WORLD

FOOTWEAR
BUSINESS
CONDITIONS
SURVEY

2023
2nd SEMESTER
ISSUE 9
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by Portuguese Shoes
WORLD FOOTWEAR BUSINESS CONDITIONS SURVEY - 2nd Semester 2023

EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
The most recent statistics reveal a decline in international footwear trade over the
first nine months of 2023. Imports to major markets have decreased compared to
the same period last year. This trend is likely to persist in the near future as the latest
macroeconomic projections indicate slowing GDP growth.

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Despite this slowdown, the general outlook of this survey is positive. Most panel
members anticipate an increase in both the quantity of footwear sold and prices, with
prices expected to rise significantly. This optimism regarding price growth could stem
from the lingering effects of global inflationary pressures, even as inflation rates have
begun to moderate in the current semester. Additionally, the majority of respondents
expect their businesses to remain in "good health" in the coming months, with
employment stabilizing.

Over the next three years, the significance of digital retail channels in footwear sales
is projected to further expand. The cost of merchandise and raw materials continues
to be identified by the panel as the primary challenge faced by the footwear industry
in the next six months. Closely following are competition in domestic markets and
financial difficulties.

In terms of global footwear consumption trends, most panel members anticipate

moderate to strong growth in 2024. On average, experts predict a rise of 9.2% in 2024
compared to 2023. If these forecasts prove accurate, footwear consumption will
increase 13.2% in Africa, 10.6% in Asia, 6.4% in South America, 5.3% in North America,
and 1.5% in Europe in 2024, compared to 2023.

Finally, in this edition of the survey, experts were asked about their perceptions of the
impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on footwear sourcing. While 19% of experts believe

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that international brands have not altered the locations from which they source
footwear, the remaining 81% are split almost evenly between those who think brands
now prefer to disperse production across more countries than before and those who
believe they favor locating production closer to consumer markets.

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WORLD FOOTWEAR BUSINESS CONDITIONS SURVEY - 2nd Semester 2023

BUSINESS
CONTEXT
The most recent statistics for footwear trade, available for the
first three quarters of 2023, show a mostly negative panorama
albeit different from country to country. As compared to the
same period in 2022, footwear imports grew in only four of the
world’s ten largest footwear importers: Spain (8%), Switzerland
(4.8%), Japan (2.6%) and France (1.3%).
On the contrary, in North America, imports fell strongly in the
USA (31.5%), the leading footwear importer worldwide, and
moderately in Canada (10.1%), when compared to the first
three quarters of the previous year. In Asia, imports decreased
0.8% in China and 2.2% in Korea. In Europe, negative
evolutions were registered in Germany (6.5%) and in the
United Kingdom (9.9%).

IMPORTS OF FOOTWEAR
Q1-Q3 2022 vs 2023 (Top Ten importers)

10%
Spain
5% Switzerland
Japan
France
0%
China
Rep. Korea
-5%
Variation 2022 to 2023

Germany
Canada UK
-10%

-15%

-20%

-25%

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-30%
USA
-35%
0 5 10 15 20 25

Imports of footwear - 2023 (thousand million USD)

Source: Trade Map

The most recent projections by the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) estimate an increase in the world’s real GDP of 3% in 2023,
down from 3.5% in the previous. This pace of growth is, however,
uneven worldwide: for e.g., India is expected to grow 6.3% and
China 5%, the USA 2.1%, and the European Union only 0.7%.
In this edition of the Business Conditions Survey, we continue
to look at our expert’s expectations on the evolution of the
footwear business in the near future.

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WORLD FOOTWEAR BUSINESS CONDITIONS SURVEY - 2nd Semester 2023

HEALTH OF
THE BUSINESS
Among producers and traders, the sentiment regarding
the health of their businesses in the next six months is
predominantly positive. Over 60% express confidence, with
40.5% believing it will be strong and 21% anticipating it to
be very strong. Conversely, only 4.3% expect it to be weak.
These perspectives exhibit variations across different lines
of business, organizational sizes, and geographical regions.
Notably, traders are more optimistic than producers,
smaller organizations express more optimism than larger
ones, and respondents from Asia and Africa demonstrate
higher optimism levels compared to those from Europe and
North America.

41%

34%

21%

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4%
0%
Very strong Strong Neither strong nor weak Weak Very weak

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WORLD FOOTWEAR BUSINESS CONDITIONS SURVEY - 2nd Semester 2023
EMPLOYMENT
LEVEL
Regarding expectations for employment evolution over
the next six months, the current survey edition reflects
an overall optimistic perspective. Among the respondents
who shared their views, those anticipating an increase
in the number of people employed exceeded by 29.8
percentage points those expecting a decline. However, it's
32%
INCREASE
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noteworthy that the most prevalent response is "stabilize"
(66.0%). Notably, there are no significant disparities among
respondents from different lines of business or organizations
of varying sizes. However, respondents in Africa and Asia
demonstrate a notably higher level of optimism compared
to those in Europe and North America.
66%
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STABILIZE
2%
DECREASE
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WORLD FOOTWEAR BUSINESS CONDITIONS SURVEY - 2nd Semester 2023

PRICES

Expectations for the evolution of footwear retail prices

are largely optimistic, with 46.6% of experts anticipating
a strong increase (between 5% and 20%) or a very strong
increase (more than 20%). Additionally, 29.7% foresee prices
30% rising moderately (between 1.5% and 5%) over the next six
months. A minimal 4.2% of respondents expect prices to
fall, and that too, only moderately, while 19.5% expect prices

26% to stabilize. These projections are influenced by the impact

of high, albeit decreasing, inflation experienced in the last
semester. This sentiment is consistent among respondents
across various lines of business and organizations of
different sizes. However, it's worth noting that higher
inflation rates are expected in Africa and South America
compared to other regions.

20%
20%

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4%

0% 0%
Very strong growth Strong growth Moderate growth Stabilization Moderate fall Strong fall Very strong fall
(more than +20%) (+5% to +20%) (+1.5% to +5%) (-1.5% to +1.5%) (-1.5% to -5%) (-5% to -20%) (more than -20%)

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WORLD FOOTWEAR BUSINESS CONDITIONS SURVEY - 2nd Semester 2023

QUANTITY

Perspectives on the evolution of the quantity of footwear

sold by country are slightly less optimistic although clearly
positive: 68.6% of respondents expect it to grow – 48.3%
even strongly or very strongly – and 14.4% to stabilize, but
16.9% forecast they will fall. Respondents in Africa and Asia,
more than 80% of them expecting sales to increase, are
more upbeat than elsewhere. Additionally, experts from the
education and consultancy sectors exhibit more optimistic
outlooks than footwear manufacturers or traders.

31%

20%
18%
14%
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10%

5%
2%
Very strong growth Strong growth Moderate growth Stabilization Moderate fall Strong fall Very strong fall
(more than +20%) (+5% to +20%) (+1.5% to +5%) (-1.5% to +1.5%) (-1.5% to -5%) (-5% to -20%) (more than -20%)

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WORLD FOOTWEAR BUSINESS CONDITIONS SURVEY - 2nd Semester 2023
DIFFICULTIES
The expectation of price increases is primarily attributed
to the mounting pressure on the cost of materials. This
concern is highlighted by 46% of our respondents, ranking
as one of the top three main difficulties for footwear
businesses in the next six months and leading the list in
this survey edition. While this concern is prevalent across
all geographies, it is notably acute in Africa and Asia.
Cost of merchandise or raw materials
Competition in our home market
Financial difficulties
Insufficient demand in our home market
Human resources problems (unavailability, lack of adequate training, etc.)
Competition in international markets
Insufficient demand in international markets
Taxes
Lack of adequate equipment or other technological problems
Regulatory or administrative requirements
Legal or administrative obstacles to international trade
Climate
Others
Note: Figures do not sum to 100% because respondents could select up to 3 options.
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Competition in domestic markets and financial difficulties, cited
by 36% and 35% of respondents, respectively, are the second
and third most significant sources of concern for footwear
businesses. Insufficient demand in domestic markets follows,
posing a challenge to over one-quarter of our respondents,
along with insufficient demand and competition in international
markets (21%). Human resources-related problems remain a
significant cause of concern for 21% of respondents, particularly
in Europe and North America.
Taxes have moved up several positions in this list since the last
survey editions, with 20% of respondents mentioning them as
a source of concern. On the contrary, issues such as the lack of
adequate equipment or other technological problems, regulatory
or administrative requirements, legal or administrative obstacles
to international trade, and climate concerns do not surpass 10%
of responses.
46%
36%
35%
26%
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21%
21%
20%
20%
8%
8%
6%
5%
0%
WORLD FOOTWEAR BUSINESS CONDITIONS SURVEY - 2nd Semester 2023

RETAIL
CHANNELS
Since the first edition of this survey, we have been asking
our panel of experts about their expectations regarding the
evolution of the percentage that different retail channels
represent in the total sales of footwear in their country.
About half the experts surveyed believe that digital retail
channels will increase their share in footwear sales in
the next three years, with the perspectives being slightly
stronger for general multi-brand online sellers (balance of
extreme answers of 36 p.p.) than for general online sellers
(34 p.p.) and own-brand retail stores (32 p.p.).
Forecasts are much more moderate for physical stores.
Among those, large-scale retail is expected to perform
better than other formats, with 41% of respondents
expecting their importance to increase. The views on the
evolution of other non-specified retail channels continue
to be positive and are now more optimistic than the
expectations regarding the evolution of own-brand physical
retail stores.

INCREASE STABILIZE DECREASE BALANCE OF

EXTREMES P.P.

Multi-brand online shoe or

51% 35% 14% 36
fashion retail stores

General online sellers 47% 39% 14% 34

Own-brand online retail stores 46% 41% 13% 33

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Large-scale retail 41% 49% 10% 31

Multi-brand shoe retail stores 42% 44% 14% 29

Other channels 28% 57% 15% 13

Own-brand physical retail stores 30% 42% 28% 2

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WORLD FOOTWEAR BUSINESS CONDITIONS SURVEY - 2nd Semester 2023

EXPECTATIONS ABOUT THE

EVOLUTION OF FOOTWEAR
CONSUMPTION IN 2024
We asked our panel about their
expectations regarding the evolution of
footwear consumption in the next year.

31% Most respondents expect footwear

consumption to increase in 2024: 24%
very strongly, 25% strongly, and 31%
moderately. Only 6% of respondents
expect footwear consumption to fall
next year.

25%
24%

14%

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3%
2% 1%
Very strong growth Strong growth Moderate growth Stabilization Moderate fall Strong fall Very strong fall
(more than +20%) (+5% to +20%) (+1.5% to +5%) (-1.5% to +1.5%) (-1.5% to -5%) (-5% to -20%) (more than -20%)

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WORLD FOOTWEAR BUSINESS CONDITIONS SURVEY - 2nd Semester 2023

FOOTWEAR CONSUMPTION
EXPECTED TO INCREASE
9.5% IN 2024
On average, our experts expect a growth of 9.5% in the In Africa, countries with the highest birth rates worldwide, such
consumption of footwear, in pairs, in 2024, when compared as Niger and Angola (as reported by the CIA World Factbook
to 2023.
2023), contribute to the increasing demand for footwear.
Additionally, several African countries, including Mozambique
If the forecasts of our experts prove accurate, footwear
(7%) and Congo (6.7%), are projected to have very high real
consumption is expected to experience more robust growth
GDP growth rates in 2023, according to the IMF. Similarly, in
in Africa (13.4%) and in Asia (10.8%) in 2024, respectively,
Asia, where significant growth is anticipated, countries like
compared to other regions. The driving factors behind
India (6.3%) and Bangladesh (6%) are expected to see higher
this growth in these parts of the world are economic and
real GDP growth rates in 2023, further fueling the demand
demographic trends.
for footwear. These economic and demographic factors
collectively contribute to the projected surge in footwear
consumption in both Africa and Asia in the next year.

FOOTWEAR CONSUMPTION
ESTIMATED GROWTH RATES
FOR 2024

EUROPE
N. AMERICA ASIA
1.4%
5.4% 10.8%

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AFRICA
13.4%
S. AMERICA
6.3%

WORLD
9.5%

According to these estimates, Europe is the least dynamic

continent for footwear consumption, with an expected growth
rate of 1.4% in 2024. The consumption of footwear in North and
South America will continue to grow moderately in 2024.

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WORLD FOOTWEAR BUSINESS CONDITIONS SURVEY - 2nd Semester 2023

IMPACT OF COVID-19
ON THE LOCATION OF
FOOTWEAR PRODUCTION
In this edition of the survey, we asked our experts about While 19% of respondents believe that international brands
their opinion on the impact that the COVID-19 pandemic did not the change the location where they source footwear,
had on the location of footwear production for major the other 81% divide almost equally between alternative
international brands. answers: 40% consider that international brands now prefer
to disperse production by more countries than before
(diversifying the supply chain) and 41% that international
brands now prefer to locate production closer to consumer
markets (shortening the supply chain).

FOOTWEAR SOURCING

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41% 40%
19%

Same location Shortening the supply chain Diversifying the supply chain

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WORLD FOOTWEAR BUSINESS CONDITIONS SURVEY - 2nd Semester 2023

ABOUT
SURVEY

In 2019 the World Footwear has created the World Footwear Experts Panel and is now
conducting a Business Conditions Survey every semester.

The objective of the World Footwear Experts Panel Survey is to collect information
regarding the current business conditions within the worldwide footwear markets and
disseminate this information to provide an accurate overview of the situation of the
global footwear industry.

The ninth edition of this online survey was conducted during the month of November
2023. We have obtained 118 valid answers, 41% from Asia, 32% from Africa, 18% from
Europe, 6% from North America and 4% South America. About 40% of respondents are
involved in footwear manufacturing (manufacturers) or footwear trade and distribution
(traders) and the other 60% in other footwear-related activities, including education and
research (14%), trade associations (12%), consultancy (9%) and other activities (25%).

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Copyright
APICCAPS • DECEMBER 2023

Who we are
World Footwear is an initiative of APICCAPS, the Portuguese Footwear, Components and
Leather Goods Manufacturers’ Association, and it includes two communication channels:
an annual edition of the World Footwear Yearbook and an electronic platform with
updated industry news (www.worldfootwear.com).

The first edition of the World Footwear Yearbook, a comprehensive report that
analyses the main trends within the footwear sector around the world, was released

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in September 2011, with new updated editions published on a yearly basis. Each
report is published with the most updated data up to the previous year and analyzes
the position of the relevant countries of the footwear industry in terms of different
variables (Production, Exports, Imports and Consumption) and evaluates the strategic
positioning of the different sector players. The World Footwear Website disseminates
all relevant news about the worldwide footwear industry on a daily basis.

Report Coordination
APICCAPS’ Studies Office
Joana Vaz Teixeira
With special thanks to Vasco Rodrigues and Filipa Cunha Mota for their contribution.
This report was prepared by the Research Centre in Management and Applied
Economics (CEGEA) of Católica Porto Business School for APICCAPS.

Disclaimer
Although due care has been taken in the preparation of this report, APICCAPS cannot
guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the report and cannot be held responsible
for any error or the opinions expressed herein.
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APICCAPS - Portuguese Footwear, Components

and Leather Goods Manufacturers’ Association

Rua Alves Redol, 372 | 4050-042 Porto, Portugal

T. +351 225 074 150 | editor@worldfootwear.com