24/02/2023, 22:39 A year of war in Ukraine has left Europe’s armouries dry | Financial Times

Opinion Global Insight

A year of war in Ukraine has left Europe’s armouries dry
Reality of sustaining Kyiv’s army through a long, bloody conflict is dawning on the
west

HENRY FOY

Within weeks of Russia’s invasion, arms were flowing east to Ukraine, but 12 months of gruelling war has placed a huge strain on
Europe’s ill-prepared defence sector © ABACA via Reuters Connect

Henry Foy FEBRUARY 15 2023

Jens Stoltenberg chooses his words carefully. The strait-laced Norwegian

secretary-general of Nato is famous for his ability to stick rigidly to talking points.
So when he warned this week that the west’s “under strain” defence sector had “a
problem”, he meant it.

Russia’s war against Ukraine is almost a year old. Tens of thousands have been
killed. Western governments have provided more than $110bn worth of support to
Kyiv, according to the Kiel Institute, with $38bn in the form of weapons.

But in many capitals, defence ministers are being informed by their generals that
there is precious little left to give. Warehouses and dumps are bare. Denmark has
given Ukraine every single one of its Caesar howitzers. Estonia has provided so
many 155mm artillery guns it has none left.

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24/02/2023, 22:39 A year of war in Ukraine has left Europe’s armouries dry | Financial Times

As such, the conversations between western defence ministers who met at Nato’s
headquarters this week and who will congregate at the Munich Security Conference
this weekend are littered with furrowed brows and anxious looks: how long can we
sustain this level of support, and with what?

Looming over them is Russia’s spring offensive, which Stoltenberg said had
already begun. It is expected to involve a mass wave of newly mobilised troops, a
level of air power not yet deployed by Moscow, and the daily firing of as many
artillery shells as Europe manufacturers in a month.

“It is worrying what is coming,” admitted Kajsa Ollongren, the Netherlands’

defence minister.

She described “a sense of urgency” among her fellow Nato ministers this week. “[It
is] a critical moment because of what we see happening on the ground and what we
expect to be happening in the next few months.”

“Also, thinking a little bit ahead, a serious scenario is of course that this war will
drag on for a long time,” she added.

Europe responded to Russian president Vladimir Putin’s invasion with initial

disbelief. Capitals that had previously declared he had no plans to do so then duly
predicted Kyiv would fall in days.

But that rapidly gave way to a level of unity and support that defied both
expectations and past form. Armies starved of funding by governments that had
long dismissed the notion of war in Europe dug deep, and within weeks arms were
flowing east across the Polish-Ukrainian border (as refugees flowed the other way).

But almost 12 months of gruelling war, in which Putin’s troops have targeted both
civilian infrastructure and military targets, has placed immense pressure on
Europe’s ill-prepared defence sector.

Europe’s factories are barely able to make enough shells to supply a week’s worth
of Ukraine’s needs. Waiting times for some munitions have more than doubled.

Stocks of Soviet equipment held by eastern Nato states, which Ukraine’s soldiers
know how to use, have been exhausted. Decisions to send new types of western-
made weapons — such as armoured vehicles — are met with fanfare but are
followed by weeks and months of delays as armies realise how much refurbishment
they require.

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24/02/2023, 22:39 A year of war in Ukraine has left Europe’s armouries dry | Financial Times

“It’s not going well for the Ukrainians. They are short of everything,” said Judy
Dempsey, non-resident senior fellow at Carnegie Europe. “Ukraine really needs the
means [to fight back], but they aren’t getting it.”

“[The Europeans] are fully behind the Ukrainians. But it’s not enough,” said
Dempsey. “You don’t question the political will to support Ukraine, but the actual
ability to deliver enough, and quick enough.”

The answer, according to most officials, is large, long-term contracts with defence
manufacturers, initially for the war effort but with pledges from European
governments to keep buying even when peace comes to Ukraine. Such
conversations will dominate Munich, too.

Estonia’s defence minister proposed to his counterparts this week that donor
countries combine to sign a €‎4bn contract to procure 1mn artillery rounds, as a
test case for joint purchases that give defence contractors the security to invest in
new capacities.

Seven European countries, including the UK, Norway and Denmark, announced on
Wednesday a jointly funded £200mn package of direct contracts between Ukraine
and western defence manufacturers for supplies, including artillery ammunition
and spare parts for tanks.

Nato, for its part, late last year ordered all its members to perform a snap check of
their inventories. It is now using the results to target individual governments and
push them to sign new production contracts.

“We’re not just sitting there idle and watching this happening,” said Stoltenberg
this week, suggesting that factories add shifts and “even work during weekends”.

The problem, of course, is that Russia’s war economy has been running for at least
a year. Europe, meanwhile, is just getting into gear.

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