Probability

Probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event to occur

Theoretical Probability
It is based on the possible chances of something to happen. The theoretical probability is
mainly based on the reasoning behind probability. For example, if a coin is tossed, the
theoretical probability of getting a head will be ½ .

Experimental Probability: It is based on the basis of the observations of an experiment.

Experimental probability can be calculated based on the number of possible outcomes by the
total number of trials. For example, if a coin is tossed 10 times and head is recorded 6 times
then, the experimental probability for heads is 6/10 or, 3/5.

Axiomatic Probability: In axiomatic probability, a set of rules or axioms are set which
applies to all types. These axioms are set by Kolmogorov and are known as Kolmogorov’s
three axioms. With the axiomatic approach to probability, the chances of occurrence or non-
occurrence of the events can be quantified. The Axiomatic Probability lesson covers this
concept in detail with Kolmogorov’s three rules (axioms) along with various examples.
Random Experiment: A random experiment is any well-defined procedure that produces
an observable outcome that could not be perfectly predicted in
advance.
(1) Sample space: A sample space is a collection or a set of possible outcomes of a
random experiment.
Elements of sample space are called sample points
1. Sample space if a coin is tossed
2. sample space if a dice is rolled
3. sample space if we toss two coin
4. sample sapce if we roll two dice
5. If the second throw result in a head, a die is thrown otherwise coin is thrwon. Describe the
sample space for this experiment.
Ans Total 16 sample point
Event:
The outcomes of an experiment
Any subset of sample space

Favourable outcomes
Probability =
Total outcomes
6. Find probability of getting two heads if two coins are tossed
7. Probability of getting exactly two heads if three coins are tossed
8. Three dice are rolled. Find probability of getting different numbers on the three dice
5
Ans
9
9. Find probability of getting at-least two heads if three coins are tossed
10. A bag contains 6 white and 4 black balls. A die is rolled once and the number of ball
equal to the number obtained on the die are drawn from the bag at random. The
probability that all the balls drawn are white is
1
Ans
5
In probability there is no effect if we throw coins altogether or alternate.
11. If five coins are tossed
(i) Probability of getting exactly two heads
(ii) Probability of getting at least two heads
12. If 10 coins are tossed,
(i) Probability of getting exactly 8 heads
(ii) Probability of getting at least 8 heads
(iii) Probability of heads and tails alternatively
(iv) Probability of heads exactly as many times in first 7 throw as in last three
 7  3   1   7  3   1   7  3   1   7  3   1  56
Ans:  0  0   10  +  1  1   10  +  2  2   10  +  3  3   10  = 10
    2      2      2      2  2
(v) Heads odd number of times
1
Ans
2
(vi) Sequence of six or more consecutive heads
6 7
1 1 48
Ans   +    4 = 10
2 2 2
(vii) No two consecutive heads

1 10  1  9  1  8  1  7  1  6  1 144
Ans +  +  +  +  +  =
210  1  210  2  210  3  210  2  210  5  210 210
13. Six dice are thrown. Find probability of getting exactly 4 sixes
14. A pair of dice is thrown.
(i) Find the probability of getting sum of digits on dice 11
(ii) Find probability of getting doublet
(iii) Find probability of getting sum of number of on dice greater than or equal to 9
15. A pair of dice is thrown 6 times.
(i) Find probability of sum of number >=9 on dice exactly four times
(ii) Find probability of sum of number >= 9 on dice atleast four times
(iii) If getting prime number on each dice is considered as success find probability
of getting 2 success
(iv) If getting prime number on at least one dice is considered as succes, find
probability of three success.
16. A bag contains five white and seven black balls,
(i) what is the probability of getting 5 white balls
(ii) Six balls are drawn from same bag, what is probability of getting four white
balls.
(iii) One ball is missing from this bag, a ball is drawn find the probability that ball is
white ball
(iv) Two balls are missing from this bag, a ball is drawn find the probability that ball
is white ball
(v) Five balls are missing from this bag, a ball is drawn find the probability that ball
is white ball.
(vi) 11 balls are missing from this bag, a ball is drawn find the probability that ball
is white ball.
 6  5 4 3 7 6 2  5 5
Ans (ii)  4        (iii) (iv)
   12 11 10 9 8 7  12 12

7  7  5   7  5   7  5   7  5 
5  4  1   3  2   2  3    
Ans (v)   5 +    4 +    3 +    2 +  1  4  1
12  7 12  7 12  7  12  7  12  7
5  5  5  5  5 
         

5
Ans (vi)
12
17. Five boys and seven girls are arranged in a line. Find the probability that no two boys
are together.

8
( 7!)   5!
Ans  
5
12!
18. let three bags A, B, C each contains five white and seven black balls. Now a ball is
transferred from A to B, and then from B to C. Now a ball is drawn from Bag C. Find
probability that ball drawn is white.
19. let three bags A, B, C each contains five white and seven black balls and one empty
bag D. Now from each bag A, B, C one ball is transferred to bag D. Now a ball is
drawn from bag D, find probability that ball drawn is white.
20. A bag contains 5 white, 7 Black, 4 Red, 4 Yellow.
(i) Now six balls are drawn from this bag then what is the probability that exactly
two of them are white ball.
(ii) Now six balls are drawn from this bag with replacement then what is the
probability that two of them are white.

 6   5 4 15 14 13 12   6   5   15 
2 4

Ans (i)  2        (ii)  2    

   20 19 18 17 16 15     20   20 
Note: Unordered method does not work if replacement of ball is there.
21. A bag contains 5 white, 7 Black, 6 Red, 2 Yellow
(i) 6 balls are drawn what is the probability that 2 are white and 2 are red
(ii) Four balls are drawn, find the probability that there is one white, one black, one
Red, and 1 Yellow

 5  6  9 
   
6!  2  2  2   5 7 6 2
(i) (ii) 4!    
2!2!2!  20   20 19 18 17 
 6
 
22. an urn A contains 6 red and 4 white balls and urn B contains 4 Red and 6 black balls.
One ball is drawn at random and from urn A and placed in urn B, and then one ball is
drawn from urn B and placed in urn A. Now one ball is drawn from urn A, then what
32
is the probability that it is Red Ans
55
23. An unbiased die is tossed until a number greater than 4 appears. The probability that an even
2
number of tosses is needed is Ans
5
24. Three six faced dice are rolled together. Find the probability that exactly two of the
90
three numbers are equal Ans
216
25. A box contains 24 identical balls, of which 12 are white and 12 are black. The balls are
drawn at random from the box one at a time with replacement. The probability that a white
5
ball is drawn for the 4th time on the 7th draw is Ans
32
26. A bag contains 12 Red balls and 6 white balls. 6 balls are drawn one by one without
replacement of which at-least four balls are white. Find the probability that in next two
draw exactly one white ball is drawn. (IIT-JEE 2004)
27. From a well shuffled pack of cards.
(i) four cards are drawn ,find the probability that two are spade.
(ii) Six cards are drawn, find probability that two are spades, 2 are hearts.
(iii) six cards are drawn with replacement, find the probability that two are spade, 2
are hearts.
(iv) six cards are drawn with replacement, find the probability that two are spade, 2
are kings.

13  39  13 13  26 

 2  2   2  2  2 
Ans (i)    (ii)    
 52   52 
2  6 
   

 6   4   48 
2 2 2 2 2
6!  13   13   26 
(iii)       (iv)  4    
2!2!2!  52   52   52     52   52 
28. A problem in mathematics is given to three students and their respective probability of
1 1 1
solving problem are , , . Find the probability that problem is solved.
2 3 4
29. Two numbers are selected randomly from a set S = 1,2,3,4,5,6 without replacement.
Find the probability that minimum of two number is less than 4.
30. Seven white balls and three black balls are randomly placed in a row. The probability
7
that no two black balls are placed adjacently, equals Ans:
15
31. four cards are drawn at random from pack of 52 cards.
(i) What is probability of getting exactly two kings.
(ii) What is probability of getting different suits.
(iii) What is probability of getting different suits if replacement is allowed.
(iv) What is probability of getting same suit.
(v) What is probability of getting same suit with replacement.
(vi) What is probability of getting different suits and different denomination.
(vii) What is probability of getting two pairs.
(viii) What is probability of one pair.
(ix) What is probability of one pair and one trail
(x) What is probability of one trail.
(xi) What is probability of two kings and two club.
32. From a pack of 52 cards, cards are drawn one by one untill all the kings are drawn.
Find the probability that this experiment end in 5th trial.

 4  48 
 2  2 
Ans:    
2
 52  48
 4
 
33. From a bag containing 5 white and 7 black balls, balls are drawn one by one until two
white balls are drawn. Find probability that this experiment finishes in exactly 4 trials.
 5  7 
1  2 
Ans:    
4
12  9
3 
 
34. Three person A, B, C throws a dice one by one starting with A. Whoever gets six will
win the game. Then find probabilities of Winning of A, B, C?
36 30 25
Ans: P ( A ) = ,P ( B ) = ,P ( C ) =
91 91 91
35. What is probability of getting exactly 9 cards of same suit in one hand in a game of
bridge.
36. 6 cards are drawn at random from a pack of 52 cards with replacement.
(i) What is probability that all four suits represented at least once.
(ii) What is probability that 6 drawing are required to get all four suits.
1560 600
Ans: (i) (ii)
46 46
37. The odds against A solving problem are 4:3 and odd in favour of B solving a problem
is 7:5. What is probability that problem is solved.
38. If p and q are chosen randomly from the set 1,2,3,4,.....,10 with replacement. Find
31
the probability that roots of equation x 2 + px + q = 0 are real Ans:
50
39. A bag Contains 15 Coupon numbered from 1 to 15. seven coupons are drawn with
97 − 87
replacement. Find the Probability that largest number is 9. Ans:
157
40. 6 dice are thrown
(i) Find probability of getting atmost one six.
(ii) Six even number of times
(iii) All possible faces
(iv) Exactly three different numbers 1, 2, 5
(v) Exactly three different numbers
(vi) Same number on at least four dice
(vii) A total of 20
6
2
1+  
11  55 3 6!
Ans: (i) (ii) (iii)
66 2 66

41. A box contains 100 tickets numbered 1,2, 3, …, n. Two tickets are chosen at random.
It is given that maximum number on the tickets is not more than 10. Find the
1
probability that minimum number is more than 5. Ans:
9
42. A pair of dice is rolled till a sum of 5 or sum of 7 is obtained then find the probability t
2
hat 5 come before 7. Ans:
5
43. From a pack of 52 playing cards, three cards are drawn at random. Find the probability
16
of drawing A king, A queen, A knave. Ans:
5525
44. An urn contains 2 white and 2 black balls. A ball is drawn at random. If it is white, it
is not replaced into urn, otherwise it is replaced along with another ball of same
colour. The process is repeated, find the probability that third ball drawn is black.
Mutually Exclusive Event:
Two events are said to be mutually exclusive (or disjoint or incompatible ). If
occurrence of one percludes (rules out) the simultaneous occurrence of other.
If A and B are to mutually exclusive events then P ( A and B ) = 0

Equally Likely Events:

Events are said to be equamaxlly likelly when each event is as likely to occur as any
other.
Exhaustive Event:
Events A, B, C,… are said to be exhaustive event if no event outside this set can take
result as an outcome of an experiment
Experiment Events EL ME EXHAUSTIVE
Events

1. Throwing of A: throwing an
a die odd face
{1,3,5}
B: throwing a
composite {4,
6}
2. A ball is E1: getting a W
drawn from an ball
urn containing E2: getting a R
2W, 3R, 4B ball
E3: getting a G
ball
3. Throwing a A: Throwing a
pair of dice doublet
B: throwing a
total of 10 or
more
4. From a well E1: getting a
shuffled pack of heart
cards a card is E2: getting a
drawn spade
E3: getting a
diamond
E4: getting a
club
5. From a well A: getting a
shuffled pack of heart
a cards, a card B: getting a
is drawn face card
Independent and dependent Events:

• Dependent events influence the probability of other events – or their probability of

occurring is affected by other events.
• Independent events do not affect one another and do not increase or decrease the
probability of another event happening

Conditional Probability:
The probability of occurrence of an event E1 , given that E 2 has already occurred is called
conditional probability of occurrence of E1 on condition that E 2 has occurred.

n ( E1  E 2 )
 E  P ( E1  E 2 ) n (S)
And it is denoted by P  1  = =
 E2  P ( E2 ) n ( E2 )
n ( S)

45. A bag contains 5 white, 7 Black, one ball is missing from the bag, thereafter a ball is
drawn and it is found to be white. What is the probability that missing ball was white.
46. A dice is thrown 3 times and sum of 3 number is 15. Find the probability that first
throw was four.
Bay’s Theorem
47. A person goes to office either by car, scooter, bus or train probability of which being
1 3 2 1
, , , and , respectively. Probability that he reaches offices late, if he takes car,
7 7 7 7
2 1 4 1
scooter, bus or train is , , and respectively. Given that he reached office in
9 9 9 9
1
time, then what is the probability that he travelled by a car? Ans:
7
48. From a pack of 52 cards, two cards are accidently dropped there after a card is drawn
and it is found to be club. What is probability that dropped card is also club?
13 
2
   11
 52  50
2 
Ans  
13   13  39   39 
2     
   11 +  1  1   12 +  2   13
 52  50  52  50  52  50
2  2  2 
     
49. A letter is known to have come from CHENNAI, JAIPUR, NAINITAL, DUBAI,
MUMBAI. On the post mark only two consecutive letter AI are legible. Then
84
Probability that it came from Mumbai Ans:
403
50. A box B1 contains 1 white ball, 3 red balls, 2 black balls. Another box B2 contains 2
white, 3 Red and 4 Black balls. A third bag B3 contains 3 white and 4 red and 5 black
balls.
(i) If 2 balls are drawn (without replacement) from a randomly selected bag and
one of the balls is white and other ball is red. Probability that these two balls are
drawn from B2 .

(ii) If 1 ball is drawn from each bag B1 , B2 , B3 the probability that all three drawn
balls are of same colour. IITJEE-(2013)
51. Football teams T1 , T2 have to play two games against each other. It is assumed that
outcomes of two games are independent. The probabilities of T1 winning, drawing
1 1 1
and losing games against T2 are , , . Each team gets 3 points for a win, 1 Point for
2 6 3
a draw and 0 points for a loss. Find probability that both teams scored same point.
52. In a test an examinee either guesses or copies or knows the answer to a multiple-
1
choice question with four choices. The probability that he makes a guess is and the
3
1
probability that he copies the answer is . The probability that his answer is correct
6
1
given that he copied it, is . Find the probability that he knew the answer to the
8
24
question given that he correctly answered it. Ans:
29
53. In a multiple-choice question there are four alternative answers, of which one or more
are correct. A candidate will get marks in the question only if he ticks the correct
answers. The candidates decide to tick the answers at random, if he is allowed upto
three chances to answer the questions, find the probability that he will get marks in the
1
question. Ans:
5
54. A person A is known to speak truth 3 out of 5 times and person B is known to speak
truth 4 out of 5 times. A Dice is thrown and both say it is six. What is the probability
that it is actually a six?
(1) HHHHHHHHHH (2) HHHHHHHHHT (3)HHHHHHHHTH
(4) HHHHHHHHTT (5) HHHHHHHTHH (6) HHHHHHHTHT
(7) HHHHHHHTTH (8) HHHHHHHTTT (9) HHHHHHTHHH
(10) HHHHHHTHHT (11) HHHHHHTHTH (12) HHHHHHTHTT
(13) HHHHHHTTHH (14) HHHHHHTTHT (15) HHHHHHTTTH
(16) HHHHHHTTTT (17) HHHTHHHHHH (18) HHTHHHHHHH
(19) HHTHHHHHHT (20) HHTTHHHHHH (21) HTHHHHHHHH
(22) HTHHHHHHHT (23) HTHHHHHHTH (24) HTHHHHHHTT
(25) HTHTHHHHHH (26) HTTHHHHHHH (27) HTTHHHHHHT
(28) HTTTHHHHHH (29) THHHHHHHHH (30) THHHHHHHHT
(31) THHHHHHHTH (32) THHHHHHHTT (33) THHHHHHTHH
(34) THHHHHHTHT (35) THHHHHHTTH (36) THHHHHHTTT
(37) THHTHHHHHH (38) THTHHHHHHH (39) THTHHHHHHT
(40) THTTHHHHHH (41) TTHHHHHHHH (42) TTHHHHHHHT
(43) TTHHHHHHTH (44) TTHHHHHHTT (45) TTHTHHHHHH
(46) TTTHHHHHHH (47) TTTHHHHHHT (48) TTTTHHHHHH
A, B, C, D, AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, CD, ABC, ABD, ACD, BCD, ABCD