Exercise 1.

Laplace, Wald or pessimistic, optimistic, Hurwicz and Savage criteria (Profit

Matrix)

Table 1. Optimal solution for choosing a production

process
Group number
moderate high (two digits
Alternatives low demand
demand demand only)

processes A 105300 355300 905300 53

processes B 155300 405300 705300
Get into the campus, on the left side of the course
you will be able to consult the number of your
group in the participants section, if you have any
processes C 255300 405300 605300 doubts, check with your tutor.
In case of typing the group number in the wrong
way, it will generate the wrong random data.
processes D 255300 405300 555300
 Table 1. Optimal solution for choosing a
production process

Alternative moderate
low demand high demand
s demand

processes
111600 361600 911600
A
processes
161600 411600 711600
B
Get into the campus, on the left sid
of the course you will be able t
consult the number of your group
processes C 261600 411600 611600 the participants section, if you hav
any doubts, check with your tutor.
In case of typing the group numbe
in the wrong way, it will generat
processes the wrong random data.
261600 411600 561600
D
 Group
number
(two digits
only)

53

Get into the campus, on the left side

of the course you will be able to
consult the number of your group in
the participants section, if you have
any doubts, check with your tutor.
In case of typing the group number
in the wrong way, it will generate
the wrong random data.
Criterio de Laplace Está basado en el principio de razón insuficiente

Evento
1l3 1l3 1l3
Alternatives Low demand Moderate demand High demand Valor esperado
Processes A 105300 355300 905300 455300
Processes B 155300 405300 705300 421966.66666667
Processes C 255300 405300 605300 421966.66666667
Processes D 255300 405300 555300 405300
Escojo el MAXIMO valor 455300

Criterio wald o pesimista Es un criterio conservador. Es un cristerio pesimista ya que razona sobre la peor situación que se

Evento
1l3 1l3 1l3 Valor esperado
Alternatives Low demand Moderate demand High demand minimo
Processes A 105300 355300 905300 105300
Processes B 155300 405300 705300 155300
Processes C 255300 405300 605300 255300
Processes D 255300 405300 555300 255300
Escojo el MAXIMO valor 255300

Criterio Optimista El decisor que sigue este criterio identifica cada alternativa con el mejor resultado posible eligien

Evento
1l3 1l3 1l3 Valor esperado
Alternatives Low demand Moderate demand High demand maximo
Processes A 105300 355300 905300 905300
Processes B 155300 405300 705300 705300
Processes C 255300 405300 605300 605300
Processes D 255300 405300 555300 555300
Escojo el MAXIMO valor 905300

Criterio de Hurwicz Este criterio representa un abanico de actitudes, desde la mas pesimista a la mas optimista.

ALFA = OPTIMISTA
Evento
MAXIMO VALOR
Alternatives
 MAXIMO VALOR
Alternatives Low demand Moderate demand High demand
Processes A 105300 355300 905300 905300
Processes B 155300 405300 705300 705300
Processes C 255300 405300 605300 605300
Processes D 255300 405300 555300 555300

Criterio de Savage Transforma la matriz de resultados en una matriz de errores. De esta forma el decisor puede eva
para ello hay que determinar el mejor

Evento

Alternatives Low demand Moderate demand High demand

Processes A 105300 355300 905300
Processes B 155300 405300 705300
Processes C 255300 405300 605300
Processes D 255300 405300 555300
Maximo valor 255300 405300 905300

Resto cada cifra por el máximo valor que corresponda en cada columna

Evento

Valor esperado
Alternatives Low demand Moderate demand High demand maximo
Processes A 150000 50000 0 150000
Processes B 100000 0 200000 200000
Processes C 0 0 300000 300000
Processes D 0 0 350000 350000
Escojo el minimo valor 150000
 For this Laplace criterion the manufacturer should choose process A because
it has the maximum value and is a gain matrix.

a sobre la peor situación que se le puede presentar al decisor una vez elegida

According to this criterion, the best alternative for the manufacturer are
processes C and D because they are the best levels of demand, as for the
other processes.

mejor resultado posible eligiendo por la alternativa que corresponda

According to the Optimistic criterion the manufacturer should

choose process A as it is the best of the best of all processes.

simista a la mas optimista.

ALFA = OPTIMISTA BETA = PESIMISTA

COEFICIENTE COEFICIENTE
OPTIMISTA PESIMISTA VALOR According to the Hurwicz criterion, the manufacturer
ALFA MINIMO VALOR BETA ESPERADO should choose process A which is optimistic with the
maximum value of
 COEFICIENTE COEFICIENTE
OPTIMISTA PESIMISTA VALOR According to the Hurwicz criterion, the manufacturer
ALFA MINIMO VALOR BETA ESPERADO should choose process A which is optimistic with the
105300 665300 maximum value of
155300 540300
0.7 0.3
255300 500300
255300 465300
Escojo el maximo valor 665300

sta forma el decisor puede evaluar fácilmente el coste oportunidad en el que incurre por tomar una decisión equivocada

According to Savage's criteria, the manufacturer should choose

process A, which is the minimum value.
on, the manufacturer
is optimistic with the
e of
on, the manufacturer
is optimistic with the
e of

uivocada