Pertamina Energy Outlook 2023

Jakarta, 19 March 2024

 The future of energy has never been this uncertain, given multiple
contrasting trends

ILLUSTRATIVE AND NOT EXHAUSTIVE

Continued acceleration of certain low-carbon technologies

in 2022 and 2023, with record investment low-carbon energy at ~$1.8 All-time high fossil fuel demand
trillion in 2022, but slow-down in others globally, as energy security and economic
growth become key focus for governments
+6% Biofuel demand globally in 2023, Indonesia implements
B35, highest biodiesel blending globally 101.7 million barrels per day of oil
18% EV2 sales globally in 2023, although strong difference by demand in 2023, reaching a new high and
region, with China leading (35%) and US, Indonesia still at the with a strong growth of 2.3 million barrels
beginning (8% and 5%) per day, significantly above historical
average
+50% growth in solar installation in 2023, vastly exceeding the
239 GW2 installed in 20221. Strong growth in Indonesia (2.5x
in 2023), but from very low base (0.2 GW2) in 2022
385+ bcfd2 of gas were sold globally
in 2023, of which ~12.5% was LNG2,
achieving an all-time high in LNG2 sales
<2% of clean hydrogen projects announced globally have
reached FID2, outlining a long delay vs previously expected uptake

1. Preliminary installation figures for 2023 indicate between 340-400 GW installed globally
2. FiD = Final investment decision; LNG = Liquified natural gas; bcfd = billions cubic feet per day; GW = Gigawatt; EV = Electric vehicle
www.pertamina.com 5
Source: IEA, press search, EV volumes
 Most institutions have a wide range of scenarios to account
for future uncertainty – oil
Estimated temperature
increase by 2100
Global oil1 demand, MMb/d3

130
120 OPEC3 - Laissez-faire OPEC3
range: High uncertainty on future
110 ~3.02
OPEC3 - Advanced technology 20% global oil demand, between 120
100 IEA3 - STEPS3
2.6 MMb/d3 of OPEC3 to <20 in BP3
90 Historical IEA3 Net Zero scenario
80 Rystad 2.2 2.2 range:
Rystad
70 BP3– New ~2.5 48%
Each institution, including IEA3,
range:
momentum
85% have a wide range of scenarios
60 BP3
Rystad 1.9 1.9 2.1 to account for potential
50 IEA3 - APS3
range:
70% uncertainty and craft resilient
40
strategies to each scenario
30
Rystad 1.6 1.6
20 1.5
BP3 – Net zero
10
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
1. Including biofuels, synfuels NGLs
2. High-level estimation for OPEC, as only oil is modelled - without modelling the full energy sector, an accurate view on degree warming is not
possible
3. MMb/d = Million barrels per day; OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries; IEA = International Energy Association; STEPS =
Stated Policies Scenario; APS = Announced Pledges Scenario; BP = British Petroleum

www.pertamina.com Source: BP Energy Outlook 2023, Shell Energy Transition Scenarios 2023, IEA World Energy Outlook 2023, OPEC World Oil Outlook 2023 6
PEO developed 3 scenarios to take into account uncertainties on economic
growth rate and pace of energy transition

Methodology Output – Scenario Matrix

1. Define key uncertainties: Economic Growth High
and Energy Transition
2. Create scenario matrix Economic
3. Define 3 scenarios: Renaissance
a. Economic Renaissance (ER): GDP
scenario which achieves government Economic
aspiration, rapid energy transition. Growth
b. Appropriate Sustainability: Moderate
GDP growth & energy transition Ordinary Appropriate
c. Ordinary State: Moderate GDP growth & State Sustainability
low energy transition

Low
Low Energy Transition High
References (Non exhaustive):
 GDP growth: Bappenas (ER), EIU (OS & AS)  Historical energy consumption: HEESI - KESDM  Roadmap biofuel: Regulation (B30) & President
 Population growth: BPS projection  Industry portion to GDP: Kemenperin (20% OS & AS; Aspiration (B50)
26% ER)  Vehicle sales based on elasticity to GDP per capita.
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 Our scenarios results in three energy demand pathway going forward
GDP growth (2025-2045) NRE by 2060 Coal Oil Gas NRE GDP growth Energy sector emission

Pertamina Energy Outlook Scenarios

4.3% 4.3% 6.3%
31% 48% 73%

Ordinary State Appropriate Sustainability Economic Renaissance

Moderate GDP, Focus on economic growth and Moderate GDP, commit to energy transition High GDP, Tech breakthroughs towards NZE
energy security (Slower Transition) (Moderate) and security (Rapid Energy Transition)
50 8 50 8 50 8
7
40 40

GDP Growth (%)

40

GDP Growth (%)

GDP Growth (%)

6 6 6
Million TJ

Million TJ
30 30 30 5
4 4 4
20

Million TJ
20 20 3
2 2 2
10 10 10
1
0 0 0 0 0 0
2019

2049
2022
2025
2028
2031
2034
2037
2040
2043
2046

2052
2055
2058

2019

2052
2022
2025
2028
2031
2034
2037
2040
2043
2046
2049

2055
2058

2019
2022
2025
2028
2031
2034
2037
2040
2043
2046
2049
2052
2055
2058
MTCOe

MTCOe

MTCOe
1,500 1,500 1,500
Peak 2051 Peak 2039
1,000 1,000 1,000
500 500 500
0 0 0
2019 23 27 31 35 39 43 47 51 55 2060 2019 23 27 31 35 39 43 47 51 55 2060 2019 23 27 31 35 39 43 47 51 55 2060

Note: GDP growth calculated between 2019 and 2060

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Broad range of implications on potential Indonesia energy mix leading up
to 2060
All in million TJ
Ordinary State Appropriate Sustainability Economic Renaissance

Coal Oil Gas Renewables

Future most uncertain, depends Future uncertain, dependent on Most resilient future across Grow in all scenarios, needed
on rate of energy transition in road sector policy (e.g., EV, scenarios, potential to replace for energy transition
power and industry biofuel) coal and support renewables

30 30 30 30

25 25 25 25

20 20 20 20 3.3x
range
15 15 15 15

10 10 10 10
3.1x
range 1.2x
5 5 2.4x 5 range 5
range
0 0 0 0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2000 2020 2040 2060 2000 2020 2040 2060 2000 2020 2040 2060

1. High energy transition refers to a major shift towards clean energy, sufficient to help the country achieve net zero by the target year. Low energy transition would see fossil fuels taking a large
share of energy mix over clean energy.
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 Power & Industry: Strategic choices that influence the energy
trilemma across sectors
Rank of preference: High Medium Low

Coal Gas CCS2 (coal or gas) Geothermal RES2

Key Constraint No new coal in power from Increasing costs due to Commercial challenges due Economic challenges and Low resource in high-
20301 reserves types and to high costs and uncertain admin complexity demand regions (e.g., Java)
insufficient infrastructure for carbon pricing – needs
distribution strong regulatory support

A Security Abundant coal reserve Stable with potential Abundant coal & gas Biggest potential Sufficient local
locally resources to be domestic reserves globally, located in resource, although
monetized and Java and Sumatra mismatch for solar as
explored Java has low
irradiation

B Affordability Most affordable today More expensive than Higher costs due to Higher than global High initial cost,
coal, but cheaper than CCS2 implementation average due to decreasing with
other alternatives geology, tariff and technology advances
admin complexity

C Sustainability Highest emissions Better than coal, with Improved emissions Limited/no emissions No emission
among options emission ~60% lower over standard coal;
~10% remaining
emissions

1. Excluding plants already in construction; Coal still can be used for off-grid applications & furnaces
2. CCS = Carbon capture & storage, RES = Renewable energies
www.pertamina.com 10
 In industrial sector, gas will support demand even in stronger
transition scenario
Industry final energy (mtoe1)
Biomass Electricity Others Natural Gas Coal DEN high (Jan 11)

PEO1-AS1 PEO1-ER1 Key takeaways

300 • Lower energy demand in

Thousands
AS for Industrial caused by
250 31
lower industrial growth
Thousands

29
250
27 compared to ER.
65
200 24 61 • Gas can support further
200 53 decarbonization in
21 44
25 37
Industrial sector, replacing
19 17
150 18
34 higher emission coal.
17
27
150 13
15 16
14 23
25
10 • Opportunity to develop
20 10 13 24
100 12 18 7
8 19 79 95
gas in industrial sector
11 15 100 12 8 106
10 13 6
7
44 49 53 16
61 113 across scenarios.
11 6 38 10 6 40
59 5 25
31 11
20 5 25
6 15
50 8 50 6 16
4 8
13 4
50 52 54 55 56 55 52 13 58 65 64 59
46 44 49 50
24 38
24
0 0
19 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 19 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

1. PEO = Pertamina energy outlook; AS = Appropriate sustainability; ER = Economic Renaissance; mtoe = million tons
www.pertamina.com of oil equivalent 11
 Power sector will support electrification in energy system,
with challenges in clean & intermittent sources
Power Capacity, GW1
Battery Energy Storage Hydro Co-firing Oil Coal w/ CC(U)S1
Wind Solar Biomass Gas w/ CC(U)S1 Coal only
Geothermal Other NRE1 Nuclear Gas only Key takeaways
PEO1-AS1 PEO1-ER1
 Stronger commitment in energy
400 transition and NZE will require higher
450 NRE capacity from power sector.
350 400  No new coal legislation mean coal
shouldn’t grow post-2030
300 350 Fast decline post 2040 results in
stranded assets in ER scenario.
250 300  Gas cheapest baseload option
250 supply to firm renewable, but
200 ~90 GW
stronger NZE commitment will reduce
solar
200 ~150 GW gas in power sector.
150 solar  Battery storage is required to support
150 intermittent energy sources.
100 ~80 GW  CCS is required to further
35 gas 100
decarbonize the power sector.
50
50  Nuclear commitment could become
~15 GW gas
0 w/ CCS1
solution to decarbonize the power
2019 30 40 50 2060 0 sector.
2019 30 40 50 2060

1. CC(U)S = Carbon capture (utilization) storage; NRE = New renewable energy; PEO = Pertamina energy outlook; AS =
www.pertamina.com 12
Appropriate sustainability; ER = Economic Renaissance; GW = gigawatt
 Gasoline and diesel gasoline make up 80% of oil demand;
mostly used in 2W3/cars and trucks respectively
Oil products final energy composition (2022)
Key takeaway
Final energy by oil products (mtoe3) Share of fuels by segments (%)
Others1 Fuel Oil2 Avtur Diesel
Kerosene LPG3, 4 Biodiesel Gasoline
At present, gasoline and
Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG4) diesel take up 80% of oil
80 100%
Household (buildings)
demand in Indonesia
Commercial (buildings)
10 10 mtoe3 50% 96% Industry
70
(13%) LPG4,

60
0% 1% 3% Gasoline is used entirely by
11
(14%) passenger cars and 2W3
Diesel/ biodiesel
50 32 mtoe3 100% Others
diesel + Commercial (Buildings)
22
40
(28%)
biodiesel
50%
Industry
Diesel is used mostly by
75% Maritime
Train trucks – other segments split
30 0% Bus
Passenger Cars
equally the remaining 25%
20 Gasoline
Trucks
30 29.6 mtoe3
100%
(38%) gasoline 2W3 LPG4 is mainly used for
10 62% Passenger Cars
50% cooking within household
0 38% buildings
2022 0%
1. Including Industrial Diesel Oil (IDO) and Avgas; 2. Fuel oil is 85% used in industry 2022
3. 2W = 2 wheelers (scooter/motorcycles); 3. mtoe = million tons of oil equivalent
4. LPG = liquified petroleum gas. LPG is hereby categorized as oil products but can also be produced with gas
www.pertamina.com Source: Pertamina Energy Outlook 2023 13
 Emission for different vehicles varies across the value chain and over
time – biofuels best short-term option
Upstream Downstream Vehicle production Emissions High Medium Zero Negative

Total emissions2,
Vehicle production Upstream Downstream g CO2/ km

212 183
ICE with 169
100% fossil Manufacturing of ICE vehicle Fossil fuel extraction, ~10% of Majority of ICE emissions are
fuels total emissions tailpipe
1G
ICE with
176 153 142
100%
biofuels1 Same as manufacturing of ICE Negative CO2, as absorbed by Comparable to ICE fossil fuel,
vehicle plants
Theoretical only marginally lower
PEO-AS NET ZERO
238
168
EVs 80
Higher emission due raw Emissions from power using coal No tailpipe emissions for EVs
material extraction and battery or gas, more RES in the future

178
121
H2 75
Emissions to generate hydrogen
Similar emission to
from gas, using RES in the future No tailpipe emissions for
manufacturing of ICE 2022 35 2060
hydrogen vehicles
1. There is no 100% biofuel available in Indonesia - B35 is the maximum blending currently. For emissions, assuming no additional palm oil plantations, given
the government moratorium
www.pertamina.com 2. Numbers refer to a passenger cars. Similar ratios would apply to other segments 14
 In transportation sector, biofuels can provide certainty and
support the energy transition for heavy transportation
Transportation final energy (mtoe2)
H2 Biodiesel (100%) Gasoline Avtur Other Fuel
Electricity ADO - automotive diesel oil Bioavtur (100%) Natural Gas
Key takeaways
PEO1-AS1 PEO1-ER1
 PEO-ER assumes significantly lower
100 100 demand due to efficiency
0 improvements across vehicle
90 90
20 2 technology.
80 80  Electric Vehicle will replace gasoline
70 70 in both scenarios.
34 3  Hydrogen mobility will increase in
8
60 50 60 stronger energy transition scenario, to
mtoe2 26 decarbonize the transport sector.
50 50
31 However, this technology still require
40 40 22 further improvement and cost
mtoe reduction.
30 30
 Biofuel could support energy security,
20 20 affordability, and sustainability in
energy transition.
10 10  In the ER scenario, refinery capacity
0 0 must be repurposed and optimized to
19 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 19 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 produce petrochemicals.

1. Includes diesel and ADO (automotive diesel oil); PEO = Pertamina Energy Outlook; AS = Appropriate sustainability; ER =
www.pertamina.com Economic Renaissance; mtoe = Million tons of oil equivalent 15
Biofuel: Pertamina are accelerating biofuel adoption from both
demand side and supply side
Biofuel Supply: SH R&P to expand HVO/SAF capacity
Biofuel Demand: 87 Mn KL of blended biofuel
while SH PNRE to secure bioethanol supply through
expected by 2034, incl. 16 Mn KL pure biofuel
potential acquisition
Fuel demand projection (in Mn KL) Mapping Potential Green Refineries Project (ER)
Appropriate Sustainability Scenario

95 96 97
93 94
90 10
87 10 10
84 10 10
79 81
23 HVO/ 1 2 3 4
30 Green GR
SAF
36 Refinery GR Cilacap GR Plaju GR Dumai Balikpapan
42
48
Capacity 6 kbpd 20 kbpd 30 kbpd 30 kbpd
67 68 69 70 71
Target COD 2027 2028 2031 2034
53 OS1
45 AS1
36 ER1
28
21 SH PNRE to expand bioethanol
production to through potential
14 15 16 16 16 16 acquisition
11 12 12 12
Bio-
’25 ’26 ’27 ’28 ’29 ’30 ’31 ’32 ’33 ’34
ethanol
Feedstock will come from 150k KL 840k KL
domestic and import. PTPN plans By 2027 By 2034
Biofuel (biofuel portion) Biofuel (fossil portion) Pure Fossil Fuel
to add ~50k Ha additional land
for feedstock to increase supply
from 90k KL to 315k KL
1. AS = Appropriate Sustainability; OS = Ordinary State; ER = Economic Renaissance (ER); 2. Feedstock comes from both domestic & international sources 16
Source: Kilang Pertamina International, Pertamina Patra Niaga & Pertamina New & Renewable Energy RJPP 2025-2029, with sup. 2034
Government, business and civil society should
jointly shape Indonesia’s energy future

Government

Businesses Non-Profit & Civil Society

Driving ‘Just, Orderly and Affordable Energy

Transition’ by optimizing Indonesia’s asset and
potential, for the benefit of our nation

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copyright of PEI. PEI makes no warranty or representation about the accuracy or completeness of the information and data contained in
these materials, which are provided ‘as is’. The opinions expressed in these materials are those of PEI, and nothing contained in them
constitutes an offer to conduct any transaction, or investment advice.

PEI does not warrant or represent that these materials are appropriate or sufficient for your purposes. If, notwithstanding the foregoing,
you or any other person relies upon these materials in any way, does not accept, and hereby disclaims to the extent permitted by law, all
liability for any loss and damage suffered arising in connection with such reliance.

The Pertamina Energy Outlook 2023 study focuses on the national energy demand projection, using specific assumptions and scenarios in
modelling national energy demand until 2060.

Historical data used is sourced from official publications of relevant institutions. The development of assumptions and scenarios in the
Pertamina Energy Outlook 2023 is conducted by the Pertamina Energy Institute (PEI) using scenario planning methods. Quantitative
scenario modelling within this study uses Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) software, the same software used by ministries/institutions
in the energy sector in Indonesia for national energy demand planning. The data processed in the modelling of PEO 2023 is up to the
period of May 2023.

Detailed modeling results from 2023 PEO, as described in this chapter, can be obtained, along with suggestions, feedback, or further
inquiries related to this study, by sending an email to energy-institute@pertamina.com with the email subject: Enquiry PEO 2023.

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Pertamina Energy Outlook

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 Thank you

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