as
act and bargain like real buyers in the market the base year, because different types of
and make actual purchases of the selected weights used in constructing CPI come from
commodities. HIES data.
The data is checked immediately after collection Currently, 2005-06 is used as the base year.
to make sure that the prices of the correct Previously it was 1995-96
commodities (as specified in the CPI product
list) have been obtained
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How does BBS estimate CPI? How does BBS estimate CPI?
Determination of the weights Determination of the weights
In the case of National CPI, all urban and rural
indices are combined using as weights the total
country wide urban and rural household
expenditure
38.59
National CPI =
(64.89 × rural CPI) + (35.11 × urban CPI)
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Exercise Inflation
Suppose, you have deposited BDT 5,00,000 for A sustained rise in the overall level of prices in
one year at 5%. If the CPI value has changed an economy.
from 120 to 125 in one year, how much your
Economists use various price indexes to
purchasing power has changed in that year? If
measure the overall price level, also called the
the CPI value has moved to 130 instead of 125,
aggregate price level.
would your financial condition remain the same?
Inflation rate is the percentage change in a price
index-that is, the speed of overall price level
movements.
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Inflation Inflation
Hyperinflation- An extremely fast increase in Disinflation- A decline in the inflation rate,
aggregate price level, which corresponds to an such as from around 15% to 20% to 5% or 6%.
extremely high inflation rate—for example, 500% Deflation- A sustained decrease in aggregate
to 1000% per year. price level, which corresponds to a negative
inflation rate—that is, an inflation rate of less
Stagflation - a high inflation rate is combined
than 0%.
with a high level of unemployment and a
Disinflation is very different from deflation
slowdown of the economy. because even after a period of disinflation, the
inflation rate remains positive and the
aggregate price level keeps rising (although at
a slower speed).
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Inflation Inflation
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Inflation Inflation
3. 12 month moving average inflation =
[(avg. CPI last 12 months – avg. CPI previous 12
months)/ avg. CPI previous 12 months] × 100
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Exercise Exercise
2020 2021 2021 2022 Calculate and Comment
January 101 January 115
Calculate • Monthly Inflation for Mar 2022, August
February 103 February 120
• Monthly Inflation for Mar 2021, Sept 2022, and Dec 2022.
March 105 2021, Dec 2021. March 125
• Point to point inflation for Dec 2021 • Point to point inflation for August 2022
April 108 April 127
May 102 • 12 month moving average inflation for and Dec 2022
May 123
Dec 2021
June 109 June 135 • 12 month moving average inflation for
July 110 July 110 130 August 2022 and Dec 2022
Aug 115 Aug 115 136
Sept 116 Sept 116 134
Oct 114 Oct 114 140
Nov 117 Nov 117 145
Dec 100 120 Dec 120 150
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Inflation Inflation
Other Measures of Price and Inflation Other Measures of Price and Inflation
Core Inflation Producers Price Index
the steady or persistent component of inflation looks at the changes in the price level from the
that is free from disturbances that only have perspective of the manufacturers/producers
temporary effects on price levels measures the average change in the price of a
In tracking inflation, policymakers want to avoid basket of representative goods and services
being misled by rapid but temporary price sold by manufacturers and producers in the
changes that may distort the inflation picture wholesale market.
BBS does not construct the core inflation also called the Wholesale Price Index (WPI)
can be used to predict the CPI
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Thank You!
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