Macro-Monthly

March 2024

Tanweer Ahmed
tanveer.ahmed@chasesecurities.com
www.chasesecurities.com
021-35293054-60
Economic Data
 Total Imports - SBP
In Feb’24, total imports of the country increased by 10% YoY to clock in at USD4.3bn. However,
total imports declined by 9% YoY to USD34bn in 8MFY24 compared to USD37bn in SPLY.
8,000

7,000

6,000
USD Mn

5,000
4,275
4,000

3,000

2,000
Feb-21

Apr-21

Mar-22

Aug-22
Apr-22
Mar-21

Jan-22
Aug-21

Mar-23
Aug-20

Jun-21

Dec-21

Feb-22

Feb-23

Aug-23

Feb-24
Sep-20

Apr-23
May-23

Sep-23
Oct-20

Jan-21

Oct-21

May-22

Sep-22

Jan-24
May-21

Sep-21

Oct-22

Jan-23
Jun-22

Jun-23

Oct-23
Jul-21

Jul-22

Jul-23
Dec-20

Dec-22

Dec-23
Nov-20

Nov-21

Nov-22

Nov-23
USD 'mn‘ Feb’24 Jan’24 MoM Feb’23 YoY 8MFY24 8MFY23 YoY

Imports 4,275 4,554 -6% 3,878 10% 34,079 37,355 -9%

Source: SBP, Chase
Research

3
 Import Breakup

8MFY23 8MFY24

Others
USD6.6bn
18% Others
USD6.7bn
Petroleum 20% Petroleum
Machinery USD12.6bn USD9.5bn
USD3.2bn 34% 28%
9% Machinery
Textile USD4.4bn
USD3.0bn 13%
8%
Agri Agri
Textile
Food USD5.9bn USD6.0bn
USD2.3bn
USD5.8bn 16% Food 18%
7%
15% USD4.9bn
14%

Source: SBP, Chase

Research

4
 Total Exports - SBP
Pakistan's exports clocked in at USD2.5bn in Feb’24, up by 16%YoY, compared to USD2.2bn in
same period last year. In 8MFY24, total exports grew by 10% YoY to USD20.5bn.

3,500

3,000

2,500
2,556
USD Mn

2,000

1,500

1,000

Feb-24
Jun-23

Nov-23
Nov-21

Nov-22
Jun-22
Apr-21

Jun-21

Aug-21

Dec-23
May-21

Dec-21

Feb-22

Apr-22

Dec-22

Feb-23

Apr-23
Oct-21

Oct-22

Oct-23
Jan-22

Jan-23
Sep-21

Sep-22

Sep-23

Jan-24
Jul-21

Jul-22

Mar-23
Mar-21

Mar-22

May-22

May-23

Jul-23
Aug-22

Aug-23
USD 'mn‘ Feb’24 Jan’24 MoM Feb’23 YoY 8MFY24 8MFY23 YoY

Source: SBP, Chase Exports 2,556 2,697 -5% 2,199 16% 20,538 18,644 10%
Research

5
 Research
USD Mn

Source: SBP, Chase

500
700
1,300
1,500
1,700

900
1,100
Mar-21 1,900

Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21

USD 'mn‘
Jul-21

Textile Export
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21

1,312
Dec-21

Feb’24
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
Textile Exports - SBP

May-22

1,374
Jun-22
Jan’24

Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Pakistan's total textile exports increased by 2% YoY in Feb’24.

MoM

-4.5%

Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
1,289

Jun-23
Feb’23

Jul-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Oct-23
Nov-23
2%
YoY

Dec-23
Jan-24
Feb-24
6
 Research
USD Mn

Source: SBP, Chase

300

150
250
350

100
200
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20

USD 'mn‘

IT Exports
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21

257
Mar-21

Feb’24
Apr-21
May-21
IT Exports - SBP

Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21

265
Jan’24 Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
-3%
MoM

Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
195

Mar-23
Feb’23

Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Oct-23
32%
YoY

Nov-23
Dec-23
In Feb’24, Pakistan's IT exports grew by 32% YoY to USD257mn, compared to USD195mn in Feb’23.

Jan-24
Feb-24
257

7
 Research
-

Source: SBP, Chase

(4,500)
(500)

(4,000)
(3,000)
(1,500)
(1,000)

(2,500)
(2,000)

(3,500)
Jan-22(3,703)

Feb-22 (2,150)

Trade
USD 'mn‘
Mar-22 (3,048)

Balance of
Apr-22 (2,813)
same period last year.

May-22 (3,132)

(1,719)
Feb’24
Jun-22(3,982)

Jul-22 (3,300)

Aug-22 (3,224)

(1,857)
Balance of Trade

Jan’24
Sep-22 (2,457)

Oct-22 (2,372)

-7%
MoM Nov-22 (2,086)

Dec-22 (1,939)

Jan-23 (1,666)
(1,679)
Feb’23

Feb-23 (1,679)

Mar-23 (1,553)

Apr-23 (1,576)
2%
YoY

May-23 (1,166)

Jun-23 (1,058)

Jul-23 (2,080)
(13,541)
8MFY24

Aug-23 (1,850)

Sep-23 (1,500)

Oct-23 (1,614)
(18,711)
8MFY23

Nov-23 (1,718)

Dec-23 (1,306)
In Feb 2024, Pakistan's trade deficit increased by 2% YoY, to USD1.7bn compared to USD1.6bn in

YoY

Jan-24 (1,857)
-28%

Feb-24 (1,719)
8
 Remittances
Inflow of overseas workers’ remittances recorded at USD2.2bn in Feb’24 up by 13% YoY. However
remittances decreased by 1% to USD18bn YoY in 8MFY24.

3,500

3,000

2,500 2,250
USD MN

2,000

1,500

1,000

Nov'22
Dec'20

Dec'21

Nov'23
Sep'23
Oct'22

Dec'22
Sep'20

Nov'20

Mar'21

Jul'21
Aug'21
Sep'21

Nov'21

May'22

Oct'23

Dec'23
Jul'20
Aug'20

Jun'22
Apr'21

May'23
Jan'22
Feb'22

Jun'23
Feb'23
Jan'23
May'21

Mar'22

Jul'22
Aug'22
Sep'22
Jun'21

Mar'23

Jul'23
Aug'23
Oct'20

Oct'21

Apr'22
Jan'21
Feb'21

Apr'23

Jan'24
Feb'24
USD 'mn‘ Feb’24 Jan’24 MoM Feb’23 YoY 8MFY24 8MFY23 YoY

Inflows 2,250 2,398 -6% 1,990 13% 18,084 18,308 -1%

Source: SBP, Chase
Research

9
 Current Account Balance
Pakistan’s current posted a surplus of USD128mn in Feb’24 against the deficit of USD303mn in
Jan’24. In 8MFY24, the CAD recorded at USD1.0bn compared to USD3.8bn in SPLY.

750
1,000

404
504
220

128
500

78
-

(46)

(15)
(50)
(167)
(157)

(365)

(164)

(184)

(303)
(500)
USD Mn

(519)

(363)
(640)

(676)

(569)

(775)
(1,000)
(1,015)

(1,500)

(1,261)
(1,430)
(2,000)
Jun-22 (2,187)
Jan-22 (2,531)

(2,500)
(3,000)

Aug-23
Mar-22

Mar-23
Aug-22

Jan-23

Oct-23

Feb-24
Feb-22

Apr-22

Feb-23

Apr-23
Oct-22

Nov-22
May-22

Sep-22

Jun-23
May-23

Sep-23

Jan-24
Nov-23
Jul-22

Jul-23
Dec-22

Dec-23
USD 'mn‘ Feb’24 Jan’24 MoM Feb’23 YoY 8MFY24 8MFY23 YoY

CA Balance 128 (303) -142% (50) -3.5x (999) (3,846) -74%

Source: SBP, Chase

Research

10
 Foreign Exchange Reserves
Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves clocked in at USD13.391bn, adding USD239mn during the
week ending March 15, 2024.

31,000

26,000

21,000
USD Mn

16,000 13,391

11,000 8,018
6,000
5,373
1,000

Dec-23
Nov-22

Nov-23
Dec-22

Jan-24

Feb-24
Feb-22

Apr-22

Jun-22

Feb-23

Apr-23

Jun-23
Sep-22

Oct-22

Oct-23
Jan-23

Sep-23
May-22

Jul-22

Aug-22

May-23

Jul-23

Mar-24
Mar-22

Mar-23

Aug-23
NET RESERVES WITH SBP NET RESERVES WITH BANKS TOTAL LIQUID
FX RESERVES
Total Liquid FX
End Period Reserves with SBP Reserves with Reserves
Commercial Banks
2019-20 13,132 6,454 19,586
2020-21 17,299 7,099 24,398
2021-22 9,815 5,635 15,450
2022-23 4,467 4,715 9,182
Source: SBP, Chase
Research 2023-TD 8,018 5,373 13,391

11
 Short-term net drains on Foreign Currency
Assets (Jan 31, 2024)

25,000

21,003
20,000

15,000
USD Mn

10,000

5,000 4,106
3,004

649 259 589

-
Up to 1 Month More than 1 and up to 3 months More than 3 months and up to 1 year

Principal Interest

Source: SBP, Chase

Research

12
 Inflation
In February 2024, Pakistan's consumer price index (CPI) clocked in at 23.1% YoY, compared to
28.3% YoY in the previous month and 31.5% YoY in February 2023.

40%

35%

30%

25% 23.1%

20% 21.90%
15%
15.50%
10%

5%

Dec'22

Nov'23

Dec'23
Nov'22
May'22

Sep'22
Mar'22

Jul'22

Aug'22
Apr'22

Oct'22

Mar'23

Jul'23

Aug'23

Sep'23

Feb'24
Apr'23
Jun'22

May'23

Jan'24
Jan'22

Feb'22

Jun'23
Jan'23

Feb'23

Oct'23
CPI Core Inflation (Urban) Core Inflation (Rural)

Feb’24 Jan’24 Feb’23 8MFY24 8MFY23

CPI 23.1% 28.3% 31.5% 28.0% 26.2%

Core Urban 15.5% 17.80% 17.1% 18.0% 14.61%

Source: PBS, Chase Research

Core Rural 21.9% 24.60% 21.5% 25.25% 18.16%

13
 Policy Rate
State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) kept the policy rate unchanged at 22%.

23.00% 22%
21.00%
19.00%
17.00%
15.00%
13.00%
11.00%
9.00%
7.00%
5.00%
Oct-21
Aug-21

Jun-22

Jul-22

Dec-22

Jun-23

Jul-23

Dec-23
Oct-22

Oct-23
May-21

Sep-21

Dec-21

Aug-22

Nov-22
Jun-21

Jul-21

Jan-22

Feb-22

Apr-22

Aug-23

Nov-23
Jan-23

Feb-23

Jan-24
May-22

Apr-23

May-23

Feb-24
Nov-21

Mar-22

Sep-22

Mar-23

Sep-23

Mar-24
18-Mar-24 29-Jan-24 Change 8-Apr-22 Change

Policy Rate 22% 22% 0 bps 12.25% +1225 bps

Source: SBP, Chase Research

14
 Research
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
30.00%

20.00%
25.00%

Source: SBP, Chase

Sep-21

Oct-21

Nov-21

Dec-21

Jan-22

Feb-22

Mar-22

Apr-22

May-22

Jun-22

Jul-22
The average 6M KIBOR reached at 21.10%.

Aug-22
6-Month KIBOR Rate

Sep-22

Oct-22

Nov-22

Dec-22

Jan-23

Feb-23

Mar-23

Apr-23

May-23

Jun-23

Jul-23

Aug-23

Sep-23

Oct-23

Nov-23

Dec-23

Jan-24

Feb-24

Mar-24
21.1%

15
 Treasury Bills
Treasury Bill yields declined from high of 23.63-24.68% to 20.95-20.34% in tenor ranging from 3
months to 1 year

25.20%
24.90%
24.60%
24.30%
24.00%
23.70%
23.40%
23.10%
22.80%
22.50%
22.20%
21.90%
21.60% 20.95%
21.30%
21.00%
20.70% 20.94%
20.40%
20.10% 20.34%
19.80% 3M
19.50%
19.20% 6M
18.90%
18.60% 12M
18.30%
18.00%
17.70%
17.40%
17.10%
16.80%
16.50%

Dec-23
Dec-23
Dec-23
Sep-23
Sep-23
Sep-23

Nov-23
Nov-23
Nov-23
Jul-23
Jul-23
Jul-23
Aug-23
Aug-23
Aug-23
Mar-23
Mar-23
Mar-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
Apr-23
Apr-23

Feb-24
Feb-24
Feb-24
Jan-24
Jan-24
Jan-24
May-23
May-23
May-23

Mar-24
Mar-24
Feb-23
Feb-23

Jun-23
Jun-23
Jun-23

Oct-23
Oct-23
Oct-23
Jan-23

Source: MUFAP, Chase

Research

16
 FBR Tax Collection
The Federal Board of Revenue collected a revenue of PKR681bn for Feb’24, witnessed a growth of
32% YoY, respectively.

1,100

1,000

900
PKR BN

800
681
700

600

500

400

MAR-23

SEP-23
SEP-21

JUN-22

DEC-22
MAY-22

AUG-22

OCT-22
NOV-22

DEC-23
AUG-23
JUL-21

MAR-22

SEP-22

JUN-23

JAN-24
FEB-24
OCT-23
NOV-23
AUG-21

DEC-21
JAN-22

APR-22

APR-23
MAY-23
OCT-21
NOV-21

FEB-22

JUL-22

JAN-23
FEB-23

JUL-23
PKR 'bn‘ Feb’24 Feb’23 YoY 8MFY24 8MFY23 YoY

FBR Tax 681 519 32% 5,831 4,082 30%

Source: FBR, Chase
Research

17
 Research
130
150
190
210
310

170
250
290

270

230
330

Source: SBP, Chase

Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Exchange Rate

Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Oct-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
Jan-24
Feb-24
Mar-24
279

PKR/USD

18
 Research
QIM Index

Source: PBS, Chase

110

100
120
130
150

140
160

Jan'21
Feb'21

QIM Index
Mar'21
Apr'21
May'21
Jun'21
July'21
Aug'21

132.43
Jan’24
Sep'21
Oct'21
Nov'21
Dec'21
Jan'22
Feb'22

132.39
Dec'23

Mar'22
Apr'22
May'22
Jun'22
July'22
Aug'22
MoM

0.03%

Sep'22
Oct'22
Nov'22
Dec'22
Jan'23
Feb'23
130.03
Jan’23

Mar'23
April'23
May'23
Large Scale Manufacturing (QIM Index)

Jun'23
Jul'23
Aug'23
YoY

1.84%

Sep'23
Oct'23
Nov'23
Dec'23
Jan'24
132

19
 Research
115.0

95.0
120.0

110.0
125.0

85.0
90.0
100.0
105.0

80.0

Source: SBP, Chase

Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17

REER
Oct-17
Dec-17
Feb-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18

102.2
Feb-19

Feb’24
Apr-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Feb-20
101.75 Apr-20
Jan’24

Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Jun-21
0.5%
MoM

Aug-21
Oct-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER)

Jun-22
86.40
Feb’23

Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
Apr-23
Jun-23
Aug-23
18%
YoY

Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
102.2

20
Banking Statistics
 Research
PKR BN

Source: SBP, Chase

23,000
25,000
27,000
29,000

15,000
21,000

17,000
19,000
Jul'21

Aug'21

Sep'21

Oct'21

Nov'21

PKR 'bn‘
Dec'21

Total Deposits
Jan'22
Total Deposits

Feb'22

Mar'22

Apr'22

27,886
Feb’24
May'22

Jun'22

Jul'22

Aug'22
27,541 Sep'22

Oct'22
Jan’24

Nov'22

Dec'22

Jan'23

Feb'23
1%

Mar'23
MoM

Apr'23

May'23

Jun'23

Jul'23
22,921
Feb’23

Aug'23

Sep'23

Oct'23

Nov'23

Dec'23
21%
YoY

Jan'24

Feb'24
22
27,886
 Research
PKR BN

Source: SBP, Chase

7,000
12,000

8,000
10,000
13,000

6,000
9,000
Jan'21 11,000

Feb'21
Mar'21
April'21
May'21

PKR 'bn‘
Jun'21

Total Advances
Jul'21
Aug'21
Sep'21
Total Advances

Oct'21
Nov'21
Dec'21

12,062
Feb’24
Jan'22
Feb'22
Mar'22
April'22
May'22
Jun'22
12,095

Jul'22
Jan’24

Aug'22
Sep'22
Oct'22
Nov'22
Dec'22
-0.3%
MoM

Jan'23
Feb'23
Mar'23
Apr'23
May'23
Jun'23
11,723

Jul'23
Feb’23

Aug'23
Sep'23
Oct'23
Nov'23
Dec'23
3%
YoY

Jan'24
Feb'24
12,062

23
 Research
PKR BN

Source: SBP, Chase

22,000

12,000
16,000
20,000
24,000
28,000

10,000
26,000

14,000
18,000
Jan'21
Feb'21
Mar'21
April'21
May'21
Jun'21

PKR 'bn‘
Jul'21
Aug'21

Total Investments
Sep'21
Oct'21
Nov'21
Dec'21
Total Investments

Jan'22

25,449
Feb’24
Feb'22
Mar'22
April'22
May'22
Jun'22
Jul'22
25,603
Jan’24

Aug'22
Sep'22
Oct'22
Nov'22
Dec'22
Jan'23
MoM

-0.6%

Feb'23
Mar'23
Apr'23
May'23
Jun'23
18,993

Jul'23
Feb’23

Aug'23
Sep'23
Oct'23
Nov'23
YoY

34%

Dec'23
Jan'24
Feb'24
24
25,449
 Research
Source: SBP, Chase
PKR Bn

28,000
33,000
34,000

30,000

25,000
26,000
27,000
29,000
31,000
32,000

Mar-22
Mar-22
Apr-22

PKR ‘bn‘
May-22
May-22

Broad Money (M-2)

Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Aug-22
Sep-22

Mar’24

32,480
Broad Money (M-2)

Oct-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
31,191
Feb’24

Feb-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
May-23
4%
MoM

Jun-23
Jul-23
Jul-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Sep-23
28,814
Mar'23

Oct-23
Nov-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
Jan-24
13%
YoY

Jan-24
Feb-24
25

Mar-24
32,480
 Research
PKR Bn

Source: SBP, Chase

8,500

8,000

7,000
7,500
9,000
9,500

Jun-22
Jun-22
Jul-22

PKR ‘bn‘
Jul-22

Circulation
Currency in
Aug-22
Aug-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Oct-22
Nov-22

8,663
Nov-22

Mar'24
Dec-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Jan-23
Feb-23
Feb-23
Mar-23

8,498
Currency in Circulation

Feb’24
Mar-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
Apr-23
May-23
May-23
Jun-23
2%

Jun-23
MoM

Jul-23
Jul-23
Aug-23
Aug-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Sep-23
Oct-23
8,271
Mar'23

Oct-23
Nov-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
Dec-23
Jan-24
Jan-24
Jan-24
5%
YoY

Feb-24
Feb-24
Mar-24
8,663

26
 28%

26%
29%
31%

25%
30%

27%
Jun-22

Jun-22

Jul-22

Jul-22

Aug-22

Aug-22

Aug-22

Source: SBP, Chase Research

Sep-22

Sep-22

Oct-22

Oct-22

Nov-22

Nov-22

Dec-22

Dec-22

Jan-23

Jan-23

Feb-23

Feb-23

Mar-23

Mar-23

Mar-23

Apr-23

Apr-23

May-23
Currency in Circulation (% of M-2)

May-23

Jun-23

Jun-23

Jul-23

Jul-23

Aug-23

Aug-23

Aug-23

Sep-23

Sep-23

Oct-23

Oct-23

Nov-23

Nov-23

Dec-23

Dec-23

Jan-24

Jan-24

Jan-24

Feb-24

Feb-24
27
27%

Mar-24
 Research
PKR Bn

Source: SBP, Chase

8,500

8,000

7,000
7,500

6,000
6,500
9,000

Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21

Credit
Apr-21

PKR ‘Bn‘
May-21
Jun-21

Private Sector
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21

8,616
Feb’24
Jan-22
Feb-22
Private Sector Credit

Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22

8,561 Jun-22
Jan’24

Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
0.6%
MoM

Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
8,594
Feb’23

Aug-23
Sep-23
Oct-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
YoY

0.3%

Jan-24
Feb-24
8,616

28
 Research
PKR Bn

Source: SBP, Chase

300
340
380

200
220
240
260
280
320
360
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21

PKR ‘bn‘
May-21
Jun-21

Auto Financing
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Auto Financing

Oct-21
Nov-21

243
Feb’24
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22

246
Jun-22
Jan’24

Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
-1%
MoM

Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
326
Feb’23

Jul-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Oct-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
YoY

-25%

Jan-24
Feb-24
243

29
 Research
45,000
65,000
70,000

30,000
35,000
40,000
50,000
60,000

25,000
55,000

Source: PSX, Chase

Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
KSE-100 Index

Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Oct-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
Jan-24
Feb-24
Mar-24
65,411

30
 Research
PKR Bn

Source: PSX, Chase

8,500
11,500

5,500
6,500
7,500
9,500
10,500

4,500
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
PSX Market Capitalization

Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
31
9,361
INDUSTRY SALES
 Research
Units

Source: PAMA, Chase

12,000
17,000
22,000
27,000

2,000
7,000
7,953 Units.

Jan-21 14,543

Sales
Feb-21 13,570

Total Car
Sales
Mar-21 17,105

Pak Suzuki

Honda Cars
Indus Motors
Apr-21 14,435
May-21 12,934
Jun-21 11,596
Jul-21 20,669
Aug-21 17,899

Feb’24

4,885

1,517
2,036

7,953
Sep-21 18,971
Oct-21 17,413
Nov-21 15,351
Automobile Sales

Dec-21 24,471

3,642
978

1,636
1,803
Feb’23
Jan-22 16,985
Feb-22 18,054
Mar-22 22,799
Apr-22 18,626
YoY

118%
-7%
13%
399%

May-22 19,395
Jun-22 23,547
Jul-22 10,378
Aug-22 8,980
Jan’24

2,762

1,339
4,550

7,802

Sep-22 9,213
Oct-22 11,129
Nov-22 15444
Dec-22 13,768
MoM

2%
-26%

13%
7%

Jan-23 6,021
Feb-23 3,642
Mar-23 7,201
Apr-23 2,844
May-23 3,934
11,996
8MFY24

31,432

46,417
7,741

Jun-23 4,258
Jul-23 3,702
Aug-23 5,909
Sep-23 6,410
78,575
8MFY23

23,680
52,307

15,443

Oct-23 4,850
Nov-23 4,875
Dec-23 4,916
Pakistan car sales witnessed a massive recovery of 118% YoY in Feb’24, where total car sales clocked in at

Jan-24 7,802
YoY

-41%
-50%
-59%
-40%

Feb-24 7,953
33
 Petroleum Sales
Pakistan oil sales declined by 8% YoY to clocked in at 1.1mn tons in Feb’24 compared to 1.2mn tons in SPLY.

2,212

2,174
2,400

1,988
2,200

1,962
1,963
1,938

1,936
1,823
1,802
2,000

1,753

1,661
'000' Tons

1,800

1,545
1,537

1,526

1,525
1,507

1,443
1,442

1,406

1,382
1,372
1,600

1,350
1,345
1,335

1,296

1,263

1,236
1,216
1,400

1,171
1,105

1,116
1,058
1,200
1,000

Apr-22

Nov-23
Nov-21

Nov-22

Dec-23
Dec-21

Dec-22
Feb-22

Feb-23
Jun-22
Oct-21

Oct-22

Apr-23

Jun-23

Oct-23

Feb-24
Sep-21

Sep-22

Sep-23

Jan-24
Jan-22

Jan-23
Jul-21

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Aug-23
Aug-21

Aug-22
‘000' tons Feb’24 Feb’23 YoY Jan’24 MoM 8MFY24 8MFY23 YoY

FO 50 118 -58% 184 -73% 795 1,708 -53%

HSD 446 478 -7% 513 -13% 4,118 4,426 -7%
MS 544 552 -1% 615 -12% 4,727 5,035 -6%
Total 1,116 1,216 -8% 1,382 -19% 10,183 11,693 -13%
Source: OCAC, Chase
Research

34
 Cement Sales
In Feb’24, total cement sales decreased by 19% YoY to 3.2mn MT. Whereas, cement dispatches clocked in
at 30.5mn MT in 8MFY24, witnessed a growth of 3% YoY.

6.0
5.2 5.3
5.0
4.8
5.0 4.6 4.6 4.5
4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2
3.9 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.0
4.0 3.8
3.5 3.3 3.4
3.3 3.2
‘Mn Tons

3.0
3.0
2.0
2.0

1.0

0.0

Dec-23
Oct-21

Sep-23

Nov-23
Nov-21

Nov-22
Dec-21

Dec-22

Jan-24
Apr-23

Jun-23
Feb-22

Apr-22

Jun-22

Feb-23

Oct-23
Sep-21

Sep-22

Oct-22
Jan-22

Jan-23
Jul-21

May-22

Jul-22

May-23

Jul-23
Aug-21

Aug-22
Mar-22

Mar-23

Aug-23
(000 tons) Feb’24 Jan’24 MoM YoY 8MFY24 8MFY23 YoY

Local 2,863 2,967 -3% -20% 26,058 27,207 -4%

Export 396 447 -11% -11% 4,495 2,597 73%

Source: APCMA, Chase
Research Total 3,259 3,414 -5% -19% 30,553 29,804 3%

35
 '000 TONS'

-
200
500
700

100
400
800

600
900

300
Jan-21 649
82
406

Source: NFDC, Chase Research

Feb-21
88
Mar-21 343
144
Apr-21 309
46
501

Total DAP
May-21

‘000 tons’

Total UREA
173
Jun-21 690
68
Jul-21 622
193
649

115
Aug-21

543
187

Feb’24
Sep-21 487
221
Fertilizer Sales

Oct-21 342 514

Nov-21 574
220
Dec-21 599

67
117

613
sales decreased of 6% YoY, respectively.

598

Jan’24
Jan-22 113
Feb-22 527
55
Mar-22 509
80
Apr-22 459
95
-11%

72%
MoM

May-22 418
94
Urea

Jun-22 737
146
Jul-22 463
67
DAP

Aug-22 552
26
55
527

Sep-22 508
63
Feb’23

Oct-22 430
71
Nov-22 583
236
Dec-22 833
158
3%

631
YoY

109%

Jan-23 96
Feb-23 503
98
Mar-23 489
51
Apr-23 408
51
459
182

May-23
1,156

66
2MCY24

Jun-23 610
158
Jul-23 629
113
Aug-23 650
263
Sep-23 564
194

106
1,134
2MCY23

Oct-23 459
159
Nov-23 611
278
Dec-23 628
138
Jan-24 613
2%

67
YoY to clock in at ~115kt in Feb’24. Cumulatively, in 2MCY24, Urea sales increased by 2% YoY, while DAP

-6%
YoY

Feb-24 543
115
In Feb’24, urea offtakes clocked in at ~543kt, decreased by 11% YoY. However, DAP sales increased by 72%

36
 Disclaimer
Analyst Certification:
All of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the responsible analyst(s) about any and all of the subject securities or
issuers. No part of the compensation of the responsible analyst(s) named herein is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific
recommendations or views expressed by the responsible analyst(s) in this report.

Disclaimer:
This information and opinion contained in this report have been complied by our research department from sources believed by it to be reliable and in good faith,
but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. All opinions and estimates contained in the
document constitute the department’s judgment as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith but
without legal responsibility.

This report is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to BUY any securities. Chase Securities Pakistan Private Limited (the
company) or persons connected with it may from time to time have an investment banking or other relationship, including but not limited to, the participation or
investment in commercial banking transactions (including loans) with some or all of the issuers mentioned therein, either for their own account or the account of
their customers. Persons connected with the company may provide or have provided corporate finance and other services to the issuer of the securities mentioned
herein, including the issuance of options on securities mentioned herein or any related investment and may make a purchase and/or sale, or offer to make a
purchase and/or sale of the securities or any related investment from time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each case either as principal or agent.

This report may contain forward looking statements which are often but not always identified by the use of words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “estimate”, “intend”,
“plan”, “expect”, “forecast”, “predict” and “project” and statements that an event or result “may”, “will”, “can”, “should”, “could” or “might” occur or be achieved and
other similar expressions. Such forward looking statements are based on assumptions made and information currently available to us and are subject to certain risks
and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place
undue relevance on these forward-looking statements. Chase Securities Pakistan Private Limited expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any such
forward looking statements to reflect new information, events or circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.

Exchange rate fluctuations may affect the return to investors. Neither the company or any of its affiliates, nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for
any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or the information contained therein. Chase Securities Pakistan Private Limited, its respective
affiliate companies, associates, directors and/or employees may have investments in securities or derivatives of securities of companies mentioned in this report, and
may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the views expressed in this report.

37