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Design of Greenhouses: Part 1:

Importance Factors according to EN 1998-1, 4.2.5
Adaptations for Greenhouses:
Importance Class, Design Working Life, Probability of Exceedance, Reference Return Period

General Principles

Seismic design according to EN 1998-1, 2.1 (1)P aims at two levels of earthquake action. Recommended are two central
Reference Values, see EN 1998-1, 2.1 (1)P, Note 1 and 3.

1. No Collapse Requirement (NCR)

Protection of human life, health and public safety by prevention of global or local collapse of load bearing
structures under very rare (seldom), but large earthquakes
Note 1: The Reference Value for ordinary buildings is an Earthquake Return Period of TR (NCR) = 475 years
for an Exceedance Probability PR(NCR) = 0,1 (10%) within a Reference Period of TL = 50 years

2. Damage Limitation Requirement (DLR)

Reduction of economic losses due to structural or non-structural damages during more frequent earthquakes
Note 3: The Reference Value for ordinary buildings is an Earthquake Return Period of TR (DLR) = 95 years for
an Exceedance Probability PR(DLR) = 0,1 (10%) within a Reference Period of TL = 10 years

EN 1998-1, 2.1 (1)P, Note 2 refers to the Poisson Distribution by allowing: TR = -TL / LN(1 - PR)
with: LN - natural logarithm
This expression is equivalent to the ISO-formula for TR, which uses the Probability of Non-Exceedance p = (1 - PR):
TR = TL / LN(1/p)

Symbols, especially some with changing indices, in EN 1998-1 are not consistent and difficult to work with.
For a better understanding, in this document the Reference Period TL is referred to with "n" only, in contrast to the
Earthquake Return Period TR. The following Probabilities of Exceedance (annual, per Design Working Life n, per 50 years)
can thus be identified, all referring to a Poisson Distribution of the "mean" occurrence of the design earthquake.

Annual Probability of Exceedance: P1 = 1 - e^ (-1/TR)

For large TR ≥ 50 years: P1 ≈ 1 / TR
Probability of Exceedance ref. to 50 years: P50 = 1 - e^(-50/TR)
Probability of Exceedance for a Reference Period n: Pn = 1 - e^ (-n/TR)
For small (n/TR) ≤ 0,02: Pn ≈ n / TR ≈ n * P1
For extra clarity, certain Target Values can be marked with an Index "T" in the following document.

Note 1: Further literature:

In the literature, sometimes Generalised Pareto Distributions with Peak over Threshold Methods e.t.c. are used.
There occurrence probabilities (usually very small, only little data available) are simply accumulated, using a
geometric distribution of results of n independent Bernoulli trials (special case of a Binomial Distribution):
Annual Probability: P1 = 1 / TR and Probability per Life Time n: Pn = 1 - (1 - P1)^n.
Because of (1 - 1 / TR)^TR ≈ 1/e, the expressions are consistent for large TR only, e.g less than 2% deviation for
TR ≥ 25 years and less than 1% for TR > 50 years. For approximations, this is sufficient.
For calculation / calibration purposes however, the expressions should not be used without consistency control, because
inaccuracies could accumulate and results are not comparable any more.
Especially, return periods change dramatically with inaccuracies of small annual probabilities.

Note 2: Eurocode EN 1990:

Although EN 1998-1; 4.2.5 (4) refers to EN 1990, Annex B and the consequences classes CC1, CC2 and CC3, the
reliability concept in EN 1990, Annex B and C does not include special guidance for earthquake. The general or the
special Extreme Value Distributions (Normal-, Lognormal-, Gumbel-, Weibull- etc.), probability equations are not applicable
here. The Target Reliabilities and the classification system are quite different too.
The formulae in EN 1990 should not be mixed with the formulae (Poisson-Distribution) given above.

Earthquake Classification System in EN 1998-1

Ordinary Buildings are classified in EN 1998-1, 4.2.5, Table 4.3 according to their risks, with respect to NCR and DLR.
4 different Importance Classes are introduced.
As a Reference Value the Importance Factor of γI = 1 is assigned to Importance Class II.
For other Classes other values of the Importance Factor are recommended and can be changed if required.
Good reasons for a change are seismic hazard conditions (e.g. in Italy) or public safety considerations.
For special structures additional requirements have to be taken into account.

That is why a class IC0 for structures of no (less than minor) importance to the public safety can be added.
It allows for the economic design of lightweight structures of medium- and low- tech- greenhouses covered with plastic film.
Other commercial production greenhouses are covered by the existing Importance Class IC I. Sales greenhouses open to 2
the public are assigned to Importance Class IC II (Reference Class) and n = 50 years .
The extension of the classification system is based on the recommended Importance Factors γI (in green) for a uniform
Reference Period of n = 50 years (red), see table 2-1.

Reference Period Earthquake Importance Class (EN 1998-1, table 4.3)

(Design Working Life) 0 I II III IV
n in years Earthquake Importance Factor γI
50 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 1,4
Table 5-1: Earthquake Importance Classes and Factors according to recommendations in EN 1998-1, 4.2.5 (5)P

Further Differentiation for different Design Working Lives

With the help of recommended reference values, for a further differentiation, the associated Earthquake Return Periods
and the underlying Probabilities of Exceedance (as Target Values) have to be calculated.
Where NTC 2008 uses the logarithmic Gutenberg-Richter-Relation, EN 1998-1, 2.1 (4) recommends two approximations,
using a potential function with the exponent (1/k), which lead to different Return Periods and Exceedance Probabilities.

Approximation 1: Calculation of TR from γI ≈ (TR/TRC))^(1/k) and

Pn and P1 from Poisson distribution: Pn = 1 - e^(-n/TR)
Approximation 2: Calculation of Pn from γI ≈ (Pn/PnC)^(-1/k) and
TR and P1 using Poisson distribution: TR = -n / LN(1-Pn)

However, the differences are compensated and the total Adjustment Factors remain the same in both cases.
They depend only on the choice of the following reference values for the potential function.

1. The NCR reference values for the Return Period TR = 475 years and its Probability of Exceedance of PR = 10%
for a Reference Period of n = 50 years are recommended in EN 1998-1, 2.1 (1)P, Note 1.
Note: DLR can be deduced from NCR, keeping PR = 0,1 (10%) for TR = 95 years referring to n = 10 years.
Most countries have adopted this recommendation!
Note: An exception is Great Britain (UK). Because of very low seismicity in most regions of the Kingdom, for simplification
purposes a Reference Value for CC3- Structures according to EN 1990 is set with a Return Period of TR(NRC) = 2500 years
and a Probability of Exceedance of PR(NCR) = 0,02 (2%). For ordinary buildings and (of course) also for greenhouses
seismic design is not required, see also declarations of the national authorities, e.g. for Wales.

2. The Seismic Exponent k describes the relation between the Annual Probability of Exceedance (or Return Period) and
the Reference Ground Acceleration (multiplied with an Importance Factor). The exponent k can vary between 2,5 and 4.
In EN 1998-1, 2.1 (4) a medium value of k = 3 is recommended for most sites.
It is supposed to cover regions with high occurrence rates as well as regions with high and medium seismicity in Europe.
Smaller values of k correspond to low seismicity or regions influenced by large magnitudes over long distances,
occurring widely spaced in time.

Approximation 1 gives smaller reductions of the Return Period for Importance Classes IC0 and I, but also smaller increases
for IC III and IV. That is why MIN k is combined with approximation 1 and MAX k with approximation 2, to get MIN and MAX
for IC 0 and I. Additionally the recommended value of k = 3 is given for both cases. There it can be seen, that the different
approximations finally compensate each other.

The total Importance Factor taking into account the Importance Class as well as the Design Working Life TR(n) can be
calculated according to the Note in EN 1989-1, 2.1 (4). TRC is the Reference Return Period of 475 years for IC II, referring
to n = 50 years.
γI,total = (TR(n)/TRC)^(1/k)
The different influences of the Importance Class and the Design Working Life can be represented using two values, the
Importance Factor γI as given in EN 1989-1, 4.2.5 (5)P and an Adjustment factor for the Design working Life fE (n).
γI,total = γI * fE(n)
γI,total = (TR(50)/TRC)^(1/k) * (TR(n) / TR(50))^(1/k)
The Adjustment Factor fE( n) for the Design Working Life is: fE(n) = (TR(n) / TR(50))^(1/k)

In the following tables 5-1 to 5-6 for k = 3 MAX and MIN and the recommended case are derived and presented.
Return Periods are calculated for the complete data set. For sales greenhouses, γI = fE (n) = 1 applies (reference case).
Adjustment Factors are calculated for commercial production greenhouses according to EN 13031-1, with the typical
parameter set of Class A and B for Reference Periods of n = 5, 10, 15 and 30 years.
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Approximation 1: Calculation of TR from γI ≈ (TR/TRC))^(1/k) with TRC and k
NCR with TRC = 475 years and k = 3 Recommended chosen
for CASTA
Earthquake Importance Class (EN 1998-1, table 4.3) also other lit.
n = 50 years 0 I II III IV
Earthquake Return Period TR in years
TR = TRC * γI ^k here: TR(50)
for n = 50 years
103 243 475 821 1303 k=3
TRC EN 1998-1
Probability of Exceedance Pn in the Reference Period n = 50 years
Pn = 1 - e^(-n/TR) here: P50,T
for n = 50 years
0,386 0,186 0,100 0,059 0,038 Poisson
39% 19% 10% 5,9% 3,8%
Annual Probability of Exceedance P1
P1 = 1 - e^(-1/TR) 0,00970 0,00410 0,00210 0,00122 0,00077 Poisson
0,97% 0,41% 0,21% 0,12% 0,08%
Consistency test: Pn = 1 Probability of Exceedance Pn in the Reference Period n = 50 years Bernoulli
- ( 1 - P1 ) ^n 0,386 0,186 0,100 0,059 0,038 test: O.K.
Table 5-1: Variation of the Earthquake Reference Return Periods for different Importance Classes
for a uniform n = 50 years Reference Period

Using Poisson distribution the Earthquake Reference Return Period for any other Reference Period can be
deduced from the inversion of Pn: TR(n) = - n / LN( 1 - P50,T )
Approximation 1 Earthquake Reference Return Periods TR(n) in years k=3
Earthquake Importance Class
Design Working Life 0 I II III IV
n in years
1 2,1 4,9 9,5 16 26
2 4,1 9,7 19 33 52
3 6,2 15 29 49 78
5 10 24 48 82 130
10 21 49 95 164 261 DLR(50)
15 31 73 143 246 391
20 41 97 190 328 521
25 51 122 238 410 652
30 62 146 285 492 782
40 82 195 380 657 1.043
50 103 243 475 821 1.303 NCR(50)
60 123 292 570 985 1.564
70 144 340 665 1.149 1.825
80 164 389 760 1.313 2.085
90 185 438 855 1.477 2.346
100 205 486 950 1.642 2.607
Table 5-2: Variation of the Earthquake Reference Return Periods for different Design Working Lives

The Importance Factor taking into account the Importance Class as well as the Design Working Life can be calculated
according to the Note in EN 1989-1, 2.1 (4). Here both influences are presented separately:
γI Importance Factor γI for the Importance Classes according to EN 1998-1, 4.2.5 (5)P
fE (n) Adjustment Factor for the Design Working Life: fE(n) = (TR(n) / TR(50))^(1/k)

Importance Factors for k = 3 γI fE(n) Total Fraction

n = 5 years: 0,60 0,46 28%
Greenhouses Type B:
Importance Class IC0
n = 10 years: 0,60 0,58 35%
n = 15 years: 0,60 0,67 40% of AgR (475)
Greenhouses Type A: n = 15 years: 0,80 0,67 54%
Importance Class IC I n = 30 years: 0,80 0,84 67%
Table 5-3: Overview over the results
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Approximation 2: Calculation of Pn from γI ≈ (Pn/PnC)^(-1/k) with PnC and k not chosen
NCR with PnC = 0,1 and k = 3 Recommended ?

Earthquake Importance Class (EN 1998-1, table 4.3)

n = 50 years 0 I II III IV
Probability of Exceedance Pn in the Reference Period n = 50 years
Pn = PnC * γI ^(-k) here:
P50,T for n = 50 years
0,463 0,195 0,100 0,058 0,036 k=3
46% 20% 10% 5,8% 3,6% EN 1998-1
Earthquake Return Period TR in years
TR = - n / LN(1 - Pn) here: 80 230 475 839 1347 Poisson
TR(50) for n = 50 years
TRC
Annual Probability of Exceedance P1
P1 = 1 - e^(-1/TR) 0,01236 0,00434 0,00210 0,00119 0,00074 Poisson
1,24% 0,43% 0,21% 0,12% 0,07%
Table 5-4: Variation of Reference Return Periods for different Importance Classes
for a uniform reference Period of n = 50 years

Using Poisson distribution the Earthquake Reference Return Period for any other Reference Period can be
deduced from the inversion of Pn: TR(n) = - n / LN( 1 - P50,T )
Approximation 2 Earthquake Reference Return Periods TR(n) in years k=3
Earthquake Importance Class
Design Working Life 0 I II III IV
n in years
1 1,6 4,6 9,5 17 27
2 3,2 9,2 19 34 54
3 4,8 14 28 50 81
5 8 23 47 84 135
10 16 46 95 168 269 DLR(50)
15 24 69 142 252 404
20 32 92 190 336 539
25 40 115 237 419 673
30 48 138 285 503 808
40 64 184 380 671 1.077
50 80 230 475 839 1.347 NCR(50)
60 97 276 569 1.007 1.616
70 113 322 664 1.174 1.886
80 129 368 759 1.342 2.155
90 145 414 854 1.510 2.424
100 161 460 949 1.678 2.694
Table 5-5: Variation of the Earthquake Reference Return Periods for different Design Working Lives

The Importance Factor taking into account the Importance Class as well as the Design Working Life can be calculated
according to the Note in EN 1989-1, 2.1 (4). Here both influences are presented separately:
γI Importance Factor for the Importance Classes according to EN 1998-1, 4.2.5 (5)P
fE (n) Adjustment Factor for the Design Working Life: fE(n) = (TR(n) / TR(50))^(1/k)

Importance Factors for k = 3 γI fE(n) Total Fraction

n = 5 years: 0,60 0,46 28%
Greenhouses Type B:
Importance Class IC0
n = 10 years: 0,60 0,58 35%
n = 15 years: 0,60 0,67 40% of AgR (475)
Greenhouses Type A: n = 15 years: 0,80 0,67 54%
Importance Class IC I n = 30 years: 0,80 0,84 67%
Table 5-6: Overview over Importance and Adjustment Factors for commercial production greenhouses
 DLR 5
The appropriate Acceleration for the DLR requirement can be derived from the probability ratio of the reference values for IC II.
fE (DLR) Reduction Factor for DLR: fE(DLR) = (TR(10) / TR(50))^(1/k) = 0,585
This is only one of the calculation methods. The earthquake return periods and the reference periods of DLR and NCR have a ratio of 0,2.
That results in the following earthquake return periods:
Importance class IC 0 IC I
n in years 5 10 15 15 30 using
TR (IC,n,NCR) in years 8,04 16,1 24,1 69 138 Approx. 2
TR (IC,n,DLR) in years 1,61 3,2 4,8 13,8 27,6 with MIN
TR (IC,n,NCR) in years 10,26 20,5 30,8 73 146 Approx. 1
TR (IC,n,DLR) in years 2,05 4,1 6,2 14,6 29,2 with MAX
Table 5-7: Variation of the Earthquake Reference Return Periods for NCR and DLR

General Conclusions: with respect to DLR

Due to the Earthquake Importance Classes ICI or IC0, due to the smaller Design Working lives n and for
the Damage Limitation Requirement for commercial production greenhouses according to EN 13031-1,
the Earthquake Reference Return Periods are reduced.
For lower Earthquake Return Periods, the Annual Probabilities of Exceedance increase.
For higher Probabilities the sizes of the reference values of the Earthquake Accelerations can be reduced.

The Reduction can be covered by two Factors to be multiplied with the Reference Acceleration AgR(475)
for the NCR requirement, which have to be provided by the National Annexes
1. the Importance Factor γI
2. the Adjustment Factor for the Design Working Life fE(n).
3. the reduction factor for the DLR requirement fE(DLR)

Most countries have chosen Reference Values of TR (NCR) = 475 years and PR(NCR) = 0,1 (10%) for
Importance Class II. Therefore the Importance Factors γI according to EN 1998-1, 4.2.5, table 4.3 are used.
The Adjustment Factor fE (n) for the Design Working Life depends on the Seismic Exponent k.
If nothing else is given, for the recommended exponent k = 3, the reductions in table 5-8 can be assumed.
In other cases the Adjustment Factors can be deduced following the routine in the table 5-1 to 5-7.

Importance Factor γI, Adjustment Factor fE (n) and DLR-factor for commercial production greenhouses
Seismic Exponent k = 3 γI fE(n) fE(DLR) % of AgR(475) TR(IC,n,DLR)
n = 5 years: 0,6 0,46 0,58 16% 1,8
Greenhouses Type B:
Importance Class IC0
n = 10 years: 0,6 0,58 0,58 21% 3,7
n = 15 years: 0,6 0,67 0,58 23% 5,5
Greenhouses Type A: n = 15 years: 0,8 0,67 0,58 31% 14
Importance Class IC I n = 30 years: 0,8 0,84 0,58 39% 28
Table 5-8: Overview over the results (exact for k = 3) mean values

Considering the Earthquake Return periods for the Damage Limitation Criterion, the question arises, whether earthquakes
with such small return periods up to 5 years are realistic. This is indirectly answered by NTC 2008. There for referenc periods
VN ≤ 2 years earthquake can be ommitted. Return periods are usually larger than the reference periods. So a limit of at least
5 years (yellow area) seems adequate. NTC 2008 gives no values for return periods smaller than 30 years.
That applies to large seismic activity in Italy. That´s why in areas with small or medium seismicity the limit of
TR DLR (n) = 30 years (light gray area) should even be considered.

The seismicity limit also applies. The recommended seismicity limits according EN 1998-1, 3.2.1 (4) and (5) are as follows.

1. In cases of very low seismicity EN 1998-1 does not need to be observed.

2. For the cases of low seismicity simplifications are suggested, but left to the NA.
The degree of seismicity is defined as follows:

Seismicity very low: Ag ≤ 0,39 m/s2 or Ag * S ≤ 0,49 m/s2 (with Ag = γI * AgR)

Seismicity low: Ag ≤ 0,78 m/s2 or Ag * S ≤ 0,98 m/s2

For higher accelerations national regulations about other exceptions may be consulted.
E.g. in Italy and in Great Britain earthquake design can be omitted for all commercial production
greenhouses. They are not open to the public and only occasionally accessed by an authorised persons.
Greenhouse Insurance Companies, like VVaG Wiesbaden, recorded absolutely no collapses or
damages since 1849. This could be due to excellent energy dissipation of lightweight greenhouse structures.
Even if glass plates are used, they are fitted elastcally into Aluminium- and Steel- frames, which allow large
deformations.
On the other hand, the compliance criteria and structural requirements of EN 1998 could not be met without
major or even impossible changes to the greenhouse construction.