Investigating the causes of traffic accidents and identifying the black hotspot

locations on the Robe – Dodola Road using a multi-criteria regression and

GIS-Supported tool

1 Introduction

1.1 Background of the Study

Traffic accidents are serious issues for both rural and urban areas worldwide because they result
in death (casualties), material loss, human injuries, property damage, economic loss, and social
problems (Cai, 2020; Fatma et al., 2020). According to the World Health Organization (WHO),
nearly 1.38 million people died in traffic accidents globally in 2019. According to numerous
researchers, these risks happened more frequently in developing than developed countries. For
example, Schlottmann et al.(2018), Bonela & Kadali (2022), and Khasawneh et al. (2022)
confirmed that 90% of the injury deaths occurred in low and middle-income countries due to
rapid urbanization, poor road infrastructure, inadequate enforcement of traffic laws, poor vehicle
safety standards, a lack of driver education, and the use of unsafe vehicles. Moreover,
mechanical faults, road deficiencies, and weather conditions (rainfall, severe coldness, fog, and
heat) are the main causes of traffic accident occurrences (Detho et al., 2018; Hammad et al.,
2019). Brazil has the highest number of deaths and property damage caused by traffic accidents
in the world: 40,766 deaths (18.8% rate per 100,000 population) and 1.5 million seriously injured
persons even in 2020 due to similar factors (Deretić et al., 2022; Dos Santos et al., 2019).

Similarly, Ethiopia has a higher traffic fatalities and property damage rate than other African
countries, with 4,161 fatalities (42.41% per 100,000 inhabitants) and 2.28 billion birr in property
damage in 2020 (Mamo et al., 2023; Neki et al., 2023). Only increasing traffic police officers
and enforcing traffic laws will not solve the problem. As a result, numerous countries, including
Ethiopia, launched a road safety strategy to reduce the number of road fatalities and serious
injuries. Furthermore, ERA and the Ethiopian Ministry of Transport have invested huge amounts
of money to upgrade road infrastructure, markings, and signs to eliminate death, even though the
issue causes problems throughout the country. Recently, traffic accidents on the Nekemte-Addis
Ababa, Hawassa-Dilla, Bahirdar-Gondar, and Addis Ababa-Adama roads have resulted in
numerous deaths and material losses. Furthermore, the Robe-Dodola road is in distress and has

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recently had the highest number of accidents since it gets congested with trucks carrying heavy
loads and is not well-maintained. Even more than 20 Madda Walabu University lecturers died as
a result of traffic accidents on May 20, 2023. As a result, this study will investigate the existing
conditions of Robe-Dodola road, identify the causes of traffic accidents, model the various types
of injuries, and identify the black hotspot area for traffic accidents.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

The Robe to Dodola road was constructed from 2006 to 2012 and opened for traffic in 2013.
However, the road is getting more dangerous for traffic accidents, with fatalities and property
damage occurring at various periods. The road contains different types of distress at various
chainages, including alligator cracking, rutting, and potholes, which increase injuries due to
driver errors, mechanical problems, road inadequacies, and weather conditions. Due to land-use
land cover, the presence of the mountain, roadway geometric characteristics, steep slopes, and
curves, risks are increasing, particularly from Garamba to Washa. Furthermore, the irregular road
layout makes it impossible to control the issues, and significant injuries were widespread along
the mountain road cross-section. According to the Ethiopian Ministry of Transport and a police
officer's report, several factors caused the problems; however, the driver's age and license type
were prioritized in Ethiopia. To reduce problems in the study area and have the lowest road
traffic death rates in the country, the country's government and Bale zone traffic office have
implemented various road safety strategies, such as launching a zero-tolerance policy for drivers
who violate traffic rules and educating drivers about the risks and how to drive safely. However,
applying only these strategies will not reduce the risks; therefore, investing huge amounts of
money to make roads safe for pedestrians and drivers will be required. A detailed assessment of
current road conditions will be required to plan and design future safe roads. Furthermore, this
issue is serious and critical, and the study on assessing road safety and forecasting different
levels of injuries on the Robe-Dodola road was not done by earlier researchers. The study will
investigate the causes of traffic accidents, identify black hotspot sites, and predict the severity of
accidents using a model and index to provide appropriate solutions and preventive measures for
reducing the occurrence of traffic accidents.

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1.3 Research Objectives

1.3.1 General objective

The general objective of this study will be to investigate the significant factors causing traffic
accidents and forecast the severity of traffic accidents using multi-criteria regressions and GIS-
supported tools.

1.3.2 Specific Objective

The specific objectives of this study will be:

 To assess the current pavement conditions of Robe to Dodola Road.

 To identify the major factors causing road traffic accidents and black hotspot areas using
GIS-supported tool.
 To forecast the severity of traffic accidents using a multi-criteria approach.

2 Materials and Methods

The study will investigate the Robe to Dodola road conditions, assess the factors causing traffic
accidents, identify the black hotspots, and forecast the different types of injuries. To achieve the
study's objectives, the following materials and tools will be used:
 Samples of each pavement layer will be obtained from the field by excavation,
 The traffic statistics data,
 High-resolution digital elevation model and Satellite image
 Machine learning for indexes of future types of injuries, and
 Arc-GIS (10.3 version) to delineate the road and identify the black hotspot locations.
Primary and secondary data from different techniques will be used in this study. A sample of
each pavement layer will be obtained using field observation at several distressed locations to
assess the existing road conditions and identify the distress types. Arc GIS will delineate the road
alignment, extract the road's slope, and show the black hotspots area of traffic injuries. The
road's Present Serviceability Index (PSI) will also be estimated using a numerical index
developed by Chan et al. (2020) and compared to AASHTO standards based on slope variations,
rut depth, cracking, and patching. The ability of the pavement to serve traffic at any particular
time will be rated from 5 (best) to 0 (worst) in this study. The baseline fatality and injury rates

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will be computed from the total number of fatalities and injuries recorded under various traffic
accident conditions and compared to national and international standards to determine the
severity of risks.
To suggest the appropriate solutions that will reduce traffic accidents, a better understanding of
the human and external factors that cause road accidents will be required. GIS will be used to
rank the most significant factors that cause injuries, such as road slope, road geometry, driver
error, age, license, vehicle technical problem, and other aspects. After the land use land cover
will be estimated from Landsat 8 satellite images along the roadside, the black spot stations will
be identified. In addition, using the Kernel density map in GIS, a separate map will be made
based on accident types, intensity, time of accidents, vehicle type, and severity of street injuries.
Different levels of accident type (number of deaths, serious injured, lightly injured, and material
losses) and risk frequencies will be determined based on traffic policies data. In previous study,
numerous statistical and regression equations were used to estimate accident rates; however, due
to the availability of data in our country, we will use Eq. 1 to estimate equivalent accident
number (EAN) and accident rate (AR).
( AF x 108 ) ( 100 APK )
AR=
L x n x DT x 365 (1)
Where; AF is accident frequency, APK is Accident per kilometres of travel, L is road section
length (km), n is number of accident years, and ADT is daily accident traffic.
Prediction of the number of accidents, injuries, and fatalities is an important task for traffic
safety planners. As a result, using Box and Jenkins-can modelling techniques, the types of
injuries on the Robe-Dodola road will be predicted.
3 Expected Outputs and Impact of the Study
The following finding will be expected from this study:
 The assessment of current pavement conditions and distress types.
 The identification of human and various external factors causing road traffic accidents as
well as the identification of black hotspot stations using geographic information systems.
 The prediction future scenarios injury types along the road alignment.
The impact of this study is: (i) To know the existing pavement conditions and the rate different
distress types such as alligator cracking, rutting, and potholes that will be used for zone and
federal road sectors to maintain safety. (ii) This study's findings will be useful for traffic officers,

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transport sectors, individuals, and government sectors who are interested in launching a road
safety strategy to reduce the number of road fatalities and serious injuries based on the various
human and external factors that cause traffic accidents. (iii) To upgrade road infrastructure,
provide adequate enforcement of traffic laws, consider vehicle safety standards, and construct
new safe roads, a large budget is required. As a result, the study's findings will help in
understanding future different levels of injuries and developing safety policies to reduce deaths
and property damages.

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