Introduction to Statistics

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For CMVP Candidates

Lesson 1
Why CMVPs need statistics
Bruce Rowse
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What is statistics?
• Statistics deals with the collection, analysis,
interpretation and presentation of numerical data.
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Why does anyone need stats?

Facts are stubborn, but statistics are
more pliable: Mark Twain
In ancient times they had no
statistics so they had to fall back on
lies: Stephen Leacock

It is the mark of a truly intelligent

person to be moved by statistics:
George Bernard Shaw
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Statistics provide insights

• Is there a pattern?
EUREKA!
• What is the mathematical
correlation?
• How confident can we be in
the numbers?
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Why do CMVPs need statistics?

• To develop models
that enable the
making of routine
adjustments by
relating energy
consumption to
variables such as
weather,
production, etc.
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Why do CMVPs need statistics?

• If we are basing our
estimates on a
number of samples,
not the whole
population, to
determine the
number of samples
required.
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Why do CMVPs need statistics?

• To determine how
confident we are in
savings estimates
and the level of
uncertainty.
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Why do CMVPs need statistics?

• To make M&V
bankable
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For an ESCO
• If you are an ESCO –
stats can help you
identify savings
(regression) and
understand risk
(uncertainty)
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For administrators/ policy makers

• If you administer
energy efficiency
programs – stats
(eg. sampling) can
help you estimate
program impact
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For energy auditors

• If you are an energy
auditor stats can
help you convince
your client to go
ahead and act on
your audit report
(uncertainty)
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For owners and investors

• If you are a facility
owner or investor
stats can help you in
due diligence
(uncertainty) and do
a reality check
(regression)
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Quiz
• Now complete the quiz