2023

ACADEMY
AWARDS
LANDSCAPE ANALYSIS
 INTRODUCTION

Who will take home Oscars depends mainly on two factors:

stats (based on major precursor awards presented
throughout award season, with the Golden Globes, the
British Film Academy Awards, and the four major guilds
being particularly prominent) and momentum, which is
usually driven by each nominee’s narrative.

Based on stats alone, Everything Everywhere All At Once is

a near-lock to win the top Oscar. The film may have lost the
Golden Globe and the BAFTA, but they are seen as less
indicative precursors in this particular category. Its
dominance with guilds, including victories from the DGA,
PGA, WGA, and an unprecedented four wins from the
Screen Actors Guild, speaks of wide industry support.

2023 Academy Awards 2

 INTRODUCTION
(2/2)
While the top race appears to be settled, the acting
categories are unusually competitive. This year marks the
first year since 1997 when the Screen Actors Guild (SAG)
and the British Film Academy, two awards voted by
representatives of the industry, failed to agree on a single
acting winner.

In the Best Actor category, only two nominees, Austin

Butler and Brendan Fraser, have the stats to support a
victory on Oscar night. They split the major awards evenly,
with Butler taking home the Golden Globe and the BAFTA
and Fraser prevailing with the Screen Actors Guild and
Critics’ Choice voters. As the Best Actor winner usually
comes from a Best Picture nominated-film, Butler appears
to have a slight edge, but Fraser comes with a particularly
sympathetic narrative: he is the big Hollywood comeback
story of 2023.

In the Best Actress category, only two nominees, Cate

Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh, have a stats-proof path to a
victory on Oscar night. The race is really close to call, but
Michelle Yeoh’s narrative is especially tempting as she may
become the first Asian actress to win the Best Actress
Academy Award (and only the second woman of color,
after Halle Berry in 2002) to win the lead actress Oscar.

The lack of strong stats-based indications drove us to look

at the bigger picture and see which narratives could sway
voters.

2023 Academy Awards 3

 KEY TAKEAWAYS

Volumes spiked on Oscar nominations morning, but other awards ceremonies during the
monitored period also generated peaks, with attention focused on the Academy Award
nominees who competed in the same categories across multiple contests.

The Best Picture category, with its ten nominees, accounted for 45% of the total mentions. Best
Actress came in second with 30%, partially owing to a series of controversies around nominee
Andrea Riseborough and the omission of Viola Davis and Danielle Deadwyler, who were
previously seen as frontrunners.

The predominant sentiment of the mentions concerning each category was neutral, with News —
the main media source — providing mostly balanced coverage of the awards season. At 20-23%,
positivity exceeded negativity, thanks to praise and recognition for the nominees as well as films
and actors who did not make the cut.

2023 Academy Awards 4

 MENTIONS
TIMELINE

Mentions of all three major categories peaked on 24 January — Oscar nominations morning — while
lower spikes were registered around other ceremonies this awards season. News outlets and social
media users followed the success of Oscar nominees at other events and tried to predict whether the 12
March ceremony would have the same winners.

After initial spikes on 24 January, two of the hot topics — Andrea Riseborough’s Best Actress nod and
Viola Davis’ snub — saw secondary peaks in early February. At the beginning of the month, the Academy
informed the public of the conclusions of its investigation into Riseborough’s campaign and confirmed
her nomination. Five days later, Davis won a Grammy to reach EGOT status, which many observers
deemed as compensation for her missing out on an Oscar nomination.

95th Academy Awards 9AMPAS announces it will 65th Grammy Awards

nominees revealed. not rescind Andrea
Riseborough’s Oscar
nomination for best
actress following a review
of her campaign.
ceremony. Viola Davis
achieves EGOT status
after Academy snub.
29th Screen Actors
Guild Awards.

80th Golden Globe 76th British Academy

Awards ceremony. Film Awards ceremony.

Best Picture Best Actor Best Actress

2023 Academy Awards 5

BEST PICTURE
Everything Everywhere All at Once, which was the
SOV leader within its category, was seen by many as
the favorite for the statuette, partially thanks to its
multiple nominations and awards this season. 45%
Moreover, the movie was praised as a huge hit which
could bring the Oscars closer to regular people amid 30%
plummeting ratings for award shows and the Oscars
in particular.

Avatar: The Way of Water became the first highest-

SHARE
grossing film of the year to be nominated for Best
Picture in 12 years. Observers thought this could be a OF
VOICE
trend, as the second top movie of 2022, Top Gun:
Maverick, was also among the nominees.

Meanwhile, All Quiet on the Western Front made

history as the first German-language movie to receive
a nomination in the category.

25%

BEST ACTOR
Austin Butler received a lot of attention
throughout the period, in part due to the
perceived use of his “Elvis voice” during
awards season and for revealing that he slept
through the Oscar nominations. He came
into the media focus once again following
the passing of Lisa Marie Presley, as some
Oscar fans speculated that the tragic news
could sway the vote towards the actor who
portrayed the King of Rock and Roll in the
2022 biopic.
Brendan Fraser, who was dubbed
“comeback king,” was often in the spotlight
not only for his performance in The Whale,
but also thanks to coverage of his whole
career and the reasons why
Hollywood in the first place.
BEST ACTRESS
One of the most discussed topics in the lead actress
category was the surprising nomination of Andrea
Riseborough, following a last-minute campaign,
which turned out to be very controversial and led to
a formal review over possible procedure violations.
According to some opinions, her Oscar nod was a
pleasant surprise and an incredible moment for
the indie cinema.
Others claimed that her white friends helped her
steal a spot on the nominees list from actors of color
he left such as Viola Davis or Danielle Deadwyler. The latter
commented on her snub as an example of
misogyny, sparkling a further discussion on.

2023 Academy Awards 6

 BEST
PICTURE

Positivity was partially driven by support for a “well-

deserved” nomination for Top Gun: Maverick, which was
12%
praised by Steven Spielberg for possibly saving the entire
theatrical industry.

Top Gun:Maverick was one of several box office hits to

feature in this year’s line-up, including Avatar: The Way of
23%
Water, which became the first highest-grossing film of
the year to receive a Best Picture nomination since
Avatar in 2010.
65%

A significant portion of the negative sentiment was due

to criticism of the fact that for yet another year, horror
Neutral
movies were overlooked when it came to nominations,
Positive
with Nope given as an example of a deserving
contender. Meanwhile, fans of RRR were disappointed Negative

that the Indian selection committee did not submit the

movie for a nomination in the category.

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 BEST
ACTOR

Positivity was mostly due to praise for the performances

of the five first-time nominees and other actors who
12.9%
were seen as deserving of a nomination in the category,
including Tom Cruise, Ram Charan, and NTR Jr.
Coverage of Austin Butler’ case relied on the story
surrounding his Elvis voice, as the actor was apparently
unable to go back to his authentic voice after shooting 19.8%

ended. Butler’s intense acting process and the movie’s

toll on his personal life were regular topics of interest.

Negativity was partially owed to criticism of fatphobic 67.3%

messages conveyed by The Whale, with some social

media users saying Brendan Fraser’s comeback made
Neutral
him a frontrunner for the award, but the movie itself
Positive
could be harmful. Other people called out the lack of
diversity among the nominees, reviving the use of the Negative

#OscarsSoWhite hashtag on Twitter.

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 BEST
ACTRESS

Negativity was driven by social media users criticizing

the omission of Viola Davis and Danielle Deadwyler from
11.7%
the nominations in the category. People on Twitter used
the #OscarsSoWhite hashtag to denounce possible
racism in the decision.

Positive coverage, which almost doubled negative 22.3%

content, included posts celebrating Michelle Yeoh, who
made history as the first Asian-identifying actress to be
nominated in the category. Positivity peaked in early
66%
February after Davis won a Grammy award and became
the 18th person to reach EGOT status. Some netizens
saw the achievement as her comeback after this year’s
Neutral
Oscars snub.
Positive

Cate Blanchett’s Oscar case also drove positivity, as she Negative

relied on her critical acclaim and potentially history-

making third Oscar, which would put her in the
company of greats like Meryl Streep and Jack Nicholson
who have reached three competitive acting wins.

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 MEDIA
BREAKDOWN

News outlets, which were the main source of mentions with an SOV of just under 55%, covered Academy
Award predictions, nominations, and controversies, as well as other award shows in the context of the
Oscars.

Users on Twitter, which came in second with more than a third of all entries, discussed their favorites in
each category and often expressed their approval or disappointment with each nomination.

The NYT and Fox News were the top authors by followers owing to their extensive coverage of the
nominees, while Netflix came in third somewhat as a result of the nomination of All Quiet on the Western
Front.

THE NEW YORK TIMES FOX NEWS NETFLIX

@NYTIMES @FOXNEWS @NETFLIX

The daily posted news and analyses
concerning this year’s nominations, as
well as an interactive ballot for
predictions about the Best Picture
winner.
The television channel shared reactions
to the nominations from both actors
who made the lists and some who were
snubbed.
The streaming company, which
distributes All Quiet on the Western
Front and Blonde, tweeted about the
nominations of the war drama and Ana
de Armas.

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0
News Outlets Twitter Netflix NYTimes Fox News Others

2023 Academy Awards 10

APPENDIX

Period: 01 January 2023 – 28 February

2023

Market: United States

Sources: News, Twitter, Tumblr, Blogs,

Forums, Reviews

Platform: Brandwatch

2023 Academy Awards 11

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2023 Academy Awards 12