10th CIGRE Southern Africa

Regional Conference
2nd – 4th November 2021
Johannesburg, South Africa

Determining Vulnerability Parameters for Power Generation Fleets

to Adverse Environmental Conditions

M. VILJOEN1 J.A. DE KOCK2

Eskom1 North-West University2
South Africa1 South Africa2

SUMMARY

Weather patterns are not stable phenomena. They vary greatly – both in terms of short
and long term cycles.

Essentially all technologies of power generation are affected by adverse weather

events. Renewable power producers are particularly susceptible to shifts in weather
conditions, but even the more conventional power generation technologies exhibit
weather related limitations. When the envelope is exceeded, operational aspects
become affected and could become entirely compromised.

But some of the envelope boundaries are difficult to ascertain. In some cases, an
envelope boundary could be a constraint that stems from the design of the plant, while
in other cases it may merely be an inherent predisposition of a specific power plant or
technology type to an environmental condition. The boundary associated with such an
inherent disposition could be difficult to determine from design information and may
also be impractical to be tested. It is therefore needed to make use of other means to
determine the boundaries that may affect power plants or the overall power system.

While generating plants are generally specified to be able to withstand specific levels
of environmental conditions, e.g. ambient temperature, other types of environmental
conditions are difficult to specify, e.g. the atmospheric dust density.

Besides limitations that may affect a specific generating unit or plant, there is also an
issue of fleet resilience or susceptibility to environmental conditions. Various plants
may be owned and operated by different legal entities and information sharing between
parties may be difficult from a legal or contractual perspective. The question can be
asked whether it is possible to determine sensitivity metrics for large populations of
generation resources – not under the control of a single entity.

vilmac@eskom.co.za
 10th CIGRE Southern Africa
Regional Conference
2nd – 4th November 2021
Johannesburg, South Africa
The paper explores the issue of obtaining reliable fleet susceptibility information
through the use of an operational research methodology. A South African case study
is used as a means to demonstrate the value and benefit of conducting an in-depth
post-event analysis to determine environmental disruption thresholds on a fleet-wide
basis. It explores the correlation between disruption within a widespread generation
fleet and the manifestation thereof in terms of the disruption of the power system and
resulting in the deterioration of interconnected power station (IPS) performance.

Making use of methods demonstrated in this paper could provide valuable information
for the management of power systems, such as the sufficiency of reserves, blackout
risk assessment, contingency planning, forecasting, outage scheduling, etc. As a tool,
such a methodology could augment existing sources of information to allow System
Operators to better prepare for changes emanating from shifts or changes in climatic
patterns.

KEYWORDS

Power system, power station, disruption, weather, climate change, rainfall, planning,
mitigation, susceptibility, vulnerability.

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 10th CIGRE Southern Africa
Regional Conference
2nd – 4th November 2021
Johannesburg, South Africa
1 RAINFALL AS A POWER SYSTEM DISRUPTOR
There is almost no end to the number of factors that could lead to, or contribute to the
disruption of a power system. Amongst those many factors, weather conditions
represent but one such an example – and weather itself represent a collective of many
possible manifestations that individually (or in combination with others) could have an
adverse impact on a power system (e.g. snow, wind, rainfall, etc.).

A power system in itself comprise equally of many different components – and one of
the most pronounced components is that of a power station. The disruption of power
stations can have an immensely negative impact on the overall power system
performance, depending on the extent of the disruption.

One example of a weather-related factor that could disrupt a power station is rainfall.
Whether rainfall is either excessive or lacking, power stations could suffer as a result,
and consequently, a power system could become compromised. But, it can be very
difficult to obtain accurate information on the susceptibility of a power station (or indeed
of a fleet of power stations) that could aid in planning and mitigation. In the next
section, an actual disruption event related to the issue of rainfall will be considered as
a case study.

2 RAINFALL SUSCEPTIBILITY: A SOUTH AFRICAN CASE STUDY

2.1 Background
South Africa is classified as an arid region, with an average yearly rainfall of about
450 mm as compared to the global average of about 800 mm.

Power generation in South Africa is dominated by coal as the primary energy source,
and power stations generally feature tied open-cast coal mines in close proximity to
the power station. In addition to an open cast coal mine, each power station has a coal
stockyard adjacent to the power station stocking about 20 days of coal. With both the
coal mines and the coal stockyards being open storage facilities, rainfall would affect
the fuel source to the power stations – manifesting as a disruption to the normal
operation of the plant, cause a reduction in combustion efficiency and potentially
compromise the stability of the generating units.

South Africa, specifically, also has an additional weakness in its coal power station
fleet – as can be seen in the following map of the country with the power stations
indicated thereon.

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 10th CIGRE Southern Africa
Regional Conference
2nd – 4th November 2021
Johannesburg, South Africa

Figure 1: Map of power stations in South Africa

It is rather evident from the map that essentially all of the coal-fired power stations in
South Africa are clustered together in the confines of a single region – mostly within
the Mpumalanga province. This clustering has the obvious disadvantage that these
power stations would be collectively affected by an adverse climatic condition occurring
over a large area in that region.
2.2 Rainfall Disruption: Coal Power Station Predisposition
Almost any environmental condition shall, if taken to extremes, disrupt the generation
of electricity. Rainfall, even in arid countries, is not an unusual occurrence and it is
generally believed that normal power generation facilities should be designed to be
capable of tolerating normal occurrences. To gain a more encompassing
understanding of this susceptibility of coal-fired power stations to rainfall, to following
needs to be considered.

A very large component in the operational activities at coal power stations is that of
materials handling. Coal needs to be transported to a power station, then distributed
between the various generating units, then pulverised into a fine powder to be carried
within an air stream into a furnace for combustion, then the ash needs to be collected
and once again transported to waste facilities. Much of the transportation occurs
through the use of overland conveyor belts.

In the South African scenario (not unlike most international cases) the power station is
serviced by an open cast coal mine near the power station. Coal from the mine is then
conveyed to a coal stockyard – a vast open facility where coal is kept in bulk for
reclamation when needed.

When raining, the coal is exposed to water accumulation in the cavities between the
separate coal fragments comprising the mined product. In the extreme, coal becomes
saturated with water, causing the reclaimed product to form a slurry, for which the
power station is not designed. Neither the process of pulverisation nor of combustion
of such a product is readily achievable under conditions of total water saturation –
moderate moisture content can be expelled but the means to achieve such water

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 10th CIGRE Southern Africa
Regional Conference
2nd – 4th November 2021
Johannesburg, South Africa
expulsion can become overwhelmed and ultimately defeated when presented with a
slurry.
2.3 Event Description
During the summer months of October and November 2019, the interior of South Africa
experienced very warm conditions with normal rainfall being recorded in Mpumalanga.
Then, due to a change in the local weather pattern at that time, much moisture moved
into the interior and persistent rainfall began that continued for several days over most
of the region.

To analyse the information, data were obtained from seven weather stations situated
throughout the region – each with a measurement resolution of 10 minutes. The
average rainfall in the region is shown in figure 2.

45,0
Average regional rainfall (in mm)

40,0
35,0
30,0
25,0
20,0
15,0
10,0
5,0
0,0
2019-10-22 2019-11-11 2019-12-01 2019-12-21 2020-01-10 2020-01-30 2020-02-19

Figure 2: Recorded regional daily average rainfall

Although the above graphic shows an increase in individual days in early December,
it does not seem excessive in itself – after all, 40 mm of rain during a single day can
hardly be considered excessive. To analyse the data more effectively, the same
information shown above is shown below with the total cumulative rainfall for a 10-day
rolling window overlaid.
450

400 10-day total (rolling window)

10-day rolling window (in mm)

350 Regional average

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
2019-10-22 2019-11-11 2019-12-01 2019-12-21 2020-01-10 2020-01-30 2020-02-19
Figure 3: 10-day rolling average rainfall data for the region

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 10th CIGRE Southern Africa
Regional Conference
2nd – 4th November 2021
Johannesburg, South Africa
Note that 10 days were selected based on the empirical average time that between
drenching a large open coal sample with water, to the time that the water is no longer
visibly present in the sample.

From figure 3 it is obvious that the rainfall during this window of analysis has indeed
been excessive, with the 10-day cumulative peak being about equal to the value of the
yearly South African average – received within the space of a mere 10 days.
2.4 Disruptive Consequences suffered by Power Stations
Due to the context provided as background above, high rainfall would tend to
predominantly disrupt power stations in terms of their systems that pertain to coal, ash
and combustion. Disrupting such systems will manifest in the inability of a power
station to produce power at contracted values or to remain in service.

To understand the impact of the excessive rainfall, the production information of 11

coal-fired power stations in the region was analysed at an analysis resolution of
6 hours, and are shown below, overlaid with the 10-day rolling window rainfall data
presented earlier.

7000 450
Loss in generating capacity (in MW)

Loss of capacity 400

10-day cum. rainfall (in mm)

6000
10-day total (rolling window)
350
5000
300
4000 250

3000 200
150
2000
100
1000
50
0 0

Figure 4: Fleet-wide losses in production resulting from high rainfall

From the representation above, it can be seen that the rainfall increased the specific
(moisture related) losses from an average of about 1 500 MW in November, to a peak
of about 5 200 MW.

Other performance-related impacts for the fleet of large power stations in South Africa
were investigated, similarly to the analysis shown above into aspects such as the
number of units tripping and the dispatch of gas generation to supplement shortages
– shown in the following set of graphics (figure 5).

From this representation in figure 5, the generation impact due to the high rainfall can
be better appreciated – and the correlation between the impact and the rainfall is
evident.

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 10th CIGRE Southern Africa
Regional Conference
2nd – 4th November 2021
Johannesburg, South Africa

Figure 5: Adverse production impacts due to high rainfall (same time scale)

During December 2019, when the effects of the high rainfall were most pronounced, a
total of 45 units either tripped, failed to remain in service or were deliberately shut down
– stemming from the high rainfall.

As a final perspective in terms of the adverse impact of power generation, the

consumption of fuel oil has been investigated. Fuel oil is used to stabilize boiler
combustion and is used to light-up units when returning to service. In this case, the
monthly totals for the affected power stations in the region are shown in the following
graphic (note that the unit of measure has deliberately been omitted due to the
sensitivity of the information).

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 10th CIGRE Southern Africa
Regional Conference
2nd – 4th November 2021
Johannesburg, South Africa
10

9
Fuel oil usage (bulk unit of measure)

0
Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20

Figure 6: Fuel oil consumption (overall) for the fleet of coal stations in the region

It can be seen that the fuel oil consumption for December 2019 shows an increase of
44% over the average of the other 11 months in the financial year.
2.5 Power System Disruption
The above perspective provides an insight into the disruption of 11 power stations in a
region that received a disproportional amount of rainfall within a relatively short space
of time. The ultimate impact, however, is not in terms of power generation, but
ultimately in terms of the overall power system performance.

To gain an understanding in terms of the impact that the high rainfall had on the greater
power system, two impacts were investigated specifically. Firstly, the number of low-
frequency incidents experienced on the interconnected power system was obtained,
and secondly the effect that the constrained power system had on customer load in
terms of load shedding. These two perspectives are shared in the following graphic
with the 10-day cumulative rainfall rolling window (to be able to observe time
correlation).

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 10th CIGRE Southern Africa
Regional Conference
2nd – 4th November 2021
Johannesburg, South Africa

Figure 7: Adverse impact on the power system due to high rainfall

The low-frequency incidents took count of all incidents that deviated by more than
250 mHz from nominal, i.e. the frequency dropping to less than 49,75 Hz. It can be
seen that the normal daily maximum number of deviations is limited to about 15 events,
which increased to about 25 events during the peak effect from the rainfall disruption.

3 CONCLUSION
From the above case study, it is obvious that excessive rainfall had a vastly adverse
effect on a fleet of power stations that consequently caused significant disruption to
the power system – culminating in an estimated energy value of 400 GWh not being
served during this period as a result of load shedding.

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 10th CIGRE Southern Africa
Regional Conference
2nd – 4th November 2021
Johannesburg, South Africa

The extent of this disruption was not known before this event, nor would it become
known after the event in the absence of a structured approach of operational research
into its effects. However, it is invariably found following large-scale disruption events
internationally that investigations merely endeavour to uncover direct causes, root
cause, accountabilities and conclude with recommendations to mitigate or avoid future
events of a similar nature.

Such an approach entirely disregards the potential benefit of disruption events.

In this example (case study), a rudimentary analysis yields an understanding that a

cumulative rainfall of up to 100 mm within 10 days has a negligible impact on any of
the performance metrics analysed – a fact that is valuable for the management of a
power station operating in South Africa and that can be used to study and project
disruptive events in the future (with the use of weather prediction models).

And with the rainfall experienced during this and other disruption events, a System
Operator could develop a library of metrics to assist in forecasting, estimation and
contingency planning based on actual information – without the need for assumptions,
voluntary disclosures or testing of complex events with a multitude of variables.

Although the benefits outlined above appear self-evident, it is an approach that is

seldom found in the industry. It requires a fundamental change in the approach of
event management, with dedicated resourcing and policy.

But the potential benefit is vast – both at the level of power generation facilities and of
System Operators alike…

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 10th CIGRE Southern Africa
Regional Conference
2nd – 4th November 2021
Johannesburg, South Africa
BIBLIOGRAPHY

[1] NERSA, The South African Grid Code: Network Code version 10, 2019.

[2] M. Viljoen & J.A. de Kock “Cascade disruption of generation: The hidden gift of
failure” (IEEE Power and Energy Society Conference and Exposition in Africa:
Intelligent Grid Integration of Renewable Energy Resources (PowerAfrica), 2012).

[3] W. FREEBAIRN, “Nuclear plants in Carolinas brace for Hurricane Florence, may
shut in advance”, S&P Global, 2018.

[4] J. WATTS, “Brazil’s worst drought in history prompts protests and blackouts, The
Guardian”, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jan/23/brazil-worst-drought-
history, 2015

[5] I.C. DECKER; M.N. AGOSTINI; A.S. E SILVA and D. DOTTA, Monitoring of a
large scale event in the Brazilian Power System by WAMS, Bulk Power System
Dynamics and Control Symposium, 2010.

[6] M. Viljoen “Cascade disruption of generation: Using adversity for learning &
improvement” (IEEE – Eurocon, 2011).

[7] M. Viljoen & J.A. de Kock “Cascade Disruption of Generation – A Special Focus
on African Grid Vulnerabilities” (IEEE – Africon, 2011).

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