Professional Documents
Culture Documents
- Understanding the psychology of the market, and the psychology of self "
Kerron Boothe
FINANCE SPECIALIZATION
Affidavit
By inserting a seminar paper into the Learning Management System of LIGS University, I
Kerron O’Neil Boothe - an Interactive Online PhD student, honestly declare that I have
prepared this graduate paper myself using only the literature presented in the paper. I further
confirm that I have no objection to the publication of this graduate paper/thesis abstract or
part thereof with the approval of LIGS University and with acknowledgement of my
authorship.
ABSTRACT
Not because a trader is profitable, does not mean there is a strategy being utilized. Being
profitable in the markets require following a discipled strategy that is proven to be profitable.
The rules you will ultimately design for yourself will not work in isolation, as they will be a
composite rule set (strategy if you will) then be careful in noting that breaking even a part of
or one rule in your strategy will result in failure.
Understanding price movement is key. Knowing why events move price on the Beta or non-
beta level is paramount to success in investment or trading.
Investors are typically long-term holders of shares or bonds. Traders are typically shorter-
term holders, borrowers even as they often trad cash for difference (CFDs), coming in
flavours of long-term, day- traders, and scalpers.
Key words:
1. Budgeting
2. Corporate finance
3. Financial planning
4. Financial supervision
5. Investing
6. Market instruments
7. Market value
8. Securities
9. Trading
10. Working capital
5
ABSTRACT................................................................................................................................3
Background of the Problem....................................................................................................3
Purpose and Goals...................................................................................................................3
Figures.........................................................................................................................................7
Tables..........................................................................................................................................7
LITERATURE REVIEW...........................................................................................................8
APPROACH...............................................................................................................................9
What is Corporate Finance....................................................................................................10
Finance for Business Decision-Making........................................................................11
Methods for Determining the Market Value of a Company.........................................12
Financial Planning and Budgeting................................................................................12
What is accounting?.......................................................................................................12
How Directors use and Discuss Accounting and Finance.........................................13
Finance Inside of Companies........................................................................................14
Management of the Working Capital............................................................................14
The Financial System and the Financial Market...........................................................14
Financial Risk...................................................................................................................15
Business Risks..............................................................................................................16
Market Risks.................................................................................................................16
Credit Risks...................................................................................................................16
Liquidity Risks..............................................................................................................17
Counterparty Risks........................................................................................................17
Operational risk...............................................................................................................17
Reducing Risk Through Diversification........................................................................17
Beta: The Concept..........................................................................................................18
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)............................................................................19
Risk-Free Rate..............................................................................................................20
CASES..................................................................................................................................20
Beta: Examples................................................................................................................20
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Figures
Figure 1: Calculating Beta Risks..............................................................................................19
Figure 2: CAPM Formula.........................................................................................................20
Figure 3: Some Companies and Their Respective Beta (Stice_Earl & Stice, 2019)...............22
Figure 4: Acquisition factors foe Securities. Source: WallStreet Mojo
https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/.............................................................................................24
Figure 5:Pillars of Basel III. From Source: WallStreet Mojo
https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/.............................................................................................26
Tables
No table of figures entries found.
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LITERATURE REVIEW
In order to gain an unbiased and focused grounding in report writing as a financial
professional it is important to understand the context behind financial numbers and how
decisions are concluded based on those numbers (Williamson, 2018). Literature covered lays
emphasis on how strategic financial decisions should be made by management (Hill &
bookboon.com, 2010). Your preferred productivity tool, examples of which include Microsoft
Excel, QuickBooks, financial Resource Planning software (SAP finance, FinancialForce,
Acumatica Infor., even Archer as a risk management tool, etc) are available to turn a financial
report into a human report with the appropriate level of formality and targeting the
appropriate audience in details and confidentiality. A competent financial professional is able
to appreciate the fundamental reporting principles in finance making presentations and reports
in various forms with correct and concise financial terms (jargon). A financial audience may
be global, which introduced dynamics around local and international law. There may even be
proprietary styles that constrain how the report is written. (Faure, 2013), a Professor & Dr
writes that there are six elements of the financial system:
With the aid of (Nielsen & bookboon.com, 2010) a comprehensive overview of these, (and)
the most important corporate finance topics are to be detailed in this seminar paper. As part of
this PhD program and as an aspirant in working in the financial services industry, the ability
to analyse financial data identify financial opportunities or evaluate outcomes for business
decisions or investment recommendations is a coveted ability. There is a long list of topics to
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cover on the financial side of this report. The coverage of psychological topics will be lacking
as that would require too broad a focus on topics non specific to Finance.
APPROACH
The method is a discussion using sentiment analysis as the established methodology. The
paper is not a proposal of strategy as there is no such silver bullet for trading the markets. The
approach of the paper is focused on knowledge coverage. Coverage of the core themes in the
course and using those themes to formulate and discuss the seminar topic. Focused on
"profitable strategies for trading the financial markets …” This topic outlines the importance
of …” understanding the psychology of the market, and the psychology of oneself." The
method moves through an adequate breakdown of relevant topics that are imperatives to
achieving profit from market trading.
“There is no single strategy, and the only silver bullet is discipline. It can take years to find
the strategy that affords profitability in the financial market and any change to that strategy is
easily a change towards corrupting what was 'perfect', as in you do not fix what is not broken.
Changing your strategy requires proofing it. Not being disciplined about the rule set you have
set for yourself is your recipe for failure1.
The approach will cover definitions around the following themes, key words and phrases as
derived from course outline:
Corporate finance
o short-term financing
o strategic financial and investment decisions
o financial analysis and planning
o financial risk
Methods for determining the market value of a company
Financial planning and budgeting
Management of the working capital
The financial system and the financial market
Categories of financial market and segmentation
1
(Boothe, Certified Trader or Certified Failure. the paths to Profit are all disciplined, 2022)
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Organizations make decisions about financing and how those decisions impact their
organization by focusing on:
short-term financing
strategic financial and investment decisions
financial analysis and planning
financial risk
Short-term financing means taking out a loan to make a purchase, usually with a loan term of
less than one year. Strategic financial and investment decisions mean not only managing a
company's finances but managing them with the intention to strategically succeed via
attaining the long-term goals and objectives of the organization and maximizing shareholder
value over time. Financial analysis and planning (FP&A) is a set of planning, forecasting,
budgeting, and analytical activities that support the organization’s core business objectives
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and ensure overall financial health of the organization. Financially risk will be aptly defined
in later chapters however in brief, financial risk covers a variety of risk associated with the
activity of finance(ing) as defined. Thus far in order to understand the market and in order to
chart out profit making strategies the seminar paper has focused on providing clarity of
definitions and jargons used. There is much more terms and concepts to cover and behind the
understanding of each and via the amalgamation of these concepts are we able to build up the
fundamentals and the fundamental understanding of the market, the sentiments that drive it
and the price action that ultimately rule over the decisions that may be taken. These three
things: Fundamentals, sentiments and price dictate the “psychology of the market”. Market
psychology refers to the prevailing behaviours and aggregate sentiment of market actors at
any point in time. The psychology of the market explains why markets move and when we
speak about the movement of the market, we speak of price movement.
Now, finance is also about risk! As there is the ever-present possibility of losing money (or
value) in any business transaction. The paper will cover the “Big Five” risk that are faced in
finance:
1. business risks
2. market risks
3. monetary risks
4. liquidity risks
5. counterparty risks
* operational risk
As it is seen there is a 6th risk included called operational risk these will cover many things
that are not strictly financial including change and crisis. The list is known to be somewhat
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subjective and in a post pandemic period it is a perfect time for a review of its composition.
No decent seminar paper on finance should exclude a discussion of the famous capital asset
pricing model, the CAPM this will come in a later section.
If it ever necessary to make an investment choice between two companies, then there must be
a method for determining the market value of the two. The list above contains important tools
in making this decision.
What is accounting?
Before my MBA which I completed in Japan 2006 I used say that accounting the little sister
of Finance. Whether I still believe that is unimportant. Investopedia defines accounting also
known as accountancy as the process of recording, summarizing, and reporting financial
transactions to oversight agencies, regulators etc. Wikipedia 2022 defines it as the
measurement, processing, and communication of financial and non-financial information
about economic entities such as businesses and corporations. You don’t need to be an
accountant or finance guru in order to trade and invest. It is sufficient to know the
fundamentals as outlined in this paper and to be able to properly keep track of your own
trading history
Accounting and finance further track what money is used for, where money is going and who
potentially owes it to the organization. Apart from that they both track inventory and
inventory management, acquisitions, loans (who the organization owes) and if not loans then
the available line of credit available with the bank. Accounting and finance track
stocks/shares (we will speak of the difference these two terms, if any, later), also investors (as
opposed to creditors) are tracked.
An investor is an owner and must not necessarily be paid back if things fall apart. A creditor
backed by law, retains the right to be paid back.
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Directors are not allowed to use their inside knowledge of a company’s accounting and
finance to trade. Insider trading is the illegal practice of trading on the stock exchange to one's
own advantage through having access to confidential information. Insider trading can be
categorised as follows:
These are all activities that rewire money, therefore in the end considerations around where
this money comes from is to be made. Source of funding may therefore include:
Loans
Investor funding
Own financing
Once financing is in place, next needed are proper management and controls. The financial
sector is perhaps, next to healthcare, the most regulated sector. Controls around the flow of
money and value is consistently being tracked and audited. This tracking and auditing is a part
of regulatory activities targeting all financial institutions banks, trust company or similar, they
are supervised, and subject to periodic examination by the state level or federal level agencies
in their respective jurisdictions to ensure the safety and soundness of the financial system and
for protecting consumer interests.
Financial Risk
Risk is uncertainty about what will happen in the future. Variability, and the possibility of a
negative outcome or a positive outcome for which there are standard risk responses: accept,
avoid, mitigate, transfer. If you or your organization is risk averse, then avoiding risk is the
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standard operating procedure. Risk tolerance however is for those who for whatever reason,
usually the reward, is willing to take on more risk than let’s say, the risk averse individual.
Risk tolerance may not be the same as risk seeking. Risk-seeking refers to an individual who
is willing to accept a much greater economic uncertainty in exchange for the potential of
higher returns/reward. In order to get anyone to accept more risk, it is usually necessary to
entice with higher expected returns/reward. Much of finance involves reducing risk,
eliminating risk or pricing risk(in).
Business Risks
The first rule of business is buy low and sell high. It is also the first rule in trading and a topic
in my 2022 book “Certified Trader or Certified Loser – The paths to profit are all
disciplined,”. Effectively, without the existence of business risks profit making is not
possible. Business risk is any exposure an enterprise or business has to factor(s) that may
lower profitability, value or cause it to irreparably fail to deliver its goods or service.
Market Risks
Market risk can be defined as the risk of losses in or on off-balance sheet positions arising
from adverse movements in market prices (Wikipedia). It is alternatively defined by the
Federal reserve as the possibility that an individual or other entity will experience losses due
to factors that affect the overall performance of investments in the financial markets 2. Market
risk is the risk of losses in positions arising from movements in market prices Market risks
also referred to as systematic risk, affects the performance of the entire market simultaneously
and may ultimately be referred to a s Beta risks.
2
Board of the Federal ReserveSystem. "Supervisory Policy and Guidance Topics: Market Risk Management."
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Market risk may arise due to changes to interest rates, exchange rates, geopolitical
events, or recessions.
Credit Risks
The third kind of financial risks are credit risks. Credit is important to keeping a business
going and to help it grow. Just like with an individual credit score, if a company's perceived
corporate credit worthiness falls, or goodwill is tarnished the cost of credit for that company
will rise.
Liquidity Risks
The fourth kind of financial risks are liquidity risks. Companies don't go out of business by
issuing too many shares. They go out of business because they have no money, no credit, or
they cannot meet their debt obligations. As an entrepreneur I have experienced this first hand
during the Covid Pandemic. Access to my business cash was cut off through German
bureaucracy and that was the end of business. A crisis if you ask me. As it sank me into
depression and dark places I have never been.
Counterparty Risks
The fifth kind of financial risks are counterparty risks. Counterparty risk are experience once
you have to buy goods or services from a vendor. Or for example if you buy insurance or
sign a long-term contract or via hedging. When companies hedge their risks, they do it with a
physical or financial counterparty. An airline might hedge its jet fuel costs in an agreement
directly with a refinery. A car manufacturer might have a long-term agreement with a steel
factory. You have within your control your business but not that of your counterparty and
therein lies the risk.
Operational risk
Operational risks are about those opportunities and uncertainties a company faces in the
course of operation. Operational risk includes potential losses caused by flawed or failed
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processes, policies, systems, or events that disrupt business operations. Quality deviations,
employee errors, criminal activity such as fraud, can all trigger an operational risk.
Risks can be reduced by making a good business decision. Understanding the psychology of
the market, and the psychology of self is a risk management activity.
The concept of diversification assists companies and investors in managing risk. (Stice_Kay
& Stice, 2019). Diversification is just a fancy way of saying don't put all your eggs in one
basket.
Before jumping right into the CAPM, the paper will first examine what makes up the
measure. This legendary model starts with some simple understandings:
Risk appetite
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Risk reward
Risk diversification (if possible, not for Beta)
To trade the markets, one must have a level of risk appetite. Some traders are risk
averse, therefore they must be compensated in order to get them to accept risk. Beta,
computationally, is the covariance between a company's returns and the market
returns divided by the variance in the market returns:
I confess, I may never use this, my job description is different! If you can't eliminate Beta
risk, it needs to be priced (in). In other words, you should expect a higher return for assuming
that risk. Therefore, Beta helps you in measuring that higher expected return.
Risk-Free Rate
The risk-free rate is another component of the infamous capital asset pricing model. The risk-
free rate represents the return an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free
investment over a specific period of time. The risk-free rate is useful in helping a potential
investor compute how much return to expect for a given level of risk. It calculates for a given
level of risk, how much return over and above the risk-free rate would an investor require. It
serves as the benchmark for an expected return involving no risk. When we start to price risk
into our expected return, the premium reflected in that price is the increment over and above
the risk-free rate.
CASES
Beta: Examples
Example 1:
“Consider Ford Motor Company. If you are fearful of your job, if the economy is going
down and you are fearful of a recession than you're not going to run out and buy a new
car. So, when there is a little downturn in the economy Ford Motor sales go down
substantially.
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When the economy tightens up big construction projects grind to a halt, so Caterpillar, the big
construction equipment company, sees sales go down when the economy takes a turn for the
worse. But when the economy goes back up lots of people want to buy cars.
There's been a pent-up demand so Ford Motor sales go way up. The same is true with
construction equipment. When the economy goes up a little Caterpillar stock price goes up a
lot. That relationship is reflected in a high Beta” (Stice_Earl & Stice, 2019).
Example 2:
“Consider Bank of America. Banks, especially large banks, have started engaging in more
risky behaviour. They are selling derivatives. They are trading derivatives and collateralize
debt instruments and mortgage-backed securities, which all sound very exotic and scary. And
it is scary because what it's done is this:-
when the broad economy is doing well large banks such as Bank of America do great. When
the economy goes down these banks get killed, they get hammered. They have a large Beta
risk.
Now, let's consider companies with Beta around one. Facebook, Microsoft, and Apple all
have betas around one. This reflects the broad importance of technology in our economy. The
economic prospects of these technology companies pretty much track the economy.
When the economy is strong these companies are strong. When the economy goes down a
little bit, they go down a little bit. They have a beta of around one. What does it mean for a
company to have a beta that's quite low?
Well, McDonald's, Walmart, and Coca Cola have betas that are quite low because even when
the economy is down you need to buy clothes, you need to buy groceries, you need fast food,
and you need something to drink. When the economy goes up you don't all of a sudden decide
you need five Big Macs a day, one will probably still do. So the fluctuations of performance
of Walmart, McDonald's and Coke are almost independent of what happens in the broader
economy … Regardless of the state of the economy people still turn on their lights, they still
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have refrigerators, and they still charge their phones. A low beta means a company is not
really impacted by broader economic movements…”
Figure 3: Some Companies and Their Respective Beta (Stice_Earl & Stice, 2019)
There exists the stock market where trades of shares reflecting the ownership of publicly
traded company are bought and sold.
A stock is the actual asset in which you invest, while a share is the unit of measurement for
that asset. A stock tells you what you are investing in, and a share tells you how much of that
stock you own. A stock is evidence that a stockholder is an owner of a portion or a share of a
corporation. If you own a share of stock, you are an owner in that corporation. The
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stockholder receives the stock, typically in exchange for paying cash to the previous owner of
the shares.
A bond, on the other hand, is evidence that the bondholder is owed money by the company
that issued the bond.
In essence, a bond is an IOU. The bondholder receives the bond, typically in exchange for
paying cash to the previous owner of the bond. The Bond market offers opportunities for
companies and the government to secure money to finance a project or investment. Bonds are
effectively loans and interest paid on them are fixed. A bond is a type of security under which
the issuer owes the holder a debt and is obliged by law to repay it according to the terms of
repayment. The principal of the bond at maturity date as well as interest falls due at a
specified time.
The commodities market is where trading in the primary economic sector rather than
manufactured products sector is carried out. Trades in gold, oil, cocoa, wheat and sugar are
examples of commodities.
The derivatives market refers to the financial market for financial instruments such as futures
contracts or options. There are four kinds of participants in a derivatives market: hedgers,
speculators, arbitrageurs, and margin traders.
3
Investopedia
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Securities
Securities are fungible and tradable financial instruments used to raise capital in public and
private markets. There are primarily three types of securities:
Primary and secondary securities market: The primary market is where securities are created,
while the secondary market is where those securities are traded by investors. In the primary
market, companies sell new stocks and bonds to the public for the first time, such as with an
initial public offering (IPO). Secondary markets are like that of used car markets.
Margin lending transactions are transactions in which a credit institution extends credit in
connection with the purchase, sale, carrying or trading of securities. Margin lending
transactions do not include other loans that happen to be secured by securities collateral.
If cost of capital is lower, that means there are a greater number of attractive projects out
there. So the major objective of corporate finance and capital structure is to find the capital
structure that will provide the lowest weighted average cost of capital, the WACC.
profitability,
efficiency, and
leverage.
When it comes to return on equity, the DuPont framework is a general overall measure of a
company's performance for a given period of time, and it is the foundation for one of the most
amazing creations in accounting history.
Leverage is an indication of how much money have we borrowed to purchase assets. And
why do we purchase assets? We purchase assets in hopes of generating sales. The leverage
measure tells us, of our assets, how many were acquired with the equity that's been put into
the company.
The aim of our supervisory work is to result in a financial system that meets the needs of
consumers and the wider economy in a sustainable manner over the long term.
Common bank regulations include reserve requirements, which dictate how much money
banks must keep on hand; capital requirements, which dictate how much money banks can
lend; and liquidity requirements, which dictate how easily banks can convert their assets into
cash. Basel III for example, is an international regulatory accord that introduced a set of
reforms designed to mitigate risk within the international banking sector by requiring banks to
maintain certain leverage ratios and keep certain levels of reserve capital on hand.
CONCLUSION
We are now armed with knowledge of the markets. Unfortunately, there was little to offer in
the realm of psychology of self, that’s a whole different course. However, the understanding
of these fundamental principles is invaluable in making trading and investment decisions.
Comprehensive understanding allows investors and traders to participate in the raising money,
in the offering and reselling of stock /shares, corporate or government bonds, and allows said
investors or traders to participate in the financial achievements of the companies, sharing in
their profits through capital gains, and earned income or through dividends. Financial markets
facilitate dealings between those who need capital with those who have capital to invest.
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It is also important to state that the contents of this paper is not to be taken as financial advise
as there are jurisdictions and laws which prohibit and limit such advice, allowing it to only
come from licensed financial advisors.
Since the goal of the paper was full coverage of content the need for analysis is moot and
what remains is to show how understanding the information presented is important to being a
successful trader or investor.
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