Ukraine-Russia crisis: What to know about rising fear of war

By RAF CASERTFebruary 7, 2022

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Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, listens to French President Emmanuel Macron
during their meeting in the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Monday, Feb. 7, 2022. Macron
traveled to Moscow in a bid to help defuse tensions amid a Russian troop buildup near
Ukraine that fueled fears of an invasion. (Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

BRUSSELS (AP) — Several world leaders lined up Monday to walk a diplomatic

tightrope that could mean the difference between war in Ukraine and an uneasy peace
there as Russia’s menacing actions on the border of its neighbor continued unabated.

Here’s a look at what is happening where and why:

FROM MOSCOW TO WASHINGTON

Russian President Vladimir Putin was back at the Kremlin in Moscow following his
diplomatic foray to get support from China over the weekend during the Winter
Olympics. Putin was hosting the prime meeting of the day Monday as his French
counterpart Emmanuel Macron was on a mission to de-escalate tensions. 1

President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met at the White House to
shore up Western resolve against what they see as Russian aggression against Ukraine.
Biden explicitly singled out the pipeline project known as Nord Stream 2, which would
bring additional Russian gas to Europe, and could be certified by Germany to operate
this summer. “There will no longer be Nord Stream 2” if Russia further invades
Ukraine, Biden said. Scholz didn’t mention the pipeline but said Germany and the U.S.
are “absolutely united” in their intention to impose punishing sanctions on Russia if it
invades Ukraine.2
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell earlier
said the United States and Europe remained unified on not only the nature of the
Russian threat to Ukraine but the consequences that Russia would face if it invaded.
They also defended the increasingly dire warnings that a Russian invasion may be
imminent.

Western estimates that more than 100,000 Russian troops have massed near Ukraine
are increasing worries that an offensive could be only days away.

At the same time, borders of NATO nations that are close to Russia are also being
shored up. Germany, which is often accused of being too lackadaisical toward Moscow,
and Britain added to that effort on Monday and NATO itself also has plans.

FRANCE AND RUSSIA DISAGREE, BUT MORE TALKS TO COME

Russian President Vladimir Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron wrapped
up more than five hours of talks by registering their disagreements but also
emphasizing the need for more talks.

Putin noted that the U.S. and NATO have ignored Moscow’s demands for NATO to keep
Ukraine and other ex-Soviet nations out, refrain from placing weapons there and roll
back alliance forces from Eastern Europe. He nevertheless signaled his readiness to
continue the negotiations.

Putin scoffed at Western descriptions of NATO as a defensive alliance, saying

sarcastically that “people of Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan have had learned it from their
own experience.”

He warned that Ukraine’s accession to NATO could trigger a war between Russia and
the alliance.

“If Ukraine becomes a NATO member and moves to reclaim Crimea, European
countries will automatically be drawn into a military conflict with Russia,” Putin said.
“You will be drawn into that conflict beyond your will. There will be no winners.”

Macron said he had a “substantial, deep” discussion with Putin, with a focus on
conditions that could help de-escalation.

“We tried to build converging elements,” he said. “The upcoming days will be crucial
and deep discussions together will be needed.”

He added that it’s Europe’s duty to find a solution to try to rebuild good-neighborly ties
with Russia.

AFTER FRENCH MOVE, GERMANY STEPS UP

France and Germany have worked in tandem before. Seven years ago, they were
essential in creating a peace deal for eastern Ukraine in a bid to end fighting between
Ukrainian government forces and Russia-backed separatists that erupted in 2014
following the Russian annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula.
Ukrainian officials have called that peace deal unworkable and divisive, but it did tamp
down the fighting.

Germany has been criticized for being slow and halfhearted in its approach to the
Ukraine crisis but on Monday, Europe’s economic powerhouse was moving on different
fronts. As Chancellor Scholz got ready for his meeting with Biden, Foreign Minister
Annalena Baerbock had meetings in Kyiv with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys
Shmyhal and was set on Tuesday to visit the “line of contact” with pro-Russia
separatists in eastern Ukraine.

Germany’s show of solidarity comes amid tensions over Berlin’s refusal to send
weapons to Ukraine. Yet Baerbock said “we stand — without ifs or buts — by the
territorial integrity of the country and at the side of the people in Ukraine.”

Baerbock added that “together, we will react with hard and very concrete measures to
any further Russian aggression against Ukraine.”

To show that the Franco-German diplomatic effort is far from over, Scholz will meet
Macron and their Polish counterpart Andrzej Duda to discuss the Ukraine crisis on
Tuesday. That will allow the three leaders to compare notes after Scholz’s meeting with
Biden and Macron’s trips to Russia and Ukraine.

MORE TROOPS BOLSTER NATO’S EASTERN FRONT

Britain says it is sending 350 troops to Poland as part of efforts to bolster NATO forces
in eastern Europe amid a Russian military build-up near Ukraine. Defense Secretary
Ben Wallace says the troops will join 100 Royal Engineers already in Poland.

Germany decided to send more troops to Lithuania, further reinforcing its presence on
NATO’s eastern flank, in a move that comes amid criticism of Berlin’s refusal to send
weapons to Kyiv. Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said she will add up to 350
troops to a NATO battlegroup it leads in the Baltic nation, where it already has some
500 soldiers.

Lambrecht said, with the move, Germany is “sending a very clear signal of unity to our
allies. We can be relied on and we are showing that with this strengthening of the
battlegroup.”

Scholz on Thursday will host the leaders of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, the three
Baltic states who feel the heat from Moscow, before traveling to Ukraine and Russia
next week.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg also said the alliance is weighing a more
permanent military presence in southeast Europe.

“We are considering more longer-term adjustments to our posture, our presence in the
eastern part of the alliance,” Stoltenberg told reporters after talks with Poland’s
president. “If Russia really wants less NATO close to the borders, they get the opposite.”

HOW IS EUROPE GOING TO FIND MORE GAS?

When it comes to feeling the heat during winter, Europe is particularly dependent on
Russia’s energy supplies. The EU is also complaining that Moscow has not been
forthcoming with additional gas shipments to Europe when market logic, with its
current sky-high prices, would make it a no-brainer.

Over 40% of Europe’s gas supplies come from Russia. EU foreign policy chief Josep
Borrell said on the eve of Monday’s EU-US energy meeting in Washington that “Russia
has already in the past used energy supplies for political purposes.” Now the 27-nation
bloc desperately needs to diversify its gas sources, and is finding a helping hand in
Washington.

“The United States will do everything we can to help ease any disruptions to Europe’s
energy supply, and indeed, we already are,” Blinken said, adding that Washington is in
talks with major producers and nations around the world.

___

Sylvie Corbet and Vladimir Isachenkov in Moscow, Lorne Cook in Brussels, Geir
Moulson in Berlin and Matthew Lee in Washington contributed to this report.