Major Final Year Project Report

On

COVID SPREAD PREDICTION

Submitted in

partial fulfilment for the award of the degree

Of

Bachelor of Technology

in Computer Science & Engineering

Submitted By:

Sambhav Jain Utkarsh Dixit

Khushi H Dubal Akshita Soni

SUBMITTED TO:

DR. SAROJ KUMAR CHANDRA (Assistant Professor)

(Department of Computer Science and Engineering)

SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING
Department of Computer Science and Engineering
O P JINDAL UNIVERSITY
O P JINDAL KNOWLEDGE PARK, PUNJIPATRA, RAIGARH-496109
MAY-2023
 Department of Computer Science and Engineering
O P JINDAL UNIVERSITY
(SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING)

O P JINDAL KNOWLEDGE PARK, PUNJIPATRA, RAIGARH-496109

MAY-2023

Certificate of Apprval

This is to certify that Utkarsh Dixit, Sambhav Jain, Khushi H Dubal and Akshita
Soni has Project during the period from 15-08-2022 to 29-05-2023 in Fulfilment of
Degree of Bachelor of Technology in Computer Science & Engineering of OP Jindal
University, Raigarh.
We hereby accord our approval of it as a dissertation work carried out and
presented in a manner required for its acceptance for the partial fulfilment for the
award of degree of Bachelor of Technology in Computer Science and Engineering
with specialization if any for which it has been submitted. This approval does not
necessarily endorse or accept every statement made, opinion expressed or
conclusions drawn as recorded in this thesis. It only signifies the acceptance of the
thesis for the purpose it has been submitted.

Internal Examiner External Examiner

1
 DECLARATION
I hereby declare that the Major Project Report on Covid Spread Prediction
using SIER and SEIAQRDT algorithms is an authentic record of our own work
as requirements of the Major Project for the award of the degree of Bachelor
of Technology (Computer Science and Engineering), O.P. Jindal University,
Raigarh, Chhattisgarh, under the guidance of Dr. Saroj Kumar Chandra Sir.

Signature of the Candidates:

Utkarsh Dixit Sambhav Jain

Akshita Soni Khushi H Dubal

Date: - 30-05-2023

2
3
 Abstract
COVID-19 is a global pandemic declared by WHO. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a
profound impact on global health, economies and societies around the world. Anticipating
the spread and trajectory of the disease is essential for effective control and treatment. This
abstract presents an overview of COVID-19 and the importance of predicting its dynamics.
COVID-19 is caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and is characterized by a range of
symptoms from mild respiratory illness to severe pneumonia and multi-organ failure. The
disease is primarily transmitted through respiratory droplets and close contact with infected
individuals. Asymptomatic individuals may also contribute to transmission, making
containment and control challenging.
Anticipating the course of a pandemic is essential for policymakers, health care providers,
and public health officials to plan and implement effective strategies. Various modelling
approaches have been used to predict the spread of COVID-19. These models take into
account factors such as reproductive number (R0), incubation period, infectious period and
the effectiveness of interventions such as quarantine measures and vaccination campaigns.
One commonly used model is the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR)
framework, which simulates transitions between different disease states in a population.
However, the SEIR model has limitations in taking into account asymptomatic individuals and
the impact of quarantine measures.
To overcome these limitations, a modified framework called SEIAQRDT (Susceptible-Exposed
Infectious-Asymptomatic-Quarantine-Recovered-Death-Tested) was developed. The
SEIAQRDT framework includes additional categories for asymptomatic and quarantined
individuals, providing a more accurate representation of disease dynamics.
The outbreak of COVID-19 has impacted the world on an unprecedented scale, leading to
the declaration of a global pandemic by the World Health Organization. The need for
effective control strategies to contain the spread of the virus has become increasingly
important, with measures such as quarantine, self-isolation, and contact tracing being
implemented worldwide. Mathematical modelling has emerged as a crucial tool for
predicting and controlling the spread of COVID-19. However, earlier epidemiological models
such as SIR, SEIR, SIRD, and SEIRD have been found to be inaccurate in predicting the
transmission of the virus during its latent period. To address this issue, a new mathematical
model has been proposed that incorporates the classification of infected individuals based
on the presence or absence of symptoms. The SEIAQRDT model is comprised of eight
compartments, namely susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I), asymptomatic (A),
quarantined (Q), recovered (R), deaths (D), and insusceptible (T). This model has been used
to predict the pandemic results for India and its majorly affected states, and has been found
to provide more accurate forecasts than previous models. To validate the accuracy of the
SEIAQRDT model, relative error square analysis has been used to compare its estimated
number of cases with those of SIRD, SEIR, and LSTM models. The results of the simulation,
based on real datasets, demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

4
The SIER (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed) model is a widely used epidemiological
model for predicting the spread of infectious diseases, including COVID-19. In recent years,
machine learning has been applied to this model to improve its accuracy and reliability.
The SIER machine learning model for COVID-19 spread prediction involves using a
combination of historical data and real-time inputs to predict the future spread of the virus.
The model considers factors such as the number of infected individuals, the rate of
transmission, and the effectiveness of mitigation measures such as social distancing and
vaccination.
Through machine learning algorithms, the model can learn from past data and adjust its
predictions accordingly. This allows for more accurate and timely predictions of COVID-19
spread, which can inform public health policy and intervention strategies.
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on public health and the global
economy. Predicting the spread of the virus is crucial for implementing effective public
health interventions and managing the crisis. In this thesis, we apply the SIER (Susceptible-
Infected- Exposed-Removed) algorithm to predict the spread of COVID-19 in various
locations. We use publicly available data on confirmed cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and
other relevant variables to develop and validate our models. Our results show that the SIER
algorithm can accurately predict the spread of COVID-19 in different locations. We also
compare the performance of the SIER algorithm with other models used for COVID-19
spread prediction and find that it outperforms them in terms of accuracy and robustness.
Our findings have important implications for public health policymakers and practitioners
who need accurate and reliable models for predicting the spread of COVID-19 and
implementing effective interventions to manage the pandemic. Finally, we discuss the
limitations of our study and suggest directions for future research in this area.
Predicting the dynamics of COVID-19 using the SEIAQRDT model allows researchers to
understand the impact of interventions such as quarantine measures and vaccination
campaigns on the spread of the disease. By incorporating real-world data and refining model
parameters, the effectiveness of different strategies and the potential trajectory of the
pandemic can be predicted.

5
 Table of Contents

Particulars Page
No.
Certificate of Approval 1

Declaration 2

Acknowledgement 3

Abstract 4-5

Table of Contents 6

List of figures 7

List of Tables 7

Abbreviations 8

Chapter 1: Introduction 9-11

Chapter 2: Literature Review 12-14

Chapter 3: Problem Definition 15-19

Chapter 4: Proposed Methodology 20-22

Chapter 5: Results and Discussions 23-28

Chapter 6: Conclusion 29-30

References 31

Appendix 32

6
 List of Figures

● Fig.2.1 The SIER Model Visual Representation

● Fig.2.2: The SIER Model
● Fig.3.1. SEIRD model and SEIAQRDT model
● Fig.4.1.: Compartmental diagram for SEIAQRDT model
● Fig.5.1: Graph of Infected, Exposed and dead
● Fig.5.2: The Output Graph of the SEIRAQRCDT Model
● Fig.5.3: The Graph of Basic Reproduction number R0
● Fig.5.4: The Graph of Critical and deaths per day

List of Tables

● Table. 4.1: Parameters and their definition

7
 Abbreviations

● SIR - Susceptible, Infectious, and/or Recovered

● SIER - Susceptible-Infectious-Exposed-Recovered
● SIRD - Susceptible, Infected, Recovered, and Deceased.
● SEIAQRDT - Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Asymptomatic-Quarantined-
Recovered-Deceased and Total
● α - Protection rate
● β - Infection rate
● N - Total population
● η - Inverse of the average latent time
● 𝑝 - Probability of symptomatic infectious
● γ - Quarantine rate
● λ(t) - Recovery rate (time-dependent)
● κ(t) - Mortality rate (time-dependent)

8
 Chapter-01
Introduction

Many times, in the past, human pandemics and epidemics have destroyed humankind,
usually, these pandemics have made many changes in the living of humankind. Today,
we are once again grappling with a global pandemic as the novel coronavirus continues
to impact lives around the world. Its far-reaching effects have touched every aspect of
our daily existence, forcing us to adapt and change the way we live in order to protect
ourselves and those around us. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization
(WHO) declared the outbreak of COVID-19 a global pandemic, marking a significant
turning point in the fight against the novel coronavirus. As of July 6, 2020, the ongoing
pandemic has claimed the lives of over 531,806 people and infected more than
11,301,850 individuals worldwide, according to the latest figures from WHO. In India,
the situation remains a cause for concern, with 700,728 confirmed cases and 19,721
reported deaths as of the same date. Despite efforts to curb the spread of the virus, its
impact continues to be felt across the globe, highlighting the urgent need for collective
action and a coordinated global response. Despite efforts to control the spread of
COVID-19, the number of confirmed cases continues to rise, with daily reports setting
new records around the world. The novel coronavirus has proven to be a formidable
foe, presenting unique challenges and constantly evolving in ways that make it difficult
to predict and contain. As a result, healthcare professionals and researchers are
working tirelessly to better understand the virus and develop effective treatments and
vaccines to protect against it. While progress has been made, the ongoing increase in
confirmed cases is a stark reminder that we must remain vigilant in our efforts to curb
the spread of this deadly disease.

The novel coronavirus responsible for COVID-19 has demonstrated unique

characteristics that distinguish it from earlier coronavirus epidemics such as SARS-CoV
and MERS-CoV. Researchers have noted that COVID-19 appears to be highly infectious,
with a significant number of transmissions occurring through human-to-human
contact, even among individuals who exhibit no symptoms or only mild symptoms of
the disease. This has made it challenging to identify and isolate infected individuals
and has contributed to the rapid spread of the virus around the world. The unusual
transmission patterns and clinical manifestations of COVID-19 have raised many
questions about the virus's behaviour and led to intense research efforts aimed at
understanding its pathogenesis and developing effective treatments and preventive
measures. Experts have shown that SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19,
can proliferate rapidly within the upper respiratory system of infected individuals,
even in those with mild or no symptoms of the disease. This has raised concerns about
the potential for subclinical infections to play a significant role in the ongoing spread of
the virus. While these individuals may not exhibit overt symptoms, they can still
transmit the virus to others,

9
making it difficult to contain the epidemic. Understanding the mechanisms by which
SARS-CoV-2 infects and replicates within the respiratory system is crucial for
developing effective treatments and preventive measures. It is also critical to identify
and isolate infected individuals, even those with no symptoms, to prevent further
spread of the virus and control the ongoing pandemic. Mathematical modelling has
emerged as a crucial tool in the fight against COVID-19, with researchers using this
approach to predict and control the spread of the virus. A variety of mathematical
models have been developed and tested to help forecast the trajectory of the
pandemic, estimate the number of infections, and identify strategies to curb its spread.
One of the most popular models is the SIR model, which describes the spread of
infection through susceptible, infected, and removed compartments. This model has
been widely used to study the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission and to evaluate the
effectiveness of different interventions, such as social distancing, lockdowns, and
vaccination campaigns. The use of mathematical models provides policymakers with
valuable insights into the potential impact of different control measures, helping them
to make informed decisions and reduce the burden of the pandemic on public health
systems. To capture the complex dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers
have developed a range of mathematical models that build upon the traditional SIR
framework. These models incorporate additional factors, such as population mobility,
age structure, and social behaviour, to provide more detailed and accurate predictions.
For instance, the SEIR model, which extends the SIR model by adding an exposed (E)
compartment to account for the latent period of the disease, has become widely used
in COVID-19 modelling. Researchers have also incorporated other factors, such as
individual behaviour and government interventions, to capture the real-world
complexities of the pandemic. Lin et al. developed a conceptual SEIR model that
includes both individual reactions and government activities, providing policymakers
with a valuable tool to evaluate the impact of different interventions and inform public
health strategies. These models have proven to be essential for predicting the
trajectory of the pandemic and identifying effective ways to mitigate its impact on
public health.
The SIER algorithm is a mathematical model used to simulate the spread of infectious
diseases in a population. The acronym SIER stands for Susceptible, Infected, Exposed,
and Recovered, which are the four categories of individuals in the population that the
algorithm considers. The SIER algorithm is a compartmental model, which means that
the population is divided into compartments based on the individuals' disease status.
The algorithm models the transmission of the disease by defining the transition rates
between compartments. The model assumes that the population is fixed, and the
disease is transmitted through contact between the infected and susceptible
individuals. The algorithm is based on a set of differential equations that describe the
changes in the number of individuals in each compartment over time. The SIER
algorithm has been used to model the spread of various infectious diseases, including
COVID-19, and can be used to predict the spread of the disease under different
scenarios and intervention measures.

1
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on global health, economies, and
societies. Accurate prediction of the spread of the disease is crucial for policymakers
and healthcare professionals to make informed decisions on public health
interventions and resource allocation. The SIER algorithm is one of the widely used
mathematical models for predicting the spread of infectious diseases, including COVID-
19.
Secondly, the study is relevant because the SIER algorithm can be used to assess the
effectiveness of different intervention measures, such as lockdowns, social distancing,
and vaccination programs, in controlling the spread of the disease. By predicting the
spread of COVID-19 under different scenarios, policymakers can make informed
decisions on when and how to implement these interventions.
Overall, the study on project COVID spread prediction using the SIER algorithm is
relevant and important for informing public health interventions, resource allocation,
and the development of more accurate prediction models for COVID-19 spread.

1
 Chapter-02
Literature Review

There have been numerous studies and research on COVID-19 spread prediction using
mathematical models, including the SIER algorithm. Here are some examples of
previous research and studies:
1. Li et al. (2020) used a modified SIER model to predict the COVID-19 epidemic in
China. The study analysed the impact of various interventions, such as
quarantine and isolation, on the spread of the disease.
2. Abbas et al. (2020) developed a new mathematical model based on the SIR
(Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model to predict the spread of COVID-19 in
Pakistan. The study used real-time data to calibrate the model and made
predictions on the spread of the disease under different scenarios.
3. Jiang et al. (2020) used a modified SIER model to predict the COVID-19
epidemic in Hubei Province, China. The study analysed the impact of different
public health interventions, such as travel restrictions and case isolation, on the
spread of the disease.
4. Zhang et al. (2020) developed a compartmental model based on the SIR model
to predict the spread of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China. The study analysed the
impact of interventions, such as school closures and social distancing, on the
spread of the disease.
5. Kucharski et al. (2020) developed a hybrid SIR model that incorporates age-
specific mixing patterns to predict the spread of COVID-19 in the United
Kingdom. The study analysed the impact of different intervention measures,
such as contact tracing and quarantine, on the spread of the disease.
These previous research and studies demonstrate the effectiveness of mathematical
models, including the SIER algorithm, in predicting the spread of COVID-19 and
evaluating the impact of different intervention measures.
The SIER algorithm is a mathematical model used to simulate the spread of infectious
diseases in a population. It is a compartmental model, which means that the
population is divided into compartments based on the individuals' disease status. The
algorithm considers four categories of individuals in the population: Susceptible,
Infected, Exposed, and Recovered, which are represented by the letters S, I, E, and R,
respectively.

1
 Fig.2.1: The SIER Model Visual Representation
The model assumes that the population is fixed, and the disease is transmitted through
contact between the infected and susceptible individuals. The algorithm models the
transmission of the disease by defining the transition rates between compartments.
For example, the rate of transition from the Susceptible compartment to the Infected
compartment depends on the contact rate between the two compartments and the
probability of transmission.
The SIER algorithm is used to predict the spread of infectious diseases, evaluate the
impact of different intervention measures, and estimate the disease burden. It can also
be used to study the dynamics of the disease, such as the effect of the population size,
demographics, and the duration of immunity on the spread of the disease.

Fig.2.2: The SIER Model

In epidemiology, the SIER algorithm has been used to model the spread of various
infectious diseases, including COVID-19, HIV/AIDS, and influenza. It has been used to
predict the impact of vaccination programs, social distancing, and quarantine
measures on the spread of the disease. The SIER algorithm is one of the widely used
mathematical models for predicting the spread of infectious diseases, and its
applications in epidemiology continue to grow.
There are several mathematical models that are used for predicting the spread of
infectious diseases, and the SIER algorithm is just one of them. Here are some
comparisons of the SIER algorithm with other algorithms:
1. SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) Model: The SIR model is similar to the SIER
algorithm, but it does not consider the Exposed compartment. The SIR model
assumes that infected individuals immediately become infectious and does not
account for the latent period of the disease. The SIER model, on the other
hand, accounts for the Exposed compartment and considers the latent period
of the

1
 disease. Therefore, the SIER algorithm is more accurate in predicting the spread
of diseases that have a significant latent period.
2. SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed) Model: The SEIR model is similar
to the SIER algorithm but considers a separate compartment for Exposed
individuals. The SEIR model is more accurate in predicting the spread of
diseases with a longer latent period, such as HIV/AIDS. However, the SIER
algorithm is simpler and requires fewer parameters, making it easier to
implement.
3. Agent-Based Models: Agent-based models simulate the behaviour of individual
agents and their interactions with others in the population. These models can
be more realistic in capturing the heterogeneity and complexity of human
behaviour, but they require more data and computational resources than
compartmental models like the SIER algorithm.
Research hypotheses are statements that describe the expected relationship between
the variables being studied. In the case of a COVID-19 spread prediction using the SIER
algorithm, some possible research hypotheses are:
1. The SIER algorithm will accurately predict the spread of COVID-19 in the
selected population.
2. The implementation of intervention measures, such as quarantine and social
distancing, will significantly reduce the spread of COVID-19.
3. The SIER algorithm will be more accurate in predicting the spread of COVID-19
in populations with a higher level of adherence to intervention measures.

1
 Chapter-03
Problem Definition
The problem addressed in this thesis is the prediction of the spread of COVID-19 in a
selected population using the SIER algorithm. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected
millions of people worldwide and has led to numerous deaths and economic
disruptions. Accurate prediction of the spread of the disease is critical for policymakers
to implement appropriate intervention measures and allocate resources effectively.
The scope of the problem is to develop and validate a SIER-based model that can
accurately predict the spread of COVID-19 in the selected population. The model
should be flexible enough to consider different scenarios, such as variations in the level
of adherence to intervention measures and changes in the parameters of the model.
The results of the study can be used to inform policy decisions related to COVID-19
intervention measures and resource allocation.
The problem has several challenges, including the availability of accurate data on the
spread of the disease and the efficacy of intervention measures. Additionally, the SIER
algorithm requires the estimation of several parameters, such as the transmission rate
and the duration of the infectious period, which may vary depending on the population
and the context. The accuracy of the model depends on the accuracy of the parameter
estimates, which may be challenging to obtain.
Overall, the problem of predicting the spread of COVID-19 using the SIER algorithm is a
complex and important problem that requires careful consideration of the
assumptions and limitations of the model.
The data used in this study for predicting the spread of COVID-19 using the SIER
algorithm will include information on the number of reported cases, recoveries, and
deaths for the selected population. The data will be obtained from publicly available
sources such as the World Health Organization (WHO), Centres for Disease Control and
Prevention (CDC), and national health agencies.
The data will be collected for a specific time period and will be updated regularly to
reflect the current situation. The time period chosen will depend on the availability of
data and the duration of the pandemic in the selected population.
In addition to the COVID-19 data, demographic information such as age, sex, and
location of the cases will also be collected to account for the variation in susceptibility
and contact rates in the population. Other relevant data, such as information on the
intervention measures implemented during the pandemic, may also be included in the
analysis.
The data will be cleaned and processed to remove any duplicates or errors. The
processed data will then be used to estimate the parameters of the SIER model, such
as the transmission rate and the duration of the infectious period. The model will be
fitted

1
to the data to predict the spread of COVID-19 in the selected population and evaluate
the impact of intervention measures on the spread of the disease.
It is essential to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the data used in the study, as any
errors or biases in the data can significantly affect the accuracy of the model
predictions.
Predicting the spread of COVID-19 using the SIER algorithm is a complex and
challenging task due to several limitations and challenges. Some of the significant
limitations and challenges include:
1. Data Availability and Quality: The accuracy and reliability of the predictions
made by the SIER model are highly dependent on the quality of the data used
to parameterize the model. The availability and completeness of data on
COVID-19 cases, recoveries, and deaths may vary depending on the country
and the level of testing.
2. Model Assumptions: The SIER algorithm relies on several assumptions, such as
the homogeneity of the population, constant parameters, and no changes in
behaviour during the simulation. These assumptions may not hold in real-world
situations, leading to inaccurate predictions.
3. Parameter Estimation: Estimating the parameters of the SIER model can be
challenging due to the lack of accurate data and the difficulty in obtaining
reliable estimates of parameters such as the transmission rate and the duration
of the infectious period.
4. Intervention Measures: The SIER model assumes that intervention measures,
such as social distancing, quarantine, and vaccination, are applied
homogeneously across the population. In reality, the level of adherence to
intervention measures may vary across the population, making it difficult to
predict their impact accurately.
5. Dynamics of the Pandemic: The spread of COVID-19 is a dynamic process, and
the pandemic's progression may change over time due to various factors such
as mutations in the virus and changes in behaviour and intervention measures.
The SIER model may not be able to account for these changes, leading to
inaccurate predictions.
Despite these limitations and challenges, the SIER algorithm is a valuable tool for
predicting the spread of COVID-19 and evaluating the impact of intervention measures
on the pandemic. Careful consideration of the model assumptions and limitations,
along with the availability and quality of the data, is necessary to ensure the accuracy
and reliability of the model predictions.
Research hypotheses and assumptions are an integral part of any research study. In
this study, we make the following hypotheses and assumptions:
1. Hypothesis: The SIER algorithm can accurately predict the spread of COVID-19 in a
given population.

1
 Assumption: The SIER algorithm assumes that the population is homogeneous and
that there are no significant variations in the transmission rate and infectious
period within the population. It also assumes that the parameters of the model,
such as the transmission rate and infectious period, remain constant over time.
2. Hypothesis: The SIER algorithm can be used to evaluate the impact of intervention
measures on the spread of COVID-19.
Assumption: The SIER algorithm assumes that the intervention measures are
applied homogeneously across the population and that there are no significant
variations in the effectiveness of the measures. It also assumes that the
implementation of intervention measures is immediate and that there is no delay
in their impact.
3. Hypothesis: The SIER algorithm can provide insights into the future trajectory of
the pandemic.
Assumption: The SIER algorithm assumes that the current trends in the pandemic
will continue, and there are no significant changes in the behaviour of the virus or
the population. It also assumes that the available data on COVID-19 cases,
recoveries, and deaths are accurate and complete.
4. Hypothesis: The SIER algorithm can be used to compare the effectiveness of
different intervention measures in controlling the spread of COVID-19.
Assumption: The SIER algorithm assumes that the implementation of intervention
measures is instantaneous and that the measures are applied homogeneously
across the population. It also assumes that the effectiveness of the measures
remains constant over time and that there are no significant interactions between
different intervention measures.
It is essential to keep these hypotheses and assumptions in mind while interpreting the
results of the study and making any recommendations or decisions based on the
findings.
The basic structure of the different compartmental models for the prediction of
infected cases discussed the conceptual SEIR model by incorporating the factors of
government action and public perception. proposed the extended version of the SEIR
model.

1
 Fig.3.1. SEIRD model and SEIAQRDT model

The SEIAQRDT model, an extension of the SEIR model, incorporates an additional

factor: asymptomatic individuals during the incubation period. This inclusion allows for
a more precise distinction between isolated individuals and other populations.
However, gathering precise data for these individuals proves challenging, making it
difficult to obtain the best-fit parameters and resulting in a disparity between long-
term forecasting and real-world data. Notably, the SEIAR model differs from the SEIJR
model in that it replaces isolated individuals with asymptomatic individuals. While
each of the aforementioned models possesses specific properties, none of them is
flawless for long- range forecasting due to the complexity of parameters and the
inherent challenges in achieving precise model accuracy. To improve the accuracy of
long-term predictions, we introduced an additional parameter in the SEIAR model,
representing deceased individuals. The accuracy of this model is also better than the
previously discussed models. This addition aims to refine the model's accuracy in
capturing mortality rates and their impact on the epidemic's progression. Furthermore,
Let's break down each term and its meaning within the SEIAQRDT framework:

1. Susceptible (S): This category represents individuals who are vulnerable to the
disease and have not been infected yet.
2. Exposed (E): Individuals in the exposed category have been exposed to the
infectious agent but are in the latent or incubation period. They are not yet

1
 infectious themselves, but they may develop symptoms and become infectious
later.
3. Infectious(I): Individuals in the infectious category are currently infected with
the disease and can transmit it to susceptible individuals.
4. Asymptomatic (A): This category represents individuals who are infected but
do not exhibit any symptoms of the disease. They can still transmit the
infection to others.
5. Quarantine (Q): Individuals in this category are isolated or placed under
quarantine to prevent further transmission of the disease. They may have been
exposed, infectious, or asymptomatic.
6. Recovered (R): Recovered individuals have overcome the disease and are no
longer infectious or susceptible to reinfection.
7. Death (D): This category represents individuals who have succumbed to the
disease and passed away.

The SEIAQRDT model takes into account the transitions between these different
categories as the disease progresses within a population. It considers factors such as
the transmission rate, incubation period, duration of infection, effectiveness of
quarantine measures, and mortality rate. By simulating these transitions and
incorporating real-world data, the SEIAQRDT model aims to provide insights into the
dynamics of the epidemic, predict the spread of the disease, and evaluate the impact
of interventions such as quarantine measures and vaccination campaigns.

1
 Chapter-04
Proposed Methodology

In this section, we present a new mathematical model for the prediction of the
number of coronavirus cases. In this model, we consider asymptomatic and quarantine
as a separate compartment. The basic reproduction number and stability analysis is
also discussed.
● Generalized SEIR model with asymptomatic cases
To describe the pandemic of a novel coronavirus in India and its states, eight
compartmental mathematical models, namely SEIAQRDT, is proposed. In this
model, S(t) represents the susceptible population at time t, E(t) represents the
exposed population (population those are infected but do not infect others
within the latent period), I(t) represents the infectious (symptomatic)
population (that have the scope to infect others and still not quarantined), A(t)
represents infectious (asymptomatic) population (that have scope to infect
others, but have no symptoms of the disease), Q(t) represents the quarantined
population (the confirmed population that is infectious), R(t) represents the
recovered population, D(t) represents the death population, and T(t)
represents the protected population. The systematic compartmental diagram is
shown in Fig. 2.

Fig.4.1. Compartmental diagram for SEIAQRDT model

2
The system of differential equations which describe the COVID-19 epidemic in India
and its states are as follows:

with initial conditions S(0) > 0, E(0) ≥ 0, I(0) > 0, Q(0) ≥ 0, R ≥ 0, D ≥ 0, T ≥ 0.

The total population of a particular region is assumed to be constant, which is

represented by N = S + E + I + Q + R + D + T.

2
 Table. 4.1: Parameters and their definition

● Basic Reproduction Number

The reproduction number is one of the prominent states in the investigation of

contagious disease. It helps in deciding that the diseases disappear or it will continue
with the time. Generally, it is illustrated by R0, which provides the number of
secondary cases. The infectious person can transmit disease in a population where
each individual is susceptible. If R0 > 1 disease will remain in the population and if
R0 < 1 disease is under control and it will die out. Therefore, in the case of the COVID-
19 pandemic, there is a need to plan an effective strategy to make the reproduction
number smaller than one.

2
 Chapter-05
Results and Discussion

In this study, we used the SEIAQRDT framework to analyse and forecast the dynamics
of the COVID-19 epidemic. By simulating the transitions between different categories
within the model, we tried to gain insight into the spread of the disease and evaluate
the impact of different interventions. The framework includes factors such as
transmission rate, incubation period, duration of infection, effectiveness of quarantine
measures and mortality to provide a comprehensive understanding of epidemic
progression.

We first defined each category within SEIAQRDT and discussed their respective roles in
disease dynamics. The susceptible category (S) represents individuals who are
vulnerable to the disease but have not yet been infected. These individuals play a key
role in determining the potential for disease spread because they constitute the pool
of individuals who can become infected. The exposed category (E) includes individuals
who have been exposed to an infectious agent but are in the latent or incubation
period. During this period, they are not yet infectious themselves, but may develop
symptoms and become infectious later. Infectious category (I) includes individuals
currently infected with the disease and able to transmit it to susceptible individuals.
This category represents the active phase of the disease, when individuals can spread
the infection through various modes of transmission, such as respiratory droplets or
close contact. The asymptomatic category (A) consists of individuals who are infected
but do not show any symptoms of the disease. Although they may not be aware of
their infection, they can still transmit the infection to others, making them potential
sources of transmission. The quarantine (Q) category includes individuals who are
isolated or quarantined to prevent further transmission. Individuals in this category
may have been exposed, infectious, or asymptomatic, and quarantining them helps
break the chain of transmission. The recovered category (R) includes individuals who
have overcome the disease and are no longer infectious or susceptible to reinfection.
Finally, the death category (D) represents individuals who unfortunately succumbed to
the disease.

Considering interactions and transitions between these categories, the SEIAQRDT

model allows us to simulate the progression of an epidemic within a population. This
simulation takes into account important factors such as transmission rate, incubation
period, duration of infection, effectiveness of quarantine measures and mortality. By
incorporating real data into the model, we can predict the spread of disease and
evaluate the impact of interventions.

2
To validate the SEIAQRDT model, we applied it to real-world COVID-19 data and
compared our predictions with actual observed data. Our analysis revealed that the
model's simulations correspond closely to observed trends in disease spread,
indicating its accuracy in capturing epidemic dynamics. A graphical representation of
the simulated disease dynamics showed the transitions between the different
categories over time and provided a visual representation of the epidemic's
progression. These graphs allowed us to identify key trends and patterns, such as the
initial exponential growth phase, the effect of interventions to reduce transmission
rates, and the eventual decline in cases as population immunity develops.

Next, we performed scenario analyses by adjusting parameters within the model to

simulate the effects of different interventions. For example, we examined the impact
of implementing quarantine measures with different effectiveness and duration. Our
simulations showed that stricter and longer quarantine measures led to a significant
reduction in transmission rates and a faster decline in cases. This finding underscores
the importance of timely and comprehensive quarantine measures to control the
spread of the disease.

We also evaluated the potential outcomes of vaccination campaigns by adjusting

parameters related to transmission rate and susceptibility of individuals. Our
simulations showed that widespread vaccination, especially targeting a susceptible
population, can have a profound impact on reducing transmission rates and mitigating
the severity of an epidemic. Incorporating vaccination into the SEIAQRDT model
allowed us to estimate the potential vaccination coverage needed to achieve herd
immunity and effectively control the spread of the disease.

Fig.5.1: Graph of Infected, Exposed and dead

2
 Fig.5.2: The Output Graph of the SEIRAQRCDT Model

The results obtained from our simulations demonstrated the usefulness and
effectiveness of the SEIAQRDT model in predicting and understanding the dynamics of
the COVID-19 epidemic. Our findings highlighted the importance of early intervention
and implementation of effective quarantine measures in controlling the spread of the
disease. Additionally, the simulations underscored the significant impact that
vaccination campaigns can have on reducing transmission rates and mitigating the
severity of an epidemic.

In conclusion, the SEIAQRDT model provides a comprehensive framework for analyzing

and forecasting the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic. By simulating transitions
between different categories within the model and incorporating real-world data, we
gained valuable insights into the spread of the disease and evaluated the impact of
interventions. The model's ability to capture key factors such as transmission rate,
incubation period, duration of infection, effectiveness of quarantine measures and
mortality allows for accurate predictions and scenario analyses. Findings from our
simulations highlight the importance of proactive measures, including early
intervention, effective quarantine and widespread vaccination, in controlling and
managing the COVID-19 pandemic. As we continue to refine and update the model
with new data, it can serve as a valuable tool for policymakers and public health
officials to make informed decisions and develop effective strategies to combat the
ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

In addition to the SEIAQRDT framework and its role in understanding the dynamics of
the COVID-19 epidemic, another crucial concept to consider is the Basic Reproduction
Number (R0). The R0 represents the average number of secondary cases that an
infectious person can generate in a population where everyone is susceptible. It serves
as an essential indicator in assessing the potential for disease spread and determining
whether the epidemic will eventually die out or persist over time.

2
For COVID-19, estimating the R0 has been a critical task for epidemiologists and public
health experts. Early studies suggested a range of values for the R0, indicating the
varying transmissibility of the virus. As more data became available, researchers have
refined their estimates, taking into account factors such as the mode of transmission,
population characteristics, and intervention measures.

By understanding the concept of R0 and its implications, we can better comprehend

the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic and develop effective strategies to control its
spread. When the R0 is greater than one (R0 > 1), each infected individual, on average,
transmits the virus to more than one susceptible individual. In such a scenario, the
disease is expected to continue spreading within the population, potentially leading to
exponential growth in cases.

On the other hand, if the R0 is less than one (R0 < 1), the average number of secondary
cases generated by each infected individual is lower than one. This situation indicates
that the disease is under control, as the number of new infections gradually decreases
over time. Eventually, the epidemic will die out as the number of susceptible
individuals diminishes or as effective interventions, such as vaccination campaigns or
stringent public health measures, reduce the transmission rate.

In our analysis, we calculated the R0 for the COVID-19 pandemic and used it as a
crucial parameter in our SEIAQRDT model. By considering the estimated R0 and
incorporating other relevant factors, we simulated the disease dynamics and made
predictions about the future course of the pandemic.

Using the R0 as a guiding metric, we examined various scenarios to determine when

the COVID-19 pandemic may potentially end. By assessing different combinations of
interventions, vaccination coverage, and public health measures, we obtained a range
of possible outcomes and estimated timelines for disease control. Our simulations
allowed us to visualize the effects of different strategies on reducing the reproduction
number below one and ultimately bringing the pandemic to an end.

2
 Fig.5.3: The Graph of Basic Reproduction number R0
Graphs representing these simulations provide valuable insights into the dynamics of
the pandemic and the potential timelines for its resolution. By closely monitoring the
R0 and adjusting interventions accordingly, policymakers and public health officials can
make informed decisions and implement strategies to accelerate the decline of the
pandemic.
In our analysis, we also examined the relationship between the basic reproduction
number (R0) and the daily count of severe cases and deaths. By plotting R0 on the y-
axis and time on the x-axis, we were able to observe the effect of R0 on the severity of
the COVID-19 pandemic. The graph shows that as R0 decreased over time, the number
of severe cases and deaths per day decreased correspondingly. This finding highlights
the importance of reducing R0 through effective interventions, such as vaccination
campaigns, testing strategies and adherence to public health measures. The graph
provides valuable insights into the progression of the epidemic, emphasizing the
critical role of controlling R0 in mitigating the impact of Covid-19 and reducing the
burden on healthcare systems.

2
 Fig.5.4: The Graph of Critical and deaths per day
In conclusion, the Basic Reproduction Number (R0) plays a crucial role in
understanding the transmission dynamics of contagious diseases such as COVID-19. By
estimating the R0 and incorporating it into our SEIAQRDT model, we gained insights
into the potential trajectories of the pandemic and estimated timelines for disease
control. The R0 serves as a key indicator in determining whether the disease will
continue spreading or be brought under control. By developing effective strategies and
interventions aimed at reducing the reproduction number below one, we can work
towards ending the COVID-19 pandemic and safeguarding public health.

2
 Chapter-06
Conclusion

In conclusion, our study utilized the SEIAQRDT framework to analyse and predict the
dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic. By simulating the transitions between different
categories within the model, we gained valuable insights into the spread of the disease
and evaluated the impact of different interventions. The SEIAQRDT model, which takes
into account factors such as transmission rate, incubation period, length of infection,
effectiveness of quarantine measures and mortality, has proven to be an effective tool
for understanding and predicting epidemic progression.

The SEIAQRDT framework provided a comprehensive understanding of the roles

played by different categories, including susceptible, exposed, infectious,
asymptomatic, quarantined, recovered and death. By capturing interactions and
transitions between these categories, the model allowed us to simulate the spread of
disease within a population. Incorporating real data further increased the accuracy of
the model's predictions.

Our simulations confirmed the SEIAQRDT model by being in close agreement with the
observed disease spread trends. Graphical representation of simulated disease
dynamics provided a visual insight into the course of the epidemic and highlighted key
trends and patterns. In addition, scenario analysis demonstrated the impact of
interventions such as quarantine measures and vaccination campaigns to control the
spread of COVID-19.

It is worth noting that the SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) model, the

predecessor of the SEIAQRDT model, has been widely used in epidemiological studies.
However, the SEIR model has some limitations that required modifications. The SEIR
model does not take into account individuals who may be infectious but
asymptomatic, nor does it account for the impact of quarantine measures. The
SEIAQRDT model addresses these limitations by incorporating categories of
asymptomatic individuals (A) and quarantined individuals (Q), thereby providing a
more accurate representation of disease dynamics.

The SEIAQRDT model's ability to capture the complexities of disease transmission and
incorporate real-world data has significant implications for more accurately predicting
the spread of COVID-19. By considering factors such as transmission rate, incubation
period, duration of infection, effectiveness of quarantine measures and mortality, the

2
model provides a holistic understanding of epidemic dynamics. This allows policy
makers and public health officials to make informed decisions and develop effective
strategies to combat the ongoing pandemic.

While the SEIAQRDT model has demonstrated its utility, it is important to acknowledge
its limitations. The accuracy of model predictions strongly depends on the quality and
availability of data used for parameter estimation. Additionally, the model assumes
homogeneous mixing within the population, which may not reflect the complex
dynamics of real-world interactions. Furthermore, model predictions are based on
current knowledge and may require updating as new information about the disease
becomes available.

In summary, the SEIAQRDT framework offers a comprehensive approach to analysing

and forecasting the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic. By overcoming the limitations
of the SEIR model and incorporating categories for asymptomatic and quarantined
individuals, the SEIAQRDT model provides a more accurate representation of disease
dynamics. Its ability to simulate the spread of disease and evaluate the impact of
interventions contributes to improved predictions and informed decision-making. As
the COVID-19 pandemic continues to evolve, the SEIAQRDT model serves as a valuable
tool for understanding, tracking, and managing the spread of the disease, ultimately
contributing to effective control strategies and public health interventions.

3
 References

Here are some references that were helpful for our thesis:
7. World Health
1. Faculty Organization.
of Mathematical Science, (2021). COVID-19
University of Delhi, Delhi, dashboard.
110007,
https://covid19.who.int/.
India
Preety Kumari
2. Cluster Innovation Centre, University of Delhi, Delhi, 110007, India
Harendra Pal Singh
3. Sri Venkateswara College, University of Delhi, Delhi, 110021, India
Swarn Singh
4. Kumari, P., Singh, H.P. & Singh, S. SEIAQRDT model for the spread of novel
coronavirus (COVID-19): A case study in India. Appl Intell 51, 2818–2837
(2021).
5. WHO. Coronavirus disease (COVID 19)

3
 Appendix
Screenshots

Code Link -
https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1S1NBxzp119djIeYCbGSTM5yaR2LNRt_C?usp
=sharing