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India Research
November 4, 2011
Dealers Diary
Indian markets are expected to open in the green tracking positive cues from the Asian markets in opening trade and the rally in US and European stocks. US markets rallied for a second day on Thursday as Greece backed away from a proposed referendum. US markets would be eyeing the monthly nonfarm payroll and unemployment data due for release today. The European Central Bank provided a happy surprise to investors with a 25bp interest rate cut, a sign of a more aggressive approach to confront weak growth in the region. The market had expected rates to remain unchanged. Investors responded positively as Greek PM George Papandreou, under pressure from world leaders, climbed down from his proposal of a referendum on the country's bailout package, providing ruling and opposition parties strike a deal to resolve the country's political crisis. European leaders said earlier they were prepared for Greece to leave the euro zone to preserve their 12-year-old single currency if Athens did not decide quickly to implement a bailout programme, threatening the likes of Italy and Spain, and even France.
Domestic Indices BSE Sensex Nifty MID CAP SMALL CAP BSE HC BSE PSU BANKEX AUTO METAL OIL & GAS BSE IT Global Indices Dow Jones NASDAQ FTSE Nikkei Hang Seng Straits Times Shanghai Com
Chg (%) 0.1 0.1 (0.0) 0.0 0.0 0.6 (0.1) (0.4) (0.4) 1.1 (0.7) Chg (%) 1.8 2.2 1.1 (2.2) (2.5) (0.9) 0.2
(Pts) 17.1 7.3 (2.6) (0.3) (0.2) 43.8 (5.7) (36.3) (40.8) 97.1 (42.0) (Pts) 58.0 61.5 (195.1) (491.2) (24.7) 4.0
(Close) 17,482 5,266 6,251 6,932 6,138 7,558 11,233 9,212 11,652 9,055 5,732 (Close) 2,698 5,546 8,640 19,243 2,810 2,508
208.4 12,045
Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 17,429 / 5,250 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 17,580 17,678 / 5,298 5,329 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 17,429 / 5,250 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 17,331 17,180 / 5,218 5,170 levels.
Indices SENSEX NIFTY S2 17,180 5,170 S1 17,331 5,218 R1 17,580 5,298 R2 17,678 5,329
News Analysis
Petrol price hiked by `1.8/liter TRAI proposes easier M&A norms for telecom players L&T bags order worth `875cr in Oman 2QFY2012 Result Reviews SAIL, Gujarat Gas, Ashok Leyland, TVS Motor, Vesuvius India, Goodyear India 2QFY2012 Result Previews ONGC, Bharti Airtel, Nestle, GSK Pharmaceuticals, GSK Consumer, Marico, NCC
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
Gainers / Losers
Gujarat Gas
Gujarat Gas reported its 3QCY2011 results. The companys top line increased by 29.1% yoy to `644cr mainly on account of higher realization. Average sales realization stood at `19.7/scm (+24.7% yoy and +3.4% qoq), led by hike in selling prices of the industrial retail and CNG segments. Natural gas volume sold grew by 3.5% yoy to 326mmscm during the quarter. The companys cost of goods sold increased by 28.8% yoy to `490cr on account of higher proportion of expensive RLNG sales coupled with INR depreciation against the USD. Hence, EBITDA grew by 30.4% yoy (in-line with growth in net sales) to `118cr. Other income grew by 100.9% yoy to `10cr. Consequently, the companys net profit grew by 41.7% yoy to `80cr. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
Ashok Leyland
Ashok Leyland (AL) reported better-than-expected results for 2QFY2012 on account of above expectation operating margin performance. AL reported 14% yoy growth in its top line to `3,095cr, driven by an 18.7% yoy increase in average net realization. Volume performance, however, was subdued during the quarter, reporting a 3.9% yoy decline. Average net realization improved to `130,970 on account of price increases to mitigate raw-material cost pressures and emission norm changes. On a sequential basis, revenue jumped strongly by 24% as volumes increased by 22.6%. On the operating front, EBITDA margin came in at 10.7%, down 58bp yoy; however it was ahead of our estimates of 9.4%. Sequentially, operating margin expanded by 128bp from 9.4%, largely due to improved operating leverage, better product mix and a decline in other expenditure. Raw-material cost was more or less stable on a yoy and qoq basis. As
November 4, 2011
a result, operating profit grew by 8.1% yoy (40.8% qoq). Net profit, however, declined by 7.8% yoy to `154cr mainly due to higher interest and depreciation expense. Sequentially, net profit grew substantially by 78.6% on account of improved operating performance, higher other income and lower tax-rate. The stock rating is currently under review.
TVS Motor
TVS Motors (TVSL) 2QFY2012 operating results were ahead of our estimates, driven largely by better-than-expected margin performance. TVSL registered strong 23.2% yoy (14.1% qoq) growth in its top-line to `1,992cr, in-line with our estimates, led by healthy 15.1% yoy (12.7% qoq) growth in total volumes and strong 6.7% yoy (1.5% qoq) growth in net average realization. The scooters segment continued to drive total volume growth, posting a 26.6% yoy (34% qoq) growth. The motorcycle segment witnessed a healthy 14.2% yoy (11% qoq) increase in volumes. EBITDA margin came in 46bp ahead of our estimates at 6.9%, witnessing an expansion of 29bp yoy (24bp qoq). EBITDA margin expansion was aided by improvement in net average realization and a 120bp yoy savings in other expenditure. However, high raw-material cost (raw-material to sales ratio at 75.5% vs. 73.7% in 2QFY2011 and 76.4% in 1QFY2012) restricted further expansion in margins. Led by strong operating performance and decline in interest cost, net profit posted better-than-expected growth of 39.7% yoy (30.1% qoq) to `77cr. At `66, TVSL is trading at 10.8x FY2013E earnings. We retain our Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `74.
November 4, 2011
Bharti Airtel
Bharti Airtel is slated to announce its 2QFY2012 results. We expect the company to record revenue of `17,091cr with merely 0.6% qoq growth due to seasonality in 2Q. This is expected primarily on the back of growth in qoq flat ARPM at `0.43/min and 3.0% qoq decline in MOU to 432. Also, we expect Zains mobile business revenue to grow by 7.4% qoq to `4,703cr, with EBITDA margin of 27.2%. Consolidated EBITDA margin of the company is expected to decline by 88bp qoq to 32.7%. PAT is expected at `1,308cr. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `430.
Nestle 3QCY2011
Nestle is expected to announce its 3QCY2011 results. For the quarter, we expect the company to post modest 17.8% yoy growth in its top line to `1,928cr, aided by steady growth across categories. Earnings for the quarter are expected to register healthy 20.4% yoy growth to `263cr, aided by margin expansion of 84bp to 20.5%. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
growth of 14.3% yoy to `90, aided by top-line growth and margin contraction of 32bp to 15.2%. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
Marico
Marico is expected to announce its 2QFY2012 results. For the quarter, we expect Marico to report healthy 26.3% yoy growth in its consolidated top line to `984cr, driven by steady growth in its core brands, Parachute and Saffola. Maricos earnings for the quarter are expected to remain flat owing to a 90bp yoy operating margin contraction due to high raw-material costs. We maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.
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Q2 FY12E 328
Q2 FY11 338
Q1 FY12 314
Q2 FY12E 1,584 96 6 53
Q2 FY12E 594
Q2 FY11 617
Q1 FY12 518
Q2 FY12E 2,568
Q2 FY11 2,501
Q1 FY12 1,584
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Q1 FY12 q-o-q (%) 92,100 (2,362) (3) (3,719) (76.1) 7.7 (146.7)
Q2 FY12E 530
Q2 FY11 701
Q1 FY12 686
Q2 FY12E 342
Q2 FY11 299
Q1 FY12 347
November 4, 2011
Corporate News
RIL, RCom in talks for sharing telecom infra Hero Motors forays into restaurant business Sesa Goa to acquire Videocon's Goa Energy for `54cr SAIL says JV with Posco still on, uncertain on timing
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
Results Calendar
04/11/2011 ONGC, Bharti Airtel, Nestle, GSK Pharma, GlaxoSmith Con, Marico, Nagarjuna Const. 05/11/2011 Motherson Sumi 07/11/2011 United Spirits, Madras Cements, Punj Lloyd, Prakash Industries 08/11/2011 Reliance Power, Bosch India, Bank of India, IDFC, ABB, Aurobindo Pharma, Monnet Ispat, Finolex Cables IOC, Ranbaxy, Lupin, Power Fin.Corpn., GMR Infra., Glenmark Pharma., Bhushan Steel, Bharat Forge, Tata Comm, ITNL, CESC, 09/11/2011 Apollo Tyres, PTC India 10/11/2011 Tata Steel, Hindalco, Cadila Healthcare, Cummins India, Mahindra Satyam, IRB Infra, Page Industries, CEAT
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Website: www.angelbroking.com
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