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6th International Energy Conference (Astechnova 2021) IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 927 (2021) 012016 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/927/1/012016

Analysis of Potential and Feasibility of Hydropower Energy

from Sepaku Semoi Dam in Penajam Paser Utara Regency

Faruq Nashrulloh1, Muhammad Sulaiman2, and Rachmawan Budiarto3

1
Master in System Engineering, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia
2
Departement of Civil Enviromental Engineering, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia
3
Departement of Nuclear and Physics Engineering, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia

faruq.nashrulloh@mail.ugm.ac.id

Abstract. This paper will present a techno-economic potential and feasibility analysis in the
planning of renewable hydropower energy from Sepaku Semoi Dam in Penajam Paser Utara
(PPU) Regency. The dam was planned to be built to support the water needs of Indonesia's
prospective capital. The analysis was done based on the last twenty years' rainfall intensity data
history from Sepaku rain station and Sepinggan rain station and digital elevation model (DEM)
from DEMNAS with support of the river basin agency of Kalimantan Timur. The result of
dependable discharge calculation of Sepaku Semoi river using FJ Mock Method is 2.45 m/s2.
And the head of the hydropower power plant is 15.85 meters. The total potential electricity
generated from hydropower reached 2,593,140 kWh/year. The assessment of feasibility
indicators in this research took into account the technology and economic aspects. The
technology aspects help evaluate the technical planning of installations that are possible to build
in the dam. The economic aspect of feasibility evaluates the net present value (NPV), internal
rate of return (IRR), and the payback period of renewable energy installation. This analysis
aimed to get a comprehensive insight from the potential hydropower energy that exists at the
research locations and conduct a feasibility study based on techno-economic analysis to develop
renewable energy. The results showed that 15.85 meters had the most significant potential of
hydropower by generating 290 kW continuous power with a feed-in tariff of 0.054 USD/kWh.
The electricity was feasible to offer to the government electrical company. Moreover, this project
had a payback period of 8 years, and NPV of 64,005 USD, and an IRR Project of 11.86%.

1. Introduction
The Indonesian government announced the relocation of its capital from Jakarta to Sepaku District,
part of Penajam Paser Utara Regency, and Samboja District, part of Kutai Kartanegara Regency
Kalimantan Timur Province. The new capital city, in the plan, would go to use the living-with-nature
concept, which would optimize the use of renewable and low carbon energy with sustainable
governance and efficient technology [1]. One of the new and renewable energy sources is hydropower.
The data obtained from the River Basin Organization for Region III of Kalimantan Timur shows that
Penajam Paser Utara has 50 watersheds. In planning for the new capital city, in the Sepaku-Semoi
watershed, a dam will be built to meet the people's daily needs for water and irrigation [2]. The dam to
be built has potential that should be analyzed for technical and economic feasibility as a clean electric
energy generator to meet electricity needs and reduce environmental pollution and global warming
problems due to greenhouse gases from fossil fuels [3–5].
Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distribution
of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.
Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd 1
6th International Energy Conference (Astechnova 2021) IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 927 (2021) 012016 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/927/1/012016

This paper aimed to analyze the techno-economic potential and feasibility of renewable energy to
support energy development in Penajam Paser Utara Regency and develop a sustainable hydropower
plant to resolve the energy crisis and environmental issues to fulfill 25% of the renewable energy
development target of National Energy Planning of Indonesia [4]. It would be an initial step for
supporting the new capital of Indonesia, which would optimize renewable energy use. The paper
focused on the energy generated from Sepaku Semoi Dam [6].

2. Methodology

2.1. Potential Analysis

Water energy potential analysis was done through several processes, namely analysis of rainfall
intensity for the last ten years and measurement/calculation of water discharge. Rainfall intensity data
were obtained from the meteorological satellite TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission)
compared with ground stations near the watershed, namely Sepinggan Station, Waru Station, Samboja.
The next step was calculating mainstay discharge, which means the discharge available for
particular purposes such as irrigation (75%-85%), hydropower (80%-90%), industrial water (95%-
98%), and drinking water (99%) throughout the year, with calculated risks [7]. In this step, the
probability of 90% of the water source inflow discharge was calculated for recording the discharge for
a certain period using the mock FJ method [8].

2.2. Technical Analysis

Theoretically, calculating the power that can be generated by hydropower plants is done with the
approach [9]:
� = � ∗ �� ∗ �� ∗ �� ∗ � ∗ � (1)
where P is theoretical power (kW), g is the gravitational acceleration (9,81 m/s2), �g is generator
efficiency (0< � <1), �t is turbine efficiency, �m is transformer efficiency, Q is water discharge (m3/s),
H effective head or water level which has been calculated for losses in the water flow path (m).
The water-energy value plan was designed based on the technical specifications of the Sepaku
Semoi dam provided by the River Basin Organization for Region III of Kalimantan. From these
specifications, the value of the elevation of the riverbed is calculated [10]. The power calculation is
carried out by considering the efficiency of the generator and turbine [11].

2.3. Economic Analysis

Analysis of the economic aspects carried out in this study included the calculation of investment costs,
Levelized cost of energy (LCOE), net present value (NPV), benefit-cost ratio (BCR), payback period
(PBP), and internal rate of return (IRR) [12]. LCOE is a general indicator used to compare electricity
supply cost options. These costs generally consider capital expenditure, operating and maintenance
costs, fuel costs, and costs involved in decommissioning. It stands for investment expenditure ($), Mt
for operations and maintenance costs ($/yr.), Ft for fuel expenditure ($/yr.), Et for electricity generated
(kWh/yr.), r for the discount rate, and n for the life of the system [13]. The LCOE is as follows:
� �
���� = �� + �� + �� / 1 + � / ��/(1 + � (2)
NPV is a method for calculating net present value at present interest rates. PV stands for the present
value, F for the future payment, i for the discount rate, and n for the number of future cash flow
periods. NPV is feasible in a project if NPV> 0, and not feasible to be implemented if NPV is negative.
If NPV = 0, then the project returns are the same as the required rate of return. The formula for
calculating NPV is as follows:
�
��� = �/ 1 + � (3)

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6th International Energy Conference (Astechnova 2021) IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 927 (2021) 012016 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/927/1/012016

The benefit-cost ratio (BCR) method is often used in the initial evaluation stages of investment
planning. It emphasizes the value of the comparison between aspects of benefits to be obtained with
aspects of costs and losses in a project (Cost). (PV) B stands for benefit value, while (PV) C for cost
value. If the B/C ratio> 1, the project is accepted, and if it <1, the project is rejected. Meanwhile, if it =
1 means neutral. The BCR formula is as follows:
��� = (��)�/(��)� (4)
IRR is a method used to find interest rates that equate to the present value of future cash flows or cash
receipts by issuing an initial investment. i1 means a discount rate for positive NPV, i2 is the discount
rate for negative NPV, NPV1 is positive net value, and NPV2 is negative net value. This paper used a
minimum requirement of feasible IRR is 11%. The formula for calculating IRR is as follows.
��� = �1 + (���1/���1 − ���2) � (�1 − �2) (5)
PBP is a calculation or determination of the specific period for covering the initial investment of a
project using cash flow generated by the project. Cf stands for the initial investment and A for the
yearly cash flow. PBP is eligible if shorter than the life cycle of the project and vice versa.
��� = ��/� (6)

2.4. Feasibility analysis

According to IMIDAP, several aspects needed to meet the eligibility criteria are the length of the
transmission network possible for the distribution, the number of consumers, the daily potential of
electricity generated, the continuity of water availability, stable water function, the location of the
power plant that is not in a nature reserve area, the availability of potential of human resources as
managers, and the clarity of land ownership [14].
The economic feasibility value followed the analysis of the economic aspect at point 2.3, which
was given a limit on the feasibility value for each variable [9,15]. The feasible indicator criteria are
shown in Table 1.

Table 1. Table of technical and economic feasibility requirements [9,14,16].

Category Indicator Feasible Criteria
Feasibility of the point of connection (power receiving
Network coverage
substations) for the system is still possible.
Number of potential Availability of data on the number of people, houses, and
customers heads of families.
Potential power Feasibility aspects by considering the head and discharge.
Technical

Continuity of water Continuity of water availability with minimum limit

availability criteria of 1.0 - 3.0 m3/second.
Effect on the function of The availability of the main water system functions is not
the water system disturbed/reduced.
Power plant location Not in a nature reserve or protected forest area
Land Availability Availability of land to build a hydropower plant
Availability of operating personnel who carry out
Potential Workers
operations and maintenance
LCOE Below feed-in tariff of PLN Rp1,571 (Rp/kWh)
Economical

NPV The net present value of the project must be positive

IRR The internal rate of return must be above 11%
BCR The benefit-cost ratio must be positive

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6th International Energy Conference (Astechnova 2021) IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 927 (2021) 012016 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/927/1/012016

3. Results and Discussion

The results of collecting data from River Basin Organization (BWS) regional III and Public Works
Service (PU) of Kalimantan Timur. The Sepaku Semoi watershed obtained from TRMM which were
then tested with three ground stations shown in Table 2:

Table 2. Table of rainfall intensity in the Penajam Paser Utara Regency.

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total Average
1998 29 4 2 69 286 279 279 209 172 146 225 302 2,000 167
1999 256 387 279 165 218 99 132 110 185 259 211 316 2,557 213
2000 196 266 196 314 165 295 109 136 167 252 444 194 2,735 228
2001 535 227 164 259 145 88 88 17 201 142 194 217 2,276 190
2002 174 133 245 149 180 328 66 66 24 73 313 178 1,930 161
2003 278 113 437 220 260 192 66 296 188 161 183 298 2,693 224
2004 222 232 396 195 349 96 157 0 169 36 227 333 2,411 201
2005 175 100 244 200 255 135 156 98 34 214 332 305 2,247 187
2006 191 352 226 195 253 244 21 81 167 42 139 177 2,087 174
2007 312 196 223 298 160 200 292 146 152 101 223 169 2,469 206
2008 189 270 342 289 150 213 385 236 150 230 332 297 3,082 257
2009 359 199 248 267 95 89 81 52 20 156 138 261 1,965 164
2010 201 150 253 219 260 252 299 261 227 233 226 194 2,775 231
2011 207 124 203 351 166 230 101 78 227 177 203 295 2,361 197
2012 372 241 291 216 179 143 202 85 74 161 215 185 2,362 197
2013 208 397 168 271 207 140 137 127 160 152 245 255 2,467 206
2014 290 147 191 197 197 168 57 102 24 61 233 312 1,979 165
2015 255 305 171 464 140 200 24 5 50 40 190 179 2,021 168
2016 154 43 268 181 213 149 38 15 1 140 89 156 1,447 121
2017 157 155 299 259 360 127 126 198 66 215 243 245 2,450 204
2018 205 337 272 324 241 170 32 80 134 136 249 374 2,554 213

From the rainfall data in Table 2, the 90% mainstay discharge is calculated using the Mock method
used for hydroelectric power plants, collected, and arranged by month as shown in Figure 1 and Table
3.

Figure 1. Flow duration curve by month.

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6th International Energy Conference (Astechnova 2021) IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 927 (2021) 012016 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/927/1/012016

Table 3. Recapitulation of the 90% mainstay discharge by month.

Discharge Volume Volume Total Discharge
Month Period Total
m³/s (m³) (m³) m³/s
January I 15 1.86 2,406,542.04 5,914,318.76 2.21
II 16 2.54 3,507,776.72
February I 15 1.94 2,518,804.39 5,153,040.21 2.06
II 14 2.18 2,634,235.82
March I 15 1.75 2,264,341.09 4,679,638.25 1.75
II 16 1.75 2,415,297.16
April I 15 2.61 3,386,381.81 7,204,934.95 2.78
II 15 2.95 3,818,553.14
May I 15 3.63 4,701,446.04 8,739,300.55 3.26
II 16 2.92 4,037,854.51
June I 15 3.51 4,555,295.24 9,286,995.23 3.58
II 15 3.65 4,731,699.99
July I 15 3.2 4,142,985.86 8,211,149.72 3.07
II 16 2.94 4,068,163.86
August I 15 2.56 3,315,566.59 6,289,120.52 2.35
II 16 2.15 2,973,553.93
September I 15 2.29 2,965,691.45 5,634,813.76 2.17
II 15 2.06 2,669,122.31
October I 15 2.13 2,756,511.62 5,237,372.08 1.96
II 16 1.79 2,480,860.46
November I 15 2.07 2,684,195.68 5,164,824.27 1.99
II 15 1.91 2,480,628.59
December I 15 2.07 2,678,516.57 5,910,322.46 2.21
II 16 2.34 3,231,805.89

Table 2 shows that the highest discharge of 3.58 m3/s was in June and the lowest one of 1.75 m3/s.
Also, the analysis result shows that the highest discharge is in January dan February. The lowest
discharge in September and November while in June is the most stable discharge within the last 20
years calculation. As for the mainstay debit calculation by year, the 90% probability was in 2014,
which was 3.12 m3/s.
Based on the design of the Sepaku-Semoi dam, both in specifications and layout on the contour
map, the intake point is at coordinates x 116.8495 and y -0.9027, with an elevation of 23 m, and the
turbine is at coordinates x 116.83997 and y -0.91593, with an elevation of 7 m. With a 16 meter
elevation and a 100-meter penstock design, the effective head is obtained after deducting losses along
the penstock to the turbine. Based on the coordinates, the location of the powerhouse is 30-50 meters
far from the daily substation with 488 families in the vicinity. The area is far from protected forests
and nature reserves and is still in the form of vacant land and forest where dam facilities can be built
there with environmental consideration. The calculation results are summarized in Table 4. From the
calculation results, in terms of power, this hydropower plant is categorized as Mini Hydro 100 kW - 1
MW [17].

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6th International Energy Conference (Astechnova 2021) IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 927 (2021) 012016 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/927/1/012016

Table 4. Scenario of hydropower development at the Sepaku Semoi dam [18–20]

p Q g H ղ ղ ղ ղ Cf P Energy
Month
kg/m3 m3/s m/s2 m Tur Gen Tran Total (kW) (MWh)
Jan 1,000 2.21 9.81 15.41 0.87 0.95 0.95 0.79 0.62 262.40 1,425.84
Feb 1,000 2.06 9.81 15.41 0.87 0.95 0.95 0.79 0.62 244.59 1,329.06
Mar 1,000 1.75 9.81 15.41 0.87 0.95 0.95 0.79 0.62 207.78 1,129.06
Apr 1,000 2.78 9.81 15.41 0.87 0.95 0.95 0.79 0.62 330.08 1,793.59
May 1,000 3.26 9.81 15.41 0.87 0.95 0.95 0.79 0.62 387.07 2,103.27
June 1,000 3.58 9.81 15.41 0.87 0.95 0.95 0.79 0.62 425.07 2,309.73
July 1,000 3.07 9.81 15.41 0.87 0.95 0.95 0.79 0.62 364.51 1,980.69
Aug 1,000 2.35 9.81 15.41 0.87 0.95 0.95 0.79 0.62 279.02 1,516.16
Sept 1,000 2.17 9.81 15.41 0.87 0.95 0.95 0.79 0.62 257.65 1,400.03
Oct 1,000 1.96 9.81 15.41 0.87 0.95 0.95 0.79 0.62 232.72 1,264.55
Nov 1,000 1.99 9.81 15.41 0.87 0.95 0.95 0.79 0.62 236.28 1,283.90
Dec 1,000 2.21 9.81 15.41 0.87 0.95 0.95 0.79 0.62 262.40 1,425.84
Average 1,000 2.45 9.81 15.41 0.87 0.95 0.95 0.79 0.62 290.80 1,580.14

The next discussion is related to other technical components, namely turbines and generators,
which are components contained in hydropower [21]. The results of the analysis of the power that can
be generated by hydropower in Table 3 can be used as the basis for determining the type and
specifications. The results of the technical analysis are listed in Table 5.

Table 5. Hydropower plant technical specification analysis [22].

No Description Value
A Turbine Turbine
1 Type of Turbine Kaplan, Horizontal
2 Weight of Turbine 479 kg
3 Number 2 Unit
4 Daily 290.80 (kW)
5 Revolutions per minute 800 rpm
6 Turbine Specific Speed 481.47 m-kW
E Generator Generator
1 Type Sync Generator
2 Number 2 Units
3 Phase 3 Phases
5 Frequency 50 Hz
6 Voltage 6.30 KV
7 Number of Poles 8 Poles
8 Revolutions per minute 800 rpm
9 Power Factor 0.85

The results of the above economic parameters also consider the discount rate is 10% [23] and 20
years lifetime [24]. Capex is determined using an empirical formula from the 200 kW Hydropower
Project in Kabupaten Berau North Kalimantan Province in 2014, and the maintenance cost is
determined from the empirical calculation of operational and maintenance cost of hydropower of
Lumbuk Ambacang dam [15]. The value of electricity production of the hydropower is Rp802, which
is below the selling price of PLN in Kalimantan of Rp1,571, while the standard price of IRENA
ranges from 0.03-0.05 USD/kWh [23]. Based on the NPV analysis, which has a positive value of

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6th International Energy Conference (Astechnova 2021) IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 927 (2021) 012016 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/927/1/012016

64,005 USD, the IRR value is positive, namely 11.86%, which is above the feasibility value of 11% as
the guideline of renewable energy project from Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale
Zusammenarbeit [24]. This project can return the capital within 8 years, meeting the requirement,
namely 7-10 years. The benefit-cost ratio is also positive. Therefore, this project is considered
economically feasible [24]. The economic values are listed in Table 6.

Table 6. Analysis of the economic value of the hydropower plant [15,23,25].

Parameter Value Feasibility
CAPEX 1,028,351 USD
OPEX 80,037 USD/year
LCOE 0.054USD Rp802 below PLN’s Rp1,571
NPV 64,005 USD Rp928,250,458 Positive
BCR 5 Positive
PBP 8 years 7-10 years
IRR Project 11.86% Above 11%

4. Conclusion
This hydropower plant has a potential flow of 2.45 m/s2. With a head of 15.85 meters, the total
potential electricity generated from hydropower reached 2,593,140 kWh/year. It is located not far from
the electricity network, has potential customers, and has a power potential of 290 kW. Based on the
calculation of rainfall intensity in the last 20 years, the continuity of water availability is considered
sufficient. The plant is located on vacant land and is far from protected forests and nature reserves.
Penajam Paser Utara has industries that are quite complex, like oil and gas industries, so that its
residents are considered competent to run the hydropower plant. All aspects support the technical
feasibility of the Sepaku - Semoi watershed hydropower plant. However, further research is needed on
the effect of the use of water for the hydropower plant on its availability for daily needs.
Economically, all aspects are within reasonable limits to be made into a project with a feed-in tariff
of 0.054 USD/kWh. Moreover, this project had a payback period of 8 years, an NPV of 64,005 USD,
and an IRR Project of 11.86%.
It would be an initial step for supporting Indonesia's new capital, which would optimize renewable
energy use. It supported the government in developing a sustainable hydropower plant to resolve the
energy crisis and environmental issues. The strategies should also include development by providing
proper incentives to promote hydropower utilization and encouraging joint ventures between private
institutions and Indonesian government agencies. These aim to implement the technical and
commercial aspects to get maximum benefits, which should include further research development of
hydropower plants.

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