Lec 13 Onwards

ME6226, Product Reliability
Dr. Piyush Shakya
Engineering Asset Management (EAM) Group
Department of Mechanical Engineering

Indian Institute of Technology Madras
pshakya@iitm.ac.in
https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/
February 23, 2024
Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 23, 2024 1 / 38

Contents
1 Reliability and Availability
2 Failure data analysis
3 Relation with previously discussed distribution
4 Fitting discrete and continuous distributions to failure data.

Reliability
• Preceived notions about the company/operator.
• Non quantiable only qualitative
• Reliability is a critical attribute of a product/item, expressed by a

probability that the product will perform its required function
under given operating condition for a stated time interval.
(as per ISO 2382-9).
• As Reliability is a probability, its value is between 0 and 1.
• If the reliability of the bulb is 0.9 then it means (90% of the bulb will
perform their intended function under giving operating condition for
the stated time.)

Aspects of Reliability
Therefore to dene reliability, the following terms should be clearly de-

ned.
1 Required function (adequate performance)
2 Operating conditions
3 Stated time (duration of adequate performance)

Aspects of Reliability
1 Required function:- (For a system with parallel subsystems, the

required function may be satised even if some subsystems are
failed.)
• Example A Jet plane carrying some VVIP may have 4 identical en-
gine. Jet plane will keep on ying as long as minimum 1 engine works.
2 Operating Conditions:-
• For ball bearing L10 = ( CP ) in millions of cycles, So if P(applied

3
equivalent load) is reduced L10 will increase and therefore R90 will
increase.
• Reliability may decrease with increase in temperature (laptops, ac-
celerometers).
3 Stated time:- Reliability is a function of time {denoted as R(t)}.

Availability
• Availability is the probability that a component or system is per-

forming its required function at a given point of time when used
under stated operating condition.
• Availability is the probability, its value lies between 0 to 1.
• Availability means satisfactory operation at time t.

Reliability Versus Availability
• Reliability means probability that system has operated satisfactory

over the time interval 0 to t.
• Availability means satisfactory operation at time t.
• Example 100 components start at t=0 and at t=500 hrs, and 95 are
working without failure. =⇒ R(t = 500) = 0.95
• A(t = 500) = 0.95, means the components may have failed in be-
tween and have been repaired and somehow 95 are working at t=500.
• Therefore, R(t) ⩽ A(t) (for repairable systems), As R(t) is more

stringent.
Z t
• A(t) = R(t)+ R(t − u)m(u) du where m(u) is the renewal den-
0
sity function and R(t − u) is the reliability of a component that was
repaired at time u and at time t has survived a time of t − u.
• R(t) = A(t) (for non-repairable system)

Failure Data Analysis
Failure Density
The ratio of number of failures occurred to the overall initial number

of components / systems during a unit interval of time.
n2
failure density for the interval between T1 and T2 : fd (t) =
N × ∆t

Failure Rate
The ratio of number of failures occurred to the total/average number of

components/systems existing during that time interval for the unit
interval of time. It is also known as instantaneous failure rate or hazard
rate.
failure rate for the interval between T1 and T2 :
n2
Total denition: Z(t) =
(N − n1 ) × ∆t
n2
Average denition: Z(t) = (N −n )+(N −n −n )
1 1 2
2 × ∆t
Reliability
The ratio of surviving components/systems to the initial population

start.
N − n1
R(t) at the start of interval ∆t (at Time =T1 ) =
N
fd (t)
Z(t) =
R(t)
Mean Time to failure (M T T F ): The average life of a component/system

Probability of Failure
The ratio of the failed components to the initial number of components

/ systems.
n1
Probability of Failure F (t) at the start of interval ∆t (at Time T1 ) =
N
n1 N − n1
F (t) + R(t)@t=T1 is + = 1
N N

• Suppose all the components fail during k∆t time.
• Therefore, N = n1 + n2 + . . . + nk
n1 n2 nj
• By denition, fd1 = ; fd2 = ; fdj =
N ∆t N ∆t N ∆t

n1 n2
• Total denition: Z1 = ; Z2 = ;
N ∆t (N − n1 )∆t
n1 n2
• Avg. denition: Z1 = N +(N −n1 ) ; Z2 = (N −n1 )+(N −n1 −n2 )
2 ∆t 2 ∆t
N − n1 N − n1 − n2
• R(∆t) = ; R(2∆t) =
N N
n1 n1 + n2 n1 + n2 + . . . . . . + nj
• F (∆t) = ; F (2∆t) = ; F (j∆t) =
N N N

n1 ∆t+n2 (2∆t)+......+nj (j∆t)+......+nk (k∆t)

• MTTF=
N
∆t Pk
• MTTF=
N j=1 jnj
nj nj
• fdj = =⇒ = fdj ∆t
N ∆t N
• MTTF= kj=1 fdj (j∆t)∆t

P

n1 n2 nj nk Pk nj
• N + N + ...... + N + ...... + N = 1 =⇒ j=1 N =1.
nj Pk
• = fdj ∆t Therefore, j=1 fdj ∆t=1.
N
• This basically means that the sum of the area under the failure
density curve is always 1.
n1 + n2 + . . . . . . + nj Pj
• F (j∆t) = ; F (j∆t) = i=1 fdi ∆t
N
• It means probability of failure ( CDF ) is same as area under the

failure density curve ( PDF ).
• R(j∆t) = 1 − F (j∆t)

• If the total population size is signicantly increased the histogram

of failure density (discussed earlier) will become a smooth curve.
Pk R∞
• j=1 fdj ∆t = 0 fd (ξ)dξ = 1
• fd (ξ) is probability density function and

R∞ ξ is the time to failure
(random variable).
0 fd (ξ)dξ = 1

Pj Rt
• F (j∆t) = i=1 fdi ∆t will turn into F (t) = 0 fd (ξ)dξ
Rt R∞
• R(t) = 1 − F (t) =⇒ R(t) = 1 − 0 fd (ξ)dξ = t fd (ξ)dξ
fd (t)
• Recall from earlier Z(t) =
R(t)
Pk R∞
• MTTF= j=1 fdj (j∆t)∆t → MTTF = 0 tfd (t)dt
• The following expressions also may be proven easily

− 0t Z(ξ)dξ
R
• R(t) = e
R∞ R∞
• MTTF = 0
tfd (t)dt = 0
R(t)dt

Failure Data Analysis (Question-1)
Failure data for 900 identical units are given in the attached table.
Life in 100 hours Number of failures

starting at 7500 hours
0-1 40
1-2 210
2-3 300
3-4 250
4-5 80
5-6 20
i Calculate the hazard rate (using the total number of components

denition) for all time intervals?
ii Calculate the failure density function for all time intervals?
iii Calculate the reliability for all time intervals?
iv Calculate the probability of failure for all time intervals?

Life in 100 hours Number of failures

starting at 7500 hours
0-1 40
1-2 210
2-3 300
3-4 250
4-5 80
5-6 20
i Test the hypothesis that the distribution follows the normal distri-
bution, assuming the level of signicance to be 5%? (Attempt this
part after completing the next section)

k out of n redundancy
A robot is used to pick radioactive material and keep it to another place

in a nuclear power plant (as humans can not work due to radiations).
The robot is sensitive to illumination quality of the workplace. 20 bulbs
of 100 watts are arranged for providing the light. The robot works only
if the light on the table is equal to or crosses 1800 watts. If after 100
hours, the chances of survival of a bulb is 90%, what is the probability
that the robot will continue to work at 100 hours?

Uniform distribution
A component has a failure distribution such that equal interval of time

have equal failure probabilities. If all the components fail between 900
and 1100 hours, what is MTTF, R(1050) and Z(1050)?

Exponential Distribution
A company wants to specify guarantee for its product, which has a con-
stant failure rate. The mean time to failure is 1000 days.
(a) What % of the components company has to replace if guarantee
period is 365 days. (b) If company does not want to replace more than
10% of the sold products, what should be the guarantee period?

Exponential Distribution
What is the relationship between Tmedian and MTTF for exponential

distribution?

Poisson's Distribution
A specially designed welding machine has a non repairable motor with a

constant failure rate of 0.05 failure per year. The company has purchased
2 spares. If the design life of the welding machine is 10 years. What is
the probability that 2 spares will be sucient (assume zero replacement
time)?

Weibull Distribution (3 parameters)
1. Derive MTTF, Tmedian , Mode, and σ for 3 parameter Weibull distri-

bution?

Weibull Distribution
A component's life is weibully distributed with shape factor 1/3 and scale
parameter of 16000 hours. Find the following: (a)R(10000) (b)MTTF
and Tmedian (c) standard deviation (d) Time to failure of 63.2% of the
components (e) 90% design life (f ) B1 life (g) Component will have a
higher wear out rate or infant mortality rate?

Normal Distribution
Quality data from a bearing (assuming that the bearing life is normally
distributed) show that 5% of the bearings fail before 5 years and 5% of
the bearings fail after 7 years. What is the reliability (a) at 5 years (b)
7 years (c) 4.5 years (d) 7.5 years.

Normal Distribution
As discussed in the previous Weibull distribution example R(t) =

1/3
t
−
e 16000 . We found that design life for 90% reliability is 18.71 hours.
If a 10 hours burn-in is allowed, what will be improvement in the 90%
design life?

Chi-Square Distribution
If X1 , X2 , X3 ,. . ., Xn are independent random variables and Xi follows

the normal distribution with mean µi and standard deviation σi for i=
1, 2, 3, . . . , n, then the random variable
Pn Xi −µi 2
χ2 (n) = i=1 σi ) has a Chi-Square distribution, where n is the
degree of freedom.

Pearson's Chi-Square Theorem
n
P (Ok −Ek )2
Test Statistic converges to Chi-Square distribution with (n−
Ek
k=1
1) degrees of freedom, where n is the total no. of classes/categories, Ok is
the observed frequency value in the data acquired from the eld and Ek is
the expected frequency value corresponding to an expected distribution
for k th category.
n
(Ok −Ek )2
→ χ2 (n − 1)
P
Ek
k=1
This is true when Ek → ∞, therefore, at least Ek ≥ 5 in the application

of theorem.
• Pearson's Chi-Square theorem may be used to check whether data

acquired from the eld comes form a particular discrete or continu-
ous distribution Or for checking correlation.
Steps for Chi-Square Goodness of Fit Test
1 Dene the null & alternate hypothesis

H0 : Data comes from an expected distribution.
H1 : Data doen't come from the expected distribution.
n
2
P (Ok −Ek )2
Compute Test Statistic:
Ek
k=1
Note that H0 and H1 may be alternatively written.
H0 : Ok = Ek
H1 : Ok ̸= Ek
3 If the data indeed belongs to the expected distribution Ok will be
close Ek and the Chi-Square statistic will be small otherwise it will
be larger (A larger value is an extreme value).
4 If n is total no. of classes/categories then degree of freedom (dof )
is n − 1.
5 In case, some information about the expected distribution is not
mentioned explicitly and has to be tted (values determined) from
the data given, then dof = (n − 1)− no. of tted parameters.

Steps for Chi-Square Goodness of Fit Test
6 Degree of freedom of a statistic is the no. of values in the calculation

of a statistic that are free to vary.
7 Compute Pvalue = P [χ2 (dof ) ≥ T est Statistic]; Probability of get-

ting the recorded outcome or extremer outcome given that the null
hypothesis is true.
8 If Pvalue < α; A rare event (low probability), however the data

recorded suggests otherwise, therefore, the null hypothesis should
not be true. Therefore, the null hypothesis is rejected (Data maynot
have come from the expected distribution).
9 If Pvalue > α; Higher probability of the recorded event suggesting

data may have come from the expected distribution.
10 For goodness of t test, all expected frequency should be at least 5.

Goodness of Fit Test (Example)
Question-2
Acme toy company print baseball cards. The company claims that 30%
of the cards are rookies, 60% veterans, and 10% are all-stars. Suppose a
random sample of 100 cards has 50 rookies, 45 veterans and 5 all-stars.
Is this consistent with the claim of Acme? Use a 0.05 level of signicance.

Solution (Question-2)

Question-3
A connecting rod manufacturing company certies the quality of a lot

produced in a week through inspection of rigrous testing of 5 randomly
chosen connecting rods. The following table lists the number of connect-
ing rods thrown away every week (for a year).
Number of defective Number of weeks

connecting rods
0 10
1 21
2 14
3 6
4 1
5 0
i Verify whether the number of defective items has a binomial distri-

bution (given that the probability of connecting rod being defective
is 0.25; take α=0.05)?
Question-4
A random sample of bearings has the following distribution of lives.

The table is called frequency table.
Life in years Frequency

0-1 12
1-2 94
2-3 170
3-4 188
4-5 28
5-6 8
i Verify whether the distribution of bearing life follow a normal dis-

tribution?

Question-5
The quality control department performs a study of 300 failed eld com-
ponents. The study records Types of failures and grease supplier. Use
the data to test the hypothesis that the grease supplier and the types of
failure are independent.

Thank You
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ME6226, Product Reliability

Dr. Piyush Shakya

Engineering Asset Management (EAM) Group

Department of Mechanical Engineering

February 23, 2024

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 23, 2024 1 / 38

1 Reliability and Availability

2 Failure data analysis

3 Relation with previously discussed distribution

4 Fitting discrete and continuous distributions to failure data.

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 23, 2024 2 / 38

• Preceived notions about the company/operator.

• Non quantiable only qualitative

• Reliability is a critical attribute of a product/item, expressed by a

• As Reliability is a probability, its value is between 0 and 1.

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 23, 2024 3 / 38

Therefore to dene reliability, the following terms should be clearly de-

1 Required function (adequate performance)

3 Stated time (duration of adequate performance)

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 23, 2024 4 / 38

1 Required function:- (For a system with parallel subsystems, the

• For ball bearing L10 = ( CP ) in millions of cycles, So if P(applied

3 Stated time:- Reliability is a function of time {denoted as R(t)}.

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 23, 2024 5 / 38

• Availability is the probability that a component or system is per-

• Availability is the probability, its value lies between 0 to 1.

• Availability means satisfactory operation at time t.

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 23, 2024 6 / 38

• Reliability means probability that system has operated satisfactory

• Therefore, R(t) ⩽ A(t) (for repairable systems), As R(t) is more

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 23, 2024 7 / 38

The ratio of number of failures occurred to the overall initial number

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 23, 2024 8 / 38

The ratio of number of failures occurred to the total/average number of

The ratio of surviving components/systems to the initial population

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 23, 2024 10 / 38

The ratio of the failed components to the initial number of components

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 23, 2024 11 / 38

• Suppose all the components fail during k∆t time.

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 23, 2024 12 / 38

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 23, 2024 13 / 38

n1 ∆t+n2 (2∆t)+......+nj (j∆t)+......+nk (k∆t)

• MTTF= kj=1 fdj (j∆t)∆t

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 23, 2024 14 / 38

• It means probability of failure ( CDF ) is same as area under the

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 23, 2024 15 / 38

• If the total population size is signicantly increased the histogram

• fd (ξ) is probability density function and

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 23, 2024 16 / 38

• The following expressions also may be proven easily

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 23, 2024 17 / 38

Life in 100 hours Number of failures

i Calculate the hazard rate (using the total number of components

ii Calculate the failure density function for all time intervals?

iii Calculate the reliability for all time intervals?

iv Calculate the probability of failure for all time intervals?

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 23, 2024 18 / 38

Life in 100 hours Number of failures

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 23, 2024 19 / 38

A robot is used to pick radioactive material and keep it to another place

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 23, 2024 20 / 38

A component has a failure distribution such that equal interval of time

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 23, 2024 21 / 38

Dr. Piyush Shakya (EAM, IITM) https://home.iitm.ac.in/pshakya/ February 23, 2024 22 / 38

• Non quantiable only qualitative

Therefore to dene reliability, the following terms should be clearly de-

• If the total population size is signicantly increased the histogram

1 Dene the null & alternate hypothesis

10 For goodness of t test, all expected frequency should be at least 5.

A connecting rod manufacturing company certies the quality of a lot