Exercise 1.

Laplace, Wald or pessimistic, optimistic, Hurwicz and Savage criteria (Profit

Matrix)

Table 1. Optimal solution for choosing a production

process
Group number
moderate high (two digits
Alternatives low demand
demand demand only)

processes A 102300 352300 902300 23

processes B 152300 402300 702300
Get into the campus, on the left side of the course
you will be able to consult the number of your
group in the participants section, if you have any
processes C 252300 402300 602300 doubts, check with your tutor.
In case of typing the group number in the wrong
way, it will generate the wrong random data.
processes D 252300 402300 552300
Criterio de Laplace: está basado en el principio de razón insuficiente.

Table 1. Optimal solution for choosing a production process

moderate
Alternatives low demand high demand
demand
processes A 102300 352300 902300
processes B 152300 402300 702300
processes C 252300 402300 602300
processes D 252300 402300 552300
MÁXIMO VALOR

Criterio Wald o pesimistas: es un criterio conservador. Razona sobre la peor situación que se le pueda presenta

Table 1. Optimal solution for choosing a production process

moderate
Alternatives low demand high demand
demand
processes A 102300 352300 902300
processes B 152300 402300 702300
processes C 252300 402300 602300
processes D 252300 402300 552300
MÁXIMO VALOR

Criterio optimista: Identifica cada alternativa con el mejor resultado posible, eligiendo lo mejor de lo mejor.

Table 1. Optimal solution for choosing a production process

moderate
Alternatives low demand high demand
demand
processes A 102300 352300 902300
processes B 152300 402300 702300
processes C 252300 402300 602300
processes D 252300 402300 552300
MÁXIMO VALOR

Criterio de Hurwicz: Está diseñado para representar diferentes actitudes de decisión que van desde la más opti

Table 1. Optimal solution for choosing a production process

moderate
Alternatives low demand high demand
demand
processes A 102300 352300 902300
processes B 152300 402300 702300
processes C 252300 402300 602300
processes D 252300 402300 552300
Criterio Savage: Tiene un grado de conservadurismo del criterio minimax.

Table 1. Optimal solution for choosing a production process

moderate
Alternatives low demand high demand
demand
processes A 102300 352300 902300
processes B 152300 402300 702300
processes C 252300 402300 602300
processes D 252300 402300 552300
VALOR
MÁXIMO 252300 402300 902300

Resto cada cifra por el máximo valor de cada columna

Table 1. Optimal solution for choosing a production process

moderate
Alternatives low demand high demand
demand
processes A 150000 50000 0
processes B 100000 0 200000
processes C 0 0 300000
processes D 0 0 350000
ESCOJO EL MÍNIMO VALOR

Analysis:

Four out of the five criteria studied suggest that process A is the best option for the manufacturer to expand
capacity. This strong consensus across multiple criteria indicates that process A is reliable, efficient, and cost-e
it the preferred choice for the manufacturer's objectives.
 VALOR
ESPERADO
452300 According to Laplace's criteria, which prioritize probabilistic reasoning and risk assessment, the manufacturer is advised to
reliability, efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and the minimization of potential risks and uncertainties. By selecting process A
418966.66666667 competitiveness in its operations.
418966.66666667
402300
452300

re la peor situación que se le pueda presentar al decisor una vez elegida.

VALOR
ESPERADO

102300
152300
252300
252300 The Wald criterion suggests choosing process D as it offers the safest option among potential outco
potential losses for the manufacturer.
252300

o posible, eligiendo lo mejor de lo mejor.

VALOR
ESPERADO

902300
According to the optimistic criterion, the manufacturer should choose t
702300
602300
552300
902300

udes de decisión que van desde la más optimista hasta la más pesimista.
ALFA= OPTIMISTA BETA=PESIMISTA
COEFICIENT
(MÁXIMO
COEFICIENTE MÍNIMO VALOR E PESIMISTA
VALOR)
OPTIMISTA ALFA BETA
902300 102300
702300 152300
0.7 0.3
602300 252300
552300 252300
ESCOJO EL MÁXIMO VALOR
 VALOR
ESPERADO
(MÁXIMO)
150000 According to the Savage criterion, which prioritizes risk mitigation, the
manufacturer should implement process option A. This decision is based on
200000 process A's perceived ability to minimize potential losses and uncertainties,
ensuring greater stability and security in production operations.
300000
350000
150000

best option for the manufacturer to expand its production

at process A is reliable, efficient, and cost-effective, making
anufacturer's objectives.
ment, the manufacturer is advised to implement process A. This decision is based on factors such as
uncertainties. By selecting process A, the manufacturer aims to achieve optimal performance and
veness in its operations.

t option among potential outcomes, prioritizing risk avoidance and minimizing

es for the manufacturer.

manufacturer should choose the A process option.

VALOR ESPERADO
According to Hurwicz's
662300 Criterion, the manufacturer
537300 should choose process option A.
497300
462300
662300