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Procedia Computer Science 219 (2023) 76–83

CENTERIS –– International Conference on

on ENTERprise Information Systems // ProjMAN ––
CENTERIS International Conference ENTERprise Information Systems ProjMAN
International Conference on Project MANagement / HCist – International Conference on Health
International Conference on Project MANagement / HCist – International2022
Conference on Health
and
and Social
Social Care
Care Information
Information Systems
Systems and
and Technologies
Technologies 2022

A
A hybrid
hybrid model
model of
of risk
risk assessment
assessment of of the
the functioning
functioning of
of information
information
modules of
modules of critical
critical infrastructure
infrastructure objects
objects
Volodymyr
Volodymyr Polishchuk
Polishchuka,*,
a,
*, Yurii
Yurii Mlavets
Mlavetsa,, Iryna
a
Iryna Rozora
Rozorab,, Olena
b
Olena Tymoshenko
Tymoshenkoc
c

a
Uzhhorod National University, Uzhhorod, Ukraine
a
Uzhhorod National University, Uzhhorod, Ukraine
b
Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Kyiv, Ukraine
TechnicalTaras Shevchenko National
“IgorUniversity of Kyiv, Kyiv, Ukraine
b
c
National University of Ukraine Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”, Kyiv, Ukraine
c
National Technical University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”, Kyiv, Ukraine

Abstract
Abstract
The work carried out a theoretical study of the development of a mathematical hybrid model of risk assessment of the functioning
The work carried out a theoretical study of the development of a mathematical hybrid model of risk assessment of the functioning
of information modules of critical infrastructure objects in different modes, for proactive decision-making support. The model is
of information modules of critical infrastructure objects in different modes, for proactive decision-making support. The model is
able to assess the risks of the functioning of information modules, uses the intellectual analysis of experts' knowledge, reveals the
able to assess the risks of the functioning of information modules, uses the intellectual analysis of experts' knowledge, reveals the
vagueness of input estimates, increases the degree of validity of making further management decisions based on the obtained
vagueness of input estimates, increases the degree of validity of making further management decisions based on the obtained
results. As a result, a vague aggregated assessment of the operation of the information module of the critical infrastructure facility
results. As a result, a vague aggregated assessment of the operation of the information module of the critical infrastructure facility
was obtained; linguistic interpretation of the level of functioning of the module of the critical infrastructure object to support
was obtained; linguistic interpretation of the level of functioning of the module of the critical infrastructure object to support
decision-making; the level of risk of functioning of the corresponding module. The developed model will be a useful tool for
decision-making; the level of risk of functioning of the corresponding module. The developed model will be a useful tool for
experts on the security of the operation of critical infrastructure objects in the framework of cybercrime prevention.
experts on the security of the operation of critical infrastructure objects in the framework of cybercrime prevention.
©
© 2022
2023 The
The Authors.
Authors. Published
Published by
by ELSEVIER
Elsevier B.V.B.V.
© 2022
This is an open access article under ELSEVIER B.V.
This is
This is an
an open
open access
access article under the
article under the CC
the CC BY-NC-ND
CC
license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0)
BY-NC-ND license
BY-NC-ND license
(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0)
(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0)
Peer-review
Peer-review under
under responsibility
responsibility of
of the
the scientific
scientific committee
committee of of the
the CENTERIS
CENTERIS – International
– International Conference
Conference on ENTERprise
on ENTERprise Information
Peer-review
Information under
Systemsresponsibility
/ ProjMAN of
- the scientific
International committee
Conference of
on the CENTERIS
Project – International
MANagement / HCist -Conference onConference
International ENTERprise on Care
Systems / ProjMAN
Information Systems - /International
ProjMAN - Conference
InternationalonConference
Project MANagement
on Project /MANagement
HCist - International
/ HCist Conference
- on Health
International and Social
Conference on
Health and Social
Information Care
Systems and Information
TechnologiesSystems
2022 and Technologies 2022
Health and Social Care Information Systems and Technologies 2022
Keywords: Risk Assessment; Intelligent Systems; Expert Evaluation; Cybercrime; Risks; Objects of Critical Infrastructure.
Keywords: Risk Assessment; Intelligent Systems; Expert Evaluation; Cybercrime; Risks; Objects of Critical Infrastructure.

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +38066-420-74-84.

* E-mail
Corresponding
address:author. Tel.: +38066-420-74-84.
volodymyr.polishchuk@uzhnu.edu.ua
E-mail address: volodymyr.polishchuk@uzhnu.edu.ua
1877-0509 © 2022 The Authors. Published by ELSEVIER B.V.
1877-0509 © 2022 The Authors. Published by ELSEVIER B.V.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0)
This is an open
Peer-review underaccess article under
responsibility the CC BY-NC-ND
of the scientific committee license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0)
of the CENTERIS – International Conference on ENTERprise Information Systems /
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the CENTERIS – International Conference on ENTERprise Information Systems /
ProjMAN - International Conference on Project MANagement / HCist - International Conference on Health and Social Care Information Systems
ProjMAN - International
and Technologies 2022 Conference on Project MANagement / HCist - International Conference on Health and Social Care Information Systems
and Technologies 2022
1877-0509 © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0)
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the CENTERIS – International Conference on ENTERprise
Information Systems / ProjMAN - International Conference on Project MANagement / HCist - International Conference
on Health and Social Care Information Systems and Technologies 2022
10.1016/j.procs.2023.01.266
 Volodymyr Polishchuk et al. / Procedia Computer Science 219 (2023) 76–83 77
2 Volodymyr Polishchuk et al. / Procedia Computer Science 00 (2019) 000–000

1. Introduction

Today, there is a need to ensure cybersecurity of information modules of critical infrastructure objects. In industries
that are vital for critical infrastructure, automated process control systems are widely used, which include dispatch
control and data collection systems, distributed control systems, and other control system configurations. Critical
infrastructure solution managers seek to manage risks for proactive management and disaster prevention. Currently,
very relevant decision support systems are based on intelligent data analysis to prevent cybercrime. But most of them
are designed to analyze and make decisions in safe mode. For conditions where regimes rapidly change from safe
work, emergency to disaster, most decision support models are not able to adequately assess the situation. Proof of
this is the work from critical infrastructure facilities to the state in the conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Undoubtedly, such decisions should be made systematically, taking into account the functioning of critical
infrastructure objects and each of its elements (information module). In addition, there are situations when it is
necessary to take into account the experience of decision managers to take into account all types of risks.
In the regular mode of functioning of information modules of critical infrastructure objects, there is a need to assess
the level of their functioning, to support the adoption of preventive measures and prevent out-of-hours mode. When
we assess the level of functioning of information modules of critical infrastructure objects in an offline mode, for
example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, then based on such an assessment, an optimal scenario (decision) should
be adopted aimed at returning the system to regular mode of operation. In one and the other case, the goal is the same:
to adopt the optimal scenario for ensuring a high level of functioning of critical infrastructure objects through the prism
of information modules and preventing a lower existing mode of operation, or returning to normal mode.
The purpose of this study is to develop a hybrid model of risk assessment of the functioning of information modules
of critical infrastructure objects in different modes, for proactive decision-making support.
This study consists of three parts. The first part of the study focuses on innovative solutions that are used by fuzzy
methods and models to assess the risk of functioning of information modules of critical infrastructure objects in
different modes of operation. The second part will consist in approbation and verification of the developed hybrid
model, based on real risk assessment data of the functioning of automated air traffic control systems in a critical
infrastructure object - an airport. The third part will focus on the development of software support for experts on the
security of the operation of critical infrastructure objects within the framework of cybercrime prevention. Next, we
will consider the first part of the study.

2. Literature review

The risk assessment of the management of any critical infrastructure object depends on the views of the
management on the concept of danger, its propensity to risk, emotional state, etc. The choice of a behavior option is
the result of the interaction of external factors, features, and opinions of the decision-maker (DM). When considering
alternative options for decision management in any operating system, it is necessary to consider at least optimistic,
cautious, average and pessimistic scenarios of the unfolding of events.
Risk is a social category, as it arises in the process of meaningful decision-making, which is inherent only to
humans. Risk directly depends on uncertainty, therefore, to reduce risk is necessary by minimizing uncertainty. For
this, in our research, we use the theory of fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic. It has been repeatedly scientifically proven [1-3]
that this theory can adequately reveal the uncertainty of data and knowledge, and is best suited to support decision-
making in conditions of risk.
Each information module of critical infrastructure objects in the process of its functioning has a different basic level
regarding the uniqueness of its data. It is a certain amount and quality of data that can be processed. Big data in systems
can be created from a large set of sensors, databases, etc. Such data must be systematically used for different purposes
and considered through the entire life cycle (storage, protection, use, and deletion). During the period of obtaining and
processing intellectual knowledge, the task of formalizing the opinions of experts regarding the study of information
modules of critical infrastructure objects arises. Therefore, fuzzy inference systems can use human expertise and
perform fuzzy inference to obtain an output estimate [4].
To display knowledge about the evaluation of information modules of critical infrastructure objects and to reduce
risk, it is advisable to use the theory of fuzzy sets [5-6]. In order to model uncertainty, the work uses fuzzy-multiple
78 Volodymyr Polishchuk et al. / Procedia Computer Science 219 (2023) 76–83
Volodymyr Polishchuk et al. / Procedia Computer Science 00 (2019) 000–000 3

descriptions and fuzzy logical conclusions [7]. For example, works [8-9] consider the general ideas and advantages on
which modern views on the use of fuzzy logic in decision support systems are based. The works [10-11] present the
use of fuzzy logic in various fields of application, which enables the determination of optimal parameters under
conditions of uncertainty of input data. And in works [3, 12], the advantages of studying complex objects of
functioning in different modes, with the use of system analysis, are scientifically substantiated.
The relevance of this study is proven by significant global studies, scientific publications and the need to study the
risks of the functioning of information modules of critical infrastructure objects in different modes of operation.

3. Materials and Methods

Let it be necessary to assess the risk level of the functioning of information modules 𝑆𝑆1 , 𝑆𝑆2 , . . . , 𝑆𝑆𝑛𝑛 of some critical
infrastructure object S. The level of risk of the functioning of information modules is required for the management of
decisions regarding the activity of the object as a whole, taking into account the modes of operation C: regular mode,
freelance situation, emergency situation (for example COVID-19 pandemic), catastrophic situation.
Let there be some set of evaluation indicators for each information module. Without reducing the generality, in the
future we will consider one functioning module and a set of its criteria 𝐾𝐾 = (𝐾𝐾1 , 𝐾𝐾2 , . . . , 𝐾𝐾𝑚𝑚 ). A group of experts selects
evaluation criteria for each module. We offer the evaluation of indicators in a hybrid way: the knowledge and experience
of experts regarding the object of critical infrastructure is used, as well as the intellectual analysis of quantitative data for
the corresponding information module.
Each indicator of the information module of the object's functioning is evaluated by an expert linguistic variable. We
present the term set of linguistic variables as the level of the situation in the functioning module of the critical
infrastructure object, described by the criterion𝐾𝐾. We offer the following term set 𝑇𝑇 = {𝑇𝑇1 ; 𝑇𝑇2 ; 𝑇𝑇3 ; 𝑇𝑇4 ; 𝑇𝑇5 },
where: 𝑇𝑇1 – “low level”; 𝑇𝑇2 – “level below average”; 𝑇𝑇3 – “average level”; 𝑇𝑇4 – “above average level”; 𝑇𝑇5 – “high level”.
On the other hand, for each criterion, we receive a quantitative assessment within the framework of "Big data" analysis.
Depending on the type of data, its structure, periodicity of acquisition, subjectivity of acquisition and other characteristics,
the membership function [12] is investigated and constructed separately for each criterion. As a result, for each criterion
we will get a quantitative assessment of the situation q from the interval [0; 1], for decision-making management.
The input data of the risk assessment of the functioning of the information module for the manager's response and
decision-making support are as follows: 𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑖 – variable from the term set 𝑇𝑇 for the i-th criterion; 𝑞𝑞𝑖𝑖 – is a quantitative
estimate from the interval [0; 1], i-th criterion, 𝑖𝑖 = 1, 𝑚𝑚 .
We will formally present a hybrid model of risk assessment of the functioning of information modules of critical
infrastructure objects to support proactive decision-making, regarding different modes of functioning:

𝜎𝜎(𝑡𝑡; 𝑞𝑞; 𝑀𝑀; 𝐶𝐶) → 𝑅𝑅(𝜇𝜇(𝐴𝐴); 𝐿𝐿; 𝑌𝑌). (1)

𝜎𝜎 is the operator matching the set of initial values 𝑅𝑅, with input variables 𝑡𝑡; 𝑞𝑞; 𝑀𝑀; 𝐶𝐶. The input data of the model
are: t – expert level of situations, separately for each criterion, in the relevant information module of the critical
infrastructure object; q – quantitative assessment of the situation, separately for each criterion; M – taking into account
the reasoning of the decision-maker regarding the scenario of the unfolding of events; C – operating mode. At the output
of the evaluation model, we have: 𝜇𝜇(𝐴𝐴) – a fuzzy aggregated evaluation of the operation of the information module of
the critical infrastructure object; L – linguistic interpretation of the level of functioning of the module of the critical
infrastructure object to support decision-making; Y – is the level of risk of functioning of the corresponding module.
Let us present the risk levels as follows 𝑌𝑌 = (𝑌𝑌1 , 𝑌𝑌2 , … , 𝑌𝑌5 ), where 𝑌𝑌1 is a very low risk level; 𝑌𝑌2 – low level of risk;
𝑌𝑌3 – average level of risk; 𝑌𝑌4 – high level of risk; 𝑌𝑌5 – critical level of risk. Then the output data will formulate a
logical statement depending on the level of functioning of the information module of the critical infrastructure object.
Let us present in the model the linguistic interpretation of 5 levels of functioning of the evaluated module of the
critical infrastructure object 𝐿𝐿 = (𝐿𝐿1 , 𝐿𝐿2 , … , 𝐿𝐿5 ) where: 𝐿𝐿1 – a very low level of functioning; 𝐿𝐿2 – low level of
functioning; 𝐿𝐿3 – average level of functioning; 𝐿𝐿4 – high level of functioning; 𝐿𝐿5 – a very high level of functioning.
We will offer, on the basis of DM reasoning, the possibility of obtaining estimates for 4 scenarios of unfolding
events 𝑀𝑀 = {𝑀𝑀1 ; 𝑀𝑀2 ; 𝑀𝑀3 ; 𝑀𝑀4 }, where: 𝑀𝑀1 is a pessimistic scenario of the unfolding of events; 𝑀𝑀2 – a cautious
scenario of unfolding events; 𝑀𝑀3 – the average scenario of the unfolding of events; 𝑀𝑀4 – is an optimistic scenario of
 Volodymyr Polishchuk et al. / Procedia Computer Science 219 (2023) 76–83 79
4 Volodymyr Polishchuk et al. / Procedia Computer Science 00 (2019) 000–000

the unfolding of events.

Let us denote 4 modes in which the critical infrastructure object functions and decision-making management is
carried out 𝐶𝐶 = (𝐶𝐶1 , 𝐶𝐶2 , 𝐶𝐶3 , 𝐶𝐶4 ), where: С1 – regular mode, С2 – freelance situation, С3 – emergency situation, С4 –
catastrophic situation.
Then an object with three inputs and one output is analyzed:

𝑌𝑌 = ∆(𝐿𝐿, 𝑀𝑀, 𝐶𝐶), (2)

where 𝑌𝑌 is the risk level of functioning of the assessed information module, 𝐿𝐿, 𝑀𝑀, 𝐶𝐶 are input linguistic assessments.
∆ is the operator matching the output variable 𝑌𝑌, with the input variables 𝐿𝐿, 𝑀𝑀, 𝐶𝐶 (rule of logical inference).
Let's introduce the knowledge matrix of the level of risk of the operation of the information module of the critical
infrastructure object - it is a matrix of dimension 80 × 4, (80=5*4*4) where each row is a certain combination of
values of the input variables, for which the DM indicates one of the possible values of the output variable. The
knowledge matrix defines a system of logical statements - "If, Then, Else", which connect the values of the input
variables 𝐿𝐿, 𝑀𝑀, 𝐶𝐶 with one of the possible values, the level of risk of the module's functioning 𝑌𝑌 = (𝑌𝑌1 , 𝑌𝑌2 , … , 𝑌𝑌5 ).
Next, the expert, or a group of experts, for each level of risk 𝑌𝑌 constructs rules for the appropriateness of incoming
linguistic assessments.
For example, for a low level of risk 𝑌𝑌2 , the rules of memberships are as follows: IF
………………………………………………………………………………..
OR in regular mode (С1 ) the level of functioning of the evaluated module is not lower than high (𝐿𝐿4 ) for all
(𝑀𝑀1 , 𝑀𝑀2 , 𝑀𝑀3 , 𝑀𝑀4 ) considerations DM;
OR in the freelance situation (С2 ) the level of functioning of the evaluated module is not lower than very high (𝐿𝐿5 )
for (𝑀𝑀3 , 𝑀𝑀4 ) considerations DM, and for other (𝑀𝑀1 , 𝑀𝑀2 ) considerations DM is not lower than high (𝐿𝐿4 );
OR in an emergency situation (С3 ) the level of functioning of the evaluated module is not lower than very high (𝐿𝐿5 )
for all (𝑀𝑀1 , 𝑀𝑀2 , 𝑀𝑀3 , 𝑀𝑀4 ) considerations DM;
OR in a catastrophic situation (С4 ) the level of functioning of the evaluated module is not lower than very high (𝐿𝐿5 )
for (𝑀𝑀1 , 𝑀𝑀2 ) considerations DM
THEN the level of risk of functioning of the evaluated module 𝑌𝑌2 = {low level of risk}
………………………………………………………………………………..
ELSE the level of risk of functioning of the evaluated module 𝑌𝑌5 = {critical level of risk}.
The knowledge base that determines the risk levels of the functioning of the module of the critical infrastructure
entity will be presented with the help of Fig. 1.

Fig. 1. The knowledge base for determining the level of risk of the functioning of the module of the critical infrastructure entity.

The hybrid model of risk assessment of the functioning of information modules of critical infrastructure objects is
described in the form of a step-by-step algorithm.
1st step. Fuzzification of input hybrid data of evaluated information modules
In the first step, the operation of fuzzification of the input hybrid data is performed. For this, each input value
(𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑖 ; 𝑞𝑞𝑖𝑖 ) is matched with the value of the membership function. Let the term-set of linguistic variables 𝑇𝑇 =
80 Volodymyr Polishchuk et al. / Procedia Computer Science 219 (2023) 76–83
Volodymyr Polishchuk et al. / Procedia Computer Science 00 (2019) 000–000 5

{𝑇𝑇1 ; 𝑇𝑇2 ; 𝑇𝑇3 ; 𝑇𝑇4 ; 𝑇𝑇5 } be represented on some numerical interval to delimit the terms [𝑎𝑎1 ; 𝑎𝑎6 ] , where 𝑇𝑇1 ∈
[𝑎𝑎1 ; 𝑎𝑎2 ], 𝑇𝑇2 ∈ [𝑎𝑎2 ; 𝑎𝑎3 ], 𝑇𝑇3 ∈ [𝑎𝑎3 ; 𝑎𝑎4 ], 𝑇𝑇4 ∈ [𝑎𝑎4 ; 𝑎𝑎5 ], 𝑇𝑇5 ∈ [𝑎𝑎5 ; 𝑎𝑎6 ]. The values of interval division can be adjusted and
changed in the process of using real data of information modules of critical infrastructure objects. To obtain a
normalized estimate, we can consider the following approach.
Let's calculate criterion evaluations using linguistic variables T, quantitative evaluations q and partition values of
intervals [𝑎𝑎1 ; 𝑎𝑎6 ], using the proposed characteristic function:

𝑎𝑎2 ⋅ 𝑞𝑞𝑖𝑖 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑖 ∈ 𝑇𝑇1 ;

𝑎𝑎3 ⋅ 𝑞𝑞𝑖𝑖 , 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑖 ∈ 𝑇𝑇2 ;
𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖 = 𝑎𝑎4 ⋅ 𝑞𝑞𝑖𝑖 , 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑖 ∈ 𝑇𝑇3 ; 𝑖𝑖 = 1, 𝑚𝑚. (3)
𝑎𝑎5 ⋅ 𝑞𝑞𝑖𝑖 , 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑖 ∈ 𝑇𝑇4 ;
{𝑎𝑎6 ⋅ 𝑞𝑞𝑖𝑖 , 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑖 ∈ 𝑇𝑇5 .

This will provide an opportunity to combine quantitative assessments and expert opinions. As a result, we will
receive an objective assessment of the functioning of the evaluated module of the critical infrastructure entity, which
will lead to an increase in the quality of decision-making. Further, to compare the data, it is necessary to normalize the
obtained estimates [3]. For example, let's represent a membership rule using an S-shaped membership function [3]:

0, 𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖 ≤ 𝑎𝑎1 ;
𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖 −𝑎𝑎1 2 𝑎𝑎1 +𝑎𝑎6
2( ) , 𝑎𝑎1 < 𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖 ≤ ;
𝑎𝑎6 −𝑎𝑎1 2
𝜇𝜇(𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖 ) = (4)
𝑎𝑎6 −𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖 2 𝑎𝑎1 +𝑎𝑎6
1 − 2( ) , < 𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖 < 𝑎𝑎6 ;
𝑎𝑎6 −𝑎𝑎1 2
{ 1, 𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖 ≥ 𝑎𝑎6 .

The membership function constructed in this way suggests that the obtained value of 𝜇𝜇(𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖 ) will go to 1, in the event
that the high level of functioning of the considered module of the subject and the quantitative assessment of the
situation will go to 1.
The choice of membership function for data normalization depends on the group of experts and the data being
studied.
For data fuzzification, other approaches convenient for researchers can also be used. For example, a neuro-fuzzy
model of obtaining a quantitative assessment of the research object [13].
So, at the first step, the subjectivity of expert opinions is revealed and the transition from vague expert linguistic
and quantitative assessments to standardized and comparable.
2nd step. Aggregation of the assessment of the functioning module with regard to the considerations of the DM
Let DM for each criterion of the information module of functioning can set the weight coefficients 𝑣𝑣𝑖𝑖 , 𝑖𝑖 = 1, 𝑚𝑚 , from
some interval [1; 10]. Otherwise, the criteria may be equally important and the normalized weighting factors are
determined accordingly [12]:
𝑣𝑣
𝑤𝑤𝑖𝑖 = ∑𝑚𝑚 𝑖𝑖 . (5)
𝑖𝑖=1 𝑣𝑣𝑖𝑖

Next, we build the belonging function as one of the proposed convolutions, depending on the psychosomatic mood
of the DM, regarding the unfolding of events:

1
𝑀𝑀1 (𝑆𝑆) = 𝑤𝑤𝑖𝑖 − a pessimistic scenario of the unfolding of events; (6)
∑𝑚𝑚
𝑖𝑖=1 𝜇𝜇(𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖 )

𝑀𝑀2 (𝑆𝑆) = ∏𝑚𝑚

𝑖𝑖=1( 𝜇𝜇(𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖 ))
𝑤𝑤𝑖𝑖
− careful scenario of unfolding events; (7)

𝑀𝑀3 (𝑆𝑆) = ∑𝑚𝑚

𝑖𝑖=1 𝑤𝑤𝑖𝑖 𝜇𝜇(𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖 ) − the average scenario of the unfolding of events; (8)
6 Volodymyr
Volodymyr Polishchuk
Polishchuk et al. / Procedia
et al. / Procedia ComputerComputer Science
Science 00 219
(2019) (2023) 76–83
000–000 81

𝑀𝑀4 (𝑆𝑆) = √∑𝑚𝑚

𝑖𝑖=1 𝑤𝑤𝑖𝑖 ( 𝜇𝜇(𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖 )) − an optimistic scenario of the unfolding of events. (9)
2

Where 𝑤𝑤𝑖𝑖 ( 𝑖𝑖 = 1, 𝑚𝑚 ) are normalized weighting factors for each criterion.

3rd step. Designing the event deployment scenario
At this step, it is necessary to construct the membership function, which forms the following dependence: the higher
the aggregated score of the information module of the critical infrastructure object, the lower the risk. With this in
mind, consider the dependence in the form of a linear Z-shaped membership function [3]:

1, 𝐴𝐴𝑔𝑔 < 𝑎𝑎;

𝑏𝑏−𝐴𝐴𝑔𝑔
𝑀𝑀𝑔𝑔 (𝑆𝑆) = { , 𝑎𝑎 ≤ 𝐴𝐴𝑔𝑔 ≤ 𝑏𝑏; 𝑔𝑔 = ̅̅̅̅
1,4. (10)
𝑏𝑏−𝑎𝑎
0, 𝐴𝐴𝑔𝑔 > 𝑏𝑏.

Since we are assessing the risk, then it is natural to consider the numerical values of 𝑎𝑎, 𝑏𝑏 on a percentage scale: 𝑎𝑎 =
0, 𝑏𝑏 = 100. Next, let's express 𝐴𝐴𝑔𝑔 from the formula (10):

𝐴𝐴𝑔𝑔 = 100(1 − 𝑀𝑀𝑔𝑔 (𝑆𝑆)), 𝑔𝑔 = ̅̅̅̅

1,4. (11)

4th step. Risk assessment in different modes of operation of the critical infrastructure facility
Let us have the regimes in which the critical infrastructure object functions and decision-making management is
carried out 𝐶𝐶 = (𝐶𝐶1 , 𝐶𝐶2 , 𝐶𝐶3 , 𝐶𝐶4 ). With the escalation of the emergency situation, the values that affect the stability of
the facility's functioning in the complex change rapidly. This clearly increases the risk of decision-making. Let's
introduce the concept of some a priori specified permissible values - the threshold of the possibility of functioning of
the critical infrastructure object. We interpret the dependence of risk on the quality of decision-making in relation to
the modes of operation of the critical infrastructure object as follows:

0, 𝐴𝐴𝑔𝑔 < 0;
𝐴𝐴𝑔𝑔 𝑘𝑘
𝜇𝜇(𝐴𝐴𝑔𝑔 ) = 1 − {( ) , 0 ≤ 𝐴𝐴𝑔𝑔 ≤ 100; (12)
100
1, 𝐴𝐴𝑔𝑔 > 100.
Where к is the threshold for the possibility of functioning of the critical infrastructure object. The value of this
threshold varies depending on the regimes in which the DM needs to make a decision. Experimentally, we will set:
11 7 5 2
k= for regular mode С1 ; k= for freelance situationС2 ; k= for emergency situation С3 ; k= for catastrophic
9 9 9 9
situation С4 . For a defined object of critical infrastructure and an information module, the threshold of functionality
must be established by expert or training methods. Then, according to formula (12), we will get estimates in different
modes of system operation 𝜇𝜇С1 (𝐴𝐴𝑔𝑔 ), 𝜇𝜇С2 (𝐴𝐴𝑔𝑔 ),𝜇𝜇С3 (𝐴𝐴𝑔𝑔 ), 𝜇𝜇С4 (𝐴𝐴𝑔𝑔 ), 𝑔𝑔 = ̅̅̅̅
1,4.
Therefore, the obtained values are vague aggregated estimates of the functioning of the information module of the
object, for the quality of decision-making according to the 𝑔𝑔- th reasoning of the DM regarding the scenario of the
deployment of events, in the corresponding mode of operation.
5th step. Determining the risk level of the operation of the critical infrastructure object and defuzzification of data
to obtain the risk level
Based on the obtained values of the estimates 𝜇𝜇С (𝐴𝐴𝑔𝑔 ), 𝑔𝑔 = ̅̅̅̅ 1,4 we will present the linguistic interpretation of the
level of functioning of the information modules of the critical infrastructure object, from the set 𝐿𝐿 to support decision-
making: 𝜇𝜇С (𝐴𝐴𝑔𝑔 ) ∈ [0; 0,2) ‒ 𝐿𝐿1 very low level of functioning of the information module of the critical infrastructure
object; 𝜇𝜇С (𝐴𝐴𝑔𝑔 ) ∈ [0,2; 0,4) ‒ 𝐿𝐿2 low level of functioning of the information module; 𝜇𝜇С (𝐴𝐴𝑔𝑔 ) ∈ [0,4; 0,6) ‒ 𝐿𝐿3
average level of functioning of the information module; 𝜇𝜇С (𝐴𝐴𝑔𝑔 ) ∈ [0,6; 0,8) ‒ 𝐿𝐿4 high level of functioning of the
information module; 𝜇𝜇С (𝐴𝐴𝑔𝑔 ) ∈ [0,8; 1] ‒ 𝐿𝐿5 very high level of functioning of the information module.
Defuzzification of data will be carried out on the basis of the presented rule of ownership and the knowledge matrix
of the level of risk of the functioning of the information module of the critical infrastructure object. As a result, we
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Volodymyr Polishchuk et al. / Procedia Computer Science 00 (2019) 000–000 7

will get Y – the risk level of the functioning of the information module of the critical infrastructure object.
In the process of evaluating the object of critical infrastructure S in the modes of operation, we will obtain: 𝜇𝜇С (𝐴𝐴𝑔𝑔 )
– fuzzy aggregated estimates of the operation of the object relative to the scenario of the unfolding of events in
different modes С; L – linguistic interpretation of the level of functioning of the module of the critical infrastructure
object to support decision-making; Y – is the level of risk of functioning of the evaluated information module of the
critical infrastructure object.
If we have more than one information module for risk assessment, then we can use one of the approaches to obtain
the aggregated risk level of the critical infrastructure object [3-4, 12]. For example, using a weighted average
convolution with weighting coefficients by modules.

4. Results

For the practical use of the conducted scientific theoretical research, it is necessary to clearly define the information
module in the object of critical infrastructure, which will be evaluated. After that, it is necessary to determine the set
of threats of the information module and conduct a theoretical-multiple generalization to build a set of evaluation
criteria. For future research, as a result of the conducted research, we will consider the information module of the
critical infrastructure object of the airport [14], for example, data processing systems (Data Processing Systems):
automated air traffic control systems. These are systems that consist of hardware and software tools for automating
air traffic control processes and provide air traffic assessment and forecasting, support for decision-making by air
traffic service dispatchers and control of their implementation; automated airspace use planning systems – systems
consisting of hardware and software tools for automating airspace use planning and coordination processes;
centralized surveillance data processing and distribution systems of EUROCONTROL (European Organization for
the Safety of Air Navigation), namely ATM suRveillance Tracker And Server (ARTAS), Surveillance Data
Distribution System (SDDS); flight data processing and transmission systems, for example, EUROCONTROL
Integrated Initial Flight Plan Processing System (IFPS); aeronautical information processing and transmission
systems. The second part of the presented research will consist in the approbation and verification of the developed
hybrid model, on the real data of the risk assessment of the operation of the given automated air traffic control systems.

5. Conclusions

In the scientific work, for the first time, a hybrid model of risk assessment of the functioning of information modules
of critical infrastructure objects in different modes was developed for proactive decision-making support. The hybrid
model is able to adequately determine: a vague aggregated assessment of the operation of the information module of
the critical infrastructure object; linguistic interpretation of the level of functioning of the module of the critical
infrastructure object to support decision-making; the level of risk of functioning of the corresponding module. The
research is based on the apparatus of fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic, which allows increasing the degree of validity of
decisions. To process expert information and unclear input data, intellectual analysis of knowledge is used based on
functions of appropriateness of evaluations according to criteria. The features of the model are that it reveals the
ambiguities of input expert conclusions, increasing the degree of validity of proactive decision-making to ensure a
high level of functioning of critical infrastructure objects through the prism of information modules and preventing a
lower existing mode of operation, or a return to normal mode.
The advantages of the hybrid model of risk assessment of the functioning of information modules of critical
infrastructure objects are as follows: it is based on evaluation criteria that can be adapted to different information
modules of critical infrastructure objects; takes into account the expert level of situations, separately for each criterion,
in the relevant information module of the critical infrastructure object; takes into account the quantitative assessment
of the situation, separately for each criterion and considerations of the DM regarding the scenario of the unfolding of
events; considers the mode of operation. The disadvantages of this model include the use of different types of
membership functions and the use of different types of convolutions, which can lead to ambiguity in the final results.
The rationality of the aggregated assessment of the operation of the information module of the critical infrastructure
object, the linguistic interpretation of the level of functioning of the module of the critical infrastructure object to
 Volodymyr Polishchuk et al. / Procedia Computer Science 219 (2023) 76–83 83
8 Volodymyr Polishchuk et al. / Procedia Computer Science 00 (2019) 000–000

support decision-making and the level of risk of the functioning of the corresponding module proves the advantages
of the developed hybrid model. The reliability of the obtained results is ensured by the justified use of the apparatus
of fuzzy sets, intellectual analysis of knowledge, a systematic approach, which is also confirmed by the results of
research.
Further investigation of the problem can be seen in the approbation and verification of the developed hybrid risk
assessment model of the functioning of automated air traffic control systems, based on real data taken from the
Uzhhorod International Airport (Ukraine). For this, a separate study will be conducted on a group of modules of
automated air traffic control systems to establish a set of criteria for assessing the risks of the functioning of these
modules. Also, as a means of using the developed mathematical model by experts on the security of the functioning
of critical infrastructure objects in the framework of cybercrime prevention, software will be developed.

Acknowledgements

We are very grateful to the conference organizers for the opportunity to present the research by funding
organizational contributions.

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