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SR.NO CONTENT PAGE NO

1 CHAPTER NO 1
(THEORETICAL BACKGROUND)
 Introduction
 KEY COMPONENTS OF TREND
ANALYSIS
 WHAT IS MOVING AVERAGE?

2 CHAPTER NO 2
(RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS)
 COMPANIES PROFILE
 General Motors
 Harley-Davidson
 CONCLUSION
 CALCULATION OF MOVING
AVERAGES
 REFERENCE

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INTRODUCTION
Trend analysis in statistics is a method used to identify and analyze patterns or tendencies in
data over time. It involves examining historical data to detect and understand any consistent
upward, downward, or stable patterns, known as trends, in the dataset. Trend analysis helps
in making predictions, identifying potential opportunities or threats, and making informed
decisions in various fields such as finance, economics, marketing, and environmental
science. Trend analysis is the widespread practice of collecting information and attempting
to spot a pattern. In some fields of study, the term has more formally defined meanings.
Although trend analysis is often used to predict future events, it could be used to estimate
uncertain events in the past, such as how many ancient kings probably ruled between two
dates, based on data such as the average years which other known kings reigned.
In statistics, trend analysis often refers to techniques for extracting an underlying pattern of
behavior in a time series which would otherwise be partly or nearly completely hidden
by noise. If the trend can be assumed to be linear, trend analysis can be undertaken within a
formal regression analysis, as described in Trend estimation. If the trends have other shapes
than linear, trend testing can be done by non-parametric methods, e.g. Mann-Kendall test,
which is a version of Kendall rank correlation coefficient. Smoothing can also be used for
testing and visualization of nonlinear trends.

Here's an introduction to the key aspects of trend analysis:

1. *Data Collection*: Trend analysis begins with collecting historical data relevant to the
phenomenon or variable of interest. This data is typically collected at regular intervals over
time, such as daily, monthly, quarterly, or yearly.
2. *Data Visualization*: Once the data is collected, it is often visualized using graphs or
charts, such as line graphs or time series plots. Visual representation of the data makes it
easier to observe any underlying trends or patterns.
3. *Trend Identification*: The next step is to identify any apparent trends or patterns in the
data. Trends can be categorized as:
- *Upward Trend*: A consistent increase in the values of the variable over time.
- *Downward Trend*: A consistent decrease in the values of the variable over time.
- *Horizontal or Stable Trend*: No significant change in the values of the variable over
time.
4. *Statistical Techniques*: Various statistical techniques can be used to analyze trends in
data. These include:
- *Moving Averages*: Calculating moving averages helps smooth out fluctuations in the
data and highlight underlying trends.

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- *Regression Analysis*: Regression models can be used to quantify the relationship

between the variable of interest and time, allowing for the prediction of future values.
- *Exponential Smoothing*: Exponential smoothing methods assign exponentially
decreasing weights to older data points, giving more importance to recent observations.
- *Time Series Analysis*: Advanced time series analysis techniques, such as ARIMA
(AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) modeling, are used to model and forecast time-
dependent data.
5. *Interpretation and Decision Making*: Once trends are identified and analyzed, the
results are interpreted to understand the implications for decision making. For example, if an
upward trend is observed in sales data, it may indicate increasing demand for a product,
leading to decisions about production planning or marketing strategies.
6. *Limitations*: It's essential to recognize the limitations of trend analysis, such as the
assumption that past trends will continue into the future. External factors or unforeseen
events can disrupt or reverse existing trends, making predictions less reliable.
In summary, trend analysis in statistics is a valuable tool for understanding and forecasting
patterns in data over time, enabling informed decision making and strategic planning
in various fields.
In trend analysis, several methods are commonly used to identify and analyze trends in
statistical data. Here are some of the key methods:
1. *Moving Averages*: Moving averages are widely used in trend analysis to smooth out
fluctuations in data and highlight underlying trends. This method involves calculating the
average of a specified number of consecutive data points, known as the moving average
window. Common types of moving averages include the simple moving average (SMA),
weighted moving average (WMA), and exponential moving average (EMA).
2. *Linear Regression*: Linear regression analysis is used to quantify the relationship
between a variable of interest and time. It involves fitting a straight line to the data points,
allowing for the estimation of the slope (trend) and intercept (baseline level) of the trend
line. Linear regression can be used to identify upward, downward, or stable trends in the
data and make predictions about future values.
3. *Seasonal Decomposition*: Seasonal decomposition techniques, such as seasonal
decomposition of time series (STL) or seasonal-trend decomposition using Loess (STL), are
used to decompose time series data into its underlying components: trend, seasonal, and
residual. This method helps isolate the trend component from seasonal variations and
random fluctuations in the data, making it easier to analyze long-term trends.
4. *Time Series Analysis*: Time series analysis involves modeling and forecasting time-
dependent data using statistical techniques such as autoregressive integrated moving
average (ARIMA) modeling, exponential smoothing methods (e.g., Holt-Winters method),
and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) modeling. These methods

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account for autocorrelation, seasonality, and trend components in the data to make accurate
predictions about future values.
5. *Nonlinear Regression*: In cases where the relationship between the variable of interest
and time is nonlinear, nonlinear regression techniques, such as polynomial regression or
exponential growth/decay models, can be used to capture the underlying trend. These
methods allow for more flexible modeling of complex trend patterns in the data.
6. *Time Series Clustering*: Time series clustering techniques, such as k-means clustering or
hierarchical clustering, are used to group similar time series data based on their trend and
seasonal patterns. This method can help identify distinct trends or patterns within a dataset
and classify data into meaningful clusters for further analysis.
These are some of the commonly used methods in trend analysis in statistics, each with its
advantages and limitations. The choice of method depends on the nature of the data, the
presence of seasonality or autocorrelation, and the specific objectives of the analysis.

What is moving average ?

A moving average is a statistical calculation used to analyze data points by creating a series
of averages of different subsets of the full data set. It smooths out fluctuations in data to
show trends over time. The "moving" part refers to the fact that the average is continually
recalculated as new data becomes available, typically by dropping the oldest data point and
including the most recent one. It's commonly used in finance, economics, and signal
processing to identify trends and forecast future values.
Certainly! Moving averages come in different forms, such as simple moving averages (SMA),
exponential moving averages (EMA), weighted moving averages (WMA), etc. Here's a bit
more detail on some common types:
1. Simple Moving Average (SMA): This is the most straightforward form of a moving
average, calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values over a specified
time period. Each data point in the series is given equal weight.
2. Exponential Moving Average (EMA): Unlike the SMA, the EMA gives more weight to
recent data points while still considering older data. It applies a greater weight to the most
recent observations, making it more responsive to recent price changes.
3. Weighted Moving Average (WMA): Similar to the EMA, the WMA assigns different
weights to each data point within the time period. However, instead of exponentially
decreasing weights, WMAs assign linearly decreasing weights.
Moving averages are used in various fields for different purposes, including:
- *Technical Analysis in Finance*: Traders and analysts use moving averages to identify
trends, support and resistance levels, and potential entry or exit points in the market.
- *Forecasting*: Moving averages can be used to forecast future values by extrapolating
trends observed in historical data.

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- *Smoothing Data*: Moving averages help smooth out noise and fluctuations in data,
making underlying patterns more visible.
- *Signal Processing*: Moving averages are used to filter out noise from signals, making it
easier to analyze and interpret data.
Overall, moving averages provide valuable insights into the behavior of data over time and
are widely used in quantitative analysis and decision-making.

COMPANY PROFILE
General motors:

General Motors Company (GM) is an American multinational automotive manufacturing

company headquartered in Detroit, Michigan, United States. The company is most known for
owning and manufacturing four automobile brands, Chevrolet, GMC, Cadillac and Buick. By
sales, it was the largest automaker in the United States in 2022, and was the largest in the
world for 77 years before losing the top spot to Toyota in 2008.General Motors operates
manufacturing plants in eight countries. In addition to its four core brands, GM also holds
interests in Chinese brands Baojun and Wuling via SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile.[2] GM
further owns the BrightDrop delivery vehicle manufacturer,[7] a namesake defense vehicles
division which produces military vehicles for the United States government and military,[8]
the vehicle safety, security, and information services provider OnStar,[9] the auto parts
company ACDelco, a namesake financial lending service, and majority ownership in the self-
driving cars enterprise Cruise LLC.

The company originated as a holding company for Buick established on September 16, 1908,
by William C. Durant, the largest seller of horse-drawn vehicles at the time. The first half of
the 20th century saw the company grow into an automotive behemoth through acquisitions;
going into the second half, the company pursued innovation and new offerings to consumers
as well as collaborations with NASA to develop the earliest electric vehicles.[10][11] The
current entity was established in 2009 after the General Motors Chapter 11 reorganization.

As of 2024, General Motors ranks 25th by total revenue out of all American companies on the
Fortune 500 and 50th on the Fortune Global 500.[13][14] In 2023, the company was ranked
70th in the Forbes Global 2000.[15] In 2021, GM announced its intent to end production of
vehicles using internal combustion engines by 2035, as part of its plan to achieve carbon
neutrality by 2040.

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1.Founded -September 16, 1908; 115 years ago[1] (original company)

July 10, 2009 (present company)
2.Chair & CEO- Mary Barra
3.President- Mark Reuss
4.Founders- William C. Durant ,Charles Stewart Mott
5.Headquarters- Renaissance Center, Detroit, Michigan, United States
6.Number of locations- 396 facilities on six continents
7.Area served- Worldwide
8.Key people- Pierre S. du Pont
Chairman of the Board (1915-1929)
Charles Kettering
Director of Research (1920-1947)
Alfred P. Sloan
CEO (1923-1946)
9.Products- Automobiles
Performance vehicles
Luxury vehicles
Commercial vehicles
Military vehicles
Automobile part

10.Revenue- Increase US$171.8 billion (2023)[2]

11.Operating income- Decrease US$9.298 billion (2023)[2]
12.Net income- Decrease US$9.840 billion (2023)[2]
13.Total assets-Increase US$273.1 billion (2023)[2]
14.Total equity-Decrease US$68.19 billion (2023)[2]
15.Number of employees-163,000 (2023)

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Business activities of General motors:

1. **Electric Vehicles (EVs)**: GM has been ramping up its efforts in the electric vehicle
market, with plans to introduce numerous electric models across its brands. Their
flagship electric vehicle, the Chevrolet Bolt EV, has been on the market for several
years, and they have announced plans for further electric vehicle development,
including the GMC Hummer EV and Cadillac Lyriq.

2. **Autonomous Vehicles (AVs)**: General Motors has been investing in autonomous

vehicle technology through its subsidiary Cruise Automation. Cruise has been
developing self-driving technology and has conducted extensive testing in cities like
San Francisco. GM aims to deploy autonomous ride-hailing services using Cruise’s
technology.
3. **Global Expansion**: GM operates in various global markets, with manufacturing
facilities and sales operations in countries around the world. They continue to
expand their presence in emerging markets while maintaining their strong position in
established markets like the United States and China.
4. **Sustainability Initiatives**: Like many automotive companies, GM has been
focusing on sustainability and reducing its environmental footprint. This includes
efforts to increase the efficiency of their vehicles, reduce emissions, and invest in
renewable energy sources for their operations.
5. **Innovation and Technology**: GM has been actively investing in research and
development to stay competitive in an increasingly technology-driven industry. This
includes advancements in areas such as connectivity, infotainment systems, and
vehicle-to-vehicle communication.
General Motors remains a major player in the automotive industry, constantly adapting to
changing market trends and technological advancements.

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Harley-Davidson:

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (H-D, or simply Harley) is an American motorcycle manufacturer

headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, United States. Founded in 1903, it is one of two
major American motorcycle manufacturers to survive the Great Depression along with its
historical rival, Indian Motorcycles.[3] The company has survived numerous ownership
arrangements, subsidiary arrangements, periods of poor economic health and product
quality, and intense global competition[4] to become one of the world’s largest motorcycle
manufacturers and an iconic brand widely known for its loyal following. There are owner
clubs and events worldwide, as well as a company-sponsored, brand-focused museum.
Harley-Davidson is noted for a style of customization that gave rise to the chopper
motorcycle style.[5] The company traditionally marketed heavyweight, air-cooled cruiser
motorcycles with engine displacements greater than 700 cc, but it has broadened its
offerings to include more contemporary VRSC (2002) and middle-weight Street (2014)
platforms.
Harley-Davidson manufactures its motorcycles at factories in[6] York, Pennsylvania;
Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin; Tomahawk, Wisconsin; Manaus, Brazil; and Rayong, Thailand.
[7] The company markets its products worldwide, and also licenses and markets
merchandise under the Harley-Davidson brand, among them apparel, home décor and
ornaments, accessories, toys, scale models of its motorcycles, and video games based on its
motorcycle line and the community.
1.Company type- Public
2.Traded as -NYSE: HOG, S&P 400 component
3.ISIN- US4128221086
4.Industry- Automotive
5.Founded- 1903; 121 years ago
6.Founder- William S. Harley, Arthur Davidson, Walter Davidson, William A. Davidson
7.Headquarters- Milwaukee, Wisconsin, U.S.
8.Key people- Jochen Zeitz (CEO and chairman)
9.Products- Motorcycles
10.Production output- Decrease 162,771 units (2023)
11.Revenue- Increase US$5.84 billion (2023)
12.Operating income- Decrease US$779 million (2023)
13.Net income- Decrease US$695 million(2023)

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14.Total assets- Increase US$12.1 billion (2023)

15.Total equity- Increase US$3.25 billion (2023)
16.Number of employees- c. 6,400 (2023)
17.Subsidiaries- Harley-Davidson EMEA, Harley-Davidson Brazil, Harley-Davidson India,
Harley-Davidson Asia.

Business activities of Harley-Davidson:

Harley-Davidson engages in various business activities including:

1. Manufacturing and selling motorcycles: Harley-Davidson is renowned for its iconic

motorcycles, catering to a wide range of riders with different models and
customization options.
2. Parts and accessories sales: The company sells a variety of parts and accessories for
motorcycles, allowing riders to customize and maintain their bikes according to their
preferences.
3. Apparel and merchandise: Harley-Davidson offers a range of branded apparel and
merchandise including clothing, helmets, gloves, and other accessories for riders and
enthusiasts.
4. Financial services: Harley-Davidson provides financing options for customers
purchasing motorcycles, as well as insurance and extended service plans.
5. Motorcycle rentals: Some Harley-Davidson dealerships offer motorcycle rental
services, allowing customers to experience riding a Harley-Davidson motorcycle
without owning one.
6. Licensing: The company licenses its brand for various products including apparel,
accessories, and even home décor items, allowing other companies to use the
Harley-Davidson brand on their products.

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CONCLUSION
In conclusion, trend analysis and moving averages are powerful tools used in various fields
such as finance, economics, and signal processing to understand and interpret data trends
over time.
Trend analysis involves examining historical data points to identify patterns or trends that
can help forecast future outcomes. By analyzing trends, businesses, investors, and analysts
can make informed decisions regarding investments, resource allocation, and strategic
planning. Trend analysis helps in understanding whether a particular variable is increasing,
decreasing, or remaining stable over time.
Moving averages are a key component of trend analysis, providing a smoothed
representation of data by calculating averages of subsets of data points over a specified time
period. They help filter out noise and short-term fluctuations, making underlying trends
more apparent. Different types of moving averages, such as simple moving averages (SMA),
exponential moving averages (EMA), and weighted moving averages (WMA), offer flexibility
in capturing different aspects of data trends.
By utilizing moving averages, analysts can identify trend reversals, support and resistance
levels, and potential entry or exit points in financial markets. Moreover, moving averages are
valuable in forecasting future values by extrapolating historical trends. They are also used in
signal processing to filter out noise from signals, enabling more accurate analysis and
decision-making.
In summary, trend analysis and moving averages provide valuable insights into the behavior
of data over time, helping businesses, investors, and analysts make informed decisions and
forecasts in a wide range of applications. Their effectiveness lies in their ability to distill
complex data into actionable insights, aiding in strategic planning and risk management.

REFERENCE
1. TRADING VIEW
2. STATISTICS NOTES OF( PROF.MASTI MA’AM )
3. BUSINESS STATISTICS (BY NOREAN.R. SHARPE )

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