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Market Outlook

India Research
November 4, 2011

Dealers Diary
Indian markets are expected to open in the green tracking positive cues from the Asian markets in opening trade and the rally in US and European stocks. US markets rallied for a second day on Thursday as Greece backed away from a proposed referendum. US markets would be eyeing the monthly nonfarm payroll and unemployment data due for release today. The European Central Bank provided a happy surprise to investors with a 25bp interest rate cut, a sign of a more aggressive approach to confront weak growth in the region. The market had expected rates to remain unchanged. Investors responded positively as Greek PM George Papandreou, under pressure from world leaders, climbed down from his proposal of a referendum on the country's bailout package, providing ruling and opposition parties strike a deal to resolve the country's political crisis. European leaders said earlier they were prepared for Greece to leave the euro zone to preserve their 12-year-old single currency if Athens did not decide quickly to implement a bailout programme, threatening the likes of Italy and Spain, and even France.

Domestic Indices BSE Sensex Nifty MID CAP SMALL CAP BSE HC BSE PSU BANKEX AUTO METAL OIL & GAS BSE IT Global Indices Dow Jones NASDAQ FTSE Nikkei Hang Seng Straits Times Shanghai Com

Chg (%) 0.1 0.1 (0.0) 0.0 0.0 0.6 (0.1) (0.4) (0.4) 1.1 (0.7) Chg (%) 1.8 2.2 1.1 (2.2) (2.5) (0.9) 0.2

(Pts) 17.1 7.3 (2.6) (0.3) (0.2) 43.8 (5.7) (36.3) (40.8) 97.1 (42.0) (Pts) 58.0 61.5 (195.1) (491.2) (24.7) 4.0

(Close) 17,482 5,266 6,251 6,932 6,138 7,558 11,233 9,212 11,652 9,055 5,732 (Close) 2,698 5,546 8,640 19,243 2,810 2,508

208.4 12,045

Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 17,429 / 5,250 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 17,580 17,678 / 5,298 5,329 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 17,429 / 5,250 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 17,331 17,180 / 5,218 5,170 levels.
Indices SENSEX NIFTY S2 17,180 5,170 S1 17,331 5,218 R1 17,580 5,298 R2 17,678 5,329

Indian ADRs Infosys Wipro ICICI Bank HDFC Bank

Chg (%) 0.3 1.5 (0.6) (0.2)

(Pts) 0.2 0.2 (0.2) (0.1)

(Close) $58.8 $10.3 $35.9 $32.0

News Analysis
Petrol price hiked by `1.8/liter TRAI proposes easier M&A norms for telecom players L&T bags order worth `875cr in Oman 2QFY2012 Result Reviews SAIL, Gujarat Gas, Ashok Leyland, TVS Motor, Vesuvius India, Goodyear India 2QFY2012 Result Previews ONGC, Bharti Airtel, Nestle, GSK Pharmaceuticals, GSK Consumer, Marico, NCC
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Advances / Declines Advances Declines Unchanged

BSE 1,329 1,460 141

NSE 665 737 87

Net Inflows (November 2, 2011)


` cr FII MFs ` cr Index Futures Stock Futures Purch 1,643 342 Sales 1,449 391 Purch 1,537 1,480 Gainers Company Power Finance Sun TV Network PTC India JSW Steel REC Price (`) 165 273 74 668 194 chg (%) 5.7 5.7 5.0 4.8 4.7 Company Indiabulls Fin SAIL Educomp Sol Mcleod Russel Manappuram Fin. Net 194 (49) Sales 1,971 1,545 Net (434) (65) MTD 228 (442) YTD 743 4,693 Open Interest 14,505 29,037 Losers Price (`) 152 109 265 239 59 chg (%) (5.0) (3.1) (2.9) (2.8) (2.4)

Volumes (` cr) BSE NSE 2,202 9,881

FII Derivatives (November 3, 2011)

Gainers / Losers

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539

Market Outlook | India Research

Petrol price hiked by `1.8/liter


Oil marketing companies (OMCs) have hiked petrol prices by approximately `1.8/liter from November 4, 2011, as firm crude oil prices coupled with depreciating rupee were resulting in higher under-recoveries (revenue losses) on the sale of petrol. However, revenue losses on account of selling petrol at lower prices formed insignificant proportion of the total under-recoveries. During 1HFY2012, oil retailers reported total under-recoveries of `64,900cr mainly on account of selling diesel, kerosene and LPG cylinder at subsidized rates. As on November 1, 2011, OMCs were losing `9.3/liter on diesel, `26.9/liter on kerosene and `260.5 on every domestic LPG cylinder. Factoring in the recent rupee depreciation, the hike in petrol prices is expected to have a insignificant impact on overall under-recoveries. Hence, we continue to maintain our underrecoveries estimates of `100,450cr for FY2012, which is primarily on account of selling diesel, LPG cylinder and kerosene at subsidized prices. We maintain our Buy ratings on ONGC and GAIL with target prices of `326 and `499, respectively.

TRAI proposes easier M&A norms for telecom players


TRAI has recommended that mobile phone companies could merge their operations if the combined market share of the new entity is less than 60%, a substantial increase over the current 40% ceiling. This move is expected to promote consolidation in the crowded and ultra-competitive 14-player telecom market. By this, many telecom operators can get their way out from financial difficulties. TRAI had also earlier said that the combined entity could retain only 14.4MHz spectrum after merging and had to return the rest to the government, but in the new plan it has now allowed the combined entity to hold up to 25% of the total available airwaves in that region. TRAI continues to maintain its recommendation of charging a one-time pan-India fee of `4,572cr for every unit of airwaves telecom operators hold beyond the contracted limit. Overall, we remain Neutral on the telecom sector with Bharti Airtel being our preferred pick.

L&T bags orders worth `875cr in Oman


Larsen & Toubro (L&T) Oman, a subsidiary of L&T, has bagged two orders worth `875cr in the urban infrastructure segment. Orders are from Muscat municipality and Ministry of Transport and Communication, Sultanate of Oman, for construction of two roads. The expected execution period for the two projects is 24 and 41 months. With these orders, the outstanding order book stands at ~`1,44,689cr (3.3x FY2011 revenue), which provides good revenue visibility. At the CMP of `1,381, the stock is trading at 18.7x FY2013E earnings and 2.9x FY2013E P/BV, on a standalone basis. We have used the SOTP methodology to value the company to capture all its business initiatives and investments/stakes in different businesses. Ascribing separate values to its parent business on a P/E basis and investments in subsidiaries on P/E, P/BV and mcap basis, our target price works out to `1,714, which provides 24.2% upside from current levels. We recommend a Buy rating on the stock.
November 4, 2011

Market Outlook | India Research

Result Reviews SAIL


SAIL reported slightly better-than-expected profitability (excluding exceptional items related to forex loss) for 2QFY2012. Net sales grew by 2.2% yoy to `10,837cr (slightly below our estimate of `11,135cr) mainly due to increased realization (+8.7% yoy to `38,023/tonne), partially offset by the decrease in sales volumes (down 5.9% yoy to 2.9mn tonnes). Despite increased realization, EBITDA dipped by 13.9 % yoy to `1,327cr and EBITDA margin contracted by 230bp yoy to 12.2% (higher than our estimate of 11.6%) mainly on account of increases in power and staff costs. Power costs grew by 28.2% yoy to `1,124cr, while staff costs grew by 16.5% yoy to `1,981cr. EBITDA/tonne stood at `4,657 in 2QFY2012, compared to `5,090 in 2QFY2011. The company reported an exceptional item related to forex loss of `509cr in 2QFY2012, compared to forex gain of `153cr in 2QFY2011. Hence, net profit decreased by 54.6% yoy to `495cr. However, excluding exceptional items, adjusted net profit grew by 7.0% yoy to `1,003cr (above our estimate of `836cr) in 2QFY2012. We maintain our Buy view on the stock; our target price is under review.

Gujarat Gas
Gujarat Gas reported its 3QCY2011 results. The companys top line increased by 29.1% yoy to `644cr mainly on account of higher realization. Average sales realization stood at `19.7/scm (+24.7% yoy and +3.4% qoq), led by hike in selling prices of the industrial retail and CNG segments. Natural gas volume sold grew by 3.5% yoy to 326mmscm during the quarter. The companys cost of goods sold increased by 28.8% yoy to `490cr on account of higher proportion of expensive RLNG sales coupled with INR depreciation against the USD. Hence, EBITDA grew by 30.4% yoy (in-line with growth in net sales) to `118cr. Other income grew by 100.9% yoy to `10cr. Consequently, the companys net profit grew by 41.7% yoy to `80cr. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.

Ashok Leyland
Ashok Leyland (AL) reported better-than-expected results for 2QFY2012 on account of above expectation operating margin performance. AL reported 14% yoy growth in its top line to `3,095cr, driven by an 18.7% yoy increase in average net realization. Volume performance, however, was subdued during the quarter, reporting a 3.9% yoy decline. Average net realization improved to `130,970 on account of price increases to mitigate raw-material cost pressures and emission norm changes. On a sequential basis, revenue jumped strongly by 24% as volumes increased by 22.6%. On the operating front, EBITDA margin came in at 10.7%, down 58bp yoy; however it was ahead of our estimates of 9.4%. Sequentially, operating margin expanded by 128bp from 9.4%, largely due to improved operating leverage, better product mix and a decline in other expenditure. Raw-material cost was more or less stable on a yoy and qoq basis. As

November 4, 2011

Market Outlook | India Research

a result, operating profit grew by 8.1% yoy (40.8% qoq). Net profit, however, declined by 7.8% yoy to `154cr mainly due to higher interest and depreciation expense. Sequentially, net profit grew substantially by 78.6% on account of improved operating performance, higher other income and lower tax-rate. The stock rating is currently under review.

TVS Motor
TVS Motors (TVSL) 2QFY2012 operating results were ahead of our estimates, driven largely by better-than-expected margin performance. TVSL registered strong 23.2% yoy (14.1% qoq) growth in its top-line to `1,992cr, in-line with our estimates, led by healthy 15.1% yoy (12.7% qoq) growth in total volumes and strong 6.7% yoy (1.5% qoq) growth in net average realization. The scooters segment continued to drive total volume growth, posting a 26.6% yoy (34% qoq) growth. The motorcycle segment witnessed a healthy 14.2% yoy (11% qoq) increase in volumes. EBITDA margin came in 46bp ahead of our estimates at 6.9%, witnessing an expansion of 29bp yoy (24bp qoq). EBITDA margin expansion was aided by improvement in net average realization and a 120bp yoy savings in other expenditure. However, high raw-material cost (raw-material to sales ratio at 75.5% vs. 73.7% in 2QFY2011 and 76.4% in 1QFY2012) restricted further expansion in margins. Led by strong operating performance and decline in interest cost, net profit posted better-than-expected growth of 39.7% yoy (30.1% qoq) to `77cr. At `66, TVSL is trading at 10.8x FY2013E earnings. We retain our Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `74.

Vesuvius India (VIL) - 3QCY2011


VIL reported topline growth by 22% yoy to `138cr in 3QCY2011 from `114cr in 3QCY2010 while margins contracted by 175bps due to increase in other expenses. PAT grew by 12% to `14.5cr as compared to `13cr in same quarter last year, whereas on a qoq basis, it remained flat. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price to `448 based on a target PE of 14x its CY2012E earnings.

Goodyear India 3QCY2011


Goodyear Indias revenue grew by 16% yoy to `395cr in 3QCY2011 from `341cr in 3QCY2010. OPM for the quarter contracted by 358bp yoy to 7.1% in 3QCY2011 (9.3% in 3QCY2010) due to increased raw-material cost; whereas on a qoq basis, OPM increased marginally by 62bp from 6.5% in 2QCY2011 due to stable rubber prices. PAT for the quarter dipped by 16% yoy to `16cr as compared to `19cr in 3QCY2010 on account of higher depreciation and interest costs. We have revised our target price downwards to `367, based on target PE of 8x its CY2012E earnings with a Buy rating on the stock.

November 4, 2011

Market Outlook | India Research

Result Previews ONGC


ONGC is slated to announce its 2QFY2012 results. We expect the companys top line to grow by 24.7% yoy to `22,991cr mainly on account of higher realization. ONGC's subsidy amount for 2QFY2012 would be significantly lower than 1QFY2012 due to (1) price increases on diesel, kerosene and LPG and (2) excise tax reduction on diesel and customs duty cuts on crude oil, diesel and gasoline implemented by the government during June 2011. On the operating front, EBITDA margin is expected to decline by 495bp yoy to 55.0%. The bottom line is expected to grow by 14.3% yoy to `6,161cr. We maintain our Buy view on the stock with a target price of `326.

Bharti Airtel
Bharti Airtel is slated to announce its 2QFY2012 results. We expect the company to record revenue of `17,091cr with merely 0.6% qoq growth due to seasonality in 2Q. This is expected primarily on the back of growth in qoq flat ARPM at `0.43/min and 3.0% qoq decline in MOU to 432. Also, we expect Zains mobile business revenue to grow by 7.4% qoq to `4,703cr, with EBITDA margin of 27.2%. Consolidated EBITDA margin of the company is expected to decline by 88bp qoq to 32.7%. PAT is expected at `1,308cr. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `430.

Nestle 3QCY2011
Nestle is expected to announce its 3QCY2011 results. For the quarter, we expect the company to post modest 17.8% yoy growth in its top line to `1,928cr, aided by steady growth across categories. Earnings for the quarter are expected to register healthy 20.4% yoy growth to `263cr, aided by margin expansion of 84bp to 20.5%. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.

GSK Pharmaceuticals 3QCY2011


GSK Pharmaceuticals is expected to announce its 3QCY2011 results. For the quarter, we expect the company to post modest 7.8% yoy growth in its top line to `627cr, aided by steady growth across categories. Earnings for the quarter are expected to register healthy 2.7% yoy growth to `162cr, aided by margin dip of 350bp to 32.4%. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.

GSK Consumer 3QCY2011


GSK Consumer is slated to announce its 3QCY2011 numbers. For the quarter, we expect GSK Consumer to post healthy top-line growth of 20% yoy to `735cr, driven by growth in its core brands. The bottom line is expected to register modest
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Market Outlook | India Research

growth of 14.3% yoy to `90, aided by top-line growth and margin contraction of 32bp to 15.2%. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.

Marico
Marico is expected to announce its 2QFY2012 results. For the quarter, we expect Marico to report healthy 26.3% yoy growth in its consolidated top line to `984cr, driven by steady growth in its core brands, Parachute and Saffola. Maricos earnings for the quarter are expected to remain flat owing to a 90bp yoy operating margin contraction due to high raw-material costs. We maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.

Nagarjuna Construction Company


We expect subdued performance from Nagarjuna Construction (NCC) for this quarter. On the top-line front, NCC is expected to post modest yoy growth of 5.0% to `1,261cr. EBITDA margin is expected to be flat at ~10.3% for the quarter. However, the blow is expected on the earnings front, as we expect the company to post a decline of 35.1% on a yoy basis to `29.8cr (`46.0cr) for the quarter. This would be primarily on account of burgeoning interest cost (yoy jump of ~79.4%), led by elongated working capital cycle. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `82.

November 4, 2011

Market Outlook | India Research

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimates


Bharti Airtel Ltd - Consolidated (04/11/2011)
Particulars (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Net profit
Source: Bloomberg

Q2 FY12E 17,341 5,916 34 1,262

Q2 FY11 y-o-y (%) 15,215 5,121 34 1,661 (24.0) 14.0 15.5

Q1 FY12 q-o-q (%) 16,975 5,706 34 1,215 3.8 2.2 3.7

Glaxosmithkline Pharma Ltd - (04/11/2011)


Particulars (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Net profit
Source: Bloomberg

Q2 FY12E 655 232 35 174

Q2 FY11 y-o-y (%) 582 216 37 158 10.1 12.5 7.4

Q1 FY12 q-o-q (%) 562 199 35 148 17.8 16.6 16.3

Nestle Ltd - (04/11/2011)


Particulars (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Net profit
Source: Bloomberg

Q2 FY12E 1,983 392 20 258

Q2 FY11 y-o-y (%) 1,637 326 20 219 18.1 21.1 20.1

Q1 FY12 q-o-q (%) 1,763 349 20 214 20.7 12.5 12.0

ONGC Ltd - (04/11/2011)


Particulars (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Net profit
Source: Bloomberg

Q2 FY12E 20,817 12,924 62 6,564

Q2 FY11 y-o-y (%) 18,194 11,322 62 5,389 21.8 14.4 14.1

Q1 FY12 q-o-q (%) 16,198 9,470 58 4,095 60.3 28.5 36.5

United Spirits Ltd - (07/11/2011)


Particulars (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Net profit
Source: Bloomberg

Q2 FY12E 1,699 263 15 88

Q2 FY11 y-o-y (%) 1,354 230 17 75 17.3 25.5 14.2

Q1 FY12 q-o-q (%) 1,935 339 18 138 (36.5) (12.2) (22.4)

November 4, 2011

Market Outlook | India Research

IDFC Ltd - Consolidated (08/11/2011)


Particulars (` in cr) Net Profit
Source: Company, Bloomberg

Q2 FY12E 328

Q2 FY11 338

y-o-y (%) (3.0)

Q1 FY12 314

q-o-q (%) 4.7

ABB Ltd - (08/11/2011)


Particulars (` cr) Net Sales EBITDA EBITDA margins (%) Net Profit
Source: Bloomberg

Q2 FY12E 1,584 96 6 53

Q2 FY11 y-o-y (%) 1,334 (13) (1) 12 357.4 18.7 (814.2)

Q1 FY12 q-o-q (%) 1,693 83 5 39 35.9 (6.4) 14.7

Reliance Power Ltd - (08/11/2011)


Particulars (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Net profit
Source: Bloomberg

Q2 FY12E 495 159 32 157

Q2 FY11 y-o-y (%) 169 28 17 235 (33.3) 193.4 464.7

Q1 FY12 q-o-q (%) 542 185 34 196 (20.1) (8.7) (13.9)

Bank of India Ltd - (08/11/2011)


Particulars (` in cr) Net Profit
Source: Company, Bloomberg

Q2 FY12E 594

Q2 FY11 617

y-o-y (%) (3.7)

Q1 FY12 518

q-o-q (%) 14.8

State Bank of India Ltd - (09/11/2011)


Particulars (` in cr) Net Profit
Source: Company, Bloomberg

Q2 FY12E 2,568

Q2 FY11 2,501

y-o-y (%) 2.7

Q1 FY12 1,584

q-o-q (%) 62.2

GMR Infrastructure Ltd - consolidated (09/11/2011)


Particulars (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Net profit
Source: Bloomberg

Q2 FY12E 1,747 472 27 (64)

Q2 FY11 y-o-y (%) 1,222 356 29 71 (190.1) 43.0 32.5

Q1 FY12 q-o-q (%) 1,864 498 27 (67) (4.2) (6.3) (5.3)

November 4, 2011

Market Outlook | India Research

IOC Ltd - (09/11/2011)


Particulars (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Net profit
Source: Bloomberg

Q2 FY12E 99,170 1,104 1 (890)

Q2 FY11 y-o-y (%) 69,337 6,690 10 5,294 (116.8) 43.0 (83.5)

Q1 FY12 q-o-q (%) 92,100 (2,362) (3) (3,719) (76.1) 7.7 (146.7)

Lupin Ltd - (09/11/2011)


Particulars (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Net profit
Source: Bloomberg

Q2 FY12E 1,644 329 20 246

Q2 FY11 y-o-y (%) 1,405 299 21 215 14.6 17.0 10.2

Q1 FY12 q-o-q (%) 1,543 294 19 210 17.3 6.5 11.8

Power Finance Corporation Ltd - (09/11/2011)


Particulars (` cr) Net Profit
Source: Company, Bloomberg

Q2 FY12E 530

Q2 FY11 701

y-o-y (%) (24.3)

Q1 FY12 686

q-o-q (%) (22.7)

Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd - consolidated (09/11/2011)


Particulars (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Net profit
Source: Bloomberg

Q3 CY11E 2,105 214 10 137

Q3 CY10 y-o-y (%) 1,884 139 7 308 (55.5) 11.8 54.3

Q2 CY11 q-o-q (%) 2,054 115 6 243 (43.7) 2.5 85.4

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Ltd - Consolidated (09/11/2011)


Particulars (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Net profit
Source: Bloomberg

Q2 FY12E 911 283 31 178

Q2 FY11 y-o-y (%) 724 187 26 112 59.8 25.7 51.2

Q1 FY12 q-o-q (%) 868 297 34 210 (15.1) 4.9 (4.7)

Shriram Transport Finance Ltd - (09/11/2011)


Particulars (` cr) Net Profit
Source: Company, Bloomberg

Q2 FY12E 342

Q2 FY11 299

y-o-y (%) 14.5

Q1 FY12 347

q-o-q (%) (1.5)

November 4, 2011

Market Outlook | India Research

Economic and Political News


India's services sector contracts for the second straight month in October 2011 No let-up, food inflation rises to 12.21% for the week ended October 22 Power plants' coal stocks dip below 'critical' level Lock-in for FIIs in infra debt cut to one year

Corporate News
RIL, RCom in talks for sharing telecom infra Hero Motors forays into restaurant business Sesa Goa to acquire Videocon's Goa Energy for `54cr SAIL says JV with Posco still on, uncertain on timing
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

Results Calendar
04/11/2011 ONGC, Bharti Airtel, Nestle, GSK Pharma, GlaxoSmith Con, Marico, Nagarjuna Const. 05/11/2011 Motherson Sumi 07/11/2011 United Spirits, Madras Cements, Punj Lloyd, Prakash Industries 08/11/2011 Reliance Power, Bosch India, Bank of India, IDFC, ABB, Aurobindo Pharma, Monnet Ispat, Finolex Cables IOC, Ranbaxy, Lupin, Power Fin.Corpn., GMR Infra., Glenmark Pharma., Bhushan Steel, Bharat Forge, Tata Comm, ITNL, CESC, 09/11/2011 Apollo Tyres, PTC India 10/11/2011 Tata Steel, Hindalco, Cadila Healthcare, Cummins India, Mahindra Satyam, IRB Infra, Page Industries, CEAT

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Market Outlook | India Research

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800

E-mail: research@angelbroking.com

Website: www.angelbroking.com

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